Jirapat PHORNPRAPHAGraduate school of Science and Technology

Nihon University

Recently, logistics have been increasing rapidly. However logistics network is still not advanced and transportation is still ineffective.In addition, number of the scraped equipment also increased which can be considered as environmental problem.To deal with these problems, Closed-loop supply chain investigation which both forward and reverse logistics are needed.

In Thailand, there is no much data about logistics which make it difficult to figure out the real current situation.The objective of this study is to propose, the reverse logistics by allocating the facility in the network.

Recently, the environmental issue has become more concerned, in developed country there is a law that manufacturer must take responsibility to collect the product at the end of life.Japan：Automobile（2002～）、Motorcycles（2004～）

EU：（2002～）

Korea：3RsThailand：no regulation currently but the tendency is high.

Factory Warehouse Dealer

Part Maker

Material

User2nd hand centre Maintenance

Used part

Scraped material

Waste

Disposal company

Land filling

Incineration

Recycle

2%

Factory2nd hand Centre

Forward flow

Reverse flow

Dealer

2%

Factory2nd hand Centre

Dealer

Current flow

Forward flow

Reverse flow

FactoryDistribution Centre

DealerFactoryCollection Centre

Dealer

Proposed flow

Where t : yearn : vehicle ageNt : New registered vehicle in year tαn : Survival rate of vehicle at age nTt : Vehicle that possession transferred to other user in year tPt : Number of vehicle that are being possessed in year tSt : Vehicle that registration suspended in year t due to being unable to pay

the tax for consecutive 3 years, enacted in year 2004Cper,t : Vehicle that registration was inquired to cancel from user permanently in

year tCtemp,t : Vehicle that registration was inquired to cancel from user temporarily in

year t

Currently possessed

New registered

Survival rate

suspended

Transferred

ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND

Minimum error = 1.8%.

The sudden drop in year 2004 is caused by the regulation that suspend the registration for those who do not pay tax for consecutive 3 years was first started.

Currently possessed motorcycles

Survival rate

Registration suspend for not

paying tax 3 years consecutively

ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND

New registered motorcycles 2nd hand motorcycles

ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND

FactoryFactory WarehouseWarehouse Distribution Centre

Distribution Centre DealerDealer

Collection Centre

Collection CentreDisposal CentreDisposal Centre Main Collection

CentreMain Collection

Centre

UserUser

Design variable：Location and number of facilities

Location fixed

Forward transportation cost

Reverse transportation cost Construction

cost Operation cost

Location fixed

Factory2nd hand Centre

City

Hybrid distribution/collection centre

Forward flow

Factory2nd hand Centre

Dealer

Dealer no. =973

Reverse flow

FactoryCollection Centre

DealerFactory2nd hand Centre

City

Hybrid distribution/collection centre

Factory2nd hand Centre

City

Hybrid distribution/collection centre

Factory2nd hand Centre

Dealer

Hybrid distribution/collection centre

Factory2nd hand Centre

City

Hybrid distribution/collection centre

0 10 20 30 40 50 605.8

5.9

6

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8x 10

9

No of facilities

Tota

l cost

Total cost

Total cost for without facility case

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 20391

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5x 10

8

Year

Tot

al c

ost

39 facilities

Base case

39

The optimal number of Hybrid distribution/collection centre was found to be 39.

Comparing with the current system, with Hybrid distribution/collection being established the total cost are reduced and more benefit can be gained.

RESULTSRESULTS

In this study, for motorcycle transportation as a case study, it has been found that by introducing distribution/collection facility in the logistics network , the cost can be reduced.As a further study◦ Regional cohort model should be performed◦ Stochastic demand should be applied

The following tasks are investigated① Clarifying the actual situation of the motorcycle

transportation②Demand estimation for motorcycle transportation. Also,

the number of scraped, recycled and 2nd hand motorcycle.

③Facility allocation to the logistics network.

To estimate the demand, the number of new registered motorcycles are also needed therefore the number of new registered motorcycles are also forecasted.To forecast the number of new registered motorcycles, GDP are used for forecasting.

ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND