JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 8 – 24 August 2020
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r
At EU level, the yield forecasts for almost all summer crops
were revised downwards but remain above or near the 5-
year average. Compared to the figures reported in July, the
main downward revisions occurred for summer crops in
France, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Benelux
countries and Poland. Only the yield forecast for soybeans
was revised upwards, as very favourable conditions
prevailed in northern Italy and Hungary.
Large parts of western and northern central Europe, have
been affected by a rain deficit since the beginning of July.
At the end of July, temperatures increased in these regions
and a heatwave of seven to ten consecutive days occurred
in the first half of August. The combination of the limited
water supply and high temperatures negatively affected
summer crops, with expected yield reductions. In southern
Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, the
return of drought conditions negatively impacted summer
crops, leading to the early senescence of maize and
sunflower crops.
In contrast, surplus of precipitation benefited summer
crops in many other parts of central Europe, as well as in
eastern Italy, and western Romania.
Pre-press version Issued: 24 August 2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 8
JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe
August 2020
Reduced yield outlook for summer crops Dry conditions in western, northern-central, and south-eastern Europe
Contents: 1. Agrometeorological overview 2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring 4. Country analysis 5. Crop yield forecasts 6. Atlas
Covers the period from 1 July to 15 August 2020
Avg 5yrs July Bulletin
MARS 2020
forecasts
% Diff 20/5yrs % Diff July
Total cereals 5.60 5.39 5.36 – 4.4 – 0.6Total wheat 5.54 5.34 5.34 – 3.5 + 0.0
Soft wheat 5.77 5.54 5.55 – 3.8 + 0.2Durum wheat 3.49 3.35 3.36 – 3.7 + 0.3
Total barley 4.78 4.89 4.86 + 1.8 – 0.6Spring barley 4.02 4.33 4.39 + 9.1 + 1.4Winter barley 5.75 5.64 5.51 – 4.2 – 2.3
Grain maize 7.58 8.21 8.01 + 5.6 – 2.4Rye 3.76 3.96 3.94 + 4.8 – 0.5Triticale 4.04 4.03 4.12 + 2.0 + 2.2Rape and turnip rape 3.09 2.97 2.98 – 3.3 + 0.3Potato 32.4 34.2 33.1 + 2.3 – 3.1Sugar beet 74.5 75.9 73.5 – 1.4 – 3.1Sunflower 2.25 2.46 2.39 + 6.4 – 2.8Soybean 2.92 2.96 3.06 + 5.0 + 3.4Green maize 40.2 42.5 40.1 – 0.3 – 5.7Issued: 21 August 2020
Crop
Yield (t/ha)
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1. Agrometeorological overview
1.1. Areas of concern
Large parts of western and northern central Europe have
been affected by a marked rain deficit since the beginning of July; scarce precipitation was recorded in France, the
Benelux countries, Germany, western Poland, and
northern Czechia. At the end of July, temperatures
increased and a first short heatwave occurred. A few days
later, a much longer heatwave followed, with seven to ten
consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 30°C, most notably in northern France, the Benelux countries, and northern Germany. The combination of
the long dry spell and the high temperatures depleted soil
moisture levels and negatively affected the yield
potentials of summer crops (in these regions, mainly
potatoes, sugar beet, grain maize and green (silage)
maize; and sunflowers in southern France). Extensive rain deficit has been recorded from Poland and
southern Lithuania, to southern Russia, including
Belarus and most of Ukraine. In these regions, the
impact on crops has been strongly mitigated by large soil
moisture reserves, thanks to the abundant rainfall in June,
and the relatively mild temperatures during the review
period. Soil moisture levels are currently low, however, and
negative impacts on yield potentials can be expected if the
rain deficit continues. In southern Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, drought conditions returned and negatively
affected summer crops, leading to the early senescence
of maize and sunflower crops.
A beneficial surplus of precipitation occurred in eastern Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, westerly
regions of Romania and Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, and other parts of the Balkan region. Summer crops
profited from the abundant precipitation, and recovered
from the unfavourable dry start to the season. The precipitation surplus in Ireland and western areas of
the United Kingdom was already reported in the July
issue of the Bulletin. In southern Spain and Portugal, higher-than-usual
temperatures have been recorded since the beginning of
July, with 30 - 40 days of maximum temperatures above
35°C. Similar high temperatures have been recorded in
western and southern Turkey.
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1.2. Meteorological review (1 July – 15 August 2020) Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were
observed in most of Europe. Daily mean temperature
anomalies [with regards to the long-term average (LTA)]
were mainly in the range of 0.5°C - 2°C in western, central,
and south-eastern Europe. More pronounced anomalies,
between 2°C and 4°C, occurred in a large area of the
western Iberian Peninsula. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions were observed
in Scandinavia and the Baltic countries. Daily mean
temperature anomalies were mainly between -2°C and -
0.5°C. A higher-than-usual number of hot days, with daily
maximum temperature exceeding 30°C, were observed in
central-western Europe, and in south-eastern parts of the
United Kingdom. Compared to the LTA, the review period
presented 100% more hot days than usual in these
regions. Heatwaves affected these regions at the end of
July, and from 4-5 August until 13 August. In most of
France, daily maximum temperatures ranged from 38°C -
40°C, while values between 34°C and 36°C were observed
in large areas of Germany, the Benelux countries, and
England. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in some
areas of Spain, Italy, and south-eastern Europe. Anomalies
exceeded the LTA by 80% and in large parts of the
aforementioned regions by up to 140%. Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in the
western part of the Iberian Peninsula, France, and the
Benelux countries, as well as in large areas of Germany,
Poland, eastern and south-eastern Europe, Ukraine, and
Turkey.
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1.3. Weather forecast (22 - 28 August 2020)
Weather conditions during the forecast period will be mainly determined by north-westerly/westerly flow, from the North
Atlantic towards western-central Europe, competing with a ridge expanding from north-western Africa towards the
central Mediterranean region. This large scale atmospheric circulation will bring cooler conditions in large regions of
Europe, precipitation and instabilities.
Warmer-than-usual conditions are expected in most of
the Iberian Peninsula, large areas in southern France, Italy,
south-eastern Europe and Ukraine, and European Russia.
Daily mean temperature anomalies (w.r.t. the LTA) are
forecast to be from 2 °C to 4 °C (up to 6 °C in some areas
of Spain and European Russia). In all these regions, except
Ukraine, daily maximum temperatures are expected to
reach values from 35 °C to 38 °C (locally 40 °C). Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast in
most of eastern and northern Europe, with daily mean
temperature anomalies from 0.5 °C to 2 °C. Dry conditions with less than 5 mm of accumulated
precipitation are expected in large regions of western and
central Europe as well as Turkey and Ukraine. Rainfall events with accumulated values mainly
between 10 mm to 40 mm (in some areas up to 80mm)
are forecast in central, eastern and northern Europe as
well as in the UK and Ireland. Long-range weather forecast for September, October,
and November points to likely to occur warmer-than-usual
conditions in most of Europe. Wetter-than-usual
conditions are more likely than not to occur in northern
Europe, whereas drier-than-usual conditions are more
likely than not to occur in the Mediterranean region..
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2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions
Favourable summer season continues in central Europe
The map displays the differences between the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR)
cumulated from 1 July to 10 August 2020, and the medium-term average (MTA, 2010-2019) for the same period.
Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density or advanced crop development, while negative
anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or late crop development. Regions with no information
due to persistent cloud coverage between 1 and 10 August are highlighted in blue.
In northern Italy, maize and soybean benefitted from rain that sustained crop development during July and August,
strongly mitigating the impact of the heatwaves in late July and August. Summer crops’ biomass is above-average (e.g. Veneto), and flowering took place in most regions. In northern France, the main map still reflects the anticipated end
of the unfavourable winter crops season (red colours). In central and western France, after a favourable June,
summer crops are suffering from a prolonged dry and hot period which has significantly reduced biomass accumulation (e.g. Poitou-Charentes). Positive anomalies in central and northern regions of the United Kingdom are due to a
combination of factors, including the mild weather conditions that prolonged winter and spring crops’ grain filling and
maintained the good condition of sugar beet and potato crops. In southern agricultural regions, the winter crops season ended at the beginning of August. In northern Germany, the winter crops season ended with between average and
slightly dry conditions. In central and southern Germany, summer crops are proceeding favourably (e.g. Oberbayern).
In Poland, fAPAR profiles display an optimal end to the winter crops season (e.g. Lodzkie), with a prolonged winter crops’
grain filling period thanks to sufficient precipitation and slightly lower-than-average temperatures. In central Europe (Slovakia, Czechia, and Austria), the summer crops season is proceeding very favourably, with a surplus of
precipitation that fully sustained crop growth. Biomass accumulation is now well above-average. Similar conditions are observed in Hungary, where the lack of temperature accumulation at the beginning of July was compensated for by
the moderate heatwaves around 1 August. Summer crops’ growth is optimal (e.g. Del-Alfold) thanks to the abundant
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precipitation observed during the analysis period. Similar conditions are observed in western parts of Romania and Bulgaria, where the hot temperatures at the end of July and the overall abundant precipitation maintained a high level
of biomass accumulation. Summer crops are now around the flowering stage. In contrast, in central and eastern parts
of Romania and Bulgaria (e.g. Severn Tsentralen), the hot and dry July and August hampered summer crops’ growth,
and led to an unusual accelerated senescence with negative effects on yield formation. In central and western Ukraine,
the fAPAR profiles show a delayed but favourable summer crop development (e.g.Ternopil’s’ka), with fAPAR levels similar
to those in the 2019 season.
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3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring
Favourable conditions in most of the EU, but large regions under stress
Pastures are in good condition in most EU countries, though several large regions have been under increasing stress due
to limited water supply and high temperatures. The EU areas most affected are a large region extending from central
and northern France through the southern half of the Benelux countries and central Germany to north-western Poland,
eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria.
The pasture productivity index (PPI)1 for the period 11 July to 20 August 2020 is shown on the map above.
Weather conditions during the period of review were favourable for pasture growth in many parts of the EU, with above-average rainfall in most parts of Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Greece, Hungary (see fAPAR 2 graph for Eszak-
Magyarorszag), Ireland (see graph for northern and western Ireland), Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Finland, Estonia, Latvia (see graph for Latvia) and western parts of Bulgaria and Romania. Rainfall was particularly abundant in
Hungary, where frequent intensive storms caused damage to several pasture areas. In Lithuania, Poland, and central Romania, pasture productivity has been above-average, but rainfall was below the
1 PPI, the relative index of pasture productivity is an indicator of biomass formation, based on the integration of the fAPAR remote sensing product of pasture areas (at NUTS3 level) over a period of interest. The index shows the relative position of the current season within the historical series from 2010 to 2019. 2 fAPAR: fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation. The photosynthetically active radiation is 48% of the incoming solar radiation.
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LTA, and will be needed soon to avoid unseasonal impacts. In the Benelux countries, the increasing rain deficit from north to south is reflected in a decreasing pasture productivity
gradient. A heatwave between 5 and 15 August exacerbated the effects of water stress. Nevertheless, in most areas
pasture productivity has been above-average considering the period covered by the PPI map. A similar gradient is visible in Germany, with near-average to favourable conditions in the north-west (see graph Weser-Ems), decreasing to dry
and heat-stressed central regions (extending into north-western Poland), and returning to more favourable conditions
further south, towards the Alpine region. In central, eastern, and northern France (see graph for Bourgogne), the combination of hot conditions and lack of rainfall
have taken a heavy toll on soil water reserves. Pasture productivity in the most western and south-eastern parts of France remained near-average to above-average. In eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria (see graph
Severoiztochen) the situation of drought has returned as a consequence of sparse rainfall and several heatwaves.
The decreasing photosynthetic activity is especially found in border areas close to the Black Sea. In contrast, the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania experienced relatively mild temperatures and above-average precipitation, leading
to above-average grassland productivity. In southern Spain, the temperatures have reached very high values. Combined with the prevailing dry conditions, this
has stalled pasture growth, even though pasture productivity for the period as a whole remained around average in the
south, and above-average in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula.
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4. Country analysis
4.1. European Union x
France Summer crop yields revised downward following the dry conditions
A large rain deficit was observed during the review period,
with very little significant rainfall until the second dekad
of August in most regions, when stormy weather brought
substantial rainfall. Temperatures stayed close to
seasonal values during most of July, but have increased
substantially since the last dekad of July, and a heatwave
was recorded during the first half of August.
The warm temperatures caused increased evapo-
transpiration, exposing summer crops to water stress in
most regions.
Summer crops’ yield forecasts have been revised
downwards compared to last month, and are close to the
lowest yields recorded in the past 10 years.
For winter cereals, the yield forecasts remain unchanged,
except for winter barley. Following publication of the first
estimates based on harvested field observations 3 , the
winter barley forecast was revised substantially upward in
July. However, subsequent analysis showed a bias in these
reports and that our much lower June estimate (based on
meteorological analysis) was more representative, and in
line with the most recent estimates of AGRESTE4.
Germany Dry conditions return
July temperatures fluctuated around the average, with a
couple of hot days (>30 °C) in the south and almost none
in the north. The beginning of August saw the first
pronounced summer heatwave, with maximum
temperatures exceeding 35°C some days; temperatures
were less intense only along the coast and in southern
Bayern. Precipitation in July was adequate in
Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein, and Mecklenburg-
Vorpommern, but further south the rain deficit was
significant. This pattern was somewhat reversed in
August. Especially Saarland, Rheinland Pfalz, Hessen and
Sachsen, exhibit a continued strong rain deficit. The
harvest of winter wheat, winter barley, and rapeseed is
finished, and the spring barley harvest is well underway.
Grain maize flowering mainly took place in July, and
therefore escaped the high August temperatures.
Nevertheless, the continued water deficit in most regions
of Germany is a clear concern for summer crops.
Consequently, yield forecasts are decreased, but are still
above last year’s disappointing levels.
3 https://moisson-live.com/ 4 https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-
web/download/publication/publie/IraGcu20107/2020_107inforapgdescultures.pdf
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Poland Slightly reduced yield outlook for grain maize and sugar beet
During the review period, precipitation was substantially
below the LTA. Temperatures oscillated around the LTA,
while hot days in July were less frequent than usual.
Moderate temperatures, in conjunction with heavy
precipitation events at the beginning of August mitigated
the negative effects of rain deficit on summer crops.
The harvest of winter and spring cereals was delayed
compared to last year, due to the lengthened grain filling
period (moderate temperatures) and wet conditions which
hampered ripening and harvest operations. The harvest of
winter rapeseed was finalised during the first dekad of
August, while winter wheat harvest is in full swing, with
field reports suggesting satisfactory yields and grain
quality.
Conditions were generally satisfactory for summer crops.
Grain maize flowering took place when the moisture levels
were still adequate, except for in dry north-western
regions. However, more rain will be needed during the
following weeks for a satisfactory yield formation. Our
yield forecasts for grain maize and sugar beet have been
slightly reduced.
Ireland Harvest is underway under wet conditions with variable yields
The review period was characterised by slightly below-
average temperatures and frequent rainfall.
Due to the mild temperatures, winter crops ripened slowly
with a positive effect on grain weight. Harvest has been
completed for winter barley, and is underway for winter
wheat. In several areas, heavy rains and excessively wet
soil conditions are hampering progress. The spring barley
harvest has started in the south for the earliest-sown
crops. In many fields, crops have been ripening unevenly,
and yields remain variable among fields with thin crops
resulting in reduced average yields. The oilseed rape
harvest has been concluded with reported good yields.
Green maize is faring well, despite the colder-than-usual
period.
The yield forecasts for winter cereals have been slightly
reduced due to the wet harvest conditions.
Spain and Portugal Continued positive outlook for summer crops in Spain
Weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula have been
favourable for spring and summer cereals. The harvest of
spring cereals was completed during the review period,
without any setbacks. Maize development in the northern-
central regions (Castilla y Leon, and Castilla-La Mancha)
is advanced by one dekad. Southern regions are hitting the
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highest maximum temperatures for the review period,
according to our records (since 1979; see Sevilla graph).
The levels of water reservoirs in Spain are at 53% of full
capacity, which is mid-way between 2019 and the 10-year average5. The lowest levels are in Guadalquivir reservoirs,
below the 2019 level, at 36% of full capacity.
Even though the situation in southern-central Spain
requires attention, the yield forecasts for summer crops
(grain maize, and sunflower) remain stable and above the
5-year average. Yield expectations in Portugal’s Centro
and Norte are stable at around the 5-year average.
Italy Good perspectives for maize, soybeans, and sunflower
In Italy, rainfall in July and August was between average
and abundant. Temperatures were mostly mild in July, but
there have been three heatwaves since 20 July, with
maximum temperatures exceeding 35°C around 31 July.
In north-western regions, crop development results are
uneven due to the different sowing strategies adopted by
the farmers, but most fields have above-average biomass
accumulation. In August, the grain filling of grain maize
began under optimal conditions.
In north-eastern regions, maize only entered the grain
filling phase in the second week of August, with up to 20
days of delay due to the unfavourable start to the season.
The crops are now in good condition and biomass
accumulation is above-average, even in provinces where
the drought was more severe during spring.
In central Italy, maize and sunflower benefitted from
frequent rainfall, and yield expectations are favourable.
The sunflower harvest is about to start.
All summer crops’ forecasts are above the 5-year average.
Hungary High yield expectations for summer crops
The period between 11 and 25 July was significantly
colder than usual, but above-average temperatures
dominated in the first dekad of July and the period after
25 July. Rainfall was frequent, intensive, and abundant,
(locally excessive, causing damaging flash floods and
inundations) resulting in above-average levels of
precipitation by 20%-130% in most regions, with the
5 Source: www.embalses.net (18.08.2020)
highest levels in eastern and southern Hungary. Despite
the weather problems in July, the harvest of winter cereals
went generally well and was concluded without major
delays; our previous pessimistic yield forecast has
therefore been increased.
The phenological development of summer crops is
seasonal, but the mild temperatures of mid-June
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favourably extended the flowering period, and facilitated
the pollination of grain maize and sunflower. The soil
moisture supply during flowering and early grain filling
has been adequate throughout the country. Model
simulations and satellite images indicate above-average
biomass accumulation, most markedly in eastern regions.
The yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised
further upwards.
Romania Wet west, dry east
During the review period, temperatures alternated
between warmer-than-usual and colder-than-usual
periods, resulting in near-average (slightly warmer-than-
usual in south-eastern regions) thermal conditions for the
period as a whole. Grain maize benefitted from the mild
temperatures between 7 and 26 July that coincided with
the flowering stage. In July, rainy weather conditions
persisted in western and central areas, where
70 mm – 160 mm of precipitation was measured.
Eastern and south-eastern regions received below-
average (typically only 10 mm – 50 mm) rainfall in July.
August was almost entirely dry throughout the country.
Soil moisture levels were generally adequate during the
flowering period for grain maize and sunflower, thanks to
the abundant rainfall in June and early July. However,
after mid-July, summer crops started to experience water
deficit, and evidence of early leaf senescence has
appeared in the main producing southern and eastern
regions. Biomass accumulation of summer crops is high in
western regions, but below average in the east. Sunflower
and grain maize yield forecasts were revised downwards,
considering the deteriorating water supply conditions in
considerable areas during grain filling.
Bulgaria Decreased maize and sunflower yield expectations due to scarce rain
Thermal conditions varied considerably over the review
period, resulting –overall in a positive anomaly of 1°C-
2.5°C in eastern Bulgaria, and near-average levels
elsewhere. The end of July and beginning of August, was
hot, with daily maximum temperatures in the range of
35°C-39°C. The number of hot days exceeded the average
by 5-17 days, except in the milder south-western regions,
where it was below or close to average.
After a wet June, precipitation decreased dramatically in
central and eastern Bulgaria, where less than 15 mm of
rainfall was typically recorded during the review period.
Western regions received near- or above-average rainfall.
The harvesting of winter crops was concluded without
problems in eastern areas, but problems associated with
frequent rainfall continued in western areas, and
especially in south-western territories. Grain maize and
sunflower in the north and west experienced favourable
conditions during flowering. After mid-July, (during grain
filling) the soil moisture under summer crops decreased to
below-average levels, except in western regions. Model
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simulations indicate that biomass accumulation slowed
down and reached an average level; therefore our
previous optimistic yield forecasts for maize and
sunflowers were revised downwards.
Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Good summer crop yield outlook
July was characterised by average temperature
conditions. This was followed by a warmer-than-usual
first half of August, with temperature anomalies up to 4⁰C
above the LTA, and maximum temperatures reaching up
to 34⁰C during the hottest days. Rainfall varied between
less than 60 mm (well below the LTA) in north-western
Czechia, to 100 mm in north-eastern Austria, and more
than 200 mm in central Austria (i.e. up to 80% above the
LTA).
The winter crop harvesting campaign is finished. The soft
wheat yield forecast has been revised upwards in Austria,
due to prevailing favourable weather conditions during the
review period. Summer crops are generally in good
condition, except in northwestern Czechia, where rainfall
deficit conditions continue to prevail. The sensitive stage
of grain maize flowering mainly occurred before the
heatwave at the beginning of August. The yield outlook for
summer crops was revised upwards.
Denmark and Sweden Positive yield outlook maintained for all crops
Most regions received a cumulative amount of rainfall
close to seasonal values, with the exception of Sjaelland.
Rain was particularly abundant in July, but has stopped
since the beginning of August. This interruption has had
no negative consequences on crop yield potentials so far,
and has even been beneficial for the harvest of winter
crops. Temperatures were milder than usual in July, and
therefore favorable for the grain filling of winter cereals.
Since 5 August, a distinct warm weather anomaly has
been observed, and considering that the maximum
temperatures remain below 30°C, no negative
consequences for crop yields are expected. The yield
forecasts for winter cereals and spring barley are
maintained close to the highest yields recorded in the past
10 years. The yield forecasts for summer crops have been
revised upward.
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Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Cereal harvest progressing under cold and wet weather
Temperatures were predominantly colder than usual
during the review period. Precipitation was close to the LTA
in Estonia and Latvia, but below-average in Lithuania,
whereas Finland received particularly abundant and
frequent rainfall.
In the Baltic countries, the cereals and oilseed rape
harvest is underway, and yield expectations remain good.
In Finland, the winter cereal harvest began as usual during
the first week of August, with variable expectations across
the country, and particularly low prospects for south-
western regions which were affected by the dry and warm
conditions in June. In some areas in southern Finland,
harvest has been hampered by wet soil conditions.
Preparations for autumn sowing have also begun across
these countries.
Weather conditions have been generally adequate for
summer crops. The yield forecasts for cereals and oilseed
rape were maintained at the levels reported in July, except
for oilseed rape in Lithuania, for which the forecast was
revised downwards (but remains above the 5-year
average) following subsequent analyses.
Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands Reduced yield expectations for summer crops
Rainfall cumulated over the review period presented a
clear gradient from just above the LTA in northern coastal
areas of the Netherlands to only 20% of the LTA in
Luxembourg. Temperatures slightly below the LTA
prevailed in July, but abruptly increased at the end of the
month. The first half of August was exceptionally warm,
with a heatwave from 6 to 13 August.
The harvesting of winter crops proceeded smoothly and
was practically completed in the first week of August.
Harvesting of spring cereals is ongoing. Summer crop
growth was negatively affected by the combination of
high temperatures and limited water supply; most
markedly in Luxembourg, inland parts of Belgium and
southeastern parts of the Netherlands. After the
heatwave, continued above-average day and night
temperatures combined with high air humidity are likely
to have further affected sugar beet and potatoes.
Greece and Cyprus Positive outlook for summer crops
The review period (11 July - 15 August) was characterised
by above-average rainfall in Greece, with the exception of
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace (North-East), where rainfall
was scarce. Precipitation was concentrated in the first
dekad of August, and was beneficial for the restoration of
soil moisture after the heatwaves in northern and central
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Greece at the beginning and end of July. Meteorological
conditions in Cyprus were around average.
Satellite-based observations (fAPAR) suggest a slow-
down in biomass accumulation (from above-average to
average levels) in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. Summer
crops’ growth has been moderately hampered in this area
by the combined effect of high temperatures and scarce
precipitation in July during flowering. The yield forecasts
for summer crops are above the 5-year average. However,
more rain is needed in the coming weeks to sustain grain
filling and the positive outlook.
Slovenia and Croatia Good summer crop yield outlook
Following the around-average temperature conditions
throughout most of July, the end of July and first half of
August were characterised by two heatwaves, which were
most pronounced in the Adriatic coastal regions, and
eastern Croatia. Maximum temperatures in the coastal
regions exceeded 34⁰C, and reached this value in eastern
Slovenia and eastern Croatia during this period. Rainfall
was abundant in both countries; in eastern Slovenia and
central-northern Croatia, rainfall cumulates (exceeding
200 mm) more than doubled the LTA values.
The winter crop harvesting campaign has finished.
Summer crops are generally in good condition, even
though locally some stands were damaged due to
excessive rainfall. The summer crop yield forecasts have
therefore been revised slightly upwards.
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4.2. United Kingdom Harvest progressing quickly with below-average yields
A slightly colder-than-usual period characterised July,
whereas August was warmer than usual. Rainfall varied
from below-average in the south-west (locally
40% < LTA) to 30% above the LTA in Scotland. In most
regions, rainfall was more abundant in July, whereas
August has been relatively dry so far, but precipitation in
Scotland has persisted throughout the review period.
The prevailing dry conditions during August facilitated
rapid progress in harvesting, except in Scotland where
progress was hampered due to the persisting wet
conditions. The winter barley and winter oilseed rape
harvests were mostly concluded by the first dekad of
August. The winter wheat harvest is progressing well,
mostly in the East and South East, under favourable
conditions. Reported yields are highly variable due to the
difficult season, and generally remain below the 5-year
average. Spring barley is being harvested in the south-
west, south-east, and east, but is still ripening in northern
areas.
Summer crops are faring well, with some increase in pest
and diseases after the wet weather of July.
The yield forecasts of the July Bulletin remain almost
unchanged.
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4.3. Black Sea Area
Ukraine Summer crop yields revised downward following the rain deficit
A rain deficit has been observed since the beginning of
July in most of central Ukraine. The drought is still ongoing
in the south, Odes’ka, south of Mykolayivs’ka, and Krym.
Temperatures fluctuated around the average in a
succession of short warm and milder periods. Considering
the rain deficit, grain maize and soybean yield forecasts
were revised downwards, to below the level of the
historical trends, and very close to last year’s levels. The
impact of the rain deficit is not disastrous, considering the
rain surplus recorded in May and June in central Ukraine,
and that most summer crops are cultivated on chernozem
soils. Nonetheless, the substantial rainfall in May delayed
part of the sowings, and colder-than-usual temperatures
in June delayed crop development. Consequently, the
delay in phenology has shifted the season forward, and
this is exposing summer crops more prominently to risk of
water stress. The harvest of winter cereals has been
finalised. Soft wheat and barley forecasts remain
unchanged.
Turkey Hot summer, but no concerns for crops
In Turkey, temperatures in July and August were
constantly above the LTA in the main agricultural regions.
Even without peaking to very high levels compared to an
average season, the number of days with Tmax > 30°C
almost doubled throughout western Anatolia (Bati
Anadolu). In the hottest regions, in western and south-
eastern Turkey, maximum temperatures were always
above 30°C throughout the analysis period. Precipitation
was scarce, as usual.
Winter crops’ favourable season ended: the last harvest
operations took place in eastern Anatolia around 15 July.
Summer crops (under irrigation regime only) are
developing favourably in most regions. Crop development
is still generally delayed due to the late sowings, but
biomass accumulation is now above-average, although
not to the same extent as in 2019, as shown in the Adana
fAPAR profile.
The yield forecasts for summer crops are above the 5-
year average.
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4.4. European Russia and Belarus
European Russia Mediocre outlook for grain maize due to dry conditions in the south
The first half of July was much warmer than usual (by
1°C – 5°C) in European Russia. During the remainder of
the review period, near-seasonal thermal conditions
prevailed, except in the Central okrug and some adjacent
areas of Volga and Southern okrug, which were somewhat
colder-than-usual (by 0.5°C – 2.5°C).
Precipitation sums reached only 5 mm – 35 mm in
southern North Caucasus and southern regions of the
Central okrug, as well as territories of Volga okrug along
the Kazakh border. Other regions received more abundant
rainfall, in the range of 60 mm – 170 mm.
In southern regions, dry weather conditions facilitated the
harvesting of winter crops, but frequent and abundant
rains hampered progress in central and eastern regions,
possibly causing some yield losses, and likely decreasing
grain quality. The overall wheat yield outlook is somewhat
higher than last year, as the reduced outlook due to
insufficient water supply in southern Russia is
compensated for by the positive outlook for the Central
and Volga okrugs, where favourably moist and mild
weather conditions prevailed.
Inadequate water supply during flowering and early grain
filling adversely affected grain maize in the main
producing regions in southern Russia. Adequate soil
moisture and thermal conditions prevail elsewhere, but
without compensating for the adverse conditions in the
south. Therefore the yield outlook for grain maize has
been reduced, and is now at the level of the last 5-year
average.
Belarus Fair conditions for summer crops
During the review period, slightly warmer–than-usual (0-
2°C > LTA) temperatures prevailed in the south-west,
while temperatures in north-eastern regions were slightly
below average. Cumulative rainfall was significantly
below average (<-30% compared to LTA), most markedly
in western and south-eastern regions.
The harvest of winter and spring cereals started during the
second dekad of July and is still progressing, with field
reports suggesting satisfactory yields (better than in
2019).
Agrometeorological conditions were generally satisfactory
for the development and biomass accumulation of maize.
However, soil moisture levels have been gradually
depleting, and rainfall is much needed during the coming
weeks for adequate kernel formation.
Our yield forecasts for wheat and barley have been
increased due to the favorable conditions during late grain
filling and harvesting, while the outlook for maize is
slightly below the 5-year average.
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5. Crop yield forecasts
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NB:
Sources:
* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Sweden since recent data on yields were not consistent.
The column header '%20/5yrs’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to the 5-year average (%). Similarly, '%20/19’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to 2019 (%).
N/A = Data not available.
Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficently long and coherent yield time series.
2015-2020 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term-outlook data (dated July 2020, received on 27.7.2020), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 11.8.2020) and EES (last update: 15.11.2017).Non-EU 2015-2019 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 11.8.2020), State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online.
2020 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.8.2020).
EU aggregate after 1.2.2020 is reported.
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6. Atlas
Temperature regime
Precipitation
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Climatic water balance
Weather events
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Crop development stages and precocity
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Relative soil moisture
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Weather anomalies around flowering and ripening
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Precipitation around harvesting
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JRC MARS Bulletins 2020
Date Publication Reference
27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 23 Mar Agromet analysis, yield
forecast Vol. 28 No 3
27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 4
18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 5
15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 6
27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting conditions, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 7
24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 8
14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, harvesting update, yield forecast,
Vol. 28 No 9
26 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 10
23 Nov Agromet analysis, sowing update, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 11
14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12
The current JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable Resources)
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini
Reporting support SeproTec, G. Mulhern
Edition M. van den Berg, B. Baruth
Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)
Contact JRC D5/MARS4CAST [email protected]
Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.
Technical note
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.
Pre-press version. This is a pre-press version of the JRC MARS Bulletin, which, after final editing will be formally published by the Publications Office of the European Union.
In terms of content, both versions are identical.