Introductionto the climate change session

Johann Bell

Vulnerability assessment

Supported by

Why are we so concerned?

• Peruvian anchovy

020N

40N

130E 150E

20S

160E120E 140E

170E 170W

180 160W 140W

10S

150W 130W

30S

30N10N • Skipjack tuna

1983 19981972

El NinoLa Nina

El Nino

Anch

ovet

a ca

tch

(mill

ion

t)

How could climate change derail our plans?

• Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development

• Provide sufficient fish for food security

•Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources

Our approachProjected changes to atmospheric

and oceanic conditions

Ecosystems supporting fish

Fish stocks

Implications for economic development, food security and

livelihoods

Adaptations needed to maintain productivity - management and

policies

• Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Germany• Australian Institute of Marine Science• CSIRO• CLS, Satellite Oceanography Division, France• C20 Consulting, Australia• Danish Meteorological Institute • Forum Fisheries Agency• Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority• IFREMER• Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement • James Cook University• LSCE, IPSL, Paris, France• National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)• NOAA• Network of Aquaculture Centres for Asia -

Pacific

• Papua New Guinea National Fisheries Authority• Secretariat of the Pacific Community• Service de la Peche French Polynesia• Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation• Solomon Islands Ministry of Fisheries• SPREP• The WorldFish Center• University of Hawaii• University of Auckland• University of New South Wales• University of Queensland• University of Singapore• University of Tasmania• Vanuatu Fisheries Department• Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA• Western Australia Department of Fisheries

Complex task

*Members of Technical Working Group

Main products1. Book‘Vulnerability of Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Tropical Pacific to Climate Change’

2. Summary for Policy Makers

•Products available October 2011 – to be launched at SPC Conference in Marshall Islands•Followed by a regional workshop in 2012 to translate main findings into priority adaptations

Today’s programmeProjected changes to atmospheric

and oceanic conditions

Ecosystems supporting fish

Fish stocks

Implications for economic development, food security and

livelihoods

Adaptations

x

Today’s programmePresentations before lunch (meet the experts!)Projected changes to Pacific surface climate Janice Lough AIMS

Projected changes to the Pacific Ocean Alex Ganachaud IRD

Vulnerability of freshwater fisheries Peter Gehrke SMEC

Vulnerability of aquaculture Tim Pickering SPC

Vulnerability of coastal fisheries Morgan Pratchett JCU

Vulnerability of oceanic fisheries Patrick Lehodey CLS

(Mangroves, seagrasses, intertidal flats) Michelle Waycott JCU

(Coral reefs) Ove Hoegh-Guldberg UQ

(Food webs for tuna) Robert Le Borgne IRD

(Co-editor) Johanna Johnson C20

Today’s programmePresentations after lunch

Implication for economic development, food security and livelihoods

Johann Bell SPC

Integrating fisheries and climate change initiatives

Johann Bell SPC

Monitoring the impacts on coastal fisheries Lindsay Chapman SPC

Monitoring the impacts for oceanic fisheries John Hampton SPC

Today’s programmeDiscussion groups

Information needed at national level Possible key adaptations

Johann Bell, Johanna Johnson, Lindsay Chapman, Tim Pickering

SPC

Today’s programme

Your session!

•Programme includes plenty of time for questions

Climate change scenariosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007

Global

Timeframe 2035 2100

CO2 emissions Low High Low High

IPCC name B1 A2 B1 A2

2 scenarios and 2 timeframes

Climate change scenariosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007

Global

Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2

CO2 (ppm) ~ 400 ~ 400 ~500 750-800

Global emissions are tracking A2A2 (High)

B1 (Low)

Climate change scenariosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007

Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2

CO2 (ppm) ~ 400 ~ 400 ~500 750-800

2050 A2

Climate change scenarios

•Projections for surface climate, tropical Pacific Ocean and fish stocks

Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2

Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2

2050 A2

•Projected effects on plans for economic development, food security and livelihoods

Vulnerability frameworkFor assessing effects of projected changes on fish stocks