JoBreakpoint
Jon McGeeCollege of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s University
Harvard Summer Institute on College AdmissionsJune 2015
Alexander Calder, La Machine à Hatiber
Boom!
Two-thirds of all students head to college within a year of graduatingfrom high school, up from 60% a generation ago
Source: US Dept of Education, NCES
ROI
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, “Do the Benefitsof College Still Outweigh the Costs?”, 2014
Bienvenido al futuro de los Estados Unidos
61%17%
15%
6% 1%
2010 High School Graduates
White
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Amer-ican Indian
55%23%
14%
7% 1%
2020 High School Graduates
Source: WICHE
Economics of Demography
WhiteBlack
AsianHispanic
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000 $81,664
$41,153
$80,848
$41,134
Median Income, Families with ChildrenAged 6 to 17, 2013
Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, Table FINC-03, 2014
The Illusion of Demand
24% in 1990
31% in 2000
59% in 2014
Source: UCLA, HERI
Percent of New College StudentsApplying to at least Five Colleges
The Temple of their Familiar
57% less than 100 miles
27% 100 to 500 miles
16% more than 500 miles
Source: UCLA, HERI
Distance from Home to CollegeAll New Entering Students at Four-Year
Colleges and Universities, Fall 2014
Lagging Family Income
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
Real median income for families with children under age 18, 2013 dollars, Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, 2014
Saving or Hoping?
Fewer than half of American families with pre-college agechildren indicate that theyare saving for college
Source: SallieMae, How America Saves for College, 2015
Price Sensitivity and Deselection
Before Beginning Research
Before Applying After Admission After Financia l A id
42
%
43
%
30
%
42
%
53
%
52
%
41
%
58
%
Percentage of Students Who El iminate Col leges Based on Cost
2010 2014
Source: SallieMae, How America Pays for College
Com•mod•i•ty n.
A good or service whose wide availability typically leads to smaller profit margins and diminishes the importance of factors (such as brand name) other than price.Source: Merriam-Webster OnLine
Jon McGeeVice President for Planning and Public Affairs
College of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s [email protected]
320.363.5287