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INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco...

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1 1Q07 results and comments INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24 th May 2007
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Page 1: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

1

1Q07 results and commentsINVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE

24th May 2007

Page 2: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

2

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu plc. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.

Page 3: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

3

1. Introduction

2. Focus: ITM listing

3. Operational review

4. Commercial review

5. Financial review

Page 4: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

4

1. Introduction

Virach MakaranithirojHead of Investor Relations

Page 5: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

5

Highlights of 1Q07 – the figures

Coal sales

4.3 MT

Down 2.2 MT -34% Q-Q

Coal

Bt 5,783 m

Bt 799 m

Bt 113 m

Power

Bt 917 m

Bt 1,522 m

Bt 1,081 m

Revenue

EBIT

Net income

Total

Bt 6,700 m

Bt 2,321 m

Bt 1,194 m

Q-Q

-34%

0%

+4% *

* +21% before non-recurring items

Page 6: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

6

2. Focus: ITM listing

Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer

Page 7: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

7

Introduction

Banpu planning listing/IPO of Indonesian coal interests on Jakarta Stock Exchange (‘JSX’)

Intention is to list assets through PT Indo Tambangraya Megah(‘ITM’) by Q4 2007

Main reasons for listing:

Facilitate further growth in Indonesia

Raise capital at asset level

Increase accountability

Enhance value transparency JORONG

TRUBAINDO

INDOMINCO10.5mtpa

5mtpa

KALIMANTAN

3.5mtpa

Bontang coal terminal

0 200 km

BHARINTO

Project:firstoutput 2009

Location of Banpu’sIndonesian coal assets

KITADIN-EMBALUT

Suspended operation

Page 8: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

8

ITM structure

Centralink

BMS

95%

ITM

100%

Indominco Trubaindo Kitadin Barasentosa Bharinto Jorong

PT Indominco Mandiri

(CCOW Gen.I)

PT Truba Indo Coal Mining

(CCOW Gen II)

PT Kitadin

(KP)

PT Barasentosa

(Non active)

PT BharintoEkaama

(CCOW Gen II)

PT Jorong BarntamaGreston

(CCOW Gen II)

The “Indocoal” assets

BMC

100%

PT CentralinkWisesaInternational

PT Indo TambangrayaMegah

Banpu Minerals Singapore

Acquired Bharintoin 2004

100% 90% 100% 100% 99% 95%

82 Mt

287 MtResources

KALIMANTAN

Output 07f: 10.5 Mt

61 Mt

300 MtResources

KALIMANTAN

Output 07f: 5 Mt

17 Mt

151 MtResources

KALIMANTAN

Reserves

Output 07f: 0 Mt?

33 Mt

39 MtResources

SUMATRA

Reserves29 Mt

218 MtResources

KALIMANTAN

Reserves

First output 2009

15 Mt

44 MtResources

KALIMANTAN

Output 07f: 3.5 Mt

Banpu Minerals Company (Banpu PLC 100%)

Jorong was acquired in 1997 and will be merged into ITM in 2007 prior to the IPO

Output 19 Mt

Reserves 204 Mt

At the time of the IPO, ITM will consist of three operating mines (Indominco, Trubaindoand Jorong) and one important growth project (Bharinto).

ITM will also have one suspended operation (Kitadin).

Figures as at 31st Mar 2007DIVESTED MAY 2007

Resources 1,000 Mt

Reserves Reserves Reserves

Page 9: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

9

ITM profile

ITM 19 Mt

Bumi 53 Mt

Adaro 34 Mt

Kideco 18 Mt

Berau 11 Mt

PTBA 10 Mt

Indonesian coal producers: 2006 output

20 Mt

15 Mt

10 Mt

5 Mt

01 02 03 04 05 062

3

1

2

5

2

3

5

3

3

8

2

3

8

2

2

3

10

2

4

6.5

9.0

11.513.0

14.0

19.0

Jorong

Indominco

Kitadin

Trubaindo

2001-06 cagr 25%

ITM historical output

Source: AWR Lloyd

Source: Banpu

Leading coal producer: third largest in Indonesia based on 2006 production (see graph)

Strong markets:

Strong demand from East Asian coal importing countries

Competitive supply to new Asian markets (China, India…)

Indonesian government policy 10GW coal-fired power by 2010

Own coal terminal: by 2008 shipments up to 18Mtpa

Strong growth track-record: output growth 25% pa 2001-06.

Potential for growth through acquisitions

Page 10: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

10

ITM corporate governance

RATIONALE: ACCOUNTABILITY

Provides ‘window’ to fair value of Indonesian coal assets

Imposes professional discipline on ITM management to report on performance in transparent manner

ITM management will be directly accountable to the market: strategy and allocation of capital must be justified (focus on NPV returns)

Enhances local corporate citizenship

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE STANDARDS

• Board of Commissioners (appointed/ dismissed by shareholders)

• Board of Directors (at least one non-exec) and corporate secretary

• Separate audit, risk management and nomination committees

• HR and organisation policy

• Finance, accounting and budgeting policy

• Information systems, reporting structure

JSX requirements

Banpu’s own reporting standards

(e.g. JORC reserves standards, best

practice investor relations, corporate

governance…)

Page 11: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

11

3. Operational review

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 12: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

12

Estimated 2007 production 21m tonnes (excl. China)

Indominco-Bontang10.5 mt

Jorong3.5 mt

Thailand2 mt

Daning3.2 mt

(Banpu 12.5%)

Trubaindo5 mt

100% basis

Hebi1.4 mt(Banpu 40%)

Kitadin

Page 13: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

13

Indo and Thai coal production review and outlook

Indominco-BontangCV 6250 - 6500 kcal/kg

2.9

3Q06

10.5:1SR 10.3:1

2Q 3Q

SR 6.9

0.5

4Q062Q

0.6

3Q

SR 4.7

Kitadin-EmbalutCV 5800 kcal/kg

JorongCV 5300 kcal/kg

LP-2 / CMMCCV 4000 - 5000 kcal/kg

2.5

4Q06

0.8

4Q06

TrubaindoCV 6550 – 7200 kcal/kg

10.3:1

6.9

4.7

0.6

1Q07

2Q

1.2

3Q

2Q06

0.4

2Q 3Q 4Q06

0.8

4Q06

0.80.6

SR 4.2 4.2

SR 5.4

1.5

2.6

1Q07

0.8

2Q07F

0.4

2Q07F

0.8

2Q07F

10.5:1

4.8

4.2

4.4

5.4

2.6

0.8

1.0

5.4

4.3

Maintain high stripping ratio due to favorable

market price

Seasonal fluctuation is anticipated

Output will gradually rise in later periods

Under mine closure stage in this year

1Q07

0.2

0.7

1Q07

0.6

4.4

5.4

Production discontinued after mine suspension

2Q07F

2.5

Page 14: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

14

China coal operations

HZTM(Hebi Zhong Tai Mining)

Henan Province, PRCCV 5300 – 6800 kcal/kg(Banpu 40%)

DaningShanxi Province, PRCCV 6800 – 7300 kcal/kg(Banpu 12.5%)

Progress:New washing plant has raised PCI outputSafety system (ventilation, gas testing methods) has been upgradedUndergoing expansion to 2 mtpa

Challenges:Strict management of seam gas compliance

Progress:2nd longwall has passed regulatory testing and government inspectionVentilation and degas systems have been installedRail spur under construction

Challenges:Tighter safety regulations imposed in Shanxi

1

2

1. Flotation (washing) plant at HZTM 2. Rail spur construction at Daning

Page 15: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

15

Power Thailand: BLCP

50% Banpu-owned 1,434MW coal-fired IPP project in Map Ta Put Industrial Estate is now in full operation

Unit 1 COD : 1st October 2006

Unit 2 COD : 1st February 2007

Equity income to Banpu :

1Q07 Bt 1,277 m

4Q06 Bt 664 m

Page 16: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

16

Power China

* Unaudited figures

** Including transportation

*** Including Expansion

Sales* (USD m)

EBITDA (USD m)

Utilization (Hours)

Power tariff (RMB/kwh)

Coal price**(RMB/t)

100% basis

4Q06

4Q06

4Q06

9.6 3.6 1,803 0.42 412

7.0 2.6 2,339 0.34 336

8.9 2.3 0.32 4411,846

LuannanHebei Province, PRCPower 100MW; Steam 128tph(Banpu 100% )

ZoupingShandong Province, PRCPower 100MW***;Steam 490tph(70%)

ZhengdingHebei Province, PRCPower 48MW;Steam 180tph(100%)

EBITDA margin recovered after

completing maintenance of heat pipeline

First phase upgrade project (hot water) completed;

Second phase underway

Second phase expansion completed; third phase

(25MW) underway

1Q07

1Q07

1Q07

9.1 4.0 1,669 0.42 419

6.5 2.2 2,110 0.34 376

8.1 1.7 1,681 0.32 478

8.2 3.6 1,508 0.42 4131Q06

4.5 0.8 1,148 0.34 3701Q06

7.6 1.8 1,852 0.31 4751Q06

Page 17: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

17

4. Commercial review

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 18: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

18

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q02

2Q02

3Q02

4Q02

1Q03

2Q03

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07e

BJI

Weighted avg

Indominco

Average Selling Prices (ASP)

ASP 1q07 : $36.17 / tonne

ASP 2007e : c.$38 / tonne

US$/Tonne

BJI*

May 17, 2007 :

$53.85

Note: *Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) based on CV 6,700 kcal/kg GAD from Australia to JapanSource: Barlow Jonker

Page 19: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

19

Geographic distribution of customers

Coal sales by value: Bt 5,750m in 1Q07

Philippines6%Japan

28%

China15%

Korea5%

Taiwan18%

Indonesia3%

Europe4%

Thai17%

India7%Other

4%

Focus on quality of sales

North & East Asia increasingly core with Chinese growth direct to end users

Keeping Thai customers replacing Thai production by Indonesian

Impact of LT sales to IPPs in Indonesia, China and Philippines lessens downsides

Page 20: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

20

Coal sales by source and destination

Coal sales volume:

4.32 MT in 1Q07

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Thai mines

Jorong

Kitadin

Indominco-Bontang

Trubaindo

Kor

ea

Thai

land

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Eur

ope

Oth

ers

Mt

24%

16%

13%

6%

10%

3%

5%

Chi

na

3%

Phi

lippi

nes

Japa

n

Taiw

an

16%

4%

Focus on quality of sales

Thai market share maintained through replacement of domestic with imported Indonesian coal

Jorong remains supplier to nearby markets with increased Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines share with less to India

Indominco-Bontang becoming attractive to new customers who previously bought lower grade coals (e.g. China)

Trubaindo is positioned in premium markets and as an upgrading blend additive

Page 21: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

21

9%

4%

87%

Indicative 2007 coal sales

Approx. 21 MT

Contracted & Priced

Contracted & Unpriced

Uncontracted Fully sold on Thai and most Indonesian low CV grades

No rush to commit remaining high CV grades, more positive market expected

Chinese import demand is expected to continue strong from end last year

Page 22: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

22

5. Financial review

Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer

Page 23: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

23

Sales revenues : coal and power

Note : Revenues from other businesses (e.g. industrial minerals) are not included

(658)

Units: Bt. million

1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 Indominco Kitadin Jorong Trubaindo Coal Thai4Q06

(1,551)

(284)(968)

(1)

1Q07

7,512 7,1708,418

6,667

BPIC

(15)

Sales volume lowered by 0.5mt

10,141-34%Q on Q

-11%Y on Y

Sales volumedeclined 0.9mtdue to a 10-day suspension at Bontang Port

Page 24: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

24

4,225

1,439

679

319

591

4,904

2,529

921

668

188189

10

637

1,561

3,353

Thai mines

Kitadin-Embalut

Jorong

Trubaindo

Indominco

Bt. million GPM Sales revenue

Thai mines

Jorong

Trubaindo

Kitadin-Embalut

Indominco40%39%40%

35%

36%12%

16%

13%46%

39%

34%

35%

1Q07

4Q06

1Q06

Avg. gross margin 1Q07 at 38%

42%33%

Page 25: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

25

Consolidated EBITDA

Units: Bt. million

+76%Y on Y

(1,358)+499

+527 +4

SG&A declined with sales

Royalty decreased with revenues

Gross

profitSG&A Equity Other

incomesD&A4Q06 1Q07

(1)3,187

1,818

3,195

1Q06

Sales volume declined 34% QoQ

+337

Royaltyincomes

COD of BLCP Unit 2 in February

Page 26: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

26

Net profit variance

+5 +4+46

(174)

Units: Bt. million

EBIT4Q06

1,194

1Q06 1Q07

+8

FXFinancial charges

Tax Non-recurring

746

1,143

Others

+162

+60%Y on Y

+4%Q on Q

FX loss due to strengthening of

Thai Baht

Page 27: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

27

Medium term (2007-08) CAPEX plans: $469million

Units: USD million

9345

120 Power Thailand & neighbor

Coal ChinaCoal Indonesia

45

235

Committed Pre-feasibility ConceptualStatusCoal projects

Power projects

Bontang Port 66

BLCP 93China Power 30

Bharinto 45 Indonesia 50China 120

China 60Hongsa 5

The capital expenditure figures shown above are indicative only and do not include estimates for maintenance or sustaining capital expenditure. The figures shown in the ‘Conceptual’ column should be treated with extra caution and are likely to change as new projects are conceived, some are cancelled and as pre-feasibility analyses generate modified estimates of capital expenditure requirements.

Power China30

189

50

60

5

66

Page 28: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

28

0.730.66

0.690.62

0.52

0.34

2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07

91

Balance sheet

Debt structureNet D/E (Times)

Net gearing (%)

As end of March 2007

20%25%

34%

41%38%

42%

Floating 44% Fixed 56%

Page 29: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

29

Question & Answer

Page 30: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

30

APPENDICES

Page 31: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

31

Operating profit

Units: Bt. million

Sales revenues – Power (BPIC) 917Cost of sales (4,220)Gross profit 2,480 -35% -11%

GPM 37%

1Q07 QoQ % YoY %

6,700 -34% -12%

Note: * Including other business

Sales revenues – Coal

Total sales revenues*

5,786 -37% -21%

Gross profit - Coal 2,220 -38% -18%Gross profit – Power (BPIC) 260

GPM – Power (BPIC) 28%GPM - Coal 38%

-2% 254%- -

-5% 357%

931(6,324)3,838

38%

4Q06

10,1629,231

3,563275

29%39%

259(4,809)2,773

37%

1Q06

7,5827,323

2,71657

22%37%

Page 32: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

32

Operating profit

Units: Bt. million

Gross profit 2,480 2,773 -35% -11%GPM 37% 37%SG&A (826) (989)Royalty (671) (781)

Dividend income – Coal & Power - -Other income 31 66EBIT 2,321 1,124 0% 106%

EBITDA 3,195 1,818 0% 76%

1Q07 1Q06 QoQ % YoY %

EBIT - Coal 799 1,080 -44% -26%EBIT - Power 1,522 44

Income from associates 1,306 55

70%

3,83838%

(1,326)(1,008)

-32

2,316

3,187

4Q06

1,419897

779

3,359%

Page 33: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 24th May 2007 - Banpu · PT Indo Tambangraya Megah ... PT Indominco Mandiri (CCOW Gen.I) PT Truba Indo Coal Mining ... • Finance, accounting and budgeting

33

Units: Bt. million

EBITInterest expenses (273)Financial expenses (46)Income tax (core business) (263)Minorities (22)Net profit before extra items 1,716Non-recurring items* (149)Income tax (non-core business) (237)Net profit before FX 1,330 97%FX translations (137)Net profit 1,194 60%EPS (Bt/share) 4.39

Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses

YoY %1Q07

Net profit

238%

(230)(53)

(300)(33)508169

-

67770

7462.74

1Q06

20%

4%

QoQ %

21%

2,321 1,124 0% 106%

(266)(57)

(546)(30)

1,417(311)

-1,106

371,1434.21

4Q06

2,316


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