Investing in Swiss Equities
May 25, 2016
Stefan Frischknecht, CFA Fund Manager of The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc.
The Fund is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “SWZ”.
Agenda
Case for Swiss equities
Attractiveness of Swiss vs. European equities
Brexit
Outlook
Portfolio positioning and changes
Why consider The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”)
Appendix:
The Adviser: Schroders
Investment Philosophy and Process
Performance
1
Source: Schroders. The Fund is managed by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. (“SIMNA Inc.”). The Fund’s sub-adviser is Schroder Investment Management North America Ltd (“SINMA Ltd”).
The case for Swiss equities
Swiss stocks leading in global competitiveness Very high percentage of Swiss index members are global leaders
1 Source: Schroder research and company websites, Forbes 2014, EvaluateMedTech October 2014, BloombergNews 17.7.2014, Chemweek 23.8.2013, GlobalCement 9.12.2013, Leffingwell 15.5.2015, Staffingindustry 16.10.2013, Reuters 19.5.2015. The views and forecasts contained herein are those of the Schroders Swiss Equities team based on information that they believe to be reliable.
3
Name Global rank within market Market
Nestle 1 Food
Novartis 2 Drugs
Roche 1 Diagnostics
UBS 1 Wealth management
ABB 2 Power transmission / distribution
Richemont 1 Jewelry
Syngenta 1 Crop protection
Swiss Re 2 Reinsurance
LafargeHolcim 1 Cement
Givaudan 1 Flavours / fragrance
Adecco 1 Staffing
Swatch 1 Watches
SGS 1 Inspection / testing
At points over the past few years, approx. 2/3 of large caps in the Swiss Market Index (“SMI”) have been ranked first or second within their markets on a global basis.1
Approximately 40% of Swiss mid caps, too.
How is global leadership of Swiss stocks possible? Switzerland offers an attractive business environment
4
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2015-16, rank out of 140 economies. See also: http://www.prosperity.com The Legatum Institute, a London based think tank, on November 2, 2015, published its annual global prosperity index, Switzerland ranked number 2 based on 89 variables split into 8 subindexes (economy, entrepreneurship &opportunity, governance, education, health, safety & security, personal freedom, and social capital).
The World Economic Forum has been looking into drivers of competitiveness and prosperity in 140 economies. Amongst others, the following help explain the strong position of Switzerland: - innovation - infrastructure - education - labor market efficiency - macroeconomic environment - business sophistication
Swiss companies are innovation leaders Per capita patent fillings highest of Europe
Source: Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015 (EU)
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IN RU
BR
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BG
MK TR LV LT CN
HR PL
SK EL
HU ES
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MT PT
AU IT CY
CZ
NO EE SI
EU
28 AT
FR BE IS IE UK LU NL
DE FI JP DK
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US
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KC
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• Modest Innovators • Moderate Innovators • Innovation Followers • Innovation Leaders
Global leadership results in high profitability
6
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg as of December 31, 2014
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SPISwitzerland
S&P 500USA
MSCI Worldglobal
MSCI Europe FTSE 350UK
TopixJapan
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Profit Margin
In a textbook manner, Swiss company leadership transforms into margins
High profitability has led to long-term outperformance
7
Source: Bloomberg, performance in USD as of December 31, 2015. Performance shown is past performance which is no guarantee of future results.
Performance difference: 3.6% p.a.
Swiss Equities: 10.5% p.a. in USD
MSCI World All Country Total Return Index: 6.9% p.a. in USD
-100%
100%
300%
500%
700%
900%
1100%
1300%
1500%
1700%
Cumulative stock market return
Swiss Performance Index (SPI)
MSCI World All Country Total Return Index
-200%0%
200%400%600%800%
1000%
Performance difference SPI - MSCI World All Countries TR
Swiss equities significantly outperformed global stocks for over 25 years
Swiss companies are geographically diversified Swiss companies regional sales exposure
8
Source: HSBC, July 3, 2014; *UBS February 10, 2015, data based on averages.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Switzerland Europe (E300)* UK US
Europe ex domestic
MEA Unclassified
APAC
Americas
Domestic
Europe ex domestic
MEA Unclassified
APAC
Americas
Domestic
Europe ex domestic
MEA
Unclassified
APAC
Americas
Domestic
Europe
Unclassified
APAC
Americas ex US
Domestic
Attractiveness of Swiss vs. European Equities
Swiss versus European Equities Swiss P/E ratio higher than European, but no reason to worry
10
Source: Bloomberg as at May 19, 2016; Thomson Datastream, UBS as at April 13, 2016. P/E = price to earnings ratio.
Country Index P/E est. 2016
Switzerland SMI 16.6
UK FTSE 100 16.5
France CAC 40 14.4
Germany DAX 12.5
Spain IBEX 35 13.7
Italy FTSE MIB 14.7
Greece AEX 16.8
Europe STOXX 600 15.5
US S&P 500 17.4
Japan NIKKEI 16.1
Brazil IBOV 13.3
Swiss versus European Equities Switzerland scores best re: dividend yield minus government bond yield
11
Source: Bloomberg, as at March 31, 2016. For illustrative purposes only. Not intended to serve as any recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Yields fluctuate.
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Bra
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Sha
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i
US
A
Can
ada
Japa
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Aus
tralia
Hon
g K
ong
UK
Italy
Ger
man
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Spa
in
Fran
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Net
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Sw
itzer
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Dividend yield - 10 yr government bond yield Dividend yield
Investment Outlook Global comparison of earnings expecations
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Source: Bloomberg: as at March 31, 2016, all earnings converted into US dollars.
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240Swiss Earnings Estimates (SPI Index)US Earnings estimates (S&P 500)UK Earnings Estimates (FTSE 100 Index)Eurozone Earnings Estimates (Euro Stoxx 50)
Brexit
Brexit Implications for Switzerland
How could the British vote on June 23, 2016 change the Swiss – EU relationship?
We explore three scenarios:
A) If Great Britain stays, the EU could become more demanding in its negotiations with Switzerland
This would not be positive for the Swiss economy
But, due to low levels of domestic sales exposure, Swiss listed stocks should not suffer too much
Thanks to European subsidiaries, Swiss listed companies should not be cut off from market access
B) Great Britain stays but EU becomes less “uniform”
This would be positive for the Swiss model of “EU association” and for the Swiss economy
A less “uniform” EU could make business more complicated, but for all companies, not only Swiss
C) The referendum could become the first domino piece in an “EU disintegration”
This would be negative for equity markets although Switzerland could get short term benefit of “flight to safety”
Our preferred scenario is none of the above: pro-market reforms in EU countries. However, we see this as a rather unlikely scenario.
14
Views expressed reflect those of the portfolio management team as of today’s date and do not necessarily reflect the views of Schroders. These views are subject to change.
Outlook
Investment Outlook
Global stock market valuations have become more expensive since 2010
But equity markets likely to benefit further from attractive / increasing dividends
Swiss spread of dividend yield vs. 10 year government bond yield highest among major stock markets
Swiss stocks have also delivered superior earnings growth
We believe that Swiss equities will be among the best performing equity markets long-term - global leaders of industry - over past 10 years led to superior earnings growth (which is likely to persist) - in spite of strong Swiss franc (despite making news headlines in 2015, it is rather “business as usual”)
Simultaneously, investors should be aware of shorter-term risks/volatility (due to politics, central banks, economic data, contagion from other asset classes, global tensions etc.)
16
Views expressed reflect those of the portfolio management team as of today’s date and do not necessarily reflect the views of Schroders. These views are subject to change.
Portfolio positioning and changes
Top Ten holdings absolute
Portfolio positioning As of March 31, 2016
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Source: Schroders. Portfolio composition is subject to change over time. Stocks shown do not represent any recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Name Absolute weight
Novartis 11.5%
Nestlé 11.5%
Roche 11.2%
Lindt & Sprüngli (Reg.) 4.8%
UBS 4.3%
Syngenta 4.0%
Richemont 3.3%
Swatch (Reg.) 2.7%
Logitech 2.6%
Burckhardt Compression 2.6%
Total 58.5%
Top/bottom relative weights Name Relative weight
Lindt & Sprüngli (Reg.) +4.2%
Burckhardt Compression +2.5%
Logitech +2.4%
Belimo +2.4%
Swatch (Registered) +2.4%
Zurich Insurance -2.9%
Roche -3.2%
ABB -3.3%
Novartis -3.6%
Nestlé -8.3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Private EquityCash
Health Care ProvidersBasic Resources
Automobiles & PartsUtilitiesMedia
Medical SuppliesReal Estate
RetailTravel & Leisure
TelecommunicationsFinancial Services
TechnologyInsurance
BiotechnologyChemicals
Medical EquipmentConstruction & Materials
Personal & Household GoodsIndustrial Goods & Services
BanksFood & BeveragePharmaceuticals
Swiss Helvetia FundSPI
Portfolio positioning ICB classification
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Source: Schroders, JP Morgan, Bloomberg, March 31, 2016. Portfolio composition is subject to change over time.
SWZ SPI Rel. % 22.8% 29.7% -6.9% 17.2% 21.7% -4.6% 10.2% 9.1% 1.1%
7.9% 9.3% -1.4% 6.0% 4.1% 1.8% 5.1% 4.2% 0.9% 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.3% -1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 1.7% 3.2% 7.0% -3.8% 3.1% 1.0% 2.1% 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% -0.1% 0.0% 1.3% -1.3% 0.0% 0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 3.7% 0.0% 3.7%
Portfolio positioning Changes in positioning YTD 2016
20
Source: Schroders, Year-to-date through March 31, 2016. Stocks shown do not represent any recommendation to buy or sell any security.
New Positions
Julius Baer
Swiss Re
Valiant
Increased Positions
Aryzta
Cembra Money Bank
Credit Suisse
Sunrise
Syngenta
UBS
Decreased Positions
Actelion
Belimo
Bucher Industries
DKSH
Dufry
Evolva
Implenia
Kuros Biosciences
Lonza
Nestlé
OC Oerlikon
Sold Positions
Adecco
Risk measures March 31, 2016
Portfolio positioning Key statistical measures
21
Source: Schroders, Charles River, Prism, March 31, 2016. Please refer to the back of this presentation for definitions.
Swiss Helvetia Fund Q1 2016
Tracking error 3.1%
Beta 0.93
Relative VaR (95%) 1.4%
Volatility 11.6%
Active share 42.9%
Portfolio turnover
Swiss Helvetia Fund
Turnover in % of AuM Q1 2016 12%
Turnover calculation method: (Buys + Sells) / (average AuM)
Why Consider The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc.
The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc.
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Allows US investors to access to the fund management team’s capabilities
The fund has better diversification compared to the Swiss Performance Index (SPI)
A closed-end fund allows a long-term investment horizon (no unknown future in-/outflows)
Currently the share price trades at a discount to NAV
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, March 31, 2016. Views expressed reflect those of the portfolio management team as of today’s date and do not necessarily reflect the views of Schroders. These views may change.
Why invest in Swiss equities through a closed–end fund?
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Swiss Performance Index
Swiss Helvetia Fund
Portfolio weight SWZ SPI
Top 3 positions 34% 49%
Top 5 positions 43% 58%
Top 10 positions 59% 71%
Conclusion
Conclusion
Swiss listed companies are often global leaders
Their level of internationalisation makes them less dependent on domestic economy (they can outgrow the Swiss economy, which is solid but mature)
Swiss equities have a history of outperformance versus global and European equities
They are highly attractive from a long-term total return perspective
The Fund is currently a way to invest in Swiss stocks at a discount
Schroders has a proven philosophy, process and track record for Swiss equities
25
Views expressed reflect those of the portfolio management team and do not necessarily reflect the views of Schroders. These views are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Appendix
The investment adviser: Schroders
Schroders A worldwide team dedicated to asset management
Focus Asset management is our sole
business Experience and independence Over 200 years of financial services
experience Founding Schroder family controls
47.9%1 of voting equity Resources Well established teams in all key
investment regions Over 450 portfolio managers and
analysts worldwide Over 3,800 personnel in 28 countries Financial strength $466.9 billion in AUM globally $772.4 million surplus capital available
for building the business
28
Source: Schroders. Statistics are as of March 31, 2016. 1As of December 31, 2015.
Schroders offices1
Key A Alternatives (Property/EMD/Commodities) E Equities FI Fixed Income MA Multi-Asset Investment centres (locations where Schroders has investment capabilities)
Argentina 4 (FI) Bermuda Brazil 4 (E/FI) Cayman Islands
Americas
UK and Channel Islands UK 361 (A/E/FI/MA) Channel Islands 4 (A)
Denmark France 9 (A/FI) Germany 11 (A) Gibraltar Italy 1 (MA) Luxembourg
Europe and Middle East Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland 31 (A/E/FI/MA) UAE 3 (E) South Africa
Asia Australia 31 (E/FI/MA) China 5 (E) BoComm JV Hong Kong 34 (E/FI/MA) India Axis JV Indonesia 12 (E/FI) Japan 19 (E) Singapore 38 (E/FI/MA) South Korea 9 (E/MA) Taiwan 13 (E/FI/MA)
Chile Mexico USA 97 (A/E/FI/MA)
Schroders has had an established investment management presence since 1923 in the US A registered Investment Adviser with the SEC
SIMNA manages $89 billion for clients across a range of asset classes
AUM of $3.2 billion across 16 open-end mutual funds and $20 billion across 16 sub-advisory portfolios
Resources and infrastructure dedicated to managing, servicing and marketing 40-Act registered portfolios
Dedicated U.S.-based compliance and legal teams to oversee regulatory requirements
Existing structure in place for compliance & client service specialists to coordinate with regional investment offices
About Schroders
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Schroders Investment Management North America
Source: Schroders, Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. (SINMA) assets include both SIMNA and SIMNA Ltd, both SEC registered entities as of March 31, 2016.
Schroders was selected by the independent directors of the Fund in 2014 for its track record, investment philosophy & process, its team and experience1
Track record of Swiss equity team started on Jan 1, 1999
Proven and easy to understand process
Fundamental stock picking (bottom-up)
Robust portfolio construction and risk management (top-down)
Style focus on value, quality and size
About the portfolio management team
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The Fund is managed by a Zurich based, experienced Swiss equity team
Source: Schroders 1. The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. press release, April 18, 2014 (www.swzfund.com)
Investment Philosophy and Process
Investment Philosophy
32
3 main alpha Sources
Source: Schroders
1. Value Definition: Classical Value Multiple Analysis (P/E, P/B, P/CF etc.) and Proprietary DCF Model Evidence: Kenneth R. French Database for Switzerland
2. Quality Definition: Quality of Balance Sheet, Management, Product/Service and shareholder value creation Evidence: Own empirical analysis re: debt/equity
3. Size (Small and Mid Cap) Definition: Stocks outside the large cap “Swiss Market Index” (SMI) Evidence: Performance of sub-indices within the all cap “Swiss Performance Index” (SPI)
Investment Philosophy Avoid high Debt
33
Source: Bloomberg, Schroders, April 30, 2015. All returns in CHF.
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Lowest net debt/equity (1. Quartile)
2. Quartile
3. Quartile
Highest net debt/equity (4. Quartile)
Balance sheet strength
Investment Process
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5 recurring steps
Source: Schroders
1. Filter
2. Screen
3. bottom-up Research
4. Top-down Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
5. Sell Discipline
1. Filter universe (209 stocks) into investable stocks (~125)
2. Screen for best ideas: focus list of 60-80 names; rest goes on watch list
3. Detailed fundamental research to come-up with stock recommendations
4. Construct portfolio with 30-40 names and monitor risks
5. Sell discipline a inherent part of investment process
209 stocks
60-80 30-40
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Investment Process II Stock example: Implenia
Valuation
Fair value: CHF 66 (upside 35%)
Multiples: Est. P/E (2016) 10.9, Div yield 3.7%
Quality (Summary)
Competitive Analysis +/- Leading construction services company in CH
Shareholder Value Creation + 9% p.a. book value per share increase over 8y
Management Quality + Seasoned and strongly committed management
Balance Sheet Quality + Solid balance sheet, net cash; 27% goodwill/equity
35
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, June 30, 2014. Data in CHF. For illustration only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks mentioned.
Book value per share plus cumulative dividends
1.
2.
3. bottom-up Research 4.
5.
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40
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Investment Process Sell Discipline
Having a clear selling discipline is important for seeking to achieve consistent performance.
A stock is sold when:
Price target is reached
Negative change of investment case (environment, positioning of firm, management)
We find a better investment opportunity
36
Source: Schroders
1.
4.
5. Sell discipline 2.
3.
Performance
Net Asset Value
Performance
38
NAV and price performance in USD, as of March 31, 2016
Performance in USD % FY 2015 Q1 2016
NAV SWZ 2.89 -3.73
Swiss Performance Index, SPI 2.58 -5.58
Difference +0.31 +1.85
Source: Schroders, JPM for fund performance and Bloomberg for Index performance; year-to-date performance as at March 31, 2016, reflecting NAV information available as of the date of publication; subject to subsequent change. Please consult quarterly, semi-annual and annual reports for NAV updates post date of filing. Performance shown is past performance which is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. Principal value and investment returns will fluctuate so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance for less than one year is not annualized.
Performance in USD % FY 2015 Q1 2016
Share price SWZ 1.41 -3.60
Swiss Performance Index, SPI 2.58 -5.58
Difference -1.17 +1.98
Share price
Important Information
39
The Fund is a closed-end investment product. Common shares of the Fund are only available for purchase/sale on the NYSE at the current market price. An investment in the Fund is not a deposit of a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency.
This presentation is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
The returns presented represent past performance and are not necessarily representative of future returns, which may vary. The value of investments can fall as well as rise as a result of market or currency movements.
All investments, domestic and foreign, involve risks, including the risk of possible loss of principal. The market value of a fund’s portfolio may decline as a result of a number of factors, including adverse economic and market conditions, prospects of stocks in the portfolio, changing interest rates, and real or perceived adverse competitive industry conditions. Investing overseas involves special risks including among others risks related to political or economic instability, foreign currency (such as exchange, valuation, and fluctuation) risk, market entry or exit restrictions, illiquidity, and taxation. The Swiss securities markets have substantially less trading volume than the U.S. securities markets. Additionally, the capitalization of the Swiss securities markets is highly concentrated. Securities of some companies located in Switzerland will be less liquid and more volatile than securities of comparable U.S. companies. This combination of lower volume and greater concentration in the Swiss securities markets may create a risk of greater price volatility than in the U.S. securities markets.
The views and forecasts contained herein are those of the Schroders Swiss Equities team and are subject to change. The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of facts obtained from third parties. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.
Definitions: Active share represents the proportion of stock holdings in the fund that is different from the composition found in the benchmark. Beta measures the sensitivity of the fund to the movements of its benchmark. Volatility is measured by Standard deviation, which is the risk or volatility of an investment’s return over a particular time period; the greater the number, the greater the risk. Tracking error is the difference between the price behavior of a position or a portfolio and the price behavior of a benchmark. VaR is Value at Risk, a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial exposures.
For more information, visit www.swzfund.com
Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. 875 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022-6225 (212) 641-3800 www.schroders.com/us