Investment Case
Armor US Equity Index ETFArmor US Equity Index ETF
Over the 30 years ending 12/31/19, the S&P 500 Equity Index experienced a nearly 10% annualized return. However, markets do not always rise in a straight line. For example, from March 2000 through October 2002, the S&P 500 declined 51%. From October 2007 through March 2009, the S&P 500 plummeted 58%. However, from the market’s bottom in March 2009, the S&P 500 rose nearly 500% through 12/31/19.
Hence, the return that may have been realized if you invested in an S&P 500 equity index fund would have varied based on your entry and exit point.
A fear experienced by many investors is that they may experience sharp investment losses. That fear may prevent some from investing in equities, thereby, missing out on potentially attractive returns.
What if there was a way to invest in equities that offered the prospect of lower volatility and risk while potentially providing downside protection?
The Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR) looks to do just that. How?
The Effects of Market Declines
Downside protection, or avoiding losses, has been key to realizing strong long-term returns. The effects of market downturns may substantially reduce investment returns.
As proof, notice the chart below, which highlights the performance of the S&P 500 over the 10, 20, and 30 years ending 12/31/19. Over the past 20 and 30 years, the S&P 500 has experienced a 6.2% and 9.9% annualized return, respectively. But, notice the substantial difference in returns by excluding the worst 10 and 20 days over the time periods.
We are not suggesting that investors pursue a strategy that attempts to steer their investments in and out of equities in order to avoid down days. We are merely highlighting the deleterious effects of losses and the potential benefi ts of downside protection on investment returns.
13.5
6.2
9.9
14.3
8.9
12.3
14.3
12.0
14.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
10 year 20 year 30 year
An
nu
aliz
ed R
etu
rn
S&P 500 Returns- Jan 1989 - Dec 2019
S&P 500 Excl 10 worst Excl 20 worst
Source: Daily Returns from S&P Dow Jones IndicesPast performance does not guarantee future results. The referenced
index is shown for informational purposes only and is not meant to represent the Fund. Investors cannot directly invest in an index.
Armor US Equity Index ETF
Larger Gains Needed to Offset Losses
Additionally, as the chart below shows, once the market has declined, larger gains are needed to offset the loss. For example, it takes a 33% gain to offset a 25% loss or a 100% gain to offset a 50% loss.
It May Take a Long Time to Recoup Your Losses
After the market declined following the fi nancial crisis in 2007/8, it took 49 months for investors in the S&P 500 to recoup their losses.
Thus, an investment strategy that focuses on risk reduction or low volatility may provide downside protection, which has the potential to lead to stronger, long-term gains.
What May Help Investors Potentially Avoid or Mitigate Losses in the Equity Market?
Introducing the Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR)
The Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR) seeks to provide investment returns that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the Armor US Equity Index. The index is designed to provide exposure to the sectors of the US equity markets that the fund’s index provider believes are most likely to generate positive returns while providing downside protection and experiencing lower volatility relative to the US equity market.
Investment Process
Individual sectors of the US equity market are evaluated utilizing a proprietary market performance indicator (MPI) to estimate those which may offer strong, long-term performance potential with lower expected downside risk. Only sectors which score well based on the MPI are included in the index. If no sectors appear attractive based on this metric, the index will invest primarily in US Treasury obligations.
Low-cost ETFs which provide exposure to the sectors selected by the model are included in the index. ETFs may provide broad sector exposure in a cost-effi cient manner and allow the strategy the liquidity to react quickly to changes in market sentiment.
The index is rebalanced monthly to refl ect timely insights into market and sector risk and return.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Bre
akev
en R
etu
rn (%
)
Investment Loss (%)
Loss Reduction is Key to Long-Term Gain
11.1%
33.3%
62.6%
100%
50%
38.5%
25%
10%
For illustrative purposes only. Not meant to represent the Fund.
Armor US Equity Index ETF
Why Investors May Want to Consider ARMR Now?
US Equities are Trading Near All-Time Highs
Since bottoming in March 2009, the S&P 500 advanced nearly 500% through 12/31/19.
US Equities are Not Cheap
The S&P 500, while not at an extreme, is not cheap by standard valuation metrics. When using metrics such as price to earnings (P/E) and price to book (P/B), the S&P 500’s valuation is above its long-term averages.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1/6
/88
1/6
/89
1/6
/90
1/6
/91
1/6
/92
1/6
/93
1/6
/94
1/6
/95
1/6
/96
1/6
/97
1/6
/98
1/6
/99
1/6
/00
1/6
/01
1/6
/02
1/6
/03
1/6
/04
1/6
/05
1/6
/06
1/6
/07
1/6
/08
1/6
/09
1/6
/10
1/6
/11
1/6
/12
1/6
/13
1/6
/14
1/6
/15
1/6
/16
1/6
/17
1/6
/18
1/6
/19
Inde
x L
evel
S&P 500 Jan 1989 - Dec 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1/1/
192
7
1/1/
193
2
1/1/
193
7
1/1/
194
2
1/1/
194
7
1/1/
195
2
1/1/
195
7
1/1/
196
2
1/1/
196
7
1/1/
1972
1/1/
1977
1/1/
198
2
1/1/
198
7
1/1/
199
2
1/1/
199
7
1/1/
20
02
1/1/
20
07
1/1/
20
12
1/1/
20
17
P/E
S&P 500 P/E
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
12/1
/99
12/1
/00
12/1
/01
12/1
/02
12/1
/03
12/1
/04
12/1
/05
12/1
/06
12/1
/07
12/1
/08
12/1
/09
12/1
/10
12/1
/11
12/1
/12
12/1
/13
12/1
/14
12/1
/15
12/1
/16
12/1
/17
12/1
/18
P/B
S&P 500 P/B
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
12/1
/19
04
12/1
/19
09
12/1
/19
14
12/1
/19
19
12/1
/19
24
12/1
/19
29
12/1
/19
34
12/1
/19
39
12/1
/19
44
12/1
/19
49
12/1
/19
54
12/1
/19
59
12/1
/19
64
12/1
/19
69
12/1
/19
74
12/1
/19
79
12/1
/19
84
12/1
/19
89
12/1
/19
94
12/1
/19
99
12/1
/20
04
12/1
/20
09
12/1
/20
14
12/1
/20
19
Sch
iller
P/E
S&P 500 Schiller P/E
Source: Daily Returns from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The referenced index is shown for informational purposes only and is not meant to represent the Fund. Investors cannot directly invest in an index.
Source: multpl.com, Retrieved 12/2019. Charts are illustrating typically referenced valuation measures for the S&P 500 versus their historical averages. The charts are meant to highlight that equity market valuations are high by historical measures.
Armor US Equity Index ETF
Aging Economic Expansion
As the chart to the right highlights, the current economic expansion, at 126 months as of the end of 2019, is the longest in modern history.
Historically, the peak to trough returns for the S&P 500 that are associated with recessions have averaged nearly -31% since the end of World War II.
While we are not predicting a recession, it is likely that one will occur sometime in the future.
As a result, it may be reasonable for investors to think about taking a defensive position in at least a portion of their portfolio.
Where ARMR May Fit in Your Portfolio• Equity Exposure – ARMR may be used as a
portion of your portfolio’s U.S. equity allocation.• Defensive Equity Exposure – ARMR may be
appropriate for investors seeking risk reduction or mitigation.
• Factor Exposure – ARMR may be appropriate for investors seeking low volatility equity exposure.
Business Cycle Peak Business Cycle Trough S&P 500 Peak S&P 500 Trough S&P 500 ReturnAugust 1929 March 1933 September 1929 June 1932 -86.19%
May 1937 June 1938 March 1937 March 1938 -54.47%
February 1945 October 1945 February 1945 March 1945 -6.36%
November 1948 October 1949 May 1946 June 1949 -29.61%
July 1953 May 1954 January 1953 September 1953 -14.82%
August 1957 April 1958 August 1956 October 1957 -21.63%
April 1960 February 1961 August 1959 October 1960 -13.85%
December 1969 November 1970 November 1968 May 1970 -36.06%
November 1973 March 1975 January 1973 October 1974 -48.20%
January 1980 July 1980 February 1980 March 1980 -17.07%
July 1981 November 1982 November 1980 August 1982 -27.27%
July 1990 March 1991 July 1990 October 1990 -20.36%
March 2001 November 2001 March 2000 October 2002 -50.50%
December 2007 June 2009 October 2007 March 2009 -57.69%
Post WWII - Average -30.64%
All - Average -34.58%
Source: Statista, as of 12/31/19
Source: National Bureau of Economic ResearchThe S&P 500 return represents the performance of the S&P 500 associated with the business cycle. The peak (trough) of the equity market may occur before or after the peak (trough) of the business cycle.
126120
10692
7358
4539
3736
2412
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
June 2009 - OngoingMar 1991 - Mar 2001Feb 1961 - Dec 1969
Nov 1982 - July 1990Nov 2001 - Dec 2007
March 1975 - Jan 1980Oct 1949 - July 1953
May 1954 - Aug 1957Oct 1945 - Nov 1948Nov 1970 - Nov 1973
April 1958 - April 1960July 1980 - July 1981
Length in MonthsEconomic Expansion
(844) 880-3837
www.armoretfs.com
Summary
Avoiding or mitigating losses may help investors realize strong, long-term performance. Once losses are realized, it takes larger gains to get back to even and may take an extended period of time.
With an aging economic expansion and bull market in equities, coupled with above-average stock market valuations, investors may want to consider defensive strategies for their portfolio.
The Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR) may provide an attractive vehicle for investors to gain access to a defensive equity strategy.
Disclosures
Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Fund, please call (844) 880-3837 or visit our website at www.armoretfs.com. Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing.
The Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The Fund’s return may not match or achieve a high degree of correlation with the return of the Index. To the extent the Fund’s investments are concentrated in or have signifi cant exposure to a particular issuer, industry or group of industries, or asset class, the Fund may be more vulnerable to adverse events affecting such issuer, industry or group of industries, or asset class than if the Fund’s
investments were more broadly diversifi ed. Issuer-specifi c events, including changes in the fi nancial condition of an issuer, can have a negative impact on the value of the Fund.
Shares of the Funds may be sold throughout the day on the exchange through any brokerage account. However, shares are not individually redeemable, and may only be redeemed directly from the Fund by Authorized Participants, in very large creation/redemption units. There can be no assurance that an active trading market for shares of an ETF will develop or be maintained. Shares may trade above or below NAV.
A new or smaller fund is subject to the risk that its performance may not represent how the fund is expected to or may perform in the long term. In addition, new funds have limited operating histories for investors to evaluate and new and smaller funds may not attract suffi cient assets to achieve investment and trading effi ciencies.