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Jennifer Q. BelgeEric G. Hoffman
Plymouth State University
11/06/08Northeast Regional
Operational Workshop
Preferred Regions of Convective Development over
Northern New England as a Function of Flow Regime: Southwesterly Flow Case
Studies
http://www.eoearth.org/upload/thumb/6/61/Mature_thunderstorm_cloud.jpg/250px-Mature_thunderstorm_cloud.jpg
Previous Work- Evan Lowery (2008) 5 year climatology of northern New
England thunderstormsKGYX radar domainApril – September2003-2007SCIT
Spatial distribution of cells as a function of large-scale flow at 700 hPa
Results- Lowery (2008)
SW FLOW5 clusters
○ Central Oxford, Franklin and Somerset counties in ME
○ Just south of Belknap, Merrimack border in NH
○ Southern Oxford county in ME
○ Northern Grafton county in NH
○ Southern Somerset county in ME
Grafton
Oxford
FranklinSomerset
Coos
CarrollBelknap
Merrimack
York
Strafford
Rockingham
Hillsborough
Sullivan
Cheshire
Piscataquis
Aroostook
Cumberland
Androscoggin
Kennebec
Penobscot
WaldoKnox
LincolnSagadahoc
NW FLOW 3 clusters
Border of Strafford (NH) and York (ME) counties
Tri-county border of Oxford (ME), Carroll (NH) and York(ME)
Border of Grafton (NH) and Coos (NH) county
Motivation
Lowery’s study did not address:Why are there preferred regions of
development with respect to flow regime?
Differences between flow regimes? Forecasting potential
KGYX
Scientific Questions
Why do thunderstorm cells initiate where they do as a function of large-scale flow?SW and NW @ 700 hPa only
Are there certain meteorological patterns present in the mesoscale environment that is conducive to convection in these regions found by Lowery (2008)?
Data and Methodology
Case StudiesRadar reflectivity examined for each
case from May-September 2007 only Case study selection
1.Cells were to initiate in the significant areas identified by Lowery (2008)
2.Cells were to not be associated with a frontal zone○ Eliminate influence of frontal boundary
in mesoscale analysis
Results
Radar Sounding 12 UTC
KGYX Surface analysis RUC
Synoptic overview
12 UTC LAPS
KGYXMesoscale
analysis17 UTC
July 13, 2007
Synoptic Analysis12 UTC
Surface Analysis 12 UTC
500 hPa Height 12 UTC
250 hPa Height and Wind 12 UTC
Sounding 12 UTC
Mesoscale Analysis17 UTC
Surface Analysis 18 UTC
Surface Dew Point 17 UTC
Surface CAPE 17 UTC
Surface Flow Vectors and Topo 17 UTC
Surface Flow Vectors and Topo 17 UTC
Surface Convergence 17 UTC
Mean Sea Level Pressure 17 UTC
Conclusions
Preliminary Results July 13, 2007 SW
Flow CaseMoisture &
instability sufficient over entire area○ Genesis region
was not uniqueSurface
convergence and corresponding surface trough could provide the necessary lift
Results from the August 2, 2007 case show the same results and conclusions
WORKS CITED
Lowery, E.M, 2008: Using the WSR-88D Storm Structure Product to Develop a Climatology of Northern New England Thunderstorms as a Function of Large-Scale Flow, Plymouth State University, Master of Science Thesis
WORKS CITED
Lowery, E.M, 2008: Using the WSR-88D Storm Structure Product to Develop a Climatology of Northern New England Thunderstorms as a Function of Large-Scale Flow, Plymouth State University, Master of Science Thesis
Questions?
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