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Roger March@2010
Between 1986 and 2000, Japanese outbound grew 323%.
Between 2001-‐2010, Japanese outbound has
fallen 13%.
In 1997, 814,000 Japanese visited.
In 2009, 332,000 Japanese visited
Australia.
Australia’s market share peaked in 1993 at 5.6%.
In 2009, our market share was 2.1%, lower than our share in 1985.
From 2006-‐2009, the Japanese outbound market has fallen 12%.
Australia’s Japanese market has halved, from
651,000 to 332,000.
In 2000, China & Korea accounted for 26% of outbound travel.
In 2009, China & Korea accounted for 41% of
outbound travel.
Roger March@2010
Japanese Outbound Travel: 1985-‐2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Mill
ion
s
Roger March@2010
The Rise of Japanese Tourism to Australia…
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
Roger March@2010
In 1994, the Australian Tourist Commission, released, following the announcement Sydney would host the 2000 Olympics, that Japan would generate 1.45 million visitors in that year and 1.82M by 2004.
Roger March@2010
The Decline of Australia’s Japanese market…
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Roger March@2010
Queensland reflects Australia
Roger March@2010
Australia’s Market Share, 1985-‐2009
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Roger March@2010
Roger March@2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Change in Market Share, Selected Regions & Countries
Hawaii U.S. Main China Resort Australia
China
Resort destinations
US Mainland
Hawaii
Australia
Roger March@2010
Market Share by Main DesWnaWon: 1998-‐2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Europe NE Asia SE Asia Nth America Oceania Hawaii Guam/Saipan Others
Percen
t
DesAnaAon
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009
Source: Market Insight 2010, JTB FoundaWon
Roger March@2010
Changes in Market Share of Major DesWnaWons: 1999-‐2009
China , 90.0%
Sth Korea, 63.0%
Taiwan, 30.0%
HK, 26.0%
Thailand, 0.0%
US Mainland, -‐6.0%
Guam, -‐10.0%
Hawaii, -‐35.0%
Singapore, -‐40.0%
Australia, -‐51.0%
-‐60.0% -‐40.0% -‐20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
Source: JNTO staWsWcs
Change in Market Share between 1999-‐2009 (as % difference)
Losers
Winners
Roger March@2010
• Japanese tourism has been stagnant for 10 years
• Australia’s share of the Japanese market has been declining for 17 years
• Something unparalleled has happened to Australian demand in recent years
• The phenomenon of An-‐kin-‐tan is profound
• The rise of China is drawing people away from other desWnaWons.
Roger March@2010
Japanese market decline
External factors
Internal Factors
Unknown factors
Roger March@2010
External factors: non-‐controllables
• Foreign exchange • Economic cycles & downturns • Japanese consumpWon & leisure pacerns • Japanese demographic changes • Intensifying compeWWon • Investment in tourism • Airline events – ANA & Northwest withdraw, Ansec collapses, Jet★ to Japan
Roger March@2010
Internal factors: controllables • Image of Australia in Japan: Big Nature &
cuddly animals
• AdverAsing campaigns
• Coherence of markeAng efforts in Japan between TA, STOs and individual operators
• RelaAonship management with Japanese travel
• Tourism Australia’s conflicAng prioriAes
• Servicing the Japanese tourist in Australia (& Hawaii)
• Weak tourism management in key desAnaAons
Roger March@2010
Reasons for Decline in Japanese Market: Survey of Tourism Operators
CompeWtor desWnaWons, An-‐Kin-‐tan
Airline capacity
Strength of AUD
Campaigns ineffecWve or inconsistent
Lack of new offerings by Australia
Decline in Japan economy
Australia no longer flavour of the month
Costs in Australia
Roger March@2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Hawaii Australia
Market shares of Australia and Hawaii: 1992-‐2009
Roger March@2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Hawaii Australia Linear (Hawaii) Linear (Australia)
Market shares of Australia and Hawaii: 1992-‐2001
Roger March@2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Hawaii Australia
Market shares of Australia and Hawaii: 2002-‐2009
Roger March@2010
Some explanaAons?
Roger March@2010
Roger March@2010
Japanese travel agents
are well trained in the Australian market…
773
446 446
304 297
220 257
215 204 178
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Source: JATA, 'Tsuji ga kataru ryokogyo' (2010)
Registered DesAnaAon Specialists by DesAnaAon (2010)
Roger March@2010
…and it ain’t exchange rates
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Yen/A$
Japanese Visitors Exchange rate
Despite strengthening yen, numbers fall
Despite strengthening yen, numbers fall
Roger March@2010
Roger March@2010
Young Japanese are deserAng overseas travel.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1993 1998 2003 2009
Figure 4: Market share of outbound travel by age: 1990-‐2009
60+ 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 under 20
The 60+ plus market is now equal largest.
Market share of outbound travel
by age: 1990-‐2009
Roger March@2010
The overseas wedding market is stagnant.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Net sa
les, m
illions of y
en
Year
Watabe Wedding, Net Sales: 2005-‐2009
DomesWc Overseas
Roger March@2010
‘Japan Goes From Dynamic to Disheartened’ NYTimes October 17, 2010 Weddings in Osaka, Japan, now tend to be small, low-‐budget affairs, not the lavish celebraWons once favored by couples.
Hisakazu Matsuda, president of Japan
Consumer MarkeWng Research InsWtute calls Japanese in their 20s the “consumpWon-‐haters”.
He esWmates that by the Wme this generaWon hits their 60s, their habits of frugality will have cost the Japanese economy $420
billion in lost consumpWon.
Roger March@2010
No wonder Japan is our worst performing repeater market.
“What was the reason you chose Australia?”
2000 1. To cuddle a koala 50% 2. Never been before 34% 3. Safety aspect 27% 4. To experience nature 26% 5. For the beaches 21%
2009 1. To cuddle a koala 43%
2. Never been before 33%
3. To experience nature 40%
4. For the beaches 33%
5. To see a parWcular place 30%
6. Safety aspect 19%
Source: JTAQ/JGCT Survey
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
THE IMAGE OF AUSTRALIA IS ENTRENCHED IN THE MINDS
OF JAPANESE
Roger March@2010
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Comparison of Monthly Percentages of Japanese Outbound And Australian Inbound (1998)
Aust Inbound Jpn Outbound
Seasonality paferns have shiged
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Comparison of Monthly Percentages of Japanese Outbound And Australian Inbound (2009)
Jpn Outbound Aust Inbound
2009 1998
Roger March@2010
Roger March@2010
Early industry summits, late government iniAaAves
Roger March@2010
Shiging trends & issues
Roger March@2010
Roger March@2010
Governments don’t work. Markets do.
Roger March@2010
Being a preferred desAnaAon
means nothing.
Roger March@2010
3-‐Year Forecasts V Actual Inbound Numbers: 1997-‐2010 Date of published forecast For Year… Forecast Actual Difference
Oct-‐92 1995 887,000 783,000 104,000
Apr-‐95 1997 856,000 814,000 42,000
Jun-‐96 1998 998,000 751,000 247,000
Jun-‐97 1999 1,026,000 707,000 319,000
Nov-‐98 2000 780,000 721,000 59,000
Nov-‐98 2001 849,000 674,000 175,000
Aug-‐99 2002 886,000 715,000 171,000
Feb-‐00 2003 957,000 628,000 329,000
Feb-‐01 2004 777,000 710,000 67,000
May-‐03 2006 758,000 651,000 107,000
May-‐04 2007 805,000 573,000 232,000
Apr-‐05 2008 713,000 457,000 256,000
Apr-‐06 2009 592,000 355,000 237,000
Aug-‐08 2010 399,000 373,000* 26,000
*Forecast based on 5% increase to June 2010
Roger March@2010
Are you Ared, like Hawaii?
Roger March@2010
“Fall in love with your customer, not your product.”
• Gold Coast Tourism execuWve says he believes the ‘Famous for Fun’ campaign brings to life everything the Gold Coast is all about.
• "We're an exhilaraWng, fun holiday desWnaWon for families mainly, and this theme is something Las Vegas would kill for.
• "It's so powerful. When I saw all the imagery that goes with it, to be quite honest, I got quite emoWonal because we're lucky enough to live in this place 52 weeks a year. It's got everything and most other locaWons have got one of what we have many of." Las Vergas reposiWoned itself away from gambling to family desWnaWon. SMH Oct 9
Roger March@2010
Any good news?!
• Japanese outbound market is up 8.3% through September
• Japanese visitors to Australia are up 17% through August (+6.5% to Hawaii)
• School excursion market remains strong (#1)
Roger March@2010
The real reason Japanese have stopped coming…
hcp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FiODCsLh4
