As a homeowner, would you prefer to move closer to work if it involved a townhouse or condo?
(I-15 & Sr-91 Commuters, 2008)
72.3% No
As a renter, would you prefer to move closer to work if it involved a townhouse or condo? (I-15 & Sr-91 Commuters, 2008)
87.5% NoAnswer stable over 5 years
Lack of Land or Inadequate Zoning Drives Up Coastal Prices Forcing Home Buyers & Renters to Move Inland
$24,000
$189,000 $215,000
$371,000
$239,000 $263,000
$428,000 $454,000
$610,000
San Bernardino Co.Riverside Co. Los Angeles Co. San Diego Co. Orange Co.
Median All Home PriceSan Bernardino County Price Advantage
Source: Dataquick
Exhibit 20.-Home Prices, So. California MarketsMedian Priced New & Existing Home, 2nd Quarter 2013
$191,000$165,000
$247,000
Don’t Build Them & They’ll Come Anyway!
I-210 Delayed For 1980-2007 YearsSan Bernardino County went 900,000 to 2,000,000 people
BUILD FREEWAYS & THEY’LL COME
• People forced to move inland for affordable homes• Population Serving Jobs Only• High Desert & I-215 South are current examples
Stage #1: Rapid Population Growth
Commuting
1,650,384 Total Jobs
1,156,313 Inside IE494,071 Commute Outside County154,845 Between IE Counties339,226 Outside IE
20.6% Commute Outside the IE
Not Enough Land … Industrial Prices Much Lower In Outlying Areas
84.2%
107.2%
156.6%
$0.26$0.33
$0.48
$0.30$0.38
$0.56$0.63
$0.78
Inland Empire Los Angeles Co. Orange Co. San Diego (non-R&D)
Price Per Sq. Ft.Price with 20% Cubic Factor
Difference.
% Difference
nnn=net of taxes, insurance, common area feesSource: CB Richard Ellis
Exhibit 13.-Industrial Space Costs DifferencesSouthern California, Sub-Markets, March 2013
Outlying Workers Will Work For Less Not To Commute
0.0%
4.26%2.55%
5.81%
$33,240 $34,656 $34,089 $35,173
Inland Empire San Diego Los Angeles Orange
Weight Median Pay Percent IE Pay Is Lower
Note: Occupations in common weighted by Inland Empire JobsSource: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Wage Survey, Economics & Politics, Inc. calculations
Exhibit 82.-Median Wage & Salary Percent DifferenceInland Empire vs. Coastal Counties, 2010459 Common Occupations, Under $70,000
Condo Living Becomes More Prevalent
32.4%29.0%
25.1%21.9%
8.7%
4.5%
San Diego Orange Ventura Los Angeles Riverside San Bernardino
Source: DataQuick
Exhibit 13.-Condo Sales Share of Home SalesSouthern California Markets, 2008
Outlying Workers Will Work For Less Not To Commute
0.0%
7.70% 9.17% 9.22%
$86,806$93,489 $94,768 $94,806
Inland Empire San Diego Los Angeles Orange
Weight Median Pay Percent IE Pay Is Lower
Note: Occupations in common weighted by Inland Empire JobsSource: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Wage Survey, Economics & Politics, Inc. calculations
Exhibit 98.-Median Wage & Salary Percent DifferenceInland Empire vs. Coastal Counties, 2010138 Common Occupations, $70,000 & Up
After Losing 8.74 Million Jobs …U.S. Job Creation Is Crawling Back
Without Loss of-682,000 Government Jobs7,495,000 Growth or 85.8%
Share Stopped EducationHigh School or Less
BA or HigherBay Area: 42%Inland Empire: 18%Lake Elsinore: 16%
37.9%
30,0
50
41,0
25
37,6
42
36,5
33
36,7
75
41,4
83
46,0
08
6,34
2
9,75
8
4,57
5
16,9
17
28,9
25
23,0
83 38,3
25
40,6
92 56,4
67
49,8
50
40,5
67
33,2
92
35,4
67 59,2
75
61,5
33
44,6
92
2,50
8
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
e
Sources: CA Employment Development Department, Economics & Politics, Inc.
Exhibit 3.-Wage & Salary Job ChangeInland Empire, Annual Average, 1984-2013
Continuous Job Growth For Decades,But . . .
(46,
208)
(84,
892)
(17,
325)
4,63
3 23,0
25
-146,400-11.4%
Poverty
Exhibit 2.-Share & Number of Inland Residents Below Poverty LevelCensus Bureau
Year People In Poverty Share of Population in Poverty Population
1990 306,417 11.8% 2,588,7932000 477,496 14.7% 3,255,5262011 774,874 18.0% 4,293,892
Changes +152.9% +6.2% +65.9%
Lake Elsinore14.5%
Water Issue
1. Delta Smelt2. 20 Years Water Supply To Build3. Santa Ana Sucker4. Replacement Water Cost: $1,862,000,0005. If Water Can’t Be Found … Can’t Build Large Projects
Fulfillment Centers (John & Dan)
Sales Tax Revenue to Cities (1,000,000 SF)($5 million per year under assumption
50% of Sales Out of California)
17 Firms Looking For Space (John & Fran)1,500,0001,000,0001,000,000
800,000 to 1,000,000700,000 to 1,000,000500,000 to 800,000700,000 to 900,000
850,000700,000700,000
700,000 to 800,000600,000
600,000 to 700,000500,000450,000
300,000 to 400,000350,000
Source: Jones LaSalle
Size JobsE-Commerce: 6,150,000 to 6,450,000 SF 5,467 to 5,733 JobsConventional: 5,800,000 to 6,800,000 SF 1,850 to 2,092 JobsTotal Potential: 11,950,000 to 13,250,000 SF 7,282 to 7,826 Jobs
Average Square Feet Per Job Combined = 1,641 to 1,693
Industrial Vacancy Rate Recovering Everywhere!
Inland Empire 2.7% 12.8% 5.8%San Diego 7.0% 12.0% 9.9%Orange Co. 5.4% 6.5% 3.2%L.A. Co. 2.1% 3.2% 2.0%
2005/2006 2009Q3 2013Q2
IE Gross Absorption Back at 12.5million Sq. Ft.But Still Under Its Long Term Average
Determinants of Public Health
Robert Woods Johnson-University of Wisconsin•40% Socio-Economic•30% Health Behaviors•20% Access to Health Care•10% Environmental Factors
Public Health Determinants
San Bernardino County 46th
Riverside County 36th No Health Insurance 23%People Per Physician: SB Co. 1,868 40th
People Per Physician: Riv Co. 2,514 47th
Health Care Issue
Air Becoming CleanerExhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs.
Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level
Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren
Riverside-Magnolia
Riverside-Rubidoux
Fontana-Arrow Highway
Ontario-1408 Francis Street
San Bernardino-4th Street
2001 120.2 58.2 79.5 80.8
2002 88.4 92.6 73.7 67.4 88.9
2003 69.7 78.1 54.3 62.2 55.2
2004 * 47.8 57.3 * * *
2005 * * 39.7 22.9 25.3 9.3
2006 46.2 31.3 * 27.2 * *
2007 43.4 * * * * *
2008 * 12.4 15.0 19.3 19.4 9.5
2009 19.0 6.0 15.1 6.2 9.0 6.2
2010 8.0 6.3 4.0 6.6 3.2 5.9
2011 13.0 7.1 5.0 7.1 6.8 *
2012 7.0 * 7.0 10.6 0.0 0.0Change From
Highest -39.2 -81.3 -113.2 -63.1 -79.5 -88.9
Change -84.8% -92.0% -94.2% -85.6% -100.0% -100.0%Net Absorptiont Since Highest 86,378,254 183,911,357 229,967,544 183,911,357 229,967,544 183,911,357
Results: A Policy Cause Crisis
• California Uncompetitive for Manufacturing & Other Blue Collar Work
• Reduced Access To Middle Class Jobs For Marginally Educated Who Are A Huge Share of Workers
• Disproportionately Impact Hispanic & African American Families
• Health & Social Justice Issue Being Created
• Increasing the Income Disparity in the State
Construction Share of Lost Jobs
56.1%
118,800
66,300
Total Job Decline 2006-2012Construction Job DeclineConstruction Share of Lost Jobs
Source: CA Employment Development Department
Construction Share Of Lost JobsInland Empire, Dec. 2006-2012
Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal Counties Has Not Yet Recovered
-15,538
Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending
Investor Pre-Market Home Buying
2007 July 2007 2008 July 2008 2009 July 2009 2010 July 2010 2011 July 2011 2012 July 2012 20130%5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
0%5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Source: Foreclosureradar.com
Exhibit 12.-Direct Investor Purchase of Foreclosure SalesInland Empire, 2007-2013
57.8%
Families Can’t CompeteRealtors Have Less Business
How Much Higher Is The Likelihood of Calls for Police Service?
Single Family Rental v. Owner Occupied
How This Ends: A Housing Shortage
106,2309.35 per
new person
During 2008 thru 2012California Population Grew by 993,624
Looming Shortage
Assessed Valuation Finally Growing (3.6% for both Counties)
-6.7%
With 7.3% Inflation-14.0% Less
Purchasing Power
2012-2013Riverside Co. +3.99%Lake Elsinore +2.91%