8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

1/12

MEMORANDUM

Date: June 23, 2010

RE: Public Perceptions of Alberta Government

Spotlight recently commissioned a few questions about the public mood

regarding the current provincial government. Following are the findings

(detailed charts attached):

Right Track/Wrong Track

Spotlight is of the opinion that this is one of the most important questions

that can be asked about government/political performance, but is rarely

included in polls that are released publicly. This essentially asks whether the

public believes the government is more or less on the right track, or is going

down the wrong track. It is a more reliable indicator of their satisfaction with

the government than is any snapshot poll of voting intention.

The results show that 64% of Albertans believe the government is on the right

track more or less, and only 31% believe it is on the wrong track more or less.

These are very good numbers compared with other governments and

situations: governing parties frequently have a 50/50 result, or even a modest

wrong track result because voters are typically more inclined to rememberthe things they dont like than the things they do like, or to give greater

i ht t th d i i th di lik d

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

2/12

i ht t th d i i th di lik d

Another 25% felt the policies did not buffer Albertans from the recession, and only 11% felt the

policies made the recession worse. That 11% likely coincides with people who would never

consider voting PC under any circumstance.

The Snapshot Question

This question is often called the headline question, because it is what gets the headlines in the

media. Spotlight asked the headline question, but also asked the undecided voters if they were

leaning in any direction; and also asked everyone for their second choices. This is a more in

depth means of testing peoples voting intentions, because campaigns do matter. Localcandidates matter. Issues matter. The vote is not going to be held today, so what is the range of

choices people are prepared to consider?

Voting Intention: Solid

PC: 25%

WRA: 15%

Lib: 10%

NDP: 6%

Green: 5%

Other: 1%

Undecided: 24%

Wouldnt vote: 5%

DK/NR: 9%

Voting Intention: Solid plus Leaning

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

3/12

Together, this suggests that the PC Party has room for growth in an actual campaign, as a

greater number of currently undecided voters are leaning to them; and they also capture moresecond choice votes in the event that a voters first choice loses appeal.

Key Issues

Finally, which issues matter to voters when they decide how they will vote? Detailed results are

on the charts attached, but in short, the issues stack up like this (number indicates the total of

Very Importantand Importantfor voters in deciding how they will cast their vote):

Health Care: 82%

Environment: 77%

Controlling health costs: 75%

Funding Education: 74%

Reducing crime: 71%

Infrastructure: 69%

In touch with Grassroots: 68%

Improving fiscal situation: 67%

Keeping taxes low: 65%

Fast growth economy: 63%

More oil & gas: 45%

Analysis

On the basis of these six key questions Spotlight believes that the position of the government

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

4/12

Research Results

Spotlight Strategies

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

5/12

64% 31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

Right track Wrong track

Direction of the Provincial GovernmentThinking of all of the issues that the Province of Alberta is dealing with today, do you believe the provincial government

is on the right track, more or less OR on the wrong track, more or less?

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

6/12

18% 42% 25% 11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

The provincial government's policies were appropriate and helped Alberta weather the downturn

While the provincial government did some things I disagree with, the unusual circumstances

required unusual steps

The provincial government's policies did not buffer Alberta from the recession

The provincial government's policies made the recession worse

Provincial Government Handling of the Economic RecessionThinking of the recent worldwide economic recession, which of the following statements is closer to your view?

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

7/12

25% 15% 6% 10% 5%1% 24% 5% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDPLiberal Party Green Party Other

Undecided Would not vote DK/NR

Voting Intention: SolidIf a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

8/12

30% 15% 4% 15% 7% 5% 24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP

Liberal Party Green Party Other

DK/NR

Voting Intention: Leaning(IF UNDECIDED): In that case, which party would you favour or lean towards?

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

9/12

40% 24% 8% 17% 8% 3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP

Liberal Party Green Party Other

Voting Intention: Solid and LeaningIf a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

10/12

21% 15% 11% 19% 7% 2% 11% 13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance NDPLiberal Party Green Party Other

Undecided DK/NR

Voting Intention: Second ChoiceWhich party would be your second choice if you decided not to vote for your first choice?

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

11/12

Issue Importance in Vote IntentionHow important will each of the following issues be in terms of deciding which party you vote for in the next election?

14%

21%

21%

22%

30%

33%

35%

37%

37%

40%

51%

31%

48%

42%

45%

35%

35%

40%

34%

40%

34%

31%

16%

17%

15%

12%

13%

10%

8%

10%

10%

13%

10%

37%

14%

18%

19%

21%

18%

15%

18%

12%

13%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Encouraging more oil and gas exploration, production and refining ac tivity

Investing in infrastructure like roads , transi t and facilities

Planning a next generation fast growth economy for Alberta

Improving Alberta's fis cal pos ition

Keeping taxes low

Having a government that is in touch with the grass roots

Controlling health costs

Reducing crime

Protecting the environment

More funding for education

Improving access to health care services

Very important (7) Important (5,6) Neither (4) Unimportant (1-3)

8/9/2019 June 2010 Spotlight Polling Memo

12/12

Methodology

Sample size

Total 804

Region

North (66)

Edmonton (257)

Central (81)

Calgary (304)

South (96)

Field dates May 19 to May 26, 2010

Average Survey Length 5 minutes