IPCC Working Group I (WGI)Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

Presented byGregFlato(viceChair),onbehalf of:

ValérieMasson-DelmotteandPanmao ZhaiCo-ChairsofIPCCWGI

2nd Lead Author MeetingVancouver, 7-11 January 2019

Working Group I AR6

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

ReferenceperiodsScenarios&temperature levels

SSPs andRCPs

InWGI:SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5Temperature :1.5°C,2°C,3°C,4°C

(plus1.5to6°C/0.5°Cstep)

Working Group I AR6

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Large-scale climate change

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Large-scale climate change

Targets,path dependence,overshootClimate response tomitigation,CDR,SRM

Climate changebeyond 2100Potential forlow-probability,high-impactchange

Working Group I AR6

Working Group I AR6

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Climate processes

Working Group I AR6

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Climate processes

Remaining carbon budgetsBiogeochemical implicationsofCDR,SRM

Working Group I AR6

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Climate processes

Scenariosandtime-dependentimplicationsforradiativeforcing

andclimate responseSSPs

UrbanizationAirquality

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Climate processesClimate andEarth systemfeedbacks

Estimates ofECS,TCR,TCREMetrics toevaluate emissions

Working Group I AR6

Working Group I AR6

Regional climateinformation

Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information

Regional messages,narrativesandstorylines

Connections to WGCM and CMIP6

• The IPCC, and through it, many other users, relies on the provision of Earth System Model results from CMIP, as well as the large body of literature that CMIP has inspired.

• As in the AR5, this is facilitated by the common data format, the ESGF infrastructure, and the common experimental design and forcing data.

• CORDEX results were not heavily used in the AR5, but we anticipate much more visibility in the AR6.

• Both CMIP an CORDEX results will be used in the ambitious Interactive Atlas that is being developed (a large step beyond the Atlas in the AR5).

• WGII is planning to expand on this Atlas.

Options:• Seasons • Regions• Scenarios:

• RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5• Warming 1.5, 2, 3º• Baselines

Datasets:• CMIP5 and CORDEX

data.

Variables/indices:• Temp. and precip.• Indices (hazards)

Prototype forFOD

WGI Interactive Atlas

TrainingwillbeprovidedtoundertakereviewofFODAtlas

Reproducibility:The full code to reproduce all Atlas products will be publicly available.

Metadata:All products will have attached metadata for full provenance and traceability.

climate4R:An R-based open framework

Gutiérez etal.(2018),Iturbideetal.(2019)

WGI Interactive Atlas

Codeforatypicalproduct:Future projections for a ETCCDI index(summer days) from bias corrected CORDEX data.

WGI Interactive Atlas

JupyterNotebooks:Documents combining formatted-text and code (R/Python) cells which can be executed interactively (remotely).

Output:productswithattachedmetadata

Provenance for WGI figures

Eyringetal.,GMD,ESMValToolv1.0,2016

Tagging: meta data attached to image files

ESMValTool + Python version

variables

models + observations

references

projects

contributing authors

input files (tracking id)

figure caption

statistics + metrics

domain

CMIP6 realm

plot type

namelist

theme

diagnostic

- https://cmip-esmvaltool.dkrz.de/

e.g.

WGI Data and InfrastructureInitiativesinprogresswithWGIAuthors,DDCmanagersandcommunityleadsinWGI-relateddataissues,relevantfortheestablishmentofTG-Data

• DevelopmentofaninteractivedigitalAtlasasaproductoftheWGIreportisaninnovativeaspectoftheWGIAssessment.TrainingwillbeprovidedtoreviewthedraftAtlas.

• Bestpracticesforthedevelopmentofcommonsoftwareforend-to-endprovenancetoensurereproducibilityoffigures.- AprivateGithub repositoryhasbeensetupfordevelopment.- AccountsforanalysisofCMIP6datawithESMValTool forIPCCauthorsatDKRZ

• WGIiscollaboratingwiththeCMIPInfrastructurePanel(WIP)todeveloptrainingonCMIP6dataandtheEarthSystemGridFederationfordataaccessandanalysis.ThiswouldbemadeavailabletothebroadercommunityandCMIP6users.

• AnIPCCGitHubenvironmentisbeingsetandscriptsandpost-processeddatafromtheSpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5oCarebeingpreparedforpublishingbytheDDC.

• PreliminarydiscussionsonIPCCauthorsbeing'testusers'ofnewprototypecloud-basedinfrastructureforaccessandserver-sideanalysisofclimatebigdata.

• Enhanced awarenessandunderstanding(incl.underlyingassumptions)• Consistentterminology,information,data,usesoftimeframes• Consistencyacrosschaptersandreports• Coordinationinassessmentofwarminglevels,keyclimatevariables,naturaland

humansystemparameters(WGI-WGII)• Consistencybetweenclimatesystemparameters(WGI)andreducedcomplexity

modelsusedforclassificationofscenarios(WGIII)• Coordinatedcommunication(storylines)andintegration=>SYR

AR6 Coordination on Scenarios

• Hazardsforriskassessment,incl.compoundevents,airquality,lowprobability/highimpact,physicallyplausiblefuturechanges

• Confidenceinclimateinformationusedforimpact/riskstudies,incl.CMIP3-CMIP5-CMIP6,global/regionalmodels,andwatercyclechanges

Integration across WGI and WGII

• SeparationofCO2,CH4,N2O,otherGHG,SLCF• Healthco-benefitofnonCO2 mitigation• How tobestassess“commitment”(climatesystem,currentinfrastructureand

investments)

• Extremesandtheirimpacts(incl.inIAM)• Landusechangesandimplications• Geophysicallimits&clim.change(biomass,energy)

Integration across WGI-WGIII

Integration across WGI-WGII-WGIII

WGI 2019 Timeline

ScopingoftheTechnicalSummaryandSummaryforPolicyMakers

StrawmanTechnicalSummaryandSummaryforPolicyMakersdiscussedatLAM3

SRCCLFinalDraft29April

SROCCFinalDraft14June

WGIIInternalDraft10May

WGIIFirstOrderDraft18October

WGIIIInternalDraft22July

WGIIIFirstOrderDraft15December

WGI 2019 Timeline

WGI Timeline

201929April– 23June ExpertReviewofFirstOrderDraft26August– 1September ThirdLeadAuthorMeeting,Toulouse,France

2020

2March– 26April ExpertandGovernemnt ReviewofSecondOrderDraft1– 7June FourthLeadAuthorMeeting(locationtbd)15October Cut-offdateforacceptedliteratureforinclusioninthe

FinalDraft7December– 31January FinalGovernmentDistributionofFinalDraftand

GovernmentReviewoftheSummaryforPolicymakers

202112– 18April SubmissiontotheWGISessionforapprovalofthe

SummaryforPolicymakersandacceptanceoftheunderlyingReport(locationtbc)

TalanoadialogueUNFCCC

Globalstocktake2023

UNFCCC

Emissioninventories

ThePhysicalScienceBasis

TheSynthesisReport

ClimateChangeImpacts,

AdaptationandVulnerability

Mitigationof

ClimateChange

April2021 April2022October 2021

July 2021

Globalwarmingof

1.5 oC

Oct.2018 Sept.2019

Aug.2019

Land

Oceansandcryosphere

IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6)May2019