JoBreakpoint

Jon McGeeCollege of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s University

Harvard Summer Institute on College AdmissionsJune 2015

Alexander Calder, La Machine à Hatiber

Boom!

Two-thirds of all students head to college within a year of graduatingfrom high school, up from 60% a generation ago

Source: US Dept of Education, NCES

ROI

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, “Do the Benefitsof College Still Outweigh the Costs?”, 2014

Sustainability

Accessibility

Affordability

Accountability

Demographic Disruption

Composition

Competition

Bienvenido al futuro de los Estados Unidos

61%17%

15%

6% 1%

2010 High School Graduates

White

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Amer-ican Indian

55%23%

14%

7% 1%

2020 High School Graduates

Source: WICHE

Economics of Demography

WhiteBlack

AsianHispanic

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000 $81,664

$41,153

$80,848

$41,134

Median Income, Families with ChildrenAged 6 to 17, 2013

Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, Table FINC-03, 2014

The Illusion of Demand

24% in 1990

31% in 2000

59% in 2014

Source: UCLA, HERI

Percent of New College StudentsApplying to at least Five Colleges

The Temple of their Familiar

57% less than 100 miles

27% 100 to 500 miles

16% more than 500 miles

Source: UCLA, HERI

Distance from Home to CollegeAll New Entering Students at Four-Year

Colleges and Universities, Fall 2014

Economic Disruption

Income

Saving

Lagging Family Income

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

Real median income for families with children under age 18, 2013 dollars, Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, 2014

Saving or Hoping?

Fewer than half of American families with pre-college agechildren indicate that theyare saving for college

Source: SallieMae, How America Saves for College, 2015

Price Sensitivity and Deselection

Before Beginning Research

Before Applying After Admission After Financia l A id

42

%

43

%

30

%

42

%

53

%

52

%

41

%

58

%

Percentage of Students Who El iminate Col leges Based on Cost

2010 2014

Source: SallieMae, How America Pays for College

CulturalDisruption

Commoditization

Massification

Regulation

Com•mod•i•ty n.

A good or service whose wide availability typically leads to smaller profit margins and diminishes the importance of factors (such as brand name) other than price.Source: Merriam-Webster OnLine

Deus ex Machina

Competition, Complement, Substitute?

coursera

OrganizationalGenomics

Reimagine Getting to College

Aware

Aspire

Achieve

ApplyAfford

Reimagine College

Enroll

Retain

Attain

CompleteSucceed

Think Different: Fit and Composition

Think Different: Value

VS.

Think Different:Integrated Decision-Making

MODMobiles, 2013

Jon McGeeVice President for Planning and Public Affairs

College of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s Universityjmcgee@csbsju.edu

320.363.5287