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INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK CREDIT SUISSE INVESTOR CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 2021 Brett Salt, Chief Marketing Officer
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Page 1: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOKCREDIT SUISSE INVESTOR CONFERENCESEPTEMBER 2021Brett Salt, Chief Marketing Officer

Page 2: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

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IRO

NO

RE

PR

ICE

(65

% F

E)

FX

PO

SH

AR

EP

RIC

E(G

BP)

MARKETS IN 2021

FXPO IRON ORE PRICE (65% FE)

CORPORATE PRESENCE

• LONDON LISTED (PREMIUM LISTING) SINCE 2007

• SHARE STRUCTURE

- SHARE PRICE: £3.901

- MARKET CAPITALISATION: US$3.18 BILLION1

- MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS2: FEVAMOTINICO (50%), SCHRODERS (5%), ACADIAN, BLACKROCK AND M&G (ALL 3%)

• OFFICES IN KYIV, SWITZERLAND (BAAR), LONDON, SINGAPORE, DUBAI, TOKYO AND SHANGHAI

MARKET PRESENCE

• THIRD LARGEST EXPORTER OF IRON ORE PELLETS

GLOBALLY

• SALES VOLUME IN 1H 2021: 5.6MT

• PRODUCER OF HIGH GRADE IRON ORE PELLETS

(1H21: 97% OF PRODUCTION)

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Closing price as of 6 September 20212 As of 31 July 2021

2

INTRODUCTION TO FERREXPO

Page 3: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

3

MARKET REVIEW:IRON ORE PRICE(1H 2021)

SUPPLY SIDE CONSTRAINTS RELATING TO SHORT-TERM INSTABILITY IN AUSTRALIAN AND BRAZILIAN

MINE PRODUCTION.

GOVERNMENT STIMULUS, RELATING TO COVID-19 RECOVERY, DRIVING END-USER DEMAND FOR STEEL, PARTICULARLY HIGH GRADE IRON ORES.

LIMITED NEW SUPPLY – GENERALLY LOWER GRADE

ORES FROM BROWNFIELDS OPERATIONS.

STAKEHOLDER FOCUS ON CARBON EMISSIONS

WIDENING HIGH GRADE PREMIUMS.

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021

0

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300

2019 2020 2021

IRO

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PR

ICE

(US

$ P

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TO

NN

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IRON ORE PRICE (PLATTS 65% FE)

Page 4: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

4

MARKET REVIEW:IRON ORE PRICE(JULY-AUGUST 2021)

AUGUST 2021: C.25% SELL OFF IN IRON ORE

PRICING ANTICIPATED IN MARKET FORECASTS AND

FORWARD CURVES.

SEASONAL WEAKNESS: CHINESE DEMAND FOR

IMPORTED IRON ORE TYPICALLY WEAKER DURING

SUMMER MONTHS (DOMESTIC SUPPLY).

GOVERNMENT MEASURES: RECENT REMOVAL OF

EXPORT TAX REBATES IN CHINA TO CURB STEEL

OUTPUT.

ADDITIONAL SUPPLY: BROWNFIELDS PROJECTS IN

AUSTRALIA, INCREASED INDIAN EXPORTS AND HIGH

SILICA SUPPLY FROM BRAZIL.Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021

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(US

$ P

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IRON ORE PRICE (PLATTS 65% FE)

Page 5: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

5

MARKET REVIEW:PELLET PREMIUMS(2021)

1H 2021: ATLANTIC PELLET PREMIUM2 RISES TO

US$54/T REFLECTING DEMAND FOR DIRECT CHARGE

MATERIAL AS STEELMAKERS INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY.

3Q 2021: FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MARKET CONDITIONS

(SETTLED JUNE 2021).

4Q 2021: DEMAND SET TO REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS

(RELATIVE TO 2020) WITH STEELMAKERS LOOKING TO

MAINTAIN PRODUCTIVITY AND CONTINUED FOCUS ON

CARBON EMISSIONS.

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Source: S&P Platts. 2 Note Atlantic Pellet Premium applies to ex-China markets.

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LL

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$ P

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Page 6: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

6

OUTLOOK: NEAR TERM

STEEL PRICES REMAIN

STRONG – SUPPORTING

IRON ORE PRICES

EUROPE AND EX. CHINA

ASIA ECONOMIES

CONTINUE TO RECOVER

PELLET MARKET TO

REMAIN TIGHT – SUPPORT

FOR PELLET PREMIUMS

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Source: Metal Bulletin2 Source: World Steel Association

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HR

C p

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e, A

sia

(U

SD

/t)

HR

C p

ric

e, E

uro

pe

(E

uro

/t)

HOT ROLLED COIL PRICES1

N.Europe JKT region China

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

Ste

el P

rod

uc

tio

n (

Yo

Y)

CRUDE STEEL OUTPUT (YOY)2

EU (27) Japan

0

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30

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Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2021 2022

Ex

pe

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et

exp

ort

s (

MT

)

EXPECTED NEW SUPPLY (CRU)

Fines Lump Pellets

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pe

(E

uro

/t)

HOT ROLLED COIL PRICES1

N.Europe JKT region China

Page 7: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

7

OUTLOOK: LONGER TERM

DECARBONISATION –NEAR TERM

2030 EMISSIONS TARGETS

DRIVING DEMAND FOR

DIRECT CHARGE MATERIAL

(PELLETS) TODAY.

DEMAND FOR HIGH

GRADE IRON ORE

NEW IRON ORE SUPPLY

INCREASINGLY LOW GRADE

AND/OR LOW QUALITY.

DECARBONISATION –LONGER TERM

NET ZERO EMISSIONS

TARGETS INCREASING CASE

FOR HIGHER GRADE (67% FE) DIRECT REDUCTION PELLETS.

LONG-TERM DEMAND

FOR PELLETS

GLOBAL PELLET CONSUMPTION

TO GROW BY 67MT BY 2030 (+13%), COMPARED TO A

124MT REDUCTION IN FINES

CONSUMPTION OVER SAME

PERIOD.1

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 20211 Source: CRU

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

AVERAGE I/O PEER GROUP

SCOPE 1+2+3 INTENSITY

(SOURCE: COMPANY REPORTS)

FXPO SCOPE 1+2+3 INTENSITY

(2020)T

OTA

LC

O2E

EM

ISS

ION

SIN

TE

NS

ITY

(TC

O2

/ T

PR

OD

UC

ED

)

FXPO: REDUCED CARBON FOOTPRINT (SCOPE 1+2+3 BASIS)

Page 8: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

CONCLUSIONS

8

1 IRON ORE FINES PRICES CURRENTLY TAPERING FROM RECORD LEVELS, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS.

2 VOLATILITY IN IRON ORE FINES PRICING TO PERSIST UNTIL YEAR END.

3 STEEL PRICES AND MARGINS REMAIN ELEVATED, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR IRON ORE.

4 NEW IRON ORE FINES SUPPLY TYPICALLY LOWER GRADE, LOWER QUALITY MATERIAL.

5 NEW IRON ORE PELLET SUPPLY TO REMAIN CONSTRAINED, SUPPORTING PELLET PREMIUMS.

6 DECARBONISATION PROVIDES LONG-TERM VALUE IN HIGH QUALITY IRON ORE PELLETS.

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021

Page 9: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

APPENDICES

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021

Page 10: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

0.37 LTIFR

SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE

PRODUCTION, OPERATIONS

CONTINUE TO PERFORM AHEAD OF

HISTORIC SAFETY AVERAGE (0.98).

10

KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS (1H 2021)

YIELD

DISCIPLINED CAPITAL ALLOCATION

ALLOWING FOR BOTH INVESTMENT

IN GROWTH AND SHAREHOLDER

RETURNS.

+147%UNDERLYING EBITDA IN 1H 2021 INCREASING TO US$868 MILLION, REFLECTING MARKET STRENGTH

AND INVESTMENT IN HIGH-GRADE

IRON ORE.

GROWTH

INITIAL CONTRACTS SIGNED FOR

NEXT PHASE OF INVESTMENT, TO

DELIVER FURTHER 3MT OF PELLET

CAPACITY.

6%REDUCTION

DELIVERING CARBON REDUCTIONS

TODAY, CUTTING CARBON

FOOTPRINT PER TONNE IN 1H 2021, ON TOP OF 16% REDUCTION

IN 2020.

QUALITYFIRST LONG TERM CONTRACT

SIGNED FOR DR PELLETS, AS NEW

PRODUCT OFFERING CONTINUES

TO DEVELOP.

Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021

Page 11: INVESTOR PRESENTATION: MARKET OUTLOOK

DISCLAIMER

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation or inducement to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in Ferrexpo Plc (the “Company”, and together with its subsidiaries the “Group”) or any other securities, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating there to, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company or the Group.

The release, presentation, publication or distribution of this document, in whole or in part, in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

Neither the Company nor its affiliates nor advisers are under an obligation to correct, update or keep current the information contained in this document or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law or regulation.

No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company’s directors, officers, employees or affiliates or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’s members, directors, officers, employees or affiliates nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions.

Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking. The statements typically contain words such as “aim”, “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “goal”, “intend”, “may”, “plan”, “projected”, “seek”, “target”, “will” and words of similar substance. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could mean actual results or events differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risk, uncertainties and assumptions could materially adversely affect the Group and the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation or warranty (express or implied) that such trends or activities will continue in the future. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. You should not place reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.

Alternative Performance Measures

Throughout this document a range of financial and non-financial measures are used to assess the Group’s performance, including a number of financial measures that are not defined or specified under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards), which are termed ‘Alternative Performance Measures’ (APMs). Management uses these measures to monitor the Group’s financial performance alongside IFRS measures to improve the comparability of information between reporting periods. These APMs should be considered in addition to, and not as a substitute for, or as superior to, measures of financial performance, financial position or cash flows reported in accordance with IFRS. APMs are not uniformly defined by all companies, including those in the Group’s industry. Accordingly, it may not be comparable with similarly titled measures and disclosures by other companies.

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Ferrexpo plc | Credit Suisse Conference, Investor Presentation, September 2021


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