2020 1
2020
2019 2018
2019
2020
BETA 2020
2020
A. 2020
B. ALPHA
C.
D. : ; 10 2020 2.50%-
3.50%
E.
F.
(Emil Nguy)
(Raymond Gui)
(Suvir Mukhi)
(James Hu)
(Desmond Kuang)
( )
AGNES FONG
+852 2169 2179
WANNI LIN
+852 2169 2181
KEVIN LO
+852 2169 2176
FRANCO ZHANG
+86 21 6850 1516 x205
2020 1
Page | 2
A. 2020
2019
VIEWPOINT
2009 9%
2019
1
1:
BB
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19
Asia - BB-rated Europe - BB-rated US - BB-rated
2020 1
Page | 3
B
JP Morgan
2
2: 10
P/E spread
, JP Morgan
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19
Asia - B-rated Europe - B-rated US - B-rated
2020 1
Page | 4
信用基本面
2016
3
3:
JP Morgan
2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asian Investment GradeNet Debt / EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA / Int Exp (RHS)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asian Non-Investment Grade
Net Debt / EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA / Int Exp (RHS)
2020 1
Page | 5
B. ALPHA
2020 - ALPHA
2019 2020
4
BB B
4: 2019 BB B
JP Morgan
2020
2020 ALPHA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19
Spread Differential (RHS)JACI BB SpreadJACI B SpreadAverage Spread Differential (RHS)
2020 1
Page | 6
2019
“
”
2020 50
2/3 1/2
50 2-3
2020 BB
B
2019
2020
2019
2020
2020 2017
2020 5
2020 1
Page | 7
5:
Ticker
2020
(USD
Million)
(USD)
DONGXU CCC+ 2017 342 68.5
HCELEC C+ 2017 500 54.3
JINANC CCC+ 2017 298 72.5
QHINVG CCC- 2017 300 59.9
SDCOKI CCC+ 2017 500 51.3
TJREOM NR 2017 100 55.0
YIDCHL CCC 2017 300 74.0
YIHUGR CCC- 2017 250 57.5
YUHUNG CCC+ 2017 300 75.5
TOTAL
2,890
2020
2019
2019
2020
12
ALPHA
2020 1
Page | 8
C.
- 2020
2%
2020 2019
2019 3
2020 3
2019
PMI
6
6: PMI
JP Morgan
10 2020
1.5-2.5%
2020
2020 1
Page | 9
-
2019 YoY GDP 6.0% 2018
GDP 6.6%
GDP 2019 3
14.5% 13%
PMI
2020 GDP
5.8-6.0%
2020 10%
2020 1
Page | 10
D. : ; 10
2020 2.50%-3.50%
: ; 2020
10 11
30-50 bps 15 10 2.6-5.4%
GDP 6.0-15.0% 2018
10 3.88% 3.23% 2019
10 3.0-
3.4% 2016 GDP 6.7%
2.6% GDP
7
7:
3.17% 1.78% -0.36% -0.07%
1.4% 2.3%
1.3%
( ) 0.7%
+1.77% -0.52% -1.66% -0.77%
JP Morgan
2019 5
8
2020 10
100 bps 2.5-3.5%
2020 1
Page | 11
8:
2020 1
Page | 12
E.
2020 2019 5%
2019 100 2018
2020
2019 3 2020 3 7% 5.6%
2019 135
9:
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
1-A
pr-
16
1-Jun-…
1-Aug-…
1-Oct-…
1-Dec-…
1-Feb-…
1-A
pr-
17
1-Jun-…
1-Aug-…
1-Oct-…
1-Dec-…
1-Feb-…
1-A
pr-
18
1-Jun-…
1-Aug-…
1-Oct-…
1-Dec-…
1-Feb-…
1-A
pr-
19
1-Jun-…
1-Aug-…
1-Oct-…
Monetary policy in India, Indonesia and US
United States India Indonesia
2020 1
Page | 13
F.
3
1.
2.
3. 2020
Joe Biden 2020
Elizebeth Warren
3
2
10 1%
2020 1
Page | 14
APPENDIX 1 – 2019
2019 12
10
10:
HSBC
58
5 11 5
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
Total no. of defaulted bond issuers
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
RM
Bbn
Total amount of defaulted payment
2020 1
Page | 15
3
21%
11: VS
HSBC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
SOEs Private sector corporates
2020 1
Page | 16
APPENDIX 2 – 2019
2019 2018
2018 2.5% 1.1% 28.9
2019 New Cotai 8.3
2-5
MI
12
12: 2019
(USD million)
200
300
MI 316
New Cotai 830
500
GCX
350
200
Delta Merlin Dunia Textile
300
HSBC
