2. Key points Maritime security integral part of energy securitydomain Non-state security threats represent prevalentthreat to the maritime domain in Asia but lastingthreat will emanate from traditional, state-to-staterivalries Sustainable solution contingent upon developingan integrated, holistic and cooperative regionalapproach to regional maritime security concerns 3. Maritime-energy security nexus 4. Strategic importance of maritime domain Vulnerability of chokepoints: Over half of the worlds annual merchant traffic by tonnage passes through the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok Straits 15 million bpd of oil and petroleum products transit the Strait of Malacca, accounting for half of worlds oil exports Asian dependence on maritime traderoutes: 80% of Chinas oil imports transit the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Almost 90% of Indias oil imports come via maritime trade routes Asia meets three-quarters of its oil demand through imports, which is expected to increase to 90% by 2030 Sea as resource South China Sea holds an estimated seven billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 5. Non-state threats receding inSouth/ Southeast Asia Southeast Asia Political stability in Indonesia Peace in Aceh Regional cooperation Malacca Straits Patrols South Asia LTTE defeat removes most potent maritimeterrorist threat Reduced piracy threat in Bay of Bengal/ primarilyarmed robbery 6. Non-state threats persist in Indian OceanNumber of successful attacks down Coordinated approach between regionalmultilateral joint command operationsEU-led Operation AtalantaNATO-led Operation Ocean ShieldUS-led Combined Taskforce-151 Ship protection measures Private security companies Prosecuting captured pirates in regionalstates with functional judicial systems Piracy threat mutating Attacking softer/ onshore targets Increasing ransom demands Using captured merchant vessels aspirate mother ships to broaden range ofattacks balloon effect Piracy-terrorist nexus? 7. Sustainable solution to non-statesecurity threats Collaboration and coordination betweenlocal, regional and internationalstakeholders Developing rules of engagement forarmed guards defending commercialvessels Combating root causes of piracy onshore Poverty and environmentaldegradation from commercialoverfishing Ungoverned spaces arising fromabsence of a stable functioninggovernment in Somalia Strengthening Puntland police forcein north-eastern Somalia Clear demarcation of Somali EEZ 8. Inter-state threats re-emerging Growing strategic importance of the maritimedomain as economic lifeline to the region Renewed claims to disputed maritime territoryfuelled by Protecting freedom of navigation Accessing offshore energy resources Power projection ambitions Defending sovereignty and territorial integrity Growing military capabilities Growing inter-linkages between local, regional and global levels of security 9. Continental vs. maritime disputes/state vs. non-state actors Sovereignty in the maritime domain is more fluid or fungible Players in the maritime domain more diverse, creating multiple levels of interaction/ misunderstanding E.g. Destabilizing role of fishing communities 10. Maritime boundary disputes between major powers Takeshima/ Dokdo (Japan vs. South Korea) Senkaku/ Daiyutai (Japan vs. China) Paracel (China vs. Vietnam) Spratly (China vs. Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei) Northern Limit Line (North vs. South Korea) Southern Kurils/ Northern Territories (Russia vs. Japan) 11. Role of external actors Adoption of more coordinated regional approach (Vietnam, Philippines, Japan) Growing engagement with extra-territorial powers (US, Russia, India) A shift from de facto to de jure recognition of sovereignty over disputed territorieswould signal clear grounds for escalation of tensions 12. Road to cooperation Areas of mutual interest in the maritime domain Maintaining freedom of navigation along SLOCs Joint exploration of offshore oil and gas resources Combatting non-traditional security threats, including maritime piracy,terrorism and arms, narcotics and human trafficking Overcoming regional trust deficit through Addressing root causes of regional rivalries, including historical, culturaland power considerations Moving away from informal codes of conduct toward institutionalizedmechanisms Multilateral solution and more open regionalism that takes account of theviews of extra-territorial, non-claimant stakeholders 13. Conclusion Over short-term inter-state maritime rivalries unlikely to manifest in the formof armed conflict between the regions major powers. No major regional power is in a position to exercise unilateral maritime dominance over the Asia-Pacific while the United States remains the regions predominant military power and maritime hegemon As most countries remain focussed on internal growth, development and the consolidation of political power, any rivalry is likely to manifest itself in the realm of rhetoric, economics, military modernisation and a competition for allies But climate of mistrust pervades the region amid persistence of underlyinginter-state rivalries State and non-state security threats in the maritime domain maintain asymbiotic relationship Need to follow Malacca Straits Patrols model Functional cooperation built upon pre-existing confidence-building mechanisms (e.g. ASEAN) Multilateral, inclusive and multi-level model of confidence building 14. Thank youQuestions?
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