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MEMORANDUM
Date: June 23, 2010
RE: Public Perceptions of Alberta Government
Spotlight recently commissioned a few questions about the public mood
regarding the current provincial government. Following are the findings
(detailed charts attached):
Right Track/Wrong Track
Spotlight is of the opinion that this is one of the most important questions
that can be asked about government/political performance, but is rarely
included in polls that are released publicly. This essentially asks whether the
public believes the government is more or less on the right track, or is going
down the wrong track. It is a more reliable indicator of their satisfaction with
the government than is any snapshot poll of voting intention.
The results show that 64% of Albertans believe the government is on the right
track more or less, and only 31% believe it is on the wrong track more or less.
These are very good numbers compared with other governments and
situations: governing parties frequently have a 50/50 result, or even a modest
wrong track result because voters are typically more inclined to rememberthe things they dont like than the things they do like, or to give greater
i ht t th d i i th di lik d
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i ht t th d i i th di lik d
Another 25% felt the policies did not buffer Albertans from the recession, and only 11% felt the
policies made the recession worse. That 11% likely coincides with people who would never
consider voting PC under any circumstance.
The Snapshot Question
This question is often called the headline question, because it is what gets the headlines in the
media. Spotlight asked the headline question, but also asked the undecided voters if they were
leaning in any direction; and also asked everyone for their second choices. This is a more in
depth means of testing peoples voting intentions, because campaigns do matter. Localcandidates matter. Issues matter. The vote is not going to be held today, so what is the range of
choices people are prepared to consider?
Voting Intention: Solid
PC: 25%
WRA: 15%
Lib: 10%
NDP: 6%
Green: 5%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 24%
Wouldnt vote: 5%
DK/NR: 9%
Voting Intention: Solid plus Leaning
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Together, this suggests that the PC Party has room for growth in an actual campaign, as a
greater number of currently undecided voters are leaning to them; and they also capture moresecond choice votes in the event that a voters first choice loses appeal.
Key Issues
Finally, which issues matter to voters when they decide how they will vote? Detailed results are
on the charts attached, but in short, the issues stack up like this (number indicates the total of
Very Importantand Importantfor voters in deciding how they will cast their vote):
Health Care: 82%
Environment: 77%
Controlling health costs: 75%
Funding Education: 74%
Reducing crime: 71%
Infrastructure: 69%
In touch with Grassroots: 68%
Improving fiscal situation: 67%
Keeping taxes low: 65%
Fast growth economy: 63%
More oil & gas: 45%
Analysis
On the basis of these six key questions Spotlight believes that the position of the government
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Research Results
Spotlight Strategies
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64% 31%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Right track Wrong track
Direction of the Provincial GovernmentThinking of all of the issues that the Province of Alberta is dealing with today, do you believe the provincial government
is on the right track, more or less OR on the wrong track, more or less?
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18% 42% 25% 11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
The provincial government's policies were appropriate and helped Alberta weather the downturn
While the provincial government did some things I disagree with, the unusual circumstances
required unusual steps
The provincial government's policies did not buffer Alberta from the recession
The provincial government's policies made the recession worse
Provincial Government Handling of the Economic RecessionThinking of the recent worldwide economic recession, which of the following statements is closer to your view?
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25% 15% 6% 10% 5%1% 24% 5% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDPLiberal Party Green Party Other
Undecided Would not vote DK/NR
Voting Intention: SolidIf a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
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30% 15% 4% 15% 7% 5% 24%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP
Liberal Party Green Party Other
DK/NR
Voting Intention: Leaning(IF UNDECIDED): In that case, which party would you favour or lean towards?
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40% 24% 8% 17% 8% 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance Party NDP
Liberal Party Green Party Other
Voting Intention: Solid and LeaningIf a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
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21% 15% 11% 19% 7% 2% 11% 13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Conservative Party Wildrose Alliance NDPLiberal Party Green Party Other
Undecided DK/NR
Voting Intention: Second ChoiceWhich party would be your second choice if you decided not to vote for your first choice?
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Issue Importance in Vote IntentionHow important will each of the following issues be in terms of deciding which party you vote for in the next election?
14%
21%
21%
22%
30%
33%
35%
37%
37%
40%
51%
31%
48%
42%
45%
35%
35%
40%
34%
40%
34%
31%
16%
17%
15%
12%
13%
10%
8%
10%
10%
13%
10%
37%
14%
18%
19%
21%
18%
15%
18%
12%
13%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Encouraging more oil and gas exploration, production and refining ac tivity
Investing in infrastructure like roads , transi t and facilities
Planning a next generation fast growth economy for Alberta
Improving Alberta's fis cal pos ition
Keeping taxes low
Having a government that is in touch with the grass roots
Controlling health costs
Reducing crime
Protecting the environment
More funding for education
Improving access to health care services
Very important (7) Important (5,6) Neither (4) Unimportant (1-3)
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Methodology
Sample size
Total 804
Region
North (66)
Edmonton (257)
Central (81)
Calgary (304)
South (96)
Field dates May 19 to May 26, 2010
Average Survey Length 5 minutes