Date post: | 19-Jan-2015 |
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Alain Fiocco Sr. Director, IPv6 High Impact Project
IPv6: The New Internet Protocol past, today, tomorrow
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2
Content
User
ISP
Device
“A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory) outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”
Where is the content? Too much pain &
no gain
Where is the network?
Do I pay less ? Any new
applications?
NAT’s are good. RFC1918 gives me security, and IPv4 address runout is my ISP’s problem.
The network is not ready, users don’t care and I don’t
want to risk a poor end-user experience today for potential gains tomorrow
Enterprise
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 3
RIPE ARIN AFRINIC LACNIC
IANA
Mean while … IPv4 run-out is very real
http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/
APNIC
Last /8 policy
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 4
The world will run out of IPv4 addresses .
By 2016 there will be 7.5 billion people...
...and 19 billion fixed and mobile-connected devices (up from 10 billion in 2011) .
M o b i l e d e v i c e s a r e growing faster than the mobile subscribers that use them. 2.5 devices / capita in 2016 up from 1.5 in 2010
Globally 8 billion -40% of all fixed and mobile networked devices- will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 1 billion or 10% in 2011, a CAGR of 49%.
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5
IPv4 exhaust pinch
Users Content
Cloud
CDN
The Network
Supply Demand Delivery
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 6
CGN
Public IPv4
Statefull NAT’s create challenges for Content: Transparency to application, Location, Security for SP: CAPEX/OPEX of CGN due to statefulness
Private IPv4
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 7
!"
#!"
$!!"
$#!"
%!!"
%#!"
!"#$%"$#&'()$&*&
&'()" *+)" &'+,-"./0("/12("
VoD/TV Replay platforms: • Canalplus : 70 sessions • Pluzz.fr: 95 sessions • BBC : 45 sessions • CNN: 50
Portals/Social • Facebook: 40 sessions • Yahoo: 110 sessions • Bing: 30 • G+: 30 • Wikipedia: 50 • Twitter : 20
Peer to Peer: • BitTorent : 700
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 8
Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources
20 NAT Sessions 15 NAT Sessions 10 NAT Sessions 30 NAT Sessions times millions of users
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 9
2011 2013 2015
CGN Only
2011 2013 2015
6rd + CGN
- CGN44 Capex and Opex is growing driven by Subcribers growth, AND application complexity (session per user)
- CGN44 Cost is capped as Content switches to IPv6. - 6rd cost does not increase much as a function of # IPv6 users, AND Application complexity is transparent
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 10
CGN
IPv4
IPv6
DNS <AAAA, A>
IPv6 for growth, IPv4 for legacy with CGN: a necessary Evil Call to action: enable IPv6 content
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 11
Users Content
Cloud
CDN The
Network AT&T Verizon Mobile Comcast TWC Free RCS&RDS XS4ALL KDDI Softbank Many to come in 2013
Google Facebook Yahoo Bing Wikipedia Netflix Amazon 1000’s Enterprises Public Agencies
Amazon Rackspace OVH Akamai Limelight
http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12
6lab.cisco.com/stats
• ~80 % of Internet Core transit (top 5% AS’s) is IPv6 enabled
• > 35% of global Internet content/Web pages are reachable over IPv6
• >1% of Internet users have IPv6 Great disparities across countries
Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO
Cisco Confidential 13 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
6lab.cisco.com/stats
Cisco Confidential 14 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
6lab.cisco.com/stats
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 15 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15
What have you enabled IPv6 on today ?
Winston Churchill