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Pioneering research from the University of Cambridge
Research
Horizons
Issue 27
Spotlight
Big data
Feature The great British takeoff
Feature
How to read adigital footprint
www.cam.ac.uk/research
Contents
4 – 5 Researchnews
6 – 7 Arealpieceofwork8 – 9 Countingonsheep
10 – 11 ThegreatBritishtakeoff 12 – 13 HauntingoftheBlackBook 14 – 15 Play’sthething 16 – 17 Badairdays
18 – 19 AisforAlbatross
20 – 21 Let’sgetstatted 22 – 23 Mastersoftheuniverse 24 – 25 Thebigdatinggame 26 – 27 Miningforcorruption 28 – 29 Computertutor 30 – 31 Howtoreadadigitalfootprint
News
Features
Things
Spotlight: Big data
2 ContentsIssue27,June2015
Attheheartofalmostallresearchliesdataanditsinterpretation.Buttoday’sdatasetsarethelargest,mostdiverseandfastestaccumulatingeverexperienced–somuchso,theyhaveacquiredamonikeralloftheirown,‘BigData’,thefocusofthisissue. TheSquareKilometreArrayoftelescopes,forinstance,willproducemoredatathantheentiretrafficontheglobalinternetatanygivenmoment. GlobalcomparisonsofDNAdatabases,meanwhile,arehelpingresearchersfindpatientswithsomeoftherarestofdiseases,socliniciansdon’thavetostartfromscratcheachtimetheyencounteranewcase. Somedataisofatypeunthinkableafewyearsago.Socialmedia–TwitterandFacebook,forexample–isprovidinginformationthatcouldrevolutionisepsychologicalprofiling,employmentandcommerce. Gettingthemostoutofbigdatarequiresnewmethodstohandlelargevolumesofinformationandthecleveruseofstatisticalalgorithmstodistilmeaningfulknowledgeoutofdisorder.In2013,welaunchedaUniversity-wideinitiative,CambridgeBigData,tohelpresearchersrespondtochallengeslikethese.Cambridgeisalsooneoffiveuniversitiesthatwillcarryoutresearchinorganising,storingandinterrogatingbigdataaspartoftheAlanTuringInstitute. Ofcourse,notalldatais‘big’,butcanstillbeincrediblydifficulttogather–suchasunderstandingtheimpact,decadeslater,ofhowmuchachildplays.Quantifiableevidenceinthisareaisneededforeducationalpracticeandurbandevelopment,asdescribedinthisissue,andanewresearchcentreintheFacultyofEducationwillhelptoprovideit. Wealsocoverresearchonthemostextremeenvironmentknowntoengineering–thejetengine–aswellasairqualitymonitoring,howsheeparehelpingustounderstandadevastatinginfantbraindisease,anewtheoryoftheindustrialrevolutionandthefascinatingstoryofa‘haunted’medievalbook.
Professor Lynn GladdenPro-Vice-ChancellorforResearch
32 – 33 Ialwaysfeellikesomebody’swatchingme…
34 – 35 TragedyinNepal
Inside out
EditorDrLouiseWalsh DesignTheDistrict Printers Micropress Contributors CraigBrierley,SarahCollins,JenniferHayward,TomKirk,FredLewsey,StuartRoberts,LouiseWalsh T +44(0)1223765443 E [email protected] cam.ac.uk/research
Welcome
Copyright©2015UniversityofCambridgeandContributorsasidentified.ThecontentofResearch Horizons,withtheexceptionofimagesandillustrations,ismadeavailablefornon-commercialre-useinanotherworkunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-Non-Commercial-ShareAlikeLicence(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/),subjecttoacknowledgementoftheoriginalauthor/s,thetitleoftheindividualworkandtheUniversityofCambridge.ThisLicencerequiresanynewworkwithanadaptationofcontenttobedistributedandre-licensedunderthesamelicenceterms.Research HorizonsisproducedbytheUniversityofCambridge’sOfficeofExternalAffairsandCommunications.
3 ResearchHorizons
News
25.03.15 TheChemistryofHealthprogrammeisawarded£17milliontoresearchAlzheimer’sandParkinson’sdiseases.
01.04.15ArchaeologistsunearthoneofBritain’slargestmedievalhospitalcemeteries,containingover1,000humanremains.
News in brief
More information atwww.cam.ac.uk/research
4 News
‘Big data’ socialA new Centre is teaching undergraduate social scientists the quantitative skills they will need to tackle ‘big data’.
TheUKlagsbehindothercountriesinpreparingsocialscientistsfortheworldof‘bigdata’saysDrBrendanBurchell,DirectorofaCentresetuptoteachtheadvancedquantitativeskillstheywillneedtoworkwithlargedatasets. TheCambridgeUndergraduateQuantitativeMethodsCentre(CUQM),rootedintheDepartmentofSociology,aimstoensurethatatleast25%ofsocialscientistgraduatesleavingCambridgewillhavesomestatisticalexpertise. “TheUKisalreadywayaheadofmanyothercountriesintheavailabilityoflargedatasetsthatcanbeusedtoinformbothpolicyandsocialscienceresearch,”headds.“Overthenextfewdecades–thecareerspanofcurrentundergraduates–wearelikelytoseehugeadvancesinthe
useofquantitativedataincluding‘messier’datasetsthatcanonlybeanalysedwithrecentadvancesinbigdatatechniques. “Theseskillswillbecomeincreasinglyvitalforcareersinsocialscienceresearch,buttheywillalsomakestudentsmuchmoreemployableinmostothersectorsaswell.” CUQMisextendingtheexposuretostatisticsinthesocialscienceundergraduatecoursesatCambridge,aswellasprovidingvacationcoursesandworkplacements.Itispartofawiderinitiativetotrainsocialscientistsinresearchmethods.Cambridge’sSocialScienceResearchMethodsCentre,forinstance,complementstheworkofCUQMbyteachingquantitativemethodstograduatestudents.www.cuqm.cshss.cam.ac.uk
Documents forming the “first draft of history” in the aftermath of the Battle of Waterloo go on display. “ThefieldofBattleexhibitsthismorningamostshockingspectacletoodreadfultodescribe….”Thisletterwrittenfromthebody-strewnbattlefieldatWaterloo,togetherwithaninvasionmapoftheUKandabookfromNapoleon’spersonallibraryinexile,isamongtheexhibitsthathavegoneondisplayinCambridgeUniversityLibraryduringoneofthefirstmajorWaterlooexhibitionsofthebicentenarycommemorations. LookingathowWaterloowaswrittenaboutintheimmediateaftermathofthebattlefoughton18June1815,theexhibitiondrawsontherichandvariedcollectionsattheLibraryandincludespoliticalpropaganda,broadsheets,militarydrillbooks,colouredengravingsandearlyhistoricalaccountsofthebloodshed. “Theexhibitionreallyshowsusthefirstdraftofhistoryasitwasbeingwritteninthedays,monthsandyearsafterthebattle,”explainshistorianDrMarkNicholls,whoco-curatedtheexhibition. Theexhibitionalsofeaturesartefactsandmementoesfromthebattlefielditself,
Image Boy’s Book of British Battles
Credit:UniversityLibrary
Words of Waterloo
includingamusketballandacharredfragmentofHougoumont,thefarmhousewhichoccupiedavitalpositionintheDukeofWellington’sline.Therelicswerecollectedbyateenagegirlvisitingthefield10yearsafterthebattle. “WaterlooisthemostfamousbattleinmodernEuropeanhistory,andfromtheveryfirstmomentsoldiersandciviliansalikewantedtoputtheirexperiencesandemotionsintowords,”addsco-curator
JohnWells.“Weexaminehowthebattle’simpactwasexpressedthroughthewrittenword,andhowthedocumentaryrecordsofthetimecontinuetohaveresonanceforustoday.Waterlooisstillnews,200yearslater.”
‘A Damned Serious Business: Waterloo 1815, the Battle and its Books’ runs until 16 September 2015
12.03.15 Researchonnewfamilyforms,suchassame-sexparents,looksatwhattheseformsmeanfortheparentsandchildreninvolved.
24.03.15 ANationalResearchFacilityforInfrastructureSensingwillrecieve£18millioninfundingtosupporttheapplicationofsensortechnologies.
16.02.15 CambridgeisoneofthreeflagshipDrugDiscoveryInstitutesthatwillfast-trackdevelopmentofnewtreatmentsfordementia.
5 ResearchHorizons
Antennas and chipsDiscovery of the ‘last frontier’ of semiconductor design could be a massive leap forward for wireless communications.
ResearchersfromtheDepartmentofEngineeringhaveunravelledoneofthemysteriesofelectromagnetism,whichcouldenablethedesignofantennassmallenoughtobeintegratedintoanelectronicchip. Thepurposeofanyantenna,whetherinacommunicationstoweroramobilephone,istolaunchenergyintofreespaceintheformofelectromagneticorradiowaves,andtocollectenergyfromfreespacetofeedintothedevice. Oneofthebiggestproblems,however,isthatantennasarestillquitebigandareincompatiblewithelectroniccircuits–whichareultra-smallandgettingsmallerallthetime. “Anaerial’ssizeisdeterminedbythewavelengthassociatedwiththetransmissionfrequencyoftheapplication,andinmostcasesit’samatteroffinding
acompromisebetweenaerialsizeandthecharacteristicsrequiredforthatapplication,”explainsProfessorGehanAmaratunga,wholedtherecentlypublishedresearch. WorkingwithresearchersfromtheNationalPhysicalLaboratoryandCambridge-baseddielectricantennacompanyAntenovaLtd,theteamusedthinfilmsofpiezoelectricmaterials,atypeofinsulatorwhichisdeformedorvibratedwhenvoltageisapplied.Atacertainfrequency,thesematerialsbecomenotonlyefficientresonators,butefficientradiatorsaswell,meaningthattheycanbeusedasaerials. Futureapplicationsofthediscoveryincludeimplementationofthe‘InternetofThings’,wherealmosteverythinginourhomesandoffices,fromtoasterstothermostats,isconnectedtotheinternet.
TherearebillionsofTcellswithinourblood,eachofwhichisengagedintheferociousandunrelentingbattletokeepushealthy.TheTcellextendsmembraneprotrusionsthatexplorethesurfaceofthecell,checkingfortell-talesignsthatitisanuninvitedguest.Ittheninjectspoisonousproteinsknownascytotoxins
A dramatic video has captured the behaviour of white blood cells as they destroy cancer cells.
Insideallofuslurksanarmyofserialkillerswhoseprimaryfunctionistokillagainandagain.CytotoxicTcells,atypeofwhitebloodcell,‘huntdown’anddestroycancercellsandvirallyinfectedcellsbeforemovingontotheirnexttarget. Now,themomentofkillinghasbeencapturedonfilmin3DbyacollaborationofresearchersfromtheUKandtheUSA.TheresearchwasledbyProfessorGillianGriffithsattheCambridgeInstituteforMedicalResearchwithfundingfromtheWellcomeTrust. Theresearchersusedhigh-resolutiontime-lapsemulti-colourimagingtechniquesthatcaptureslicesthroughanobjectandthen‘stitch’themtogether.Asaresult,theyhavemanagedtoelucidatetheorderoftheeventsthatleadtodeliveryofthelethal‘hit’fromtheseserialkillers.
‘Serial killers’ caught on film
betweentheTcellandthecancercell,beforepuncturingthesurfaceanddeliveringitsdeadlycargo. “Oncethecytotoxinsareinjectedintothecancercell,itsfateissealedandwecanwatchasitwithersanddies,”explainsGriffiths.“TheTcellthenmoveson,hungrytofindanothervictim.”
Credit:GillianGriffiths
Image ATcell(green)deliversthelethalhit
Film availablebit.ly/1GMgBJU
6Credit:Scien
ceM
useu
mFeatures
A real piece of work
ImageFlamesandsmokebillowfromtheopencokehearthsoftheBedlamfurnacesinCoalbrookdale,Shropshire,asimaginedbyPhilippeJacquesdeLoutherbourgin1801
“We’re talking about a fundamental change in what we understand
about the past”
I
Dr Leigh [email protected]
7 ResearchHorizons
n 2003, researchers embarked on a project to piece together a picture of changes in British working life over
the course of 600 years. The emerging results seem to demand a rewrite of the most important chapter in our social and economic history.
TherecomesapointwhentalkingwithDrLeighShaw-Tayloratwhichitseemsnecessarytogooverthefactsagain,ifonlytoestablishthathereallydoesmeanwhatheappearstohavejustsaid.
Whilemanyhistorianswillspendtheircareerschippingawayatthepastwithgentlecare,12yearsintohisresearchproject,TheOccupationalStructureofBritain,1379–1911,Shaw-Taylorseemstobecallingforawholesalerewrite.Ifhisemergingresultsarecorrect,thentheyhavethepotentialtotransformnotonlythemostimportantchapterinoursocialandeconomichistory–theindustrialrevolution(so-called)–butwithitthewellspringofmuchofourlocalandnationalidentity.
Soisn’tthisalittledrastic?“We’retalkingaboutafundamentalchangeinwhatweunderstandaboutthepast,”hesays.“Thatisafairlywidespreadviewofourwork.I’vealwaysfeltthatyoucandomorewithhistoricalresearchthanpeoplethink,butIneverthoughtthatwecoulddothismuch.Andit’snothingcomparedwithwhatwecouldachieveifwecankeeptheprojectgoing.”
Theproject,asitsnamesuggests,isahugelyambitious,wide-scaleattempttoreconstructthepictureofhowworkinglifechangedanddevelopedinBritainfromthelateMiddleAgesthroughtotheearly20thcentury.Co-directedbyShaw-TaylorandhisCambridgecolleagueProfessorSirTonyWrigley,theresearchteamhasspentyearsassemblinginformationaboutmatterssuchaspopulationsize,transportinfrastructureandsector-by-sectoremployment,atdifferentpointsintime.
It’sacomplexjoband,beforethis,nobodyhadreallytriedit.Muchofwhatweknowaboutsocialandeconomichistoryisbasedonrecordssuchaswillsandparishregisters,whicharepatchy,inconsistentorhighlyselective.Aswellascollatinginformation,theteamthereforehadtodevelopamethodofcontrollingforthislackofcoherence,toavoiddistortingtheresultingpictureofthepast.“Wehadtodevelopasystemofweightingtheimportanceofthedatawhenanalysingit,”Shaw-Taylorexplains.“Westillcan’tbesurethatit’sright,butitputsalimitontheextenttowhichwecanbewrong.”
Textbookorthodoxysaysthat,beforetheindustrialrevolution,mostpeopleinBritainworkedinprimarysectoremployment,overwhelminglyinagriculture.Duringthe‘revolutionary’
Equally,iftheshifttosecondarysectoremploymenthappenedbeforethedark,Satanicmillsthatpopulatethenation’sconsciousnessastemplesoftheindustrialrevolutionevenexisted,thenweneedtomodifyourpictureofwhatpeoplewereactuallydoing.Ifnotfarming,thenwhat?
Itseemslikelythatmoreearly-modernBritsthanwethoughtwerecarpenters,shoemakers,bakers,butchers,tailorsandmasons.This,inturn,raisespuzzlesaboutwhenandwhyagriculturalandprimarylabourceasedtobedominant.Thelikelihoodisthattheevolutionofmoreproductive,lesslabour-intensivefarmingledtoadeclineintherelativeimportanceofprimarywork.Overtime,thechildrenandgrandchildrenofagriculturalistswouldhavebeendrawntonewopportunitiesinthesecondarysector,oreventertiary,serviceindustries.
Muchremainstobedoneandtherearestillsignificantgapsintheresearch,mostnotablyaroundtheroleofwomeninBritishemploymenthistory.Manyhistoriansassociatetheindustrialrevolutionwithnewopportunitiesforfemaleemployment;othersbelieve,justasfervently,thatfemaleemploymentcollapsed.Onlywithmoreworkandmorefundingwilltheteambeabletoestablishexactlyhowwomen’slives,andthefamily,changedduringthisperiod,andtheconsequencesthatthishadforwomen’ssocialstatus.
Whatexistsatthemomentis,nevertheless,acompellingcaseforadata-ledapproachtowritingthestoryofthepast.“Methodologically,explainingwhythingshappenedinhistoryisverydifficultbecauseitonlyhappensonceandyoucan’trunitundercontrolledconditions,”Shaw-Taylorobserves.“Yettheprocesseshistoriansaretryingtodescribeareoftenvastlymorecomplexthanthosedescribedbyscience.Ourapproachhasbeentoeschewquestionsofwhyuntilwehavethedataatourdisposal.Untilyouhavethosepatterns,you’rejusttryingtoexplainthingsthatmayormaynothavehappened,andthat’sawasteoftime.”
Funded by the British Academy, the Economic and Social Research Council, The Leverhulme Trust and the Isaac Newton Trust
80-yearperiodstartinginabout1760,thislandscapewastransformedassecondaryindustries–likeprocessingandmanufacturing–tookoff.Onlyinthe1950sdidBritainsupposedlybegintoevolveintothetertiary,service-basedeconomythatwehavetoday.
Onsuchthingsarenationalandlocalmythsfounded–talesofagreenandpleasantlandthatrapidlybecameblackwiththesmogofindustry,forexample,orofacountrythatusedtomakethings,butdoesn’tanymore.
WhenShaw-Taylorandcolleagueslookedatthedatathattheyhadassembled,however,theyfoundthatitdidn’tfittheexistingpicture.Nationally,forexample,secondarysectoremploymentseemstohavegrownmorebetween1500and1750thanbetween1750and1850.“We’vealwayspresumedthatthemajorstructuralshiftinemploymentfromtheprimarytothesecondarysectortookplacebetween1750and1850,”hesays.“Well,accordingtowhatwe’vefound,thatchangetookplaceabout100yearsearlierthanwethought.”
Similarly,thedatatransformsourpictureoftheevolutionoftertiary,service-basedindustriesinBritain.Ratherthantakingoffinthemid-20thcentury,theseseemtohavebeengrowingallthewaythroughthe18thand19th.By1911,onemanin10was,forexample,workingintransport–otherswereshopkeepers,merchants,clerksorprofessionals.
Ifthisistrue,itmeansanadjustmenttoour‘islandstory’thathassomeradicalimplicationsforthehistoryofplacesfarbeyondtheseshoresaswell.Forinstance,itisoftenarguedthatBritain’sindustrialisationwasmadepossiblethankstotherawmaterialsgatheredbytheslavesofEmpire.IfindustrialisationbeganbeforetheEmpireexisted,however,asthesefindingssuggest,thestorychanges.“Moreover,forasmallislandoffthecoastofnorth-westEuropetostartprojectingitspoweraroundtheworld,somethingunusualmusthavehappenedinternallybeforethat,notafter,”Shaw-Taylorpointsout.
heep are smarter than we might think, with brains surprisingly similar to ours. These similarities
are helping researchers to study a devastating and incurable infant brain disease.
“Shallwetakeoneofthesheepforawalk?”asksProfessorJennyMortonbeforeweheaddowntothefarmyard.
Thisseemsastrangequestionatfirst:we’reallfamiliarwithsheepbehavingwithaflockmentality,unabletothinkforthemselves.Somuchso,infact,that‘followlikeasheep’isacommonlyused,derogatoryphraseintheEnglishlanguage.
Yet,onmeetingthesheep,itisimmediatelyclearthatthesearenotjustdumbanimals.TheindividualcharactersportrayedintheanimatedfilmShauntheSheepmightbeclosertothetruth.“Theseanimalsarereallysmart,”explainsMorton,wholeadsateamintheDepartmentofPhysiology,DevelopmentandNeuroscience.“Theyallhavetheirownpersonalities.”
Morton’scolleagueDrNicholasPerentosletsIsabella,oneofhissheep,outofherpen.Sheisexcitedtobeout,butdoesn’tboundoff;rather,shefollows
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Perentoscloselyatheel,likeaLabradorfollowingitsmaster.Onceoutside,sherunsupanddownthefarmyard,stopping‘tosayhello’toothersheepbeforereturningexpectantlytoherhandler.“She’sdefinitelyNic’ssheep,”saysMorton.“SheknowswhoIam,butI’mnotwearingmyusualfarmclothestoday,soshe’salittlewaryofme.”
Mortonandcolleaguesarestudyingthecognitiveskillsandbehaviourofthesesheep,usingexperimentsadaptedfromthosecarriedoutwithhumans.Astandardtasktheyuseistogivethesheeptwooptionsandmeasuretheirbehaviour:chooseoptionAandtheyreceivepellets,chooseBandtheyreceivenothing.
Usingelectroencephalography(EEG),theresearcherscanmeasurepatternsofelectricalactivityacrossthebraintoseewhatishappeningwhenthesheepmakedecisions.Recently,theyhavebegunmakingmeasurementsfromdeepinsidethebrain.“Wecannowrecordfromindividualneuronsastheyfire,”saysPerentos.“Thismightbeinresponsetoaparticulartaskoradecisionthey’remaking,oritmightbecellsthat‘fire’dependingonwheretheyarestandingorwhichwaytheyareturning.”Thediscoveryoftheselocation-specificcells
inmice–so-called‘placecells’–lastyearwonProfessorJohnO’KeefefromUniversityCollegeLondonaNobelPrize.
Oncetheanimalknowsthetask,theresearcherswillreversethechoices:nowoptionBgivesthepellets,butnudgingtheleverforoptionAoffersnoreward.Rats,monkeys,sheepandhumansalllearntoswitch;but,comparedwithrodents,sheepreactverydifferently,explainsMorton.“Whentheydon’tgettheirrewardthey’llturnaroundandwalkuptoNic,baa-ing,asthoughthey’resaying‘Theapparatusisn’tworking,goandsortitout’.”
Thesheep’sintelligenceisonereasonwhyMortonbelievestheyareausefulanimaltohelpusunderstandhowthebrainworks.Therearesomepracticalreasons–theirdocilenaturemakesthemeasytomanageandtheirlargebodysizemeanstheycaneasilycarryequipmentsuchasGPStrackersinaharnessontheirbacks,allowingresearcherstomeasuretheirnaturalbehaviour–butitisthesizeandstructureoftheirbrainsthatiskey.
Sheep’sbrainsaremuchlargerthanthoseofrodents,similarinsizetothebrainofarhesusmacaque,andwiththecomplexfoldsthatareseeninprimatebrains.Crucially,theirbrainsalsohave
Features
S
Counting on sheep
Professor Jenny [email protected] Nicholas PerentosDepartmentofPhysiology,DevelopmentandNeuroscience
ResearchHorizons
onecopyfromeachparent.Butitisalsoextremelyserious–symptomsincludeprogressiveblindness,severeseizuresandthelossoflanguage,swallowingandmotorskills.Deathatayoungageisinevitableandthereisnocure.
AlthoughBattendiseaseaffectshumans,ithasneverbeenseeninotherprimates.Itdoes,however,occurnaturallyinsheep,thoughit’sunclearhowcommonitis,asmostfarmedsheeparekilledaslambsforhumanconsumption.ThediseasewasidentifiedinsheepinNewZealand,anditisfromthesesheepthatMorton’sanimalswerebred.Someofhersheepareimported,othersarestudiedinNewZealand.
Battendiseaseisverysimilarinsheepandhumans.Atfirst,itisdifficulttospotaBattensheep,butafteraboutayear,theybegintolosetheireyesightandshowunusualbehaviour.After18monthstotwoyears,theyshowsignsofdementia,oftenstandingmotionlessinspace,andcanbecomeagitatedifhandledbysomeoneotherthantheirusualhandler.
Recordingbrainactivity,particularlyinareassuchasthehippocampus,whichiscrucialformemoryandlearning,willgiveMortonandherteaminsightsintowhatgoeswronginthediseaseinsheep.Thisisonestepalongthelongpathtowardstreating–evencuring–thediseaseinhumans.
WithcollaboratorsinAustralia,MortonisalsostudyingHuntington’sdisease,amorecommonbutequallydevastatingdisease.UnlikethosewithBattendisease,people–andsheep–withHuntington’sdonotbeginshowingsymptomsuntiladulthood.“Wehave
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goodmousemodelsforstudyingHuntington’sdisease,butmiceareshort-livedanimals,whereassheepcanlivetoatleast12years.Thisisanotherhugebenefitofstudyingthediseaseinsheep.”
Thereisnoquestionthatresearchusinganimalsremainscontroversial.Therearesomewhobelievethatanimalresearchcanneverbejustified.Mortonhasherselfencounteredextremeexamplesofsuchpeopleinthepastandhasfaceddeaththreatsbecauseofherwork.ButsheknowsthatherworkisextremelyimportantforthefamiliesofchildrenwithBattendisease.
“There’sonlyonethingworsethanbeingaparentwithachildwhoisblind,losingtheirmotorskillsanddevelopingdementia,”shesays,“andthat’sbeingaparentwithachildwhoisblind,losingtheirmotorskillsanddevelopingdementia,andthinkingthatnooneisaskingwhy.That’swhywehaveadutytodoourresearch.”
basalgangliasimilartoours–thisistheareadeepinthebrainthat,alongwiththecerebralcortex,isresponsibleforimportantfunctionssuchasthecontrolofmovementand‘executivefunctions’suchasdecision-making,learningandhabitformation.It’sthislatterfacetthatmakessheepausefulmodelforstudyingbraindiseasessuchasHuntington’sdiseaseandBattendiseasethataffectthebasalgangliaandcerebralcortex.
YoumayneverhaveheardofBattendisease:it’sextremelyrare,andonlyahandfulofinfantsorchildrenarediagnosedeachyearintheUK.Itisageneticdiseasecausedwhenachildcarriestwocopiesofanaberrantgene–
“We can now record from
individual neurons as they fire”
Counting on sheep
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The Great British Takeoff
“Increasing one ingredient might produce one sought-after property, but at the sake of another...
we need to find the perfect chemical recipe”
Features
Credit:Rolls-Royceplc
Dr Cathie Rae [email protected] Howard Stone [email protected]
11 ResearchHorizons
he Periodic Table may not sound like a list of ingredients but, for a group of materials scientists, it’s the starting point for designing the perfect chemical make- up of tomorrow’s jet engines.
Insideajetengineisoneofthemostextremeenvironmentsknowntoengineering.
Inlessthanasecond,atonneofairissuckedintotheengine,squeezedtoafiftiethofitsnormalvolumeandthenpassedacrosshundredsofbladesrotatingatspeedsofupto10,000rpm;reachingthecombustor,theairismixedwithkeroseneandignited;theresultinggasesareaboutathirdashotasthesun’ssurfaceandhurtleatspeedsofalmost1,500kmperhourtowardsawallofturbines,whereeachbladegeneratespowerequivalenttothethrustofaFormulaOneracingcar.
Turbinebladesmadefrom‘super’materialswithoutstandingpropertiesareneededtowithstandtheseunimaginablychallengingconditions–wherethetemperaturessoartoabovethemeltingpointoftheturbinecomponentsandthecentrifugalforcesareequivalenttohangingadouble-deckerbusfromeachblade.
Evenwiththesequalities,thebladesrequireaceramiclayerandanaircoolingsystemtopreventthemfrommeltingwhentheenginereachesitstoptemperatures.Butwithever-increasingdemandsforgreaterperformanceandreducedemissions,theaerospaceindustryneedsenginestorunevenhotterandfaster,andthismeansexpectingmoreandmorefromthematerialstheyaremadefrom.
This,saysDrCathieRae,isthe materialsgrandchallenge.“Turbinebladesaremadeusingnickel-basedsuperalloys,whicharecapableofwithstandingthephenomenalstressesandtemperaturestheyneedtooperateunderwithinthejetengine.Butwearerunningclosetotheircriticallimits.”
Analloyisamixtureofmetals,suchasyoumightfindinsteelorbrass.Asuperalloy,however,isamixturethatimpartssuperiormechanicalstrengthandresistancetoheat-induceddeformationandcorrosion.
RaeisoneofateamofscientistsintheRolls-RoyceUniversityTechnologyCentre(UTC)attheDepartmentofMaterialsScienceandMetallurgy.Theteam’sresearcheffortsarefocusedonextractingthegreatestpossibleperformancefromnickel-basedsuperalloys,andondesigningsuperalloysofthefuture.
Currentjetenginespredominantlyusealloyscontainingnickelandaluminium,whichformastrongcuboidallattice.Withinandaroundthisbrick-likestructure
areuptoeightothercomponentsthatforma‘mortar’.Together,thecomponentsgivethematerialitssuperiorqualities.
“Eventinyadjustmentsintheamountofeachcomponentcanhaveahugeeffectonthemicroscopicstructure,andthiscancauseradicalchangesinthesuperalloy’sproperties,”explainsDrHowardStone.“It’sratherlikeadjustingtheingredientsinacake–increasingoneingredientmightproduceonesought-afterproperty,butatthesakeofanother.Weneedtofindtheperfectchemicalrecipe.” StoneisthePrincipalInvestigatoroverseeinga£50millionStrategicPartnershiponstructuralmetallicsystemsforadvancedgasturbineapplicationsfundedjointlybyRolls-RoyceandtheEngineeringandPhysicalSciencesResearchCouncil(EPSRC),andinvolvingtheUniversitiesofBirmingham,Swansea,Manchester,OxfordandSheffield,andImperialCollegeLondon.
Theresearchersmelttogetherpreciseamountsofeachofthedifferentelementstoobtaina5cmbar,thenexhaustivelytestthebar’smechanicalpropertiesandanalyseitsmicroscopicstructure.Theirpastexperienceinatomicengineeringisvitalforhominginonwheretheincrementalimprovementsmightbefound–withoutthis,theywouldneedtomakemanymillionsofbarstotesteachreasonablemixtureofcomponents.
Now,theyarelookingbeyondtheusualcomponentstoexoticelements,althoughalwayswithaneyeonkeepingcostsaslowaspossible,whichmeansnotusingextremelyrarematerials.“ThePeriodicTableisourplayground…we’repickingandmixingelements,guidedbyourcomputermodelsandexperimentalexperience,tofindthenextgenerationofsuperalloys,”headds.
Theteamnowhave12patentswithRolls-Royce.OneofthemostrecenthasbeenincollaborationwithImperialCollegeLondon,andinvolvesthediscoverythattheextremelystrongmatrixstructureofnickel-basedaluminiumsuperalloyscanalsobeachievedusingamixtureofnickel,aluminium,cobaltandtungsten.
“Insteadofthecakebeingflavouredwithtwomainingredients,wecanmakeitwithfour,”Stoneexplains.“Thisgivesthestructureevenbetterproperties,manyofwhichweareonlyjustdiscovering.”
“We’vealsobeenlookingatnewintermetallicreinforcedsuperalloysusingchromium,tantalumandsilicon–nonickelatall.Wehaven’tquitegotthefinalbalancetoachievewhatwewant,butwe’reworkingtowardsit.”
Stonehighlightstheimportanceofcollaborationbetweenindustryandacademia:“Newalloystypicallytake10yearsandmanymillionsofpoundstodevelopforoperationalcomponents.
Wesimplycouldn’tdothisworkwithoutRolls-Royce.Forthebestpartoftwodecadeswe’vehadacollaborationthatlinksfundamentalmaterialsresearchthroughtoindustrialapplicationandcommercialexploitation.”
It’sasentimentechoedbyDrJustinBurrows,ProjectManageratRolls-Royce:“Ouracademicpartnersunderstandthematerialsanddesignchallengeswefaceinthedevelopmentofgasturbinetechnology.ImprovementslikethenovelnickelandsteelalloysdevelopedinCambridgearekeytohelpingusmeetthesechallengesandtomaintainingourcompetitiveadvantage.”
TheCambridgeUTC,whichwasfoundedbyitsDirectorProfessorSirColinHumphreysin1994,isoneofaglobalnetworkofover30UTCs.TheseformpartofRolls-Royce’s£1billionannualinvestmentinresearchanddevelopment,whichalsoincludestheDepartmentofEngineering’sUniversityGasTurbinePartnership.Rolls-RoyceandEPSRCalsofundDoctoralTrainingCentresinCambridgethathelptoensureacontinuingsupplyofhighlytrainedscientistsandengineersreadytomoveintoindustry.
TheUKaerospaceindustryisthelargestinEurope,withaturnoverin2011of£24.2billion;worldwide,it’ssecondonlytothatoftheUSA.Meanwhile,increasingglobalairtrafficisestimatedtorequire35,000newpassengeraircraftby2030,worthabout$4.8trillion.
Fortheresearchers,it’sfascinatingtoseeglobalengineeringchallengesbeingsolvedfromtheatomup,asRaeexplains:“Thecommercialsuccessofanewenginecanbedependentonverysmalldifferencesinfuelefficiency,whichcanonlybeachievedbyinnovationsinmaterialsanddesign.There’ssomethingreallyexcitingaboutworkingattheatomicscaleandseeingthistranslateintoinnovationwithbigpowerfulmachines.”
T
Film availableonline
he 16th-century owner of one of Wales’ oldest manuscripts probably thought they were
‘tidying up’ when they assiduously erased ancient doodles and verses scribbled in its margins. Now, Cambridge researchers have brought them back to life.
ProfessorPaulRussellandPhDstudentMyriahWilliamshadbeenpeeringattheancientmanuscriptforseveralhours,methodicallyturningpageafterpageandadjustingtheultraviolet(UV)lampinthehopeofcastingnewlightandunderstandingona750-year-oldmasterpiece.
OtherreadersandresearchershadcomeandgonefromtheReadingRoom
attheNationalLibraryofWalesasthepairploughedon.But,despitetheirefforts,thevellumpageshadrevealedonlythemedievalWelshpoetrytheyknewsowell,plusafewtinyfragmentsoftextinthemargins,noneofwhichwereparticularlyremarkableornoteworthy.
Then,astheUVlightfellonfolio39vofthemanuscript,Russellturnedinastonishmenttohiscolleagueandasked:“AreyouseeingwhatI’mseeing?”
There,invisibletothenakedeyebutappearingundertheglareofUV,wereapairofetherealfacesandalineofaccompanyingtext.Withimage-enhancementtechniques,theyweretofindanentirepageoferasedversethatwas(andremains)unknowninthecanonofWelshpoetry.
ThemanuscriptcontainingtheghostlyimageswasThe Black Book of Carmarthen–theearliestsurvivingmedievalmanuscriptwrittensolelyinWelsh.ContainingsomeoftheearliestreferencestothelegendarytalesofKingArthurandMerlin,theBlackBook(so-calledbecauseofthecolourofitsbinding)isacollectionof9th-to12th-centuryreligiousandsecularpoetry,anddrawsonthetraditionsoftheWelshfolk-heroesandlegendsfromtheearlymedievalperiod.
However,despiteitsimportanceanddecadesofscholarlyresearch,itistheworkofthetwoCambridgeresearchersthatisilluminatingnewglimpsesofversefromthisancientbook.
“Weknewthattherehadbeensignificanterasureinthemarginsofthemanuscriptbutweneverexpectedtofindtwofacesstaringoutatus,”saysWilliams.“Wethoughtwemightrecoversometextbutnotimages.Youneverfindimages.”
WilliamsandRussell,fromtheDepartmentofAnglo-Saxon,NorseandCeltic,haveworkedtogetherontheBlackBookforthepastthreeyears.Russellhasstudiedthelanguage–thenutsandboltsofspelling,punctuation,grammar,andsoon–whereasforWilliamsthebookasawholeisthesubjectofherPhD.
The54-pagebook,whichdatesfrom1250andisonlyjustlargerthanahand’slength,isthoughttohavebeenwrittenbyasinglescribewhowasprobablycollectingandrecordingpoetryduringalongperiodofhislife.Then,asthemanuscriptchangedhandsoverthecenturiesthatfollowed,itsvariousownersmadetheirownadditions.
Until,thatis,itwas‘tidiedup’.Theybelievethata16th-centuryownerofthebook,possiblyamannamedJasparGryffyth,summarilyerasedthemarginalia.
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Haunting of the Black Book
Credit:Allimag
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AmongtheerasedmaterialissomepreviouslyunrecordedWelshverse.Althoughthetextisfragmentaryandinneedofmoreanalysis,itseemstobethecontinuationofapoemontheprecedingpagetogetherwithanewpoematthefootofthepage.
“It’seasytothinkweknowallwecanknowaboutamanuscriptliketheBlackBook,”addsWilliams.“Buttoseetheseghostsfromthepastbroughtbacktolifeinfrontofoureyeshasbeenincrediblyexciting.Thedrawingsandversethatwe’reintheprocessofrecoveringdemonstratethevalueofgivingthesebooksanotherlook.
“Themarginsofmanuscriptsoftencontainmedievalandearlymodernreactionstothetext,andthesecancastlightonwhatourancestorsthoughtaboutwhattheywerereading.TheBlackBookwasparticularlyheavilyannotatedbeforetheendofthe16thcentury.Forinstance,WelshscholarDrJohnDaviesofMallwydwroteinthemargin‘Idon’tunderstandtheBlackBook’.Thisiswonderful!ThiswasamanwhowroteoneofthefirstWelshgrammarsanddictionaries!Thistypeofreactionbringsthepagestolife.”
ThepairalsorecoveredadrawingofafishunderneathapoemaboutthedrowningofCardiganBay.Thebaywasflooded,solegendsays,throughthewrathofGod,andbothRussellandWilliamsbelievethefishwasdrawninconnectionwiththepoem’ssubjectmatter.Ironically,thepagecontainingthepoemaboutfloodingshowssomeevidenceofwaterdamage.
ContentsoftheBlackBookrangefromreligiousversetopraisepoetrytonarrative
poetry.AnexampleofthelatteristheearliestpoemconcerningtheadventuresofArthur,whichseesthefamedheroseekingentrancetoanunidentifiedcourtandexpoundingthevirtuesofhismeninordertogainadmittance.
OtherheroesarepraisedandlamentedinalengthytextknownasEnglynion y Beddau,theStanzasoftheGraves,inwhichanarratorpresentsgeographiclorebyclaimingtoknowtheburialplacesofupwardsof80warriors.Arthurmakesanappearancehereaswell,butonlyin-so-farastosaythathecannotbefound:anoeth bid bet y arthur,‘thegraveofArthurisawonder’.
Furtherfamousfiguresalsoappearthroughout,includingMyrddin,morefamiliarlyknownbytheEnglishas‘Merlin’.
Therearetwopropheticpoemsattributedtohimduringhis‘wildman’phaselocatedinthemiddleofthemanuscript,butadditionallytheveryfirstpoemofthebookispresentedasadialoguebetweenhimandthecelebratedWelshpoet
Myriah [email protected] Paul [email protected],NorseandCeltic
“We thought we might recover some text but not images.
You never find images.”
Taliesin.EversinceGeoffreyofMonmouthcomposedHistoria Regum Britanniaeinthe12thcenturytherehasbeenaconnectionbetweenCarmarthenandMerlin,anditmaybenoaccidentthattheBlackBookopenswiththistext.
Russellbelievesthatthenewdiscoveriesmayonlybethetipoftheicebergintermsofwhatcanberecoveredasimagingtechniquesareenhanced:“Thesedrawingsandothermarginaliahelpustogobeyondthetexttoshowwhatpeoplethoughtaboutit,sometimesseriously,sometimesinaplayfulway.Themanuscriptisextremelyvaluableandincrediblyimportant–yettheremaystillbesomuchwedon’tknowaboutit.”
13 ResearchHorizons
ImagesImagesofTheBlack Book of Carmarthen,includingtheerasedfaces(left)
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hildren’s play is under threat from increased urbanisation, perceptions of risk and
educational pressures. The first research centre of its kind aims to understand the role played by play in how a child develops.
Brickbybrick,six-year-oldAliceisbuildingamagicalkingdom.Imaginingfairy-taleturretsandfire-breathingdragons,wickedsorcerersandgallantheroes,she’screatinganenchantingworld.Althoughsheisn’tawareofit,thisfantasywillhaveimportantrepercussionsinheradultlife:itishelpinghertakeherfirststepstowardshercapacityforabstractthoughtandcreativity.
Minuteslater,Alicehasabandonedthekingdominfavourofwrestlingwithherbrother–or,accordingtoeducationalpsychologists,developinghercapacityfor
strongemotionalattachments.Whenshebosseshimaroundas‘histeacher’,she’spractisinghowtoregulateheremotionsthroughpretence.Whentheysettledownwithaboardgame,she’slearningaboutrulesandturn-taking.
“Playinallitsrichvarietyisoneofthehighestachievementsofthehumanspecies,”saysDrDavidWhitebreadfromCambridge’sFacultyofEducation.“Itunderpinshowwedevelopasintellectual,problem-solving,emotionaladultsandiscrucialtooursuccessasahighlyadaptablespecies.”
Recognisingtheimportanceofplayisnotnew:overtwomillenniaago,Platoextolleditsvirtuesasameansofdevelopingskillsforadultlife,andideasaboutplay-basedlearninghavebeendevelopingsincethe19thcentury.
Butweliveinchangingtimes,andWhitebreadismindfulofaworldwide
declineinplay.“Overhalftheworld’spopulationliveincities.Playiscurtailedbyperceptionsofrisktodowithtraffic,crime,abductionandgerms,andbytheemphasison‘earlierisbetter’inacademiclearningandcompetitivetestinginschools.
“Theopportunitiesforfreeplay,whichIexperiencedalmosteverydayofmychildhood,arebecomingincreasinglyscarce.Today,playisoftenascheduledandsupervisedactivity.”
InternationalbodiesliketheUnitedNationsandtheEuropeanUnionhavebeguntodeveloppoliciesconcernedwithchildren’srighttoplay,andtoconsiderimplicationsforleisurefacilitiesandeducationalprogrammes.Butwhattheyoftenlackistheevidencetobasepolicieson,asWhitebreadexplains:“Thoseofuswhoareinvolvedinearlychildhoodeducationknowthatchildrenlearnbest
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Play’s the thing
thestory.Inthelateststudy,childrenfirstbuilttheirstorywithLEGO,withsimilarresults.“Manyteacherscommentedthattheyhadalwayspreviouslyhadchildrensayingtheydidn’tknowwhattowriteabout.WiththeLEGObuilding,however,notasinglechildsaidthisthroughthewholeyearoftheproject.”
ThestrandofresearchheleadsintheCentrewillfocusontheresultsoflarge-scalelongitudinalstudies,suchastheUniversityofLondon’sMillenniumCohortStudy,whichischartingthesocial,economicandhealthconditionsofindividualchildren.Whitebreadhopestodeterminehowmuchachildplays,thequalityoftheirplayfulness,andwithwhatendresult.
Evenwhenthisevidenceisknown,itisoftendifficulttodeveloppracticesthatbestsupportchildren’splay.ThetworesearchstrandsledbyGibsonandBakerwillaidthis:Gibsonwillbedevelopinganunderstandingofthecognitiveprocessesinvolvedinplayandmeasuresofplayfulness,andBakerwillbeconstructingandevaluatingplay-basededucationalinterventions.
Whitebread,whodirectsPEDaL,trainedasaprimaryschoolteacherintheearly1970s,when,ashedescribes,“theteachingofyoungchildrenwaslargelyaquietbackwater,untroubledbyanyseriousintellectualdebateorcontroversy.”Now,thelandscapeisverydifferent,withhotlydebatedtopicssuchasschoolstartingageandtheintroductionofbaselineassessmenttothosestartingschoolinSeptember2015.
“Somehowtheimportanceofplayhasbeenlostinrecentdecades.It’sregardedassomethingtrivial,orevenassomethingnegativethatcontrastswith‘work’.Let’snotlosesightofitsbenefits,andthefundamentalcontributionsitmakestohumanachievementsinthearts,sciencesandtechnology.Let’smakesurechildrenhavearichdietofplayexperiences.”
15 ResearchHorizons
Left to rightDr David [email protected] Sara [email protected] Jenny [email protected]
throughplayandthatthishaslong-lastingconsequencesforachievementandwellbeing.Butthekindofhardquantifiableevidencethatisunderstoodbypolicymakersisdifficulttoobtain.Researchingplayisinherentlytricky.”
“Thetypeofplayweareinterestedinischild-initiated,spontaneousandunpredictable–but,assoonasyouaskafive-year-old‘toplay’,thenyouastheresearcherhaveintervened,”explainsDrSaraBaker.“Andwewanttoknowwhattheimpactofplayisyears,evendecades,later.It’sarealchallenge.”
DrJennyGibsonagrees:“Althoughsomeofthestepsinthepuzzleofhowandwhyplayisimportanthavebeenlookedat,thereisverylittle,high-qualityevidencethattakesyoufromtheamountandtypeofplayachildexperiencesthroughtoitsimpactontherestofitslife.”
Now,thankstothenewCentreforResearchonPlayinEducation,DevelopmentandLearning(PEDaL),Whitebread,Baker,Gibsonandateamofresearchershopetoprovideevidenceontheroleplayedbyplayinhowachilddevelops.
“Astrongpossibilityisthatplaysupportstheearlydevelopmentofchildren’sself-control,”explainsBaker.
“Theseareourabilitiestodevelopawarenessofourownthinkingprocesses–itinfluenceshoweffectivelywegoaboutundertakingchallengingactivities.”
InastudycarriedoutbyBakerwithtoddlersandyoungpre-schoolers,shefoundthatchildrenwithgreaterself-controlsolvedproblemsquickerwhenexploringanunfamiliarset-uprequiringscientificreasoning,regardlessoftheirIQ.“Thissortofevidencemakesusthinkthatgivingchildrenthechancetoplaywillmakethemmoresuccessfulandcreativeproblem-solversinthelongrun.”
Ifplayfulexperiencesdofacilitatethisaspectofdevelopment,saytheresearchers,itcouldbeextremelysignificantforeducationalpracticesbecausetheabilitytoself-regulatehasbeenshowntobeakeypredictorofacademicperformance.
Gibsonadds:“Playfulbehaviourisalsoanimportantindicatorofhealthysocialandemotionaldevelopment.Inmypreviousresearch,Iinvestigatedhowobservingchildrenatplaycangiveusimportantcluesabouttheirwellbeingandcanevenbeusefulinthediagnosisofneurodevelopmentaldisorderslikeautism.”
Whitebread’srecentresearchhasinvolveddevelopingaplayfulapproachtosupportingchildren’swriting.“Manyprimaryschoolchildrenfindwritingdifficult,butweshowedinapreviousstudythataplayfulstimuluswasfarmoreeffectivethananinstructionalone.”Childrenwrotelongerandbetterstructuredstorieswhentheyfirstplayedwithdollsrepresentingcharactersin
“The opportunities for free play, which
I experienced almost every day of my childhood, are becoming
increasingly scarce”
ollution causes 30,000 people a year in the UK to die early yet most of us are unaware of the degree
to which we are exposed to it. Low-cost pollution detectors could provide the answer. Rushhourcanbemaddening.Roadscongestedwithtraffic,publictransportovercrowded,pavementsheavingwithpeople.Butaswellasthefrustration,there’sasinistersidetothecommutetowork:everybreathyoutakecouldbeaddingtoyourriskofdyingprematurely.
Airpollutionistheworld’slargestsingleenvironmentalhealthrisk,causingoneineveryeightdeathsaccordingtofiguresreleasedlastyearbytheWorldHealthOrganization.IntheUK,30,000peopledieprematurelyeveryyearasaresultofpoorairquality,anditcoststheNHSandwidereconomymanybillionseachyear.
Trafficisthemainculprit;however,industry,domesticheating,powergenerationandburningareallcontributorstopollution.Andalthoughtheeffectsofpollutionmightbenoticeableonaparticularlysmoggydayinalargecity,decadesofexposuretoonlyslightlyhigherlevels–alevelwewouldn’tevennotice–canincreasetheriskofheartandlungdiseases,strokeandcancer.
“Toworkoutthefactorsweshouldbeworriedabout,andhowwecanintervene,weneedtorethinkhowwemeasurewhat’sgoingon,”explainsatmosphericscientistProfessorRodJones.
IntheUK,theAutomaticUrbanandRuralNetworkprovidesvaluablehour-by-hourassessmentsofairquality.Butwithonly171monitoringstationsatfixedsitesnationwide,largeareasofthecountryremainuncovered.Costisthemainlimitationtodevelopingahigherdensitynetwork.
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Withthisinmind,Jones’team,togetherwithindustrialpartnersandotheruniversities,hasbeendevelopinglow-costpollutiondetectorsthataresmallenoughtofitinyourpocket,stableenoughtobeinstalledaslong-termstaticdetectorsaroundacity,andsensitiveenoughtodetectsmallchangesinairqualityonastreet-by-streetbasis.TheirfindingsarenowinformingresearchprojectsaimedatimprovingairqualityinmajorcitiesacrossEuropeandNorthAmerica.
ThedetectorsarebasedonelectrochemicalsensorsdevelopedbyprojectpartnerAlphasenseforindustrialsafety,wheredetectionoftoxicgasesisneededattheparts-per-millionlevel.Monitoringairquality,however,requiresparts-per-billionsensitivity.“RodandIhadtheconfidencetobelievethatwecouldpushoursensorstolowerconcentrationlevels,andyetkeepsensorcostslow,”saysDrJohnSaffell,TechnicalDirectoratAlphasense.
Theelectrochemicaldevicestheteamdevelopedcanmeasureawiderangeofpollutants,includingcarbonmonoxide,nitrogendioxideandozone,andtheycontainlasertechnology(developedbytheUniversityofHertfordshire)todetectparticulatesfromcarsandlorries.TheadditionofaGPSaerialallowsairqualitydataandlocationtobemappedsimultaneously.
Aseriesofproof-of-conceptstudiesfollowed.Personaldeviceswerestrappedtobicycles,carriedincarsandonbuses,andstaticdeviceswereattachedtolamppostsandstationedatroadsidesandatcriticalpollutantsites.FiftystaticdeviceswerealsodeployedaroundLondonHeathrowAirporttorecord22monthsinthelifeofoneofthebusiestairportsintheworld.
“Thiswasthefirsttimetechnologylikethishadbeentestedinreal-worldsituationsasahigh-densitynetwork,”saysJones,whoseresearchatHeathrow
Bad air days
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Professor Rod [email protected]
wasfundedbytheNaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil.“Wecouldseehugevariabilityintheexposuretopollutionthatpeopleencounterastheymovearoundtheurbanenvironment,including‘hotspots’.
AtHeathrow,wecouldseetheairportturningonandoffduringtheday,individualaircrafttaxingandtakingoff,andtheeffectsofwinddirectionandtheperimeterandM25motorwayroadtraffic.”
Theyalsodiscoveredthatsensorperformancecancreatenewopportunities.Jonesandcolleagueshadtodevelopnewsmartsoftwaremethodscapableofseparatinglocalpollutioneventsfrombackgroundsignals(pollutiontransportedfromlongrange)andthentocalibratesensorsacrossnetworks.Plus,theyneededtomovefrombeingabletoprocessthedataafterithasbeencollectedtodoingsoinreal-time.
TheteamhasbeenworkingwithCambridgeEnvironmentalResearchConsultants–developersofworld-
leadingairqualitymodellingsoftware–combiningtheunprecedentedlevelofdatacreatedbythepollution-monitoringstudieswithmodeloutputtoenhancetheunderstandingofpollutiondispersion.
Forinstance,sensorscanbeusedtoaskwhetherpollutionalongbusroutesisimprovedbyupgradingtheexhaustprocessingonabusfleet;whetherpeoplelivingatthetopofhigh-risebuildingsexperiencemoreorlesspollutionthanpeopleatstreetlevel;andtowhatextentchangingaroutetowork,evenfromonesideoftheroadtoanother,canaffectanindividual’sexposure.
Lastyear,thefirstcommercialproduct(AQMesh)wasreleasedbyUKmanufacturerGeotech,whichspecialisesinenvironmentalmonitoringequipment.AQMeshusesAlphasensesensorstosampleevery10seconds,anddataprocessingiscarriedoutinreal-timeusingcloudcomputingsoftwaresimilartothatdevelopedbytheCambridgeteam.
“Whentheprojectstartedin2006therewerelonevoicescallingforadifferentapproachtoairqualitymonitoring,”explainsGeotech’sCommercialManagerAmandaRandle.“TheCambridgeteamandAlphasensehelpedustounderstandthesensor’sfullpotential,andnowwehaveaproductthatcanbeplacedexactlywhereit’sneededandprovidesvaluableinformation.”
AndnowtheapproachpioneeredinCambridgeishelpingtoinformtwoofthelargestairqualityresearchstudiesoftheirkind.
TheAirSensaproject,runbythenon-profitorganisationChangeLondon,aimstodeploylargenumbersofairqualitysensorsacrossthewholeofGreaterLondon.Alphasenseisprovidingthesensorsandsupportingtheengineering;andCambridgeishelpingwithdatainterpretationinaprojectwhoseethos
is“youcan’tmanagewhatyoucan’tmeasure.”
Meanwhile,themethodologiestheresearchersdevelopedinthepilotstudyatHeathrowarecontributingtoCITI-SENSE,anEU-funded€12.7millionprojectprovidingwirelessnetworkstoeightcitiesacrossEurope.CITI-SENSEinvolves27partnerinstitutionsfromacademia,thehealthcaresectorandindustry(includingAlphasenseandGeotech),aswellasthegeneralpublic.CitizensacrossEuropewillbeinvolvedindatacollectionthroughpersonalmonitorsandincommunitydecision-makingtochoosemonitoringsolutionsforspacessuchasschoolsandurbanpublicspaces.
“Eventhoughtheeffectsofpoorairqualityonhealtharewellknown,irrefutableevidenceofthescaleoftheairqualityissueandthebenefitsofamelioratingstrategiesisurgentlyneeded,”addsJones.“CITI-SENSEprovidesatest-bedforbothrollingoutthenewtechnologiesthatarecomingonlineandfordrawingonthe‘poweroftheCitizen’toguidehowsocietyresponds.”
17 ResearchHorizons
“Air pollution is the world’s largest single environmental health risk, causing one in every eight deaths”
Film available online
fascinating 26-part series – the Cambridge Animal Alphabet – has launched online. It celebrates
Cambridge’s connections with animals through literature, art, science and society.
HorsesfrolicontheplastercastoftheParthenonfriezeintheMuseumofClassicalArchaeology;researchintochickensishelpingtounderstandamajorsourceoffoodpoisoning;anewbookexploresthemakingofthemoderndogasapamperedurbanpet;and,everyday,millionsoffruitfliesarefedbytheflykitchenintheDepartmentofGenetics. ThesearejustsomeofthestorieswediscoveredwhenwesetouttocreateaCambridgeAnimalAlphabet:anAtoZofanimalswithaCambridgeconnection.Theseries,whichisavailableonourwebsite,launcheswithA is for Albatross… InJune1910,DrEdwardWilsonsetsailtoAntarcticaonboardtheTerra NovaontheBritishAntarcticExpeditionledbyCaptainScott.Asupremelytalentedartist,Wilsonsketchedwhathesaw–includingthemajesticalbatross.
Theexpeditionendedintragedy.ThemembersoftheBritishexpeditionperishedontheirreturnfromthepolehavingdiscoveredthattheNorwegianshadgottherefirst.Wilson’ssketchbookwasretrievedfromthetentwhereheandhiscompanionsspenttheirlastdays. Today,around1,900ofWilson’sdrawingsandsketchesareheldbyCambridge’sScottPolarResearchInstitute(SPRI),whichhousesauniquecollectionofmaterialsillustratingpolarexploration,historyandscience. “Wilsonisoneofthegreatestartistsoftheheroicageofpolarexploration,”saysHeatherLane,formerKeeperofthePolarMuseumatSPRI.“Hecapturedwithstunningaccuracyboththeanatomicalstructureandthefragilebeautyoflivingthings.”Read more about Wilson’s sketches and our research on albatrosses at www.cam.ac.uk/research, and watch out for B is for Bear, C is for Chicken, D is for Dragon as we work our way through the Cambridge Animal Alphabet.
Things18
ThingsA is for Albatross
ImagesEdwardWilson’ssketchesofalbatrosses
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Feature and film available bit.ly/1EmWZdL
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20 Spotlight:Bigdata
ith more information than ever at our fingertips, statisticians are vital to innumerable fields and industries. Welcome to the world of the datarati, where humans and machines team up to crunch the numbers.
Let’s get statted
Researchers are now refining the system to cope with the messy, incomplete
nature of real-world data
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Left to rightProfessor Zoubin [email protected] Richard Samworthrjs57@cam.ac.ukDepartmentofPureMathematicsandMathematicalStatistics
21 ResearchHorizons
“Ikeepsayingthatthesexyjobinthenext10yearswillbestatisticians,andI’mnotkidding,”HalVarian,ChiefEconomistatGooglefamouslyobservedin2009.Itseemsadifficultassertiontotakeseriously,butsixyearson,thereislittlequestionthattheirskillsareatapremium.
Indeed,wemayneedstatisticiansnowmorethanatanytimeinourhistory.Evencomparedwithadecadeago,wecannowgather,produceandconsumeunimaginablylargequantitiesofinformation.AsVarianpredicted,statisticianswhocancrunchthesenumbersarealltherage.Anewdiscipline,‘DataScience’,whichfusesstatisticsandcomputationalwork,hasemerged.
“Peopleareawashindata,”reflectsZoubinGhahramani,ProfessorofInformationEngineeringatCambridge.“Thisisoccurringacrossindustry,it’schangingsocietyaswebecomemoredigitallyconnected,andit’strueofthesciencesaswell,wherefieldslikebiologyandastronomygeneratevastamountsofdata.”
Overthepastfewyears,RichardSamworth,ProfessorofStatistics,haswatchedthedataratistepoutfromtheshadows.“It’sprobablyfairtosaythatstatisticsdidn’thavetheworld’sbestPRforquitealongtime,”hesays.“Sincethisexplosionintheamountofdatathatwecancollectandstore,opportunitieshavearisentoanswerquestionswepreviouslyhadnohopeofbeingabletoaddress.Thesedemandanawfullotofnewstatisticaltechniques.”
‘Bigdata’ismostobviouslyrelevanttothesciences,wherelargevolumesofinformationaregatheredtoanswerquestionsinfieldssuchasgenetics,astronomyandparticlephysics,butitalsohasmorefamiliarapplications.TransportauthoritiesgatherdatafromelectronicticketingsystemslikeOystercardstounderstandmoreaboutpassengermovements;supermarketscloselymonitorcustomertransactionstoreacttoshoppers’predilections.Asusersofsocialmedia,manyofusdisclosedataaboutourselvesthatisasvaluabletomarketingasitisrelevanttopsychoanalytics.Increasingly,wearealso‘lifeloggers’,monitoringourownbehaviour,health,dietandfitness,throughsmarttechnology.
Thisinformation,asGhahramanipointsout,isnouseonitsown:“Itfillsharddrives,buttoextractvaluefromit,weneedmethodsthatlearnpatternsinthedataandallowustomakepredictionsandintelligentdecisions.”Thisiswhatstatisticians,computerscientistsandmachinelearningspecialistsbringtotheparty–theybuildalgorithms,whicharecodedascomputersoftware,toseepatterns.Atroot,thedataratiareinterpreters.
Despitetheir‘sexy’newimage,however,notenoughdatascientistsexisttomeetthisrocketingdemand.Couldsomeaspectsoftheinterpretationbeautomatedusingartificialintelligenceinstead,Ghahramaniwondered?Andso,in2014andwithfundingfromGoogle,thefirstincarnationofTheAutomaticStatisticianwaslaunchedonline.Despiteminimalpublicity,3,000usersuploadeddatasetstoitwithinafewmonths.
Oncefedadataset,theAutomaticStatisticianassessesitagainstvariousstatisticalmodels,interpretsthedataand–uniquely–translatesthisinterpretationintoashortreportofreadableEnglish.Itdoesthiswithouthumanintervention,drawingonanopen-ended‘grammar’ofstatisticalmodels.Itisalsodeliberatelyconservative,onlybasingitsassessmentsonsoundstatisticalmethodology,andevencritiquingitsownapproach.
Ghahramaniandhisteamarenowrefiningthesystemtocopewiththemessy,incompletenatureofreal-worlddata,andalsoplantodevelopitsbaseofknowledgeandtoofferinteractivereports.Inthelongerterm,theyhopethattheAutomaticStatisticianwilllearnfromitsownwork:“Theideaisthatitwilllookatanewdatasetandsay,‘Ah,I’veseenthiskindofthingbefore,somaybeIshouldcheckthemodelIusedlasttime’,”heexplains.
Whileautomatedsystemsrelyonexistingmodels,newalgorithmsareneededtoextractusefulinformationfromevolvingandexpandingdatasets.Here,theroleofhumanstatisticiansisvital.
Tocharacterisetheproblem,Samworthpresentsathen-and-nowcomparison.Duringthepastcentury,atypicalstatisticalproblemmight,forinstance,havebeentounderstandtherelationshipbetweentheinitialspeedandstoppingdistanceofcarsbasedonasamplesizeof50.
Thesedays,however,wecanrecordinformationonahugenumberofvariablesatonce–theweather,roadsurface,makeofcar,winddirection,andsoon.Althoughtheextrainformationhasthepotentialtoyieldbettermodelsandreduceuncertainty,inmanyareas,thenumberoffeaturesmeasuredissohighitmayevenexceedthenumberofobservations.Identifyingappropriatemodelsinthiscontextisaseriouschallenge,whichrequiresthedevelopmentofnewalgorithms.
Toresolvethis,statisticiansrelyonaprinciplecalled‘sparsity’;theideathatonlyafewbitsofthedatasetarereallyimportant.Thestatisticianidentifiestheseneedlesinthehaystack.Variousalgorithmshavebeendevelopedtoselecttheimportantvariables,sothattheinitialsprawlofinformationstartstobecomemanageableandpatternscanbeextracted.
TogetherwithhiscolleagueDrRajenShahintheDepartmentofPureMathematicsandMathematicalStatistics,Samworthhasdevelopedamethodforrefininganysuchvariableselectiontechniquecalled‘ComplementaryPairsStabilitySelection’.Thisappliestheoriginalmethodtorandomsubsamplesofthedatainsteadofthewhole,anddoesthisoverandoveragain.Eventually,thevariablesthatappearonahighproportionofthesubsamplesemergeasthosemeritingfurtherattention.
ScanningGoogleScholarforcitationsofthepaperinwhichthiswasproposed,Samworthfindsthathisalgorithmhasbeenusedinnumerousresearchprojects.Onelooksathowtoimprovefundraisingfordisasterzones,anotherexaminespotentialbiomarkersforbreastcancersurvival,andathirdidentifiesriskfactorsconnectedwithchildhoodmalnutrition.
Howdoeshefeelwhenheseeshisworkbeingappliedsofarandwide?“It’sfunny,”hesays.“MytrainingisinmathematicsandIstillgetakickfromprovingatheorem,butit’salsorewardingtoseepeopleusingyourwork.It’softensaidthatthegoodthingaboutbeingastatisticianisthatyougettoplayineveryone’sbackyard.Isupposethisdemonstrateswhythat’strue.”
“It fills hard drives, but to extract value
from it, we need methods that
learn patterns in the data”
he ‘world’s largest IT project’ — a system with the power of one hundred million home computers
— may help to unravel many of the mysteries of our universe: how it began, how it developed and whether humanity is alone in the cosmos.
ImaginehavingtodesignacompletelyautomatedsystemthatcouldtakeallofthelivevideofromallofthehundredsofthousandsofcamerasmonitoringLondon,andautomaticallydispatchanambulanceanytimeanypersonfallsandhurtsthemselves,anywhereinthecity,withoutanyhumaninterventionwhatsoever.Thatisthescaleoftheproblemfacingtheteamdesigningthesoftwareandcomputingbehindtheworld’slargestradiotelescope.
Whenitbecomesoperationalin2023,theSquareKilometreArray(SKA)willprobetheorigins,evolutionandexpansionofouruniverse;testoneoftheworld’smostfamousscientifictheories;andperhapsevenanswerthegreatestmysteryofall—arewealone?
Constructiononthemassiveinternationalproject,whichinvolvesandisfundedby11differentcountriesand100organisations,willstartin2018.Whencomplete,itwillbeabletomaptheskyinunprecedenteddetail—10,000timesfasterand50timesmoresensitivelythananyexistingradiotelescope—anddetectextremelyweakextraterrestrialsignals,greatlyexpandingourabilitytosearchforplanetscapableofsupportinglife.
TheSKAwillbeco-locatedinSouthAfricaandAustralia,whereradiointerferenceisleastandviewsofourgalaxyarebest.Theinstrumentitselfwillbemadeupofthousandsofdishesthatcanoperateasonegigantictelescopeormultiplesmallertelescopes—aphenomenonknownasastronomicalinterferometery,whichwasdevelopedinCambridgebySirMartinRylealmost70yearsago.
“TheSKAisoneofthemajorbigdatachallengesinscience,”explainsProfessorPaulAlexander,wholeadstheScienceDataProcessor(SDP)consortium,whichisresponsiblefordesigningallofthesoftwareandcomputingforthetelescope.In2013,theUniversity’sHighPerformanceComputingServiceunveiled‘Wilkes’—oneoftheworld’sgreenestsupercomputerswiththecomputingpowerof4,000desktopmachinesrunningatonce,andakeytest-bedforthedevelopmentoftheSKAcomputingplatform.
Duringitsprojected50-yearlifespan,theSKAwillcarryoutseveralexperimentstostudythenatureoftheuniverse.Cambridgeresearcherswillfocusontwoofthese,thefirstofwhichwillfollowhydrogenthroughbillionsofyearsofcosmictime.
“Hydrogenistherawmaterialfromwhicheverythingintheuniversedeveloped,”saysAlexander.“Everythingwecanseeintheuniverseandeverythingthatwe’remadefromstartedoutinthe
formofhydrogenandasmallamountofhelium.Whatwewanttodoistofigureouthowthathappened.”
Thesecondofthetwoexperimentswilllookatpulsars—spinningneutronstarsthatemitshort,quickpulsesofradiation.Sincetheradiationisemittedatregularintervals,pulsarsalsoturnouttobeextremelyaccuratenaturalclocks,andcanbeusedtotestourunderstandingofspace,timeandgravity,asproposedbyEinsteininhisgeneraltheoryofrelativity.
Bytrackingapulsarasitorbitsablackhole,thetelescopewillbeabletoexaminegeneralrelativitytoitsabsolutelimits.Asthepulsarmovesaroundtheblackhole,theSKAwillfollowhowtheclockbehavesintheverystronggravitationalfield.
“Generalrelativitytellsusthatmassiveobjectslikeblackholeswarpthespace–timearoundthem,andwhatwecallgravityistheeffectofthatwarp,”saysAlexander.“Thisexperimentwillenableustotestourtheoryofgravitywithmuchgreaterprecisionthaneverbefore,andperhapsevenshowthatourcurrenttheoriesneedtobechanged.”
AlthoughtheSKAexperimentswilltellusmuchmorethanwecurrentlyknowaboutthenatureoftheuniverse,theyalsopresentamassivecomputingchallenge.Atanyonetime,theamountofdatagatheredfromthetelescopewillbeequivalenttofivetimestheglobalinternettraffic,andtheSKA’ssoftwaremustprocessthatvaststreamofdataquicklyenoughtokeepupwithwhatthetelescopeisdoing.
22 Spotlight:Bigdata
T
Masters of the
universehow it began, how it developed
and whether humanity is alone in the cosmos
Professor Paul [email protected]
ResearchHorizons23
Moreover,thesoftwarealsoneedstogrowandadaptalongwiththeproject.ThefirstphaseoftheSKAwillbejust10%ofthetelescope’stotalarea.Eachtimethenumberofdishesonthegrounddoubles,thecomputingloadwillbeincreasedbymorethanthesquareofthat,meaningthatthecomputingpowerrequiredforthecompletedtelescopewillbemorethan100timeswhatisrequiredforphaseone.
“Youcanalwayssolveaproblembythrowingmoreandmoremoneyandcomputingpoweratit,”saysAlexander.“Wehavetomakeitworksensiblyasasinglesystemthatiscompletelyautomatedandcapableoflearningovertimewhatthebestwayofgettingridofbaddatais.Atthemoment,scientiststendtolookatdatabutwecan’tdothatwiththeSKA,becausethevolumesarejusttoolarge.”
ThechallengesfacedbytheSKAteamechothosefacedinmanydifferentfields,andsoAlexander’sgroupisworkingcloselywithindustrialpartnerssuchasIntelandNVIDIA,aswellaswithacademicandfundingpartnersincludingtheUniversitiesofManchesterandOxford,andtheScienceandTechnologyFacilitiesCouncil.ThebigdatasolutionsdevelopedbytheSKA
Credit:SKAOrgan
isation
Image Artist’simpressionoftheSKA,whichwillbemadeupofthousandsofdishesthatoperateasonegigantictelescope
partnerstosolvethechallengesfacedbyamassiveradiotelescopecanthenbeappliedacrossarangeofindustries.
Oneofthesechallengesishowtoprocessdataefficientlyandaffordably,andconvertitintoimagesofthesky.Thetargetforthefirstphaseoftheprojectisa300‘petaflop’computerthatusesnomorethaneightmegawattsofpower:morethan10timestheperformanceoftheworld’scurrentfastestsupercomputer,forthesameamountofenergy.‘Flops’(floatingpointoperationspersecond)areastandardmeasureofcomputingperformance,andonepetaflopisequivalenttoamillionbillioncalculationspersecond.
“TheinvestmentinthesoftwarebehindtheSKAisasmuchas€50million,”addsAlexander.“Andifoursystemisn’tabletogrowandadapt,we’dbethrowingthatinvestmentaway,whichisthesameproblemasanyoneinthisareafaces.Wewantthesolutionswe’redevelopingforunderstandingthemostmassiveobjectsintheuniversetobeappliedtoanynumberofthebigdatachallengesthatsocietywillfaceintheyearstocome.”
hen is a rare disease not a rare disease? The answer: when big data gets involved. An
ambitious new research project aims to show patients that they are not alone.
Atsomepointintheircareer,everydoctorwillencounterapatientwhoseconditionperplexesthem,requiringdetailedinvestigationanddiscussionwithcolleaguesbeforediagnosisispossible.Afterall,noteverydiseaseisascommonascancer,whichaffectsaroundoneinthreeofus,ordepression,whichaffectsonein10.
DrLucyRaymondfromtheDepartmentofMedicalGeneticsspecialisesinrarediseases.Technically,thismeansdiseasesthataffectfewerthanonein2,000people,
butinfact,RaymondseeschildrenwithlearningdisabilitiessorarethattheymaybetheonlypersonintheUKtobeaffected.
Theseconditionsareusuallycausedbyoneoftwoscenarios:aspontaneouschangetotheirDNA,notinherited,ora‘recessivedisorder’wheretwocopiesofthesame,rarevariantarenecessaryforthediseaseandeachparentunwittinglypassesonacopy.Comparingthechild’sandtheirparents’genomesenablestheresearcherstopinpointthegeneresponsible.Inextremelyrarecases–wherethepatientappearstobetrulyunique–theresearchersneedtostudywhetherthesamevariantinmiceorzebrafishcreatesasimilarcondition.
“Or,”Raymondexplains,“wemightessentiallygeneratea‘datingagency’
24
W
The Big Dating Game
totrytomatchourpatientwithasimilarcasesomewhereelseintheworld.”Withthesediseasesasrareastheyare,theonlywayforthistobeviablewouldbetohaveaccesstotens,possiblyhundreds,ofthousandsofpotentialmatches:somethingtheeraof‘bigdata’makespossible.
Butthispresentsapotentialproblem:howtoshareinformationaboutthepatientwithoutbreakingtheirconfidentiality.UnlikeintheUSA,whereprojectssuchastheBroadInstitute’sExomeAggregationConsortium(ExAC)placegenomedatainthepublicdomain,dataintheUKisdepositedina‘managed-access’database:bonafideresearcherswithaclearresearchproposalareallowedaccess,andonlythenaftersigningacommitmentsayingtheywillnotattempttoidentifyindividualpatients.
“Wehavetorememberthatbigdataisgreat,butitisn’tourdata:it’speople’sdataandweneedtoberespectfulofthis.PeopleintheUKareoftenaltruistic;wehavefreeblooddonation,wehaveatremendoustraditionofpatientsgivingtohelpothers.Wemustnotjeopardisethisrelationship.
“Parentsknowthateveniffindingthegeneabnormalitythatisresponsiblewillnotimmediatelyhelptheirchild,itmayhelpensurethatothersdon’thavetowait20yearsbeforetheirchildreceivesadiagnosis.They’rehappytosharethedataonthatbasis,butarelesskeenontheideathatthey’lllosecontroloftheinformation.”
Forseveralyears,Raymond,ProfessorWillemOuwehandandDrJohnBradleyhavebeenleadingtheNationalInstituteforHealthResearchBioResourceforRareDiseasesinCambridge,whichhasrecruitedsome5,800patients.TheyarenowpartofamajorinitiativelaunchedbyPrimeMinisterDavidCameron:the100,000GenomesProject.CambridgeUniversityHospitalsNHSFoundationTrustwillleadtheEastofEnglandGenomicMedicineCentre,oneof11centresacrosstheUKaimedatrealisingthisprojectandsequencingthegenomesofpatientsaffectedbycancerorrarediseases.
“The100,000GenomesProjectisaboutgoingforwardtohavingatrulynationalhealthservice,notaprovincial,regionalhealthservice,”explainsRaymond.“Thedatawillbecentral,willbenational,willbeavailabletoresearchersandhealthcareprofessionalsacrossthecountry.”
Thesheernumberofpeoplerecruitedwillcreateapowerfuldatasetandensurethatcliniciansandresearchersdon’thavetostartfromscratcheachtimetheyencounteranewcase.Infact,thevalueofapatient’sgenomeextendsbeyondjusthelpingidentifythecauseoftheirdisease:it’salsoimportantasa‘control’tocompare
againstandhelpfindthecauseofanotherpatient’sdisease.“It’saformof‘enforcedaltruism’.Havingallthedatastoredinacentralplacemeansthateverybody’sdataactsasacontrolforeverybodyelse’s.Ithasamultiplyingeffect.”
Bigdataalsorevealsanotherwiseglaringlyobviousfactthatthename‘rarediseases’obscures:onein2,000,eveninapopulationof64million,isnotaninsignificantnumberofpeople.“Tenyearsagopeopleusedtoask‘Whystudyrarediseaseswhenthey’resorare?’It’sonlyrecentlythatpeoplearecomingroundtoseethat,withbigdata,rareiscommon.
“Rarediseasesarebecomingincreasinglytractable,too,sonowthere’sahugeinterestinthem,whichisgood:it’snotyourfaultifyourdiseaseisrare.Solvingtheseproblemsisthenextbigchallenge,”saysRaymondwithaglintinhereye.“Ifitwasalleasy,wewouldn’tbedoingit–intypicalCambridgestyle.”
Left to rightDr Lucy Raymond [email protected] Lydia [email protected]
25 ResearchHorizons
Trust me, I’m an e-doctor
Big data ‘dating agencies’ are not just for people with rare conditions. A similar concept could help patients with far more common conditions receive the best possible hospital treatment.
Addenbrooke’sHospitalinCambridgeisoneofthefirst‘eHospitals’inEngland,explainsDrLydiaDrumrightfromtheDepartmentofMedicine.Everythingthathappenstoyouwithinthehospital–everytestresult,everydiagnosis,everydrugprescribed–iscapturedinanelectronicrecord.DrumrightandhercolleagueDrAfzalChaudhrybelievethatthewealthofinformationintheserecordscanbeusedtobetterinformthetreatmentsofindividuals. “Around10–20%ofourpatientsmayhavediabetesoracutekidneyinjury,butthat’snotnecessarilywhythey’rehere,”explainsDrumright.“Theymighthavehadaheartattack,sothey’rebeingcaredforbythecardiologyteam,butthedrugsthey’represcribedmighthaveanimpactontheirotherconditions.Addedtothat,they’renowmoresusceptibletoinfection. “It’sthejuniordoctorsthathavetolookafterthepatientsanddothebasicprescribing.They’restilllearning,butneedtoknowwhichdrugsworkbestandthehospital’spolicyforprescribingantibiotics.” Couldapatient‘datingagency’notdissimilartothatsuggestedbyRaymond,basedoneveryone’smedicalrecords,helpthesejuniordoctors?“Thedoctorcansearchforotherpatientsthatlookliketheirown.Theycangobackhistoricallyandseewhatdrugswereprescribedandwhattheiroutcomeslookedlike.” Drumrightismindfulofsettingupasystemthattellsdoctorswhattoprescribe;theliteratureabouthowweinterfacewithtechnologysuggeststhatpeoplecantooeasilysurrendertheirresponsibility.Instead,it’saboutbuildingoncollectiveknowledge,“Whatwe’retryingtodoisenhancethedoctor’sexperiencesothatit’snot‘myexperienceasme’,it’stheexperienceofeveryprescriberinthehospital.”
esearchers have developed a new technique that trawls the enormous amounts of public
procurement data now available across the EU to highlight unscrupulous uses of public funds: from national and regional levels to individual contracts, companies and politicians.
TheAmericaneconomistAlanGreenspanoncedescribedcorruptionas“thewayhumannaturefunctions”,it’sjustthatsuccessfuleconomiesmanagetokeepittoaminimum.Thequestion,ofcourse,ishow.
Inthedigitalage,withits‘freedomofinformation’,corruptusesofpublicfinanceforpoliticalandcorporatecronyismshouldhavefewerdarkcornerstohidein.
Sincethelate2000s,virtuallyalldevelopedcountriesdigitisedandmadeavailablepublicprocurement
data.However,thisdatadelugecancreatetheillusionoftransparency,withafogofinformationsovastastoseemimpenetrable.
Previously,exposingcorruptionoftenreliedonthediligenceofjournalistsand
campaignerstosiftthroughdataandmakeconnections.Suchinvestigationsrequiretimeandluck,andcanbebiased.
Butnowateamofdata-drivensociologistshavecreatedanewmeasurementsystemfordetectingexploitationofpublicfinance,designedtotakeadvantageofthenewdata
avalanche.It’sasystemthatislikelytorattlethoseprofitingcorruptlyatthepublic’sexpense(andgiveactivistsgoodcausetosalivate).
Theteamdefinedkey‘redflags’:contractualsituationsthatsuggesthighrisksofcorruptbehaviour.Byunleashing
‘creeper’algorithmsandsophisticatedtext-miningprogramsonpublicprocurementdatatosnifftheseflagsout,theteamcanmaplevelsofcorruptionriskatregionalandnationalscale,trackcorruptbehaviourintendering
“Corruption is probably the number one complaint about people in power”
R
Mining
₵¤rru₱₮i¤₦For
26 Spotlight:Bigdata
organisations,andpinpointsuppliersandevenindividualcontractsthatlookfishy.
TheCorruptionRiskIndex(CRI)minesavailableinformationaboutexpenditureofpublicfinancesforpoliticalcollusion,competitionriggingandcronycapitalism,
allwithunrivalledspeedandaccuracy.DevelopedbyDrMihályFazekasandProfessorLawrenceKingfromtheDepartmentofSociology,itformsthebasisoftheDigitalWhistleblower,or‘DigiWhist’,ledbyCambridgewithaconsortiumofEuropeaninstitutes,andwhichhasjustsecured€3millionofEuropeanUnion(EU)
Horizon2020funding.“Corruptionisprobablythenumber
onecomplaintaboutpeopleinpower,buttherewerenoreallyobjectivewaystomeasurecorruption,”explainsKing.
“Usingourmethodology,institutionalisedcorruptioncanbemeasuredrightdowntothelevelofindividualcontractsandtendersinabout50countriesaroundtheglobesince2008to2009–openingupawholeuniverseofscientificandpolicyapplications.WeaimtomakeCRIavailabletocitizens,civilsocietygroupsandjournalists,to
holdpoliticiansandpoliticalpartiesaccountableforcorruptbehaviour.”
TheprojectbeganwhenFazekashadabrainwavewhileworkingonhisPhDwithKing.Inmany
developednationssince2007,wheneverthegovernmentpurchasedsomethingoveraround€20,000
(orequivalent),thecontractandtenderdataweremadedigitallyavailable.Inmanycountries,thisis
around7%oftheGDP–abigchunkoftheeconomy.
Fazekasspoketoexpertsonpublicprocurementtouncovertheboxoftricksoftenemployedtofleecethepublicpurse.Cannily,healsotalkedtocompanieswhohadfallenoutoffavoursincetheircountry’sgovernmentchanged,“sotheywerehappytotellmehowitwasbackintheday”.ThisworkeventuallyledtotheCRI’s13‘redflags’ofcorruption.
Forexample:veryshorttenderperiods(“ifatenderisissuedonaFridayandawardedonaMonday–redflag”);veryspecificorsuspiciouslycomplextenderscomparedwiththefield(“likewritingajobdescriptionforaroleyouwantyourfriendtoget”);tendermodificationsleadingtobiggercontracts;inaccessibletenderdocuments;veryfewbiddersinhighlycompetitivemarkets.DifferentscalesandcombinationsofflagsallowresearcherstocreatetheriskrankingsoftheCRI.
UsinganinitialEUgrant,theteamconductedaproofofprinciplewithdatafromHungary,SlovakiaandtheCzechRepublic.TheyfoundthatfirmswithahigherCRIscoremademoremoney:thefinalcontractvaluefrequentlycame
inmuchhigherthantheoriginalestimate.Thesecompaniesarealsomorelikelytohavepoliticiansinvolved–eithermanagingorowningthem–andberegisteredintaxhavens.
Overthenextthreeyears,theteamaimstodothisforprocurementdataacross34EuropeancountriesandtheEUinstitutions,creatingacorruptionrankingthatrangesfromnationaltocontractlevel.“Previous
corruptionindicatorstendedtobeverybluntinstruments.Wecananalyseregionsandsectorsbutalsoindividualorganisationsandloanofficers.It’sanenormouslypowerfulandfine-grainedtool,”addsKing.
TheDigiWhistprojectwillencompassfourdifferentdatalabsacrossEuropetocollectand‘clean’data,andbuild
databases.Whiletheircurrentmechanismhasmanualelements,thenextversion–developedbyDrEikoYoneki’steaminCambridge’sComputerLaboratory–willhaveself-learningalgorithmsthatrecogniseerrorsandlinktoexistingsolutionsfromthedatabase.“Afteraninitialteachingphase,itwillkindofrunonitsown,”saysFazekas.
Alltheirfindingswillbemadepubliclyavailable,withdownloadabledatabasesthatcanbeinterrogatedbyacademics,journalistsand,indeed,anyonewithaninterestinwhathappenstopublicmoneyandinholdingbusinessesandpoliticalpartiesaccountableforcorruptbehaviour.
Fazekasbelievestheirresultscouldbemarriedwithpubliccrowdsourcingtobuildamorecompletepictureoftheconsequencesofsiphoningpublicfunds.“ImagineamobileappcontaininglocalCRIdata,andastreetthat’sinbadneedofrepair.Youcanfindoutwhenpublicfundswereallocated,whoto,howthecontractwasawarded,howthecompanyranksforcorruption.Thenyoucantakeaphotoofthedamagedstreetandaddittothedatabase,taggingcontractsandcompanies,”saysFazekas,whoisalreadyworkingwithDigiWhistadvisorsonprototypes.
“Theideathatthepublicaregoingtobeabletointerrogatethisdataonaverylocalisedbasisandcontributetoitthemselvesthroughthingslikesmartphoneappsisacompellingone!”Fazekasadds.
ForKing,healthwillbeabigfocus.“Oneofthebigdebatesisaroundderegulationandprivatisationofhealth,andwhetheritincreasesefficiency.Butdoesitincreasecorruption?
“There’sbeenalotoftalkofbigdataforawhilenowbutnotmuchhascomeoutofit…ByhavingresearcherslikeMihály,whostraddlebothtechandsocialscience,Ithinkwe’llstarttoseethepotentialforbigdatatoturnintoimportantfindingsthatreallydomaketheworldbetter,”saysKing.
Left to right Professor Lawrence King [email protected] Mihály Fazekas [email protected]
₵¤rru₱₮i¤₦For
27 ResearchHorizons
Using our methodology, institutionalised
corruption can be measured right down
to the level of individualcontracts and tenders
in about 50 countriesaround the globe
illions of English language tests are taken each year by non-native English speakers.
Researchers at Cambridge’s ALTA Institute are building ‘computer tutors’ to help learners prepare for the exam that could change their lives.
“Wearrivedtoourdestinationandwelookedeachother.”
ToanativeEnglishspeaker,themistakesinthissentenceareclear.ButsomeonelearningEnglishwouldneedateachertopointthemout,explainthecorrectuseofprepositionsandchecklaterthattheyhaveimproved.Allofwhichtakestime.
Nowimaginethelearnerwasabletosubmitafewparagraphsoftextonlineand,inamatterofseconds,receiveanaccurategrade,sentence-by-sentencefeedbackon
itslinguisticqualityandusefulsuggestionsforimprovement.
ThisisCambridgeEnglishWrite&Improve–anonlinelearningsystem,or‘computertutor’,tohelpEnglishlanguagelearners–andit’sbuiltoninformationfromalmost65millionwordsgatheredovera20-yearperiodfromteststakenbyrealexamcandidatesspeaking148differentlanguageslivingin217differentcountriesorterritories.
BuiltbyProfessorTedBriscoe’steaminCambridge’sComputerLaboratory,it’sanexampleofanewkindoftoolthatusesnaturallanguageprocessingandmachinelearningtoassessandgiveguidanceontextithasneverseenbefore,andtodothisindistinguishablyfromahumanexaminer.
“AboutabillionpeopleworldwidearestudyingEnglishasafurtherlanguage,withaprojectedpeakin2050ofabout
twobillion,”saysBriscoe.“Thereare300millionpeopleactivelypreparingforEnglishexamsatanyonetime.Allofthemwillneedmultipletestsduringthislearningprocess.”
Languagetestingaffectsthelivesofmillionsofpeopleeveryyear;asuccessfultestresultcouldopenthedoortojobs,furthereducationandevencountries.
Butmarkingtestsandgivingindividualfeedbackisoneofthemosttime-consumingtasksthatateachercanface.Automatingtheprocessmakessense,saysDrNickSaville,DirectorofResearchandValidationatCambridgeAssessment.
“Humansaregoodteachersbecausetheyshowunderstandingofpeople’sproblems,butmachinesaregoodatdealingwithroutinethingsandlargeamountsofdata,seeingpatterns,and
28 Spotlight:Bigdata
M
“Machines are good at dealing with routine things and large amounts of data… these tools can free up the teacher’s time to focus on actual teaching”
ComputerTutor
givingfeedbackthattheteacherorthelearnercanuse.Thesetoolscanfreeuptheteacher’stimetofocusonactualteaching.”
CambridgeAssessment,anot-for-profitpartoftheUniversity,producesandmarksEnglishlanguageteststakenbyoverfivemillionpeopleeachyear.Twoyearsago,theyteamedupwithBriscoe’steamandProfessorMarkGalesintheDepartmentofEngineeringandDrPaulaButteryintheDepartmentofTheoreticalandAppliedLinguisticstolaunchtheAutomatedLanguageTeachingandAssessment(ALTA)Institute,directedbyBriscoe.TheiraimistocreatetoolstosupportlearnersofbothwrittenandspokenEnglish.
UnderpinningWrite&Improveisinformationgleanedfromavastdatasetofquality-scoredtext–theCambridgeLearnerCorpus.BuiltbyCambridgeUniversityPressandCambridgeAssessment,thisistheworld’slargestcollectionofexampaperstakenbyEnglishlanguagelearnersaroundtheworld.
Eachtesthasbeentranscribedandinformationgatheredaboutthelearner’sage,languageandgradeachieved.Crucially,allerrors(grammar,spelling,misuse,wordsequences,andsoon)havebeenannotatedsothatacomputercanprocessthenaturallanguageusedbythelearner.
Write&Improveworksbysupervisedmachinelearning–havinglearntfromtheCorpusoferrors,itcanmakeinferencesaboutnewunannotateddata.SinceitslaunchasabetaversioninMarch2014,theprogramhasattractedover20,000repeatusers.Andeachnewpieceoftextitreceivescontinuesthisprocessoflearningandimprovingitsaccuracy,whichisalreadyrunningatalmostequaltothemostexperiencedhumanmarkers.
Briscoebelievesthatthissortoftechnologyhasthepotentialtochangethelandscapeofteachingandassessmentpractices:“Textbooksarerapidlymorphingintocoursewarewherepeoplecantesttheirunderstandingastheygoalong.Thisfitswithpedagogicalframeworksinwhichtheemphasisisonindividualprofilingofstudentsandgivingthemtailoredadviceonwhattheycanmostusefullymoveontonext.”
Heregardstheset-upofALTAasthe“besttype”oftechnologytransfer:“Wedoappliedresearchandhaveapipelinefortransferringthistoproducts.Butthatpipelinealsoproducesdatathatfeedsbackintoresearch.”
ThecomplexalgorithmsthatunderpinWrite&ImprovearebeingfurtherdevelopedandcustomisedbyiLexIR,acompanyBriscoeandotherssetup
toconvertuniversityresearchintopracticalapplications;andanewcompany,EnglishLanguageiTutoring,hasbeencreatedtodeliverWrite&Improveandsimilarweb-basedproductsviathecloudandtocapturethedatathatwillfeedbackintotheR&Defforttoimprovethetutoringproducts.
Now,theresearchersarelookingbeyondtexttospeech.AssessingspokenEnglishbringsasetofverydifferentchallengestoassessingwrittenEnglish.Thetechnologyneedstobeabletocopewiththecomplexitiesofthehumanvoice:therhythm,stressandintonationofspeech,theuhmsandahhs,thepauses.
“Thefactthatyoucangetspeechrecognitiononyourphonetendstoimplyinsomepeople’smindsthatspeechrecognitionissolved,”saysGales,ProfessorofInformationEngineering.“Butthetechnologystillstruggleswithsecondlanguagespeech.Weneedtobeabletoassesstherichnessinpeople’sspokenresponses,includingwhetherit’sthecorrectexpressionofemotionorthedevelopmentofanargument.”Galesisdevelopingnewformsofmachinelearning,againusingdatabasesofexamplesofspokenEnglish.
“Thedata-drivenapproachistheonlywaytocreatetoolslikethese,”addsBriscoe.“Buildingautomatedteststhatusemultiplechoiceiseasy.Thestuffwearedoingismessy,andit’sever-changing.We’veshownthatifyoutrainasystemtothisyear’sexamondatafrom10yearsagothesystemislessaccuratethanifyoutrainitondatafromlastyear.”
Thisiswhy,saysBriscoe,it’sunimaginabletoreachapointwherethemachineshavelearnedenoughtounderstandandpredictalmostallofthetypicalmistakeslearnersmake:“Languageisamovingtarget.Englishisconstantlybeingglobalised;vocabularychanges;grammarevolves;andmethodsofassessmentchangeasprogressinpedagogyhappen.Idon’tthinktherewilleverbeapointwhenwecansay‘wearedonenow’.”
Built on information from almost
65
million words gatheredover a 20-year
period from tests taken by real exam
candidates
speaking
148 different languages
living in
217 different countries
or territories
Professor Ted [email protected]
29 ResearchHorizons
esearchers are using social media data to build a picture of the personalities of millions, changing
core ideas of how psychological profiling works. They say it could revolutionise employment and commerce, but the work must be done transparently.
In2007,DrDavidStillwellbuiltanapplicationforanonlinenetworkingsitethatwasstartingtoexplode:Facebook.Hisapp,myPersonality,alloweduserstocompletearangeofpsychometrictests,getfeedbackontheirscoresandshareitwithfriends.Itwentviral.
By2012,morethansixmillionpeoplehadcompletedthetest,withmanyusersallowingresearchersaccesstotheirprofiledata.Thishugedatabaseofpsychologicalscoresandsocialmediainformation,includingstatusupdates,friendshipnetworksand‘Likes’,isthelargestofitskindinexistence.Itcontains
themoods,musingsandcharacteristicsofmillions–aholygrailofpsychologicaldataunthinkableuntilafewyearsago.
StillwellandcolleaguesatCambridge’sPsychometricsCentreprovidedopenaccesstothedatabaseforotheracademics.Academicresearchersfromover100institutionsgloballynowuseit,producing39journalarticlessince2011.
Meanwhile,theCambridgePsychometricsteamdevisedtheirowncomplexalgorithmstoreadpatternsinthedata.Resultingpublicationscausedmediascrums,withapaperpublishedinearly2015generatingnervousheadlinesaroundtheworldaboutcomputersknowingyourpersonalitybetterthanyourparents.
Buthowsurprisingisthisreally,giventheamountwecasuallyshareaboutourselvesonlineeveryday?Andnotjustthroughsocialmedia,butalsothroughwebbrowsing,internetpurchases,andsoon.Everyinteractioncreatesatrace,
whichalladduptoa‘digitalfootprint’ofwhoweare,whatwedoandhowwefeel.
Weknowthat,behindcloseddoors,corporationsandgovernmentsusethisdatato‘target’us–ouronlineactionsmarkusoutasfuturecustomers,orevenpossibleterrorists–and,formany,thisreductioninprivacyisadisturbingfactof21st-centurylife.
TheCambridgeresearchersbelievethattheneweraofpsychological‘bigdata’canbeusedtoimprovecommercialandgovernmentservicesaswellasfurtheringscientificresearch,butopennessisessential.
“Ifyouaskacompanytomaketheirdataavailableforresearch,usuallyitwillgotosomecorporateresponsibilityofficewhichdeemsittoorisky–there’snothinginitforthem.Whereasifyoutellthemyoucanimprovetheirbusiness,butaspartofthattheymakesomedataavailabletotheresearchcommunity,youfindalotmore
R
30 Spotlight:Bigdata
opendoors,”saysStillwell,whoco-directstheCentre.
AroundhalfoftheCentre’scurrentworkinvolvescommercialcompanies,whocometothemfor“statisticalexpertisecombinedwithpsychologicalunderstanding”–ofteninanattempttoimproveonlinemarketing,anareastillinitsinfancy.
TheteamhasrecentlylaunchedaninterfacecalledApplyMagicSauce,basedonthemyPersonalityresults,whichcanbeusedasamarketingandresearchtoolthatturnsdigital‘footprints’intopsycho-demographicprofiles.
“Ifyouusetheinternetyouwillbetargetedbyadvertisers,butatthemomentthattargetinghappensintheshadowsandisn’tparticularlyaccurate,”saysVesselinPopov,theCentre’sdevelopmentstrategist.
“Weallhavetosufferadvertising,soperhapsit’sbettertoberecommendedproductsthatwemightactuallywant?Usingopt-inanonymouspersonalityprofilingbasedondigitalrecordssuchasFacebookLikesorLast.fmscorescouldvastlyimprovetargetedadvertisingandallowuserstosetthelevelofdata-sharingtheyarecomfortablewith,”saysPopov.“Thisdatacouldthen,withthepermissionofusers,beusedtoenrichscientificresearchdatabases.”
Measuringpsychologicaltraitshaslongbeendifficultforresearchersandboringforparticipants,usuallyinvolvinglaboriousquestionnaires.Thiswillsoundfamiliartoanyonewhohasusedanemploymentagencyorjobcentre.Theteamarenowbuildingontheirpreviousworkwithalgorithmstotakepsychometrictestingevenfurtherintounchartedterritory–videogames.Jobcentresmightbethefirsttobenefit.
“Ajobcentregetsaboutsevenminuteswitheachjobseekereverytwoweeks,soprovidingpersonalisedsupportinthattimeischallenging,”explainsStillwell.“Weareworkingwithacompanytobuildagamethatmeasuresaperson’sstrengthsina‘gamified’waythat’sengagingbutstillaccurate.”
In‘JobCity’,currentlyaniPadproofofconcept,usersexplorejobopportunitiesinasimulatedcity.Thegamemeasurespsychologicalstrengthsandweaknessesalongtheway,offeringcareersuggestionsattheend,andprovidingthejobcentrewithfeedbacktohelpthemguidetheapplicant.Theteamhastestedthegamewithagroupofunder-25sandtheresultsarepromising.
FortheCentre’sDirectorProfessorJohnRust,theteam’sbackgroundinpsychologymeanstheydon’tlosesightofthepeoplewithintheoceansofdata:“We’redealingwithorganisationsthatareusing‘bigdata’tomakeactuarialdecisions
aboutwhogetslentmoney,whogetsajob–youdon’twantthisleftsolelytocomputerengineerswhojustseestatistics.”
“Wewantmachinesthatcanrecogniseyouasaperson.MuchoftheinformationfordoingthatalreadyexistsintheserversofGoogle,Facebook,Amazon,andsoon.Yoursearchesandstatusesareallreflectionsofquestions,experiencesandemotionsyouhave:allpsychometricdata.It’sthebasisforafuturewherecomputerscantrulyinteractwithhumanbeings.”
Cyberspacehas,forRust,openeda‘Pandora’sbox’that’stakenpsychologicaltestingtoanewlevel.But,hesays,thecurrentexplosioninbigdatabearscomparisontoapreviousshiftthathappenedacenturyago–theadventofIQtestsshortlybeforetheFirstWorldWar.Millionsofservicemenweretestedtodetermineroleallocationwithinthemilitary.Suddenly,saysRust,overexcitedscientistshadmassivepsychologicaldatasets.IQtestsinfluencedsocietieslongafterthewar,leadinghesaystosomeofthemostshamefulepisodesofthe20thcenturyincludingscientificracismandsterilisationofthe‘feebleminded’.
“Todayyouhaveanotherpsychologicalbigdatasituationbeingusedtochallengeaperceivedglobalthreat:terrorism.Governmentdatascientistshuntingwould-beterroristsareenthusiasticallyadoptingbigdata,buttherewillbesocialconsequencesagain.Inmanyways,wealreadyhaveBigBrother–whateverthatnowmeans,”Rustsays.
“Thenewpsychologicaldatarevolutionneedsseriousresearch,andethicaldebatesaboutitneedtobehappeninginthepublicarena–andthey’renot.Wehavearesponsibilitytosaytopeopleworkingonthisinsecretincompaniesandinstitutions:‘You’vegottocomeanddiscussthisinanopenplace’.It’swhatuniversitiesarefor.”
It contains the moods, musings
and characteristics of millions – a holy
grail of psychological data unthinkable
until a few years ago
31 ResearchHorizons
Left to rightDr David [email protected] John [email protected] [email protected]
“What we’re trying to do is develop processing frameworks that would allow this data to be useful and to be used, without the somewhat creepy feeling that you’re constantly being watched”
32
W
hat power can individuals have over their data when their every move online is being
tracked? Researchers at the Cambridge Computer Laboratory are building new systems that shift the power back to individual users, and could make personal data faster to access and at much lower cost. It’safactofmodernlife–witheveryclick,everytweet,everyFacebookLike,wehandoverinformationaboutourselvestoorganisationswhoaredesperatetoknowallofoursecrets,inthehopethatthosesecretscanbeusedtosellussomething.
Companieshavebeencollectingeverypossiblescrapofinformationfromtheircustomerssincelongbeforetheinternetage,butwithmorepowerfulcomputers,cheaperstorageandubiquitousonlineuse,themethodsorganisationsusetogatherinformationaboutpeoplehavebecomeever-moresophisticated.Andsometimesthoseorganisationsknowusbetterthanourownfamiliesorfriends.
Forexample,severalyearsago,dataanalysistoolsusedbytheUSretailerTargethadbecomesoprecisethattheywereabletodetermine,withastonishingaccuracy,whetherawomanwaspregnantandhowfaralongshewas,basedonher
purchaseofcertainproducts.Andinoneparticularlyembarrassingincident,Targetknewthatateenagegirlwaspregnantbeforeherfatherdid,muchtoherfather’sdispleasure.
“WhatTargetlearnedfromthatincidentisthatmarketingtooaccuratelycanreallymakepeoplesqueamish,”saysProfessorJonCrowcroftoftheUniversity’sComputerLaboratory.“Butiftheymadetheirmarketingalittlelessaccuratebyincreasingtheamountofprivacytheygivetheircustomers,theyfoundtheycanstillretainorincreasetheircustomerbasewithoutmakingpeoplefeelasifthey’rebeingspiedon.”
I always feel like somebody’s watching me…
Spotlight:Bigdata
ThetypeofsystemthatCrowcroftandMortierenvisionisoneinwhichtheuserhasthescopetoallowaccesstotheirdataonacase-by-casebasis,ratherthanitbeharvestedwhethertheylikeitornot:computationsareperformedwherethedataisgathered,andtheresultsarepushedbacktotheorganisationthatwantsthedata.
“Wecanchangethebigdataproblemcompletelybymovingwherethedataisprocessed,”explainsMortier.“Ratherthanhavingsystemswhereallofthedataisgatheredinsomehugecentrallocationandprocessed,ifyoureconstructthesystemsothatthedataisprocessedinthesameplaceit’sgathered,individualswouldbeabletotakesomeofthecontroloftheirinformationbackfromcorporationsandsurveillanceorganisations.Insteadofonehugecentralprocessingnode,wewanttoseebillionsofsmallernodes,whichwouldmakeinformationquickertoaccess,andcouldpotentiallybestoredatloweroverallcost.”
CrowcroftandMortierhavedesignedandpartiallybuiltsystemswhereaperson’sdatastayslocaltothem,andtheycanhavetheoptiontodecidewhatissharedandwithwhom.Forexample,apatientcansharetheirhealthcaredatawiththeirGP,buttheGPwouldhavetogetauthorisationfromthepatientbeforesharingthatdatawithapharmaceuticalcompany.
“Peoplerealisethey’rebeingmarketedto,butIdon’tthinktheyrealisethescaleofit–itreallyisahiddenmenace,”
saysCrowcroft.“Thepointisthatwecouldbuildsystemsthatcouldstopthatcompletely,andre-enableitonthebasisofalevelplayingfield.Wewanttoseesystemswherepeoplehaveagencyovertheirdata,givingthemtheabilitytoalloworpreventcertaintypesofaccess.”
Contrarytowhatsomepeoplemayassumeaboutthenatureofdigitallife,addsCrowcroft,thevastmajorityofpeoplehighlyvaluetheirownprivacy.HepointstothelaunchandthenrecallofGoogleGlass,awearablecomputerwornlikeeyeglasses.“Peoplestartedwearingthesethingsintorestaurantsandotherdinerswouldn’tputupwithit,becausetheydidn’twanttoberecordedwhileeatingtheirlunch–itreallycreepedpeopleout,”hesays.“Andthat’sinapublicspace:imaginethesamesortofthinghappeninginaprivatespace.It’sabouttheasymmetryandtheideathatthisisbeingdonetoyouandyouhavenocomeback.Theproblemwithdigitalinfrastructuresisyoudon’tseethem,andtoacertainextentcompaniesdependonpeoplenotunderstandingthem–wecanbuildsystemswheretherearemechanismsthroughwhichtheycanbeunderstood.”
CrowcroftandMortierrecognisethatthey’llneverconvinceeveryonetoditchcloudcomputingandswitchtoadecentralisedsystem.Butthatisn’ttheirgoal.“Ittakesawhiletoshowthatnewwaysofdoingthingscanreallywork,”saysCrowcroft.“Ifthesesortsofsystemsbecomeareasonablywidelyusedalternative,itwillgoalongwaytowardskeepingcompaniesandcloudstorageprovidershonest.Theverysmallnumberofprovidersleadstotheexploitationofthenetworkeffect,wheretheyhaveastrongmonopolisticpositionoveracertaintypeofdata.Andmonopoliesarenotgoodforeconomies.Ifadecentralisedsystemismoreethical,enoughpeopleusingitmayincentivisethebigproviderstobemoreethicaltoo.”
Crowcroft’sresearchisintheareaof‘privacybydesign’–systemsthatallowustoliveinthedigitalworldandprotectourprivacyatthesametime.AstheconceptoftheInternetofThings–internet-connectedwashingmachines,toastersandtelevisions–becomesreality,Crowcroftinsiststhatprivacybydesignisneededtoaddressthemassivepowerimbalancethatoccurswhenourpersonaldataissharedwith,andsoldby,corporations,governmentsandotherorganisations.
Butprivacybydesigndoesn’tmeandisconnectingfromtheonlineworldandputtingonatinfoilhat–farfromit.“There’salreadyalotofdatastoredabouteachandeveryoneofus–thethingswebuy,thefoodweeat,thehealthissueswehave–andforeachofthesemarketsegments,thereareperfectlylegitimateusesforthatdata,”addsCrowcroft.“Collectinghealthcaredataisfantasticallyusefulfortrackingpandemics,preventativecare,more-efficienttreatment,publichealth–thoseareallperfectlyreasonableandpositiveusesforbigdata.Atthesametime,mostsitesgatherinformationinordertotargetadsmoreaccurately,andmostpeopleareactuallyokaywiththat.Sothequestionthenbecomes,whatisprivacybydesign?”
“Whatwe’retryingtodoisdevelopprocessingframeworksthatwouldallowthisdatatobeusefulandtobeused,withoutthesomewhatcreepyfeelingthatyou’reconstantlybeingwatched,”saysCrowcroft’scolleagueDrRichardMortier.
Left to right Professor Jon Crowcroft [email protected] Richard [email protected]
33 ResearchHorizons
34 Insideout
Inside outTragedy in Nepal
ollowing the recent devastation in Nepal, Evan Miles reflects on Himalayan glaciology and the
natural hazards faced by those living in an area to which he was about to return for fieldwork.
April25,2015.IawokeinCambridgekeentofinishpreparationsandpackingformyfifthseasonoffieldworkintheLangtangValleyofNepal.Iwasduetoflyoutthefollowingday.Icheckedmyemailforlast-minuteupdates,andwasjerkedoutofanysenseofroutinebythetitle‘BigearthquakejusthitNepal’. AbarrageofTwitter,Facebook,newsandmediasearches,SkypecallsandinquirieslastedfortherestofthedayasmycolleaguesandIbegantorealisethescaleoftheevent.Atfirstwewerewonderingifwecouldgettoourfieldsitebut,inaSkypeconferencethatevening,itbecameclearthatourscientificworkwasoutofthequestion.Ourprioritiesshiftedfromscientifictohumanitarian–tryingtocontactourfriendsandcolleagues,andgatherandsharethescantinformationfrombeyondKathmandu. Geoscientistshadhighlightedthelikelihoodofan8.0-magnitudeearthquakefordecades,andreportshadspecifically
F assessedthehumanandfinancialconsequencesofsuchatremor.ButNepalisaverypoorcountry–itstrugglestopaveroadsconnectingitswidespreadmountainousterrainandhasnorealmeansforemergencypreparednessinthemodernsenseoftheword.Earlierthisyear,aTurkishAirlinesplanecrash-landedinKathmandu,anditwasseveraldaysbeforethecountry’ssingleinternationalrunwaycouldbereopenedtocommercialflights. Asscientists,wehavetoacknowledgetherisksofanystudysite,andhadnotoverlookedthepotentialforanearthquake,orthesevereavalanchesandlandslidesthatoccurfrequentlyinthemountains. However,theNepaleseHimalayaalsopresentaknowledgegapwithinglaciology:whentheInternationalPanelonClimateChangepublishedits4thAssessmentReportin2007,thecommunityofglacierscientistshadlittleunderstandingofHimalayanglaciersowingtoremoteness,weatherandaltitude.ItwasthereforeapriorityforfurtherresearchandthemotivationformyPhD,workingwithDrsIanWillisandNeilArnoldattheScottPolarResearchInstitute,andcollaboratingwithresearchersinSwitzerland,theNetherlandsandNepal.
ThefocusofourstudieshasbeentheLirungGlacierintheupperLangtangValleynorthofKathmandu.It’sagoodexampleofthedebris-coveredglaciersthatarecommoninHighMountainAsia,whereavalanchesandrockfallsdepositlargeamountsofrubbleontotheice. Therubbleaccumulatesatthesurfaceastheicemelts,formingablanketcomprisingsand,gravel,cobblesandboulders,whichsubstantiallyaltershowtheglacierinteractswiththeatmosphere.Thistypeofglacierismuchlessunderstoodthanitsclean-surfacecounterparts. OurstudiesonLirungGlacierareaimedatresolvingaconundrumaboutdebris-coveredglaciersthatcanhelpus
Geoscientists had highlighted the likelihood
of an 8.0-magnitude earthquake for decades
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Evan Miles [email protected] ScottPolarResearchInstitute DepartmentofGeography
understandhowtheseglacierswillrespondtoclimatechange. Thethickdebrisshouldreducethemeltofglacierice,butmanydebris-coveredglaciersseemtobemeltingmuchfasterthanexpected–nearlyonparwithclean-iceglaciers.Wethinkthisisduetothepresenceofexceptionalsurfacefeatures–bareice-cliffsandsmalllakesontopoftheglacier–that,althoughcoveringonlyafractionoftheglacier’ssurface,appeartomeltmuchfasterthanthesurfaceunderthedebrislayer. Afteryearsofdetailedobservations,ourteamisdevelopingnumericalmodelsofice-cliffsandponds,whichdolooktobepartlyresponsibleforthehighratesoficelossfromHighMountainAsia’sglaciers.Thisisanimportantsteptounderstandingtheregion’sresponsetoclimatechange,astheyarenotyetaccountedforinprojectionsofglaciermeltinafutureclimate. Now,though,sciencehastotakeabackseat.It’sunclearhoworwhenourobservationswillcontinue,buttheearthquakeisnotsimplyanotherobstacleforourresearch.Duringfourfieldseasons,we’vebuiltrelationshipswithNepalivillagersalongtheLangtangValleyandscientistsinKathmandu.ThedestructioninKathmanduisterrible–largenumbersofcasualties,WorldHeritageSitesdestroyed–butreportssuggestoutlyingvillageshavefaredevenworse,withfewbuildingshavingwithstoodthetremors,anddevastatingavalanchesandlandslideswidespread.TheLangtangValleyisnoexception,asseveralvillagesappeartohavebeenwipedoutentirelybylandslidesburyinghundredsofvillagersandalongTibetanheritage. Wewonderaboutourinstruments,butwearemuchmoreconcernedaboutthevillagerswe’vegottoknow.Forthepresent,wearetryingtomaplandslides,toprioritiseforimmediaterescueoperationsandtheneventualrebuilding.
Evan is funded by a Gates Cambridge PhD Studentship, the University’s Fieldwork Fund, Trinity College’s Rouse Ball and Eddington Fund, the Department of Geography’s Philip Lake and William Vaughan Lewis Fund, and the Scott Polar Research Institute B.B. Roberts Fund
T +44(0)1223765443 E [email protected] W cam.ac.uk/research f facebook.com/cambridge.university twitter.com/cambridge_uni youtube.com/cambridgeuniversity instagram.com/cambridgeuniversity
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CoverBigdata‘datingagencies’arebeingusedtomatchpatientswhohaverarediseasesworldwidetohelpcliniciansdiagnoseandtreatthem;findoutmoreonp.24thisissue.