IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (2007)

BASIS, IMPLEMENTATION, POTENTIAL SHORTCOMINGS

In 1930 Niels Borh said

NOTHING EXISTS UNTIL IT IS MEASURED

At present we should add:

AND NO NATURAL OR HUMAN SYSTEM SHOULD BE UTILIZED OR DEVELOPED UNTIL ITS

ENVIRONMENTAL

SOCIAL

ECONOMIC COMPONENTS

ARE CAREFULLY MONITORED AND

INTEGRALLY RESEARCHED

THIS IS THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ´ DEFYACCORDINGLY THE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF AIACC

Figure 2 – Climate Change Working group II Focus:

FAR SAR TAR

IMPACTS

IMPACTSVULNERABILITIES

IMPACTSVULNERABILITIES

ADAPTATION

EMPHASIS ON

CROSS CUTTING ISSUES / THEMES

SECTORS SECTORS

SECTORSREGIONS

Integrated analysis

NONE UNCERTAINTY *SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

*COSTING METHODOLOGIES (III)*DECISION FRAMEWORKS (III)(INCLUDING COST/BENEFITS

ANALYSIS)BIOGEOCHEMICAL / ECOLOGICAL

FEEDBACKSSINKS (SR LULUCF)

SCENARIOS (SR)

IPCC TAR SYNTHESIS REPORT

In broad lines, this first IPCC - SyR was oriented to:

a) consolidate the TAR findings, for the sake of its products ´ ready interpretation,

b) better focus matters of relevance to decision making, particularly those related to UNFCCC Article 2, the potential for, costs and benefits, and equity implications, regarding policies and measures and the KP mechanisms regarding GHG concentration,

c) incorporate the interlinkages between climate change and other global issues, as well as to refer what was known about the regional implications of climate change

d) Identify its robust findings and Key Uncertainties

Figure 1: the Previous IPCC Assesment Reports.

ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:

Issue

Climate Change and

Attribution

Key Uncertainties

Magnitude and character of natural climate variability

Climate forcings due to natural factors and anthropogenic Aerosols (particularly indirect effects)

Relating regional trends to anthropogenic climate change

ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:

Key Uncertainties

Assumptions associated with a wide range of SRES scenarios, as above

Factors associated with model projections, in particular climate sensitivity, climate forcing and feedback processes specially those involving water vapor, clouds and aerosols (including aerosols indirect effects).

Issue

Future changes in global and regional climate based on model projections with SRES scenarios

ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:

Key Uncertainties

Understanding the probability distribution associated with temperature, and sea-level projections

The mechanisms, quantification, time scales and likelihoods associated with large-scale abrupt / non linear changes (e.g. thermohaline circulation)

Capabilities of models on regional scales (especially regarding precipitation), leading to inconsistencies in model projections and difficulties in quantification on local and regional scales.

Issue

Future changes in global and regional climate based on model projections with SRES scenarios

ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:

Issue

Regional and global impacts of changes in mean climate andextremes.

Key Uncertainties

Reliability of local or regional detail in projections of climate change, especially climate extremes

Assessing and predicting response of ecological, social (e.g. impact of vector and water–borne diseases), and economic systems to the combined effect of climate change and other stresses such as land use change, local pollution, etc.

Identification, quantification and valuation of damages associated with climate change.

Taking into account the increasing interest for global environment issues and the need to:

• better understanding the causes, trends and effects of climate change and its implications on future development

• complement previous assessments at the light of the dynamic progress observed with respect to every issue concerning the global environmental change, the global climate change included.

• integrate climate change and the other environmental issues

• improve the contents, presentation and degree of confidence shown in previous assessments, to better assume the IPCC ´s advisory activities, and. in particular to fulfill its commitments with the UNFCCC, as well as to satisfy the needs from other international conventions and agreements,

the Panel assumed the responsibility to initiate a fourth assessment period, its report being identified as AR4 ( IPCC 18th Session, Wembley, 24-29 September 2001)

The Panel decided to maintain its structure with three working groups:

• WG I: The Physical Science Basis

• WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

• WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change

• WG II and III are also responsible for analyzing the social and economic implications of climate change

• Also up-graded the Task Force on Inventories

Reference Framework:

Evaluating the TAR´s results, the comments from governments, stakeholders, scientific groups and NGOs, assessing the needs from UNFCCC and other agencies (i.e. WCP-Water), and having in mind the problems like:

• shortage of specific bibliography, • reduced effective co-ordination between WGs, leading to a

non-homogeneous and unadjusted treatment of cross-cutting issues,

• different projections, derived from models run with different socio-economic scenarios,

• lack of appropriate regional climate models• limited or poor, unreliable information on socio-economic

effect of climate change, particularly regarding extreme events,

• poor or lack of information on adaptation measures, and its costs, etc,

the IPCC Bureau developed a document as a reference framework to provide the initial guidelines for AR4. This framework re-stated the need to:

1st.- ensure the high quality of IPCC products

2nd.- safeguard the reputation of the IPCC as an intergovernmental body that produces policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive neither policy driven assessments,

3rd.- develop a more narrow coordination and better integration between its three working groups, to identify relevant scientific and technological topics, with the aim of promoting new research activities and better assess their results, through their combined efforts.

Reference Framework:

Another important decision was to charge the WG co-chairs and their respective Bureaus and TSUs, with the responsibility to develop AR4 WG frameworks and outlines.

This decision modified the approach adopted regarding the building-up of TAR and improved the procedure for authors selection.

This, in turn, enabled a better approach to cross-cutting among each WG chapters.

Reference Framework:

Meanwhile, the Panel also took decision regarding the cross-cuts or intersections between the contents of the different WG chapters. The 20th IPCC Session (Paris, 19-21 February 2003) decided that the AR4 cross-cutting themes – CCTs – should be:

• Uncertainty and Risk Management (WG I)• Regional Integration (WG I)• Science related to the UNFCCC Article 2 and Key

Vulnerabilities (WGII)• Water (WG II)• Adaptation and Mitigation (WG III)• Sustainable Development (WG III)• Technology (WG III)

Reference Framework:

All, the three WGs are involved in the CCTs; however, those shown in brackets assume the responsibility to coordinate actions and report.

One of the IPCC Vice-chairs assumes the Chair´s responsibilities regarding CCTs in AR4.

Reference Framework:

Figure 3 – Climate Change Working group II Focus:

AR4

IMPACTSVULNERABILITIES

ADAPTATION

EMPHASIS ON

CROSS CUTTING ISSUES / THEMES

SectorsRegions

Integrated analysis

FAR SAR TAR

IMPACTS

IMPACTSVULNERABILITIES

IMPACTSVULNERABILITIES

ADAPTATION

SECTORS SECTORS

SectorsRegions

Integrated analysis

NONE UNCERTAINTY

*SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

*COSTING METHODOLOGIES (III)

*DECISION FRAMEWORKS (III)(INCLUDING COST/BENEFITS

ANALYSIS)BIOGEOCHEMICAL /

ECOLOGICAL FEEDBACKS

*UNCERTAINTY / RISK (I)*SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP (III)

*KEY VULNERABILITIES (ART.2 - UNFCCC)

*WATER*REGIONAL INTEGRATION (I)*ADAPTATION / MITIGATION (III)

*TECHNOLOGY (III)

Further Panel ´decisions concerning the AR4 are:

1. This report should not repeat matters already assessed in previous IPCC assessment and Special Reports. Cross references shall be included and copying previous assessments would be accepted only when necessary,

2. more efforts to search for information, particularly from developing regions, in languages other than English,

3. additional data from the largely oceanic hemisphere is badly necessary to overcome the information unbalance between North and South. If complete and reliable, such information might result in important findings,

Further Panel ´decisions concerning the AR4 are:

In each opportunity these issues were brought into consideration, it was remarked that major gain should be taken from ongoing and planned programmes and projects on global environmental issues, particularly those involving the climate problematic, i.e:

• multilateral and bilateral programmes• studies and projects financed for the sake of National

Communications to the UNFCCC• activities from UN specialized agencies and programmes,

including those from regional offices (e.g. water management issues by ECLAC)

• International non-governmental institutions, like IUCC• Specific projects developed under GEF, like those by

AIACC

Furthermore, with the avail of governments, stakeholders, NGOs, etc the Reference Framework emphasizes the need to:

1º.- develop integrated assessment studies,- linking climate change with other issues,- considering different socio-economic scenarios,- providing trustful references on technological capacities,

available infrastructures and specific legislation,

Integrate Assessment of Natural And Human Systems:

INITIAL CONDITIONS: COMPOSITION AND CHARACTERISTICS POPULATIONA; INFRASTRUCTURES AND SERVICES; AFFLUENCY; CONSUMPTION RATES; POVERTY.-

ENVIROMENTAL COMPONENTSBEARING UPON DEVELOPMENT

AFFECTED DOMAINSBY THE GLOBAL CHANGE COMPONENTS

ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN: GEOPHYSICAL VARIABLESTERRESTRIAL DOMAIN: SOILS, HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEMS, WATER RESOURCES, NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS, CRYOSPHER, BIOMES (LAND + FRESH WATER.)OCEANIC DOMAIN: GEOPHYSICAL VARIABLES, MARINE BIOMES.SOCIAL / ECONOMIC DOMAIN: HUMAN HEALTH, MIGRATIONS, POVERTY EXACERBATION, WARS, SUSTAINABILITY, EQUITY COMMUNITY, HAZARDS + RISKS.LEGAL DOMAIN: ENVIROMENTAL LAW, HUMAN SETTLEMENT´S, RESTRICTIONS, REGULATIONS.=TECHNOLOGICAL / TECHNICE DOMAIN: NATURAL SERVICES USE

CLIMATE CHANGE

LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY

DEFORESTATION

OCEANS CURRENTS ACIDIFICATION, EUTROPHICATION

ATMOSPHERE OZONE

WATER -QUANTITY AND QUALITY / ACIDIFICATION

EUTROPHICATION

AIR QUALITYACID DEPOSITIONS

DESERTIFICATION

Integrated Assesment Framework for Considering Climate Change:

ELEMENTS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:

Furthermore, with the avail of governments, stakeholders, NGOs, etc the Reference Framework emphasizes the need to:

2º.- The reports writting- must be clear, - express non-interested and unbiased conclusions,- ensure unique interpretation, and- being presented with words and formats ensuring

comparable and truthful translations in the UN official languages,

3º.- Conclusions must be of relevance to decision making, politically- relevant but not politically-prescriptive.

Working Group I : Climate Change : The Physical Science Basis:

The main issues to be dealt with by WG I are:

a) Observations (Changes in: Surface and Atmosphere - Snow, ice and frozen ground - Ocean and sea level)

b) Understanding in radiative forcing, processes and coupling ( Biogeochemical, carbon cycles and the Climate system - Air quality, aerosols, chemistry and climate change – Changes in Land Surface vs climate – and Interactions among cycles and processes)

c) Climate modeling ( Climate models and evaluation – Understanding and attributing climate change – Global climate and regional projections)

d) Advances in understanding uncertainties ( CCTs)

WG I ´s framewok also includes a chapter on Paleoclimate, with a guide to the Use of Paleoclimate Information

Includes 4 Sections:

A.- Assessment of Observed Changes - Detection and attribution: methods - Systems and Sectors : observed changes, including Vulnerability and Adaptation - Large scale aggregation and attribution

B.- Assessment of Future Impacts and Adaptation : Systems and Sectors

Includes new assessment methodologies and characterization of future conditions and encompasses sectoral issues ( Water and its management - Ecosystems: properties, goods and services - Food, fibre and forest products - Coastal systems and low lying areas - Industry Settlement and Society - Human Health)

W G II.- Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

W G II.- Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

C.- Assessment of Future Impacts and Adaptation : Regions Includes 8 clusters which are comparable with the WMO regions.

D.- Assessment of Responses to Impacts

- Assessment of responses to impacts and interconnections with the CCTs:

- Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity

- Inter-relations between Adaptation and Mitigation

- Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and Risk from Climate Change

- Perspectives on Climate change and Sustainability

WG III.- Climate Change 2007 : Mitigation of climate change

Includes 4 Sections

A.- Introduction and Framing Issues,Focus on issues in TAR and linked to the new CCTs (i.e. Distributional and Equity aspects - Costing Methodologies -

Decision Making and implementation )

B.- Issues related to Mitigation in the Long-term ContextInvolving the critical problem of socio-economic scenarios and

the new approaches to this issue. Development pathways, trends and goals leading to mitigation and the development of possible stabilization scenarios

C.- Specific Mitigation Options in the Short and Medium TermDealing with short and medium term mitigation actions involves

the need to assess the status of sectors in production and consumption of services - improvement in mitigation technologies and practices - climate policy : potentials, barriers and opportunities / implementation issues - non climate policies - co-benefits of GHG mitigation Mitigation and Adaptation options, Cost and Sustainability.

WG III.- Climate Change 2007 : Mitigation of climate change

D.- Cross Sectoral, National and International DimensionsWill assess information on mitigation from a cross-sectoral

perspective and in relation to mitigation in the long term ….- macroeconomic effects. - sustainable development vis à vis of mitigation, assessing the determinants of mirtigation capacity, in association with WG II analysis of Adaptive capacity.

Plus policies, instruments and co-operative arrangements, involving agreements and other arrangements – international co-operation and interactions with other inter-governmental arrangements and with private, local and non-governmental initiatives CCTs mainly with WG II.

POTENTIAL SHORTCOMINGS:

The limitations in TAR, which would complement the need to further research regarding the key uncertainties mentioned in the TAR-SyR, could be summarized as follows:

i) lack of sufficient geophysical, biological, economic and social information due to the lack of GCOS implementation regarding the atmospheric. Terrestrial and oceanic domains, particularly in developing countries, and the failure to complement the data series with economic and social information,

ii) need to further research on direct and indirect effects of aerosols

iii) urgent need to deepen knowledge on seas and oceans behavior under climate change. CO2 sink capacities / acidification/biological effects (trophic chain)

POTENTIAL SHORTCOMINGS CONT.:

iv) lack of reliable regional climate models,v) limited studies and investigations involving integrated

assessments,vi) need to further and improve decisions concerning socio-

economic scenarios and approach solution for regional scenarios, to better understand regions ´participation in mitigation and adaptation actions and define potential stabilization scenarios and their environmental consequences,

vii) need to further TGICA activities, taking care on the need to fill gaps regarding data and scenario support for impact and climate analysis

viii) lack of effective interactions with other scientific, technological and technical groups, leading to unnecessary efforts to implement integrated studies.

IMPLEMENTATION OF AR4:

Demands:

All possible efforts to arrive at conclusions which would satisfy better decision making, in particular those related to KP mechanisms, aiming at fulfilling UNFCCC Article 2 and to provide effective information for WEHAB ´s objectives,

Interlinking with UNCBD, UND, MEA, the Water Community and WSSD(through WEHAB),

Improve IPCC Outreaching.