INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOKCREDIT SUISSE INVESTOR CONFERENCESEPTEMBER 2021Brett Salt, Chief Marketing Officer
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FX
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AR
EP
RIC
E(G
BP)
MARKETS IN 2021
FXPO IRON ORE PRICE (65% FE)
CORPORATE PRESENCE
• LONDON LISTED (PREMIUM LISTING) SINCE 2007
• SHARE STRUCTURE
- SHARE PRICE: £3.901
- MARKET CAPITALISATION: US$3.18 BILLION1
- MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS2: FEVAMOTINICO (50%), SCHRODERS (5%), ACADIAN, BLACKROCK AND M&G (ALL 3%)
• OFFICES IN KYIV, SWITZERLAND (BAAR), LONDON, SINGAPORE, DUBAI, TOKYO AND SHANGHAI
MARKET PRESENCE
• THIRD LARGEST EXPORTER OF IRON ORE PELLETS
GLOBALLY
• SALES VOLUME IN 1H 2021: 5.6MT
• PRODUCER OF HIGH GRADE IRON ORE PELLETS
(1H21: 97% OF PRODUCTION)
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Closing price as of 6 September 20212 As of 31 July 2021
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INTRODUCTION TO FERREXPO
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MARKET REVIEW:IRON ORE PRICE(1H 2021)
SUPPLY SIDE CONSTRAINTS RELATING TO SHORT-TERM INSTABILITY IN AUSTRALIAN AND BRAZILIAN
MINE PRODUCTION.
GOVERNMENT STIMULUS, RELATING TO COVID-19 RECOVERY, DRIVING END-USER DEMAND FOR STEEL, PARTICULARLY HIGH GRADE IRON ORES.
LIMITED NEW SUPPLY – GENERALLY LOWER GRADE
ORES FROM BROWNFIELDS OPERATIONS.
STAKEHOLDER FOCUS ON CARBON EMISSIONS
WIDENING HIGH GRADE PREMIUMS.
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021
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IRON ORE PRICE (PLATTS 65% FE)
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MARKET REVIEW:IRON ORE PRICE(JULY-AUGUST 2021)
AUGUST 2021: C.25% SELL OFF IN IRON ORE
PRICING ANTICIPATED IN MARKET FORECASTS AND
FORWARD CURVES.
SEASONAL WEAKNESS: CHINESE DEMAND FOR
IMPORTED IRON ORE TYPICALLY WEAKER DURING
SUMMER MONTHS (DOMESTIC SUPPLY).
GOVERNMENT MEASURES: RECENT REMOVAL OF
EXPORT TAX REBATES IN CHINA TO CURB STEEL
OUTPUT.
ADDITIONAL SUPPLY: BROWNFIELDS PROJECTS IN
AUSTRALIA, INCREASED INDIAN EXPORTS AND HIGH
SILICA SUPPLY FROM BRAZIL.Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021
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IRON ORE PRICE (PLATTS 65% FE)
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MARKET REVIEW:PELLET PREMIUMS(2021)
1H 2021: ATLANTIC PELLET PREMIUM2 RISES TO
US$54/T REFLECTING DEMAND FOR DIRECT CHARGE
MATERIAL AS STEELMAKERS INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY.
3Q 2021: FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MARKET CONDITIONS
(SETTLED JUNE 2021).
4Q 2021: DEMAND SET TO REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS
(RELATIVE TO 2020) WITH STEELMAKERS LOOKING TO
MAINTAIN PRODUCTIVITY AND CONTINUED FOCUS ON
CARBON EMISSIONS.
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Source: S&P Platts. 2 Note Atlantic Pellet Premium applies to ex-China markets.
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OUTLOOK: NEAR TERM
STEEL PRICES REMAIN
STRONG – SUPPORTING
IRON ORE PRICES
EUROPE AND EX. CHINA
ASIA ECONOMIES
CONTINUE TO RECOVER
PELLET MARKET TO
REMAIN TIGHT – SUPPORT
FOR PELLET PREMIUMS
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Source: Metal Bulletin2 Source: World Steel Association
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2020 2021
HR
C p
ric
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sia
(U
SD
/t)
HR
C p
ric
e, E
uro
pe
(E
uro
/t)
HOT ROLLED COIL PRICES1
N.Europe JKT region China
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Ste
el P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Yo
Y)
CRUDE STEEL OUTPUT (YOY)2
EU (27) Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021 2022
Ex
pe
cte
d n
et
exp
ort
s (
MT
)
EXPECTED NEW SUPPLY (CRU)
Fines Lump Pellets
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sia
(U
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/t)
HR
C p
ric
e, E
uro
pe
(E
uro
/t)
HOT ROLLED COIL PRICES1
N.Europe JKT region China
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OUTLOOK: LONGER TERM
DECARBONISATION –NEAR TERM
2030 EMISSIONS TARGETS
DRIVING DEMAND FOR
DIRECT CHARGE MATERIAL
(PELLETS) TODAY.
DEMAND FOR HIGH
GRADE IRON ORE
NEW IRON ORE SUPPLY
INCREASINGLY LOW GRADE
AND/OR LOW QUALITY.
DECARBONISATION –LONGER TERM
NET ZERO EMISSIONS
TARGETS INCREASING CASE
FOR HIGHER GRADE (67% FE) DIRECT REDUCTION PELLETS.
LONG-TERM DEMAND
FOR PELLETS
GLOBAL PELLET CONSUMPTION
TO GROW BY 67MT BY 2030 (+13%), COMPARED TO A
124MT REDUCTION IN FINES
CONSUMPTION OVER SAME
PERIOD.1
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Source: CRU
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
AVERAGE I/O PEER GROUP
SCOPE 1+2+3 INTENSITY
(SOURCE: COMPANY REPORTS)
FXPO SCOPE 1+2+3 INTENSITY
(2020)T
OTA
LC
O2E
EM
ISS
ION
SIN
TE
NS
ITY
(TC
O2
/ T
PR
OD
UC
ED
)
FXPO: REDUCED CARBON FOOTPRINT (SCOPE 1+2+3 BASIS)
CONCLUSIONS
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1 IRON ORE FINES PRICES CURRENTLY TAPERING FROM RECORD LEVELS, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS.
2 VOLATILITY IN IRON ORE FINES PRICING TO PERSIST UNTIL YEAR END.
3 STEEL PRICES AND MARGINS REMAIN ELEVATED, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR IRON ORE.
4 NEW IRON ORE FINES SUPPLY TYPICALLY LOWER GRADE, LOWER QUALITY MATERIAL.
5 NEW IRON ORE PELLET SUPPLY TO REMAIN CONSTRAINED, SUPPORTING PELLET PREMIUMS.
6 DECARBONISATION PROVIDES LONG-TERM VALUE IN HIGH QUALITY IRON ORE PELLETS.
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021
APPENDICES
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021
0.37 LTIFR
SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE
PRODUCTION, OPERATIONS
CONTINUE TO PERFORM AHEAD OF
HISTORIC SAFETY AVERAGE (0.98).
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KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS (1H 2021)
YIELD
DISCIPLINED CAPITAL ALLOCATION
ALLOWING FOR BOTH INVESTMENT
IN GROWTH AND SHAREHOLDER
RETURNS.
+147%UNDERLYING EBITDA IN 1H 2021 INCREASING TO US$868 MILLION, REFLECTING MARKET STRENGTH
AND INVESTMENT IN HIGH-GRADE
IRON ORE.
GROWTH
INITIAL CONTRACTS SIGNED FOR
NEXT PHASE OF INVESTMENT, TO
DELIVER FURTHER 3MT OF PELLET
CAPACITY.
6%REDUCTION
DELIVERING CARBON REDUCTIONS
TODAY, CUTTING CARBON
FOOTPRINT PER TONNE IN 1H 2021, ON TOP OF 16% REDUCTION
IN 2020.
QUALITYFIRST LONG TERM CONTRACT
SIGNED FOR DR PELLETS, AS NEW
PRODUCT OFFERING CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP.
Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021
DISCLAIMER
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation or inducement to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in Ferrexpo Plc (the “Company”, and together with its subsidiaries the “Group”) or any other securities, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating there to, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company or the Group.
The release, presentation, publication or distribution of this document, in whole or in part, in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
Neither the Company nor its affiliates nor advisers are under an obligation to correct, update or keep current the information contained in this document or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law or regulation.
No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company’s directors, officers, employees or affiliates or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’s members, directors, officers, employees or affiliates nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions.
Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking. The statements typically contain words such as “aim”, “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “goal”, “intend”, “may”, “plan”, “projected”, “seek”, “target”, “will” and words of similar substance. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could mean actual results or events differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risk, uncertainties and assumptions could materially adversely affect the Group and the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation or warranty (express or implied) that such trends or activities will continue in the future. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. You should not place reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.
Alternative Performance Measures
Throughout this document a range of financial and non-financial measures are used to assess the Group’s performance, including a number of financial measures that are not defined or specified under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards), which are termed ‘Alternative Performance Measures’ (APMs). Management uses these measures to monitor the Group’s financial performance alongside IFRS measures to improve the comparability of information between reporting periods. These APMs should be considered in addition to, and not as a substitute for, or as superior to, measures of financial performance, financial position or cash flows reported in accordance with IFRS. APMs are not uniformly defined by all companies, including those in the Group’s industry. Accordingly, it may not be comparable with similarly titled measures and disclosures by other companies.
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Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021