Introduction to the Introduction to the EnergyPLAN modelEnergyPLAN model

Henrik Lund Aalborg University

Denmark

Aalborg University, September October Aalborg University, September October 20052005

PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:

Content: Workshop Content: Workshop aproach…!!aproach…!!

Development aproach..!!Development aproach..!!

1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use 1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD projects and potential use of the model.projects and potential use of the model.

2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it 2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it work? How are the modelling of specific components, work? How are the modelling of specific components, units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and weakness of the model? weakness of the model? – The period between 23 August and 5 September: The period between 23 August and 5 September:

Participants install the model and make familiar with the Participants install the model and make familiar with the model and make som preliminary analyses.model and make som preliminary analyses.

3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. 3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. Results, problems, room for improvements of the Results, problems, room for improvements of the model…!!! Etc..model…!!! Etc..

www.plan.aau.dk/~lundwww.plan.aau.dk/~lund

Download Download EnergyPLANEnergyPLAN

Download Download documentationdocumentation

Links to journal Links to journal articles (results)articles (results)

Links to research Links to research reports (Danish)reports (Danish)

ContentContent

1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis

Electricity Excess Electricity Excess Production Production

Principle Diagram

Small CHP

Steam turbines

Wind

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

MW

Demand

Excess

Reference excess Reference excess productionproduction

Energy 21 (Government Energy Plan 1995)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2005 2015 2030

TW

h

Wind CHP Condensation Demand Heat Pump Surplus

The EnergyPLAN ModelThe EnergyPLAN Model

Energy System Analysis ModelEnergy System Analysis Model

- Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal- Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal

- Main focus: Compare different - Main focus: Compare different regulation systems ability to regulation systems ability to integrate and trade RES (Wind)integrate and trade RES (Wind)

- Simplified modelling of energy - Simplified modelling of energy system. system.

Windows program:Windows program:

EnergyPLAN Model 6.0EnergyPLAN Model 6.0

DemandsFixed electricityFlexible electricity District Heating

Capacities & EfficienciesCHP, Power plant,Heat Pump, BoilerHeat Storage

RESWind and PVCapacities (MW)Distribution FactorSolar Thermal and CSHP (TWh/year)

RegulationMarket prisesMultiplication factorAddition factor Depend factorMarginal productionCost (Import, export)Stabilisation demands

Distribution Data:

Market PricesElectricity District H. Wind

Regulation strategy:1. Meeting heat demand2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand Electricity Market Strategy:Import/export optimisation Critical surplus production:• reducing wind, • replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump• Electric heating and/or Bypass

Results:(Annual, monthly and hour by hour values)

•Heat productions•Electricity production•Electricity import export•Forced electricity surplus production

•Fuel consumption

•Payments from import/export

•CO2 emissions

•Share of RES

Input Output

Solar Industrial CHP Photo Voltaic

FuelTypes of fuelCO2 emission factors Fuel prices

Results:Results:

EnergyPLAN modelEnergyPLAN model

ElectricityElectricity HeatHeat

TechnicalTechnical

MarketMarket

EnergyEnergy System System

WindPower

Fuel

Power Plant

CHP unitCSHP unit

BoilerDH-boiler

HeatPump

HeatStorage

HeatDemand

ElectricityDemand

ImportExport

TransportFlexible

PhotoVoltaic

SolarThermal

EnergyEnergy System 6.2 System 6.2WindPower

Fuel

Power Plant

CHP unitCSHP unit

BoilerDH-boiler

HeatPump

HeatStorage

HeatDemand

ElectricityDemand

ImportExport

TransportFlexible

PhotoVoltaic

SolarThermal

Electro-lyser

Turbine

WaterStorage

PumpWaveEnergy

DESIRE projectDESIRE project

Will include:Will include:

Nuclear power..Nuclear power..

Hydro Power…Hydro Power…

ContentContent

1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis

MethodologyMethodology

Inputs:Inputs:- Reference energy system (Danish CHP)Reference energy system (Danish CHP)- Different share of different RESDifferent share of different RES

Results:Results:- Rate of excess electricity productionRate of excess electricity production- Ability to decrease CO2 emissionAbility to decrease CO2 emission- Ability to exploit exchange on external Ability to exploit exchange on external

electricity marketselectricity markets

Example of ResultsExample of Results::

Excess Electricity ProductionWith and without ancillery service restrictions

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind produktion (TWh)

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (

TW

h)

With

Without

Wind energyWind energy

Input:Input: Data from total Data from total

productions of productions of wind turbines in wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).(West Denmark).

Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MW

h/h

Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MW

h/h

Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MW

h/h

Wind powerWind power

Onshore Wind PowerExcess Electricity Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind produktion (TWh)

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (

TW

h)

Eltra 1996

Eltra 2000

Eltra 2001

Photo voltaicPhoto voltaic

Data from the Data from the Danish Sol300 Danish Sol300 project (Total 267 project (Total 267 installations, app. installations, app. 100 included in 100 included in the data basethe data base

Additional Additional “synthetic data” “synthetic data” from Test from Test Reference YearReference Year

PV production Sol300 2001

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kWh

/h

PV production Sol300 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kWh

/h

Photo VoltaicPhoto Voltaic

Photo VoltaicExcess Electricity Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25

Photo Voltaic produktion (TWh)

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (

TW

h)

Sol300 2002

Sol300 2001

TRY syntetic

Wave PowerWave Power

Calculated from Calculated from measurements of measurements of Wave height and Wave height and periods in the periods in the North SeaNorth Sea

5 percent 5 percent efficiency efficiency

Max installed Max installed capacitycapacity

Wave Power estimated year 1999

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kW

h/h

pr.

m w

av

e f

ron

t

Wave Power estimated year 2001

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kW

h/h

pr.

m w

av

e f

ron

t

Photo VoltaicPhoto Voltaic

Wave PowerExcess Electricity Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25

Photo Voltaic produktion (TWh)

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (

TW

h)

Wave 2001

Wave 1999

Comparison of resultsComparison of results

Different Renewable Energy SourcesExcess Electricity Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25

RES produktion (TWh)

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (

TW

h)

PV 2001

Wave 2001

Wind 2001

ContentContent

1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis

Electricity Excess Electricity Excess Production Production

Principle Diagram

Small CHP

Steam turbines

Wind

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

MW

Demand

Excess

Reference excess Reference excess productionproduction

Energy 21 (Government Energy Plan 1995)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2005 2015 2030

TW

h

Wind CHP Condensation Demand Heat Pump Surplus

ReferenceReferenceÅr 2030År 2030

Production: July Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1

13

25

37

49

61

73

85

97

109

121

133

145

157

Hours

MW

PP

CHP

CSHP

Wind

Production: October Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1

13

25

37

49

61

73

85

97

109

121

133

145

157

Hours

MW

PP

CHP

CSHP

Wind

Demand: January Week

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1

12

23

34

45

56

67

78

89

10

0

111

12

2

13

3

14

4

15

5

16

6

Hours

MW

Export

Heat Pump

Transport

Consumer

Production: January Week

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1

14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

Hours

MW

PP

CHP

CSHP

Wind

Demand: April Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

81

91

10

1

111

12

1

13

1

14

1

15

1

16

1

Hours

MW

Export

Heat Pump

Transport

Consumer

Production: April Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1

14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

Hours

MW

PP

CHP

CSHP

Wind

Demand: July Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

81

91

10

1

111

12

1

13

1

14

1

15

1

16

1

Hours

MW

Export

Heat Pump

Transport

Consumer

Production: July Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1

14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

Hours

MW

PP

CHP

CSHP

Wind

Demand: October Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

81

91

10

1

111

12

1

13

1

14

1

15

1

16

1

Hours

MW

Export

Heat Pump

Transport

Consumer

Production: October Week

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1

14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

HoursM

W

PP

CHP

CSHP

Wind

Different Energy SystemsDifferent Energy SystemsSurplus electrcicty production(Percent of electrcicty demand)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100

Wind input (per cent)

SE

P (

per

cen

t)

Reference

Surplus electrcicty production(Percent of electrcicty demand)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100

Wind input (per cent)

SE

P (

per

cen

t)

Reference

Ref50KV

RefTrans

Electricity Balance and Electricity Balance and Grid StabilityGrid Stability

DG (Distributed Generation)

RES (Renewable

Energy Sources)

Centralised CHPand

Power Plants

Demand0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Active ComponentsNon Active Components

System 1:System 1:Activating DG CHP-unitsActivating DG CHP-units

DG (Distributed Generation)

RES (Renewable

Energy Sources)

Centralised CHPand

Power PlantsDemand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Active ComponentsNon Active Components

System 2: System 2: CHP-units and Heat PumpsCHP-units and Heat Pumps

DG (Distributed Generation)

RES (Renewable

Energy Sources)

Centralised CHPand

Power PlantsDemand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Active ComponentsNon Active Components

Heat Pumps

System 3: Activating System 3: Activating RES via additional demandRES via additional demand

DG (Distributed Generation)

RES (Renewable

Energy Sources)

Centralised CHPand

Power Plants

Demand0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Active ComponentsNon Active Components

Heat Pumps

Wind Power

Electricityfor

Transport

Principle results of Principle results of technical analysestechnical analyses

Surplus Electricity ProductionIncluding grid-stbilisation

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100Wind power per cent

Per

cen

t

Ref

DKVreg

+HPreg

Trans

ElectricityDemand

41,1 TWh

17,7 TWh

ExcessElectricity8,4 TWh

Coal26.5 TWh

Oil70,9 TWh

Biomass34,5 TWh

Natural Gas68,4 TWh

FuelTotal200,3TWh

31,8 TWh

39,2 TWh

District HeatingGrid loss

25 % HeatDemand

62,9 TWh

Transport50,7 TWh

RefineryEtc.

17,4 TWh

CHP andPower plants

WindPower

41,1 TWh

31,9 TWh

31,0 TWh

17,4 TWh

50,7TWh

39,9TWh

92,3TWh

Household &Industry

Danish Reference 2020

ElectricityDemand

37,0 TWh

62,3 TWh

Biomass49,4 TWh

FuelTotal49,4TWh

14,7 TWh

53,5 TWh

District HeatingGrid loss

25 % HeatDemand

56,8 TWh

Transport(50,7 TWh)equvalent

CHP, HP andPower plants

WindPower

37,0 TWh

42,8 TWh

14,0 TWh18,0 TWh

31,4TWh

Household &Industry

Danish Alternative 20?0

Solar thermal2,1 TWh

PhotoVoltaic

17,8 TWh

H2

H2Electrolyser

ContentContent

1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model

2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies

3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis

4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis

Modelling of NordPool Modelling of NordPool

- Standard system price hour by hour - Standard system price hour by hour distribution (based on recent years)distribution (based on recent years)

- Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and - Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and “Normal” years (Hydro in Norway)“Normal” years (Hydro in Norway)

- Modelling of influence for DK trade and - Modelling of influence for DK trade and splitting in price areas due to bottle-splitting in price areas due to bottle-neck in transmissionneck in transmission

- Modelling of influence from Trade on the - Modelling of influence from Trade on the German Boarder.German Boarder.

Reference regulation Reference regulation systemsystem

(CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)(CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)

Trade income (Compared to "No trade", "No wind")

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind Input (TWh)

Mil

ion

DK

K Dry-year

Normal

Wet-year

Average

Wind Power Wind Power Production Production

CostsCosts

220 220 DKK/MWhDKK/MWh

Trade income (Incl. Wind production costs)

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind input (TWh)

Mil

ion

DK

K

CO2=100 kr/t

Marginal trade income and wind production costs

0

100

200

300

400

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind input (TWh)

DK

K/M

Wh

Income

Cost

Different Production Costs Different Production Costs and CO2 Pricesand CO2 Prices

Marginal trade income and wind production costs

0

100

200

300

400

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind input (TWh)

DK

K/M

Wh

100 kr/t CO2

High Cost

Middle

Low Cost

250 kr/t CO2

0 kr/t CO2

Feasibility of Alternative Feasibility of Alternative Regulation SystemsRegulation Systems

Trade Income: Alternative Regulation Systems

-2000

-1000

0

1000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind Input (TWh)

Mil

ion

DK

K Reference

350 MW HP

CHPregB

CHPregBnet

Feasibility of Alternative Feasibility of Alternative Regulation SystemsRegulation Systems

Marginal trade income

150

200

250

300

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Wind Input (TWh)

Mio

lio

n D

KK Reference

350 MW HP

CHPregB

CHPregBnet

Costs

Conclusions:Conclusions:

If wind production exceeds 5 TWh (equal to 20%) investments in CHP regulation and Heat Pumps are feasible.

Such investments at the same time makes Such investments at the same time makes wind power more feasible. For production wind power more feasible. For production costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power raises from 6 TWh in the reference system raises from 6 TWh in the reference system to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.

Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis

Increase in Heat Pump CostsIncrease in Heat Pump Costs Variations in CO2 paymentVariations in CO2 payment Change in Wind Power costsChange in Wind Power costs Change in fuel costsChange in fuel costs Change in CO2 influence on NordpoolChange in CO2 influence on Nordpool Change in Nordpool average priceChange in Nordpool average price Change in import/export to GermanyChange in import/export to Germany Change in Nordpool price variationsChange in Nordpool price variations

Only small changes in the Only small changes in the main resultsmain results

Trade Income: Alternative Regulation Systems

-2000

-1000

0

1000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind Input (TWh)

Mil

ion

DK

K Reference

350 MW HP

CHPregB

CHPregBnet Marginal trade income

150

200

250

300

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Wind Input (TWh)

Mio

lio

n D

KK Reference

350 MW HP

CHPregB

CHPregBnet

Costs

Introduction to the Introduction to the EnergyPLAN modelEnergyPLAN model

Henrik Lund Aalborg University

Denmark

Aalborg University, September October Aalborg University, September October 20052005

PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I: