June 2020 is IFNEC’s SMR Month

June 2020 is IFNEC’s SMR Month

National Market Perspectives on SMR Market Development: Emerging Countries Have a

Conversation on Deployment

3:55 PM – Paris Time

National Market Perspectives on SMR Market Development: Emerging Countries Have a Conversation on Deployment


Shi Lishan - Deputy Director-General, National Energy Administration of China, IFNEC Steering Group Vice-Chair

Opening remarks

Shi LishanDeputy Director-GeneralNational Energy Administration of ChinaIFNEC Steering Group Vice-Chair


Suzie Jaworowski, Senior Advisor. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy & IFNEC Steering Group Chair

IFNEC SMR Month – June 2020

Welcome by

Suzie JaworowskiSenior Advisor. U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Nuclear EnergyIFNEC Steering Group Chair


Suzie Jaworowski, Senior Advisor. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy & IFNEC Steering Group Chair

IFNEC SMR MonthJune 2, 2020, 14:00 – 15:30 CEST National Market Perspectives on SMR Market Development: Emerging Countries Have a Conversation on Deployment

June 9, 2020, 14:00 – 15:30 CEST SMR Financing: Private and Public Options

June 16, 2020, 14:00 – 15:30 CESTSMR Licensing: Sharing Experiences on Regulatory Collaboration

June 23, 2020, 14:00 – 16:00 CESTSMR Vendor Forum: An Open Discussion with Global Vendors to Review Designs and Benefits

June 30, 2020, 14:00 – 15:30 CESTEnergy Synergy (nuclear and renewable) and Hybrid Systems


William D. Magwood, IV, Director-General, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency

Keynote

How SMR can Enhance Embarking Country Access to Nuclear

William D. Magwood, IVDirector-General, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency


Shi Lishan - Deputy Director-General, National Energy Administration of China, IFNEC Steering Group Vice-Chair

Management Issues of Developing an SMR Program

Shi LishanDeputy Director-GeneralNational Energy Administration of ChinaIFNEC Steering Group Vice-Chair


Prof. Kamal Araj - Vice Chairman & Commissioner for Nuclear Power Reactors, Jordan Atomic Energy Commission

Jordan’s Nuclear Power Perspective for SMR Deployment

Dr. Kamal ARAJ, Vice ChairmanJordan Atomic Energy Commission



Jordan’s Country Profile

- Total Area: 89,213 Km2

- Sea Port: Aqaba

- Coastline: 26 Km

- Population: 10.554 million (2019)

60% (15- 64)

35% (below 15)

- Climate: Mediterranean & Arid Desert

- GDP: $42.23 billion (2018)

- Per Capita: $4,096 (2018)

- GDP Growth: 2.6% (2017-2019)



Generating Plants Capacity [MW]



Energy Strategy Main Goals

Expanding the

development of

renewable energy

projects

Maximizing the

utilization of domestic

resources

Generating electricity

from Oil shale &

nuclear energy

Promoting energy

efficiency and

awareness

Diversifying the energy

resources

Increasing the share

of local resources in

the energy mix

Reducing the

dependency on

imported oil

Enhancing environment

protection

This will be achieved through



Jordan Power Balance (2017-2040)



Two Parallel Paths

Start direct negotiations with interested vendors on the feasibility of construction of 1000 MWe PWR on a BOT/BOOT basis or JV.

Continue technical & economic assessment to down-select to the most viable and suitable SMR options;

Conduct BIS to select the preferred SMR.

Large Reactor (1000 MWe) SMR



Available Areas and Sites



Jordan Requirements

GIII+ or better technology

High safety level with passive safety features

Grid compatibility

To be deployable in 2030 time frame as Nth of a kind

Added advantage for ability for co-generation, process heat, etc.

Limited EPZ to site boundary

Possibility of dry cooling

Design to withstand 0.3-0.45 g or greater

Enhanced protection against external hazards

Tariff to off taker competitive with average generation price

Transportability of equipment



Technology Selection

Assessment of selected SMR technologies is being conducted in two main phases.

• Down-selecting the most advanced and competitive technologies

that are deployable and viable in Jordan

• Exchange of information with the selected Technology Providers

• Information received will then be matched to a initial assessment

criteria matrix

1st Phase

(Generic

Tech.Ass.

Phase)

Preparation of a BIS and Conducting Evaluation to select a Preferred

Vendor 2nd Phase



Technology Evaluation Approach

The differences between technologies and their impact on Jordan will be assessed

through rigorous evaluation methodologies designed to bring full visibility and

transparency:

Assessment of the vendor technology towards Key Factors (important for Jordan)

Evaluation Matrix

Best-in-Class for each evaluation criteria

Price under competitive environment



ACP-100 SMART UK-SMR BWRX-300

Chinese iPWR

• 125 MWe / module

S. Korean iPWR

• 123 MWe / module

British PWR

• 400-450 MWe / module

American iBWR

• 300 Mwe / module

SMRs in Consideration HTR-PM NuScale Xe-100 RITM-200

Chinese HTR

• 110.5 MWe / module

American iPWR

• 60 MWe / module

American HTR

• 81.5 MWe / module

Russian iPWR

• 57 MWe / module



Project Risks for SMRs

FOAK, lack of operating history

Lisensability by EMRC and Reference Plant concept

No clear IAEA Safety Standards for SMR

Little experience with novel designs

Licensing fees and schedule cannot copy Large LWR

Competitive price with alternatives (RE and natural gas) and large reactors

Adequate & reasonable solution for spent fuel and radioactive waste management

Security implications

Financing

Supply chain

Localization potential



Financing Challenges

Scale of the investment relative to country’s GDP

Debt to GDP limitations

Hurdles to provide direct sovereign guarantees (material effect on government balance sheet)

Country Credit rating

Limited financing options

Financial constraints

Tariff levels (subsidies)



Thank You


Erick Ohaga - Director, Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Development, Nuclear Power and Energy Agency, Kenya

SMR and Kenya grid appropriateness

Eng. Erick OhagaDirector, Nuclear Energy Infrastructure DevelopmentNuclear Power and Energy Agency



COUNTRY PROFILE

• Location: in East Africa

• Area: 591,971 Km2

• Population 47 Million

• Governance: 47 counties

• Official languages: English, Swahili

• Coastline: 1420KM

• Electricity: Inst. capacity 2,800

• MW

• Electricity Access: 74%



KENYA’S INSTALLED CAPACITY



KENYA’S PEAK DEMAND PROJECTIONS



KENYA’S GENERATION PROJECTIONS



KENYA NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME

NuPEA’s Mandate is to oversee the implementation of Nuclear Power Programme and Coordinate

Energy R&D Issues.

1.The National Economic and Social Council

(NESC), recommended in

April 2010 adoption of

nuclear power programme as a national priority.

2. Nuclear power

incorporated in the

country’s energy

blueprint

3. A NEPIO,

NEPC was established in 2010

and elevated to

KNEB

4. (2011-2015)KNEB

carried out PFS and other

preliminary technical studies-

5. 2019: Nuclear

Power and Energy Agency

established, KNRA formed

6. 2020:NuPEA planning for land acquisition and

site characterization,

and Research Reactor project



KENYA’S NPP MILESTONE APPROACH

• Political Decision to go Nuclear,

• HRD Development

• NPP Strategic Plan

• Nuclear included in the energy Mix

• Undertake INIR Mission

• Pre-feasibility study

• Other Technical studies

Roadmap for Phase 2: 2016-2020

• Setting up a comprehensive legal &

regulatory framework

• Continuous Capacity building programs

• Implementation of PFS findings

• Feasibility Study.

• Complete Development of other NPP

Infrastructure (e.g. site characterization,

reactor selection, financing model)

Milestone 3

Milestone 1

2011-2016

SMR AND KENYA’S GRID APPROPRIATENESS

Economics Considerations

Nuclear Safety Issues

Kenya Grid Appropriateness

Cogeneration Capability

Decommissioning

1

2

3

4



Thank You!




Zbigniew Kubacki - Nuclear Energy Department, Ministry of Climate, Poland & IFNEC IDWG Co-Chair

Polish approach to advanced nuclear technologies:SMR perspective

Zbigniew Kubacki

Nuclear Energy DepartmentMinistry of Climate, Poland



Optimal use of domestic

Energy resources

Development of renewable energy

sources

Diversification of natural gas and oil

supply and development of infrastructure

Development of heating and

cogeneration

Development of power capacityand tranmission

infrastructure

Development of energy markets

Launch of nuclear energy

Improving energyefficiency

Objectives of the Polish Energy Policy



Nuclear power strategy for Poland

1. First nuclear installation, based on the advanced nuclear technology, around 1-1.5 GW until 2033

2. Next 5 new nuclear blocks till 2043 (target 6-9 GW)

3. Ensuring formal and legal conditions as well as

financing mechanism for the nuclear program

4. Human resource development for advanced NPP

5. Scientific and research programs for advanced technologies

6. Evaluation of possibilities for perspective small/modular nuclear technologies (HTR, SMR)

deployment



Perspectives on SMR deployment and support for nuclear innovations

• Although priority of Poland is to implement nuclear power program based on large-scale reactorswe are aware of potential future benefits of SMRs (like HTGRs) specially in the are of heatgeneration and co-generation

• We are closely following development of SMR as promising and future technology

• Development of capabilities in the R & D sector in the field advanced nuclear technology, including SMR/HTR

• Several scientific projects for advanced nuclear technologies in Poland, including SMR/HTGR andadvanced materials

• Growing industry interest in SMR deployment, some commercial initiatives



Nuclear research institutes

Poland has 4 institutes, subordinated to the Minister of Climate, with high competences and involvementin the field of nuclear power R&D programmes:

1. National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ)

2. Institute for Nuclear Chemistry and Technology (IChTJ)

3. Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection (CLOR)

4. Institute for Plasma Physics and Laser Microfusion (IPFiLM)



Advanced nuclear technologies – HTGR project

Decreasing dependence on fossil fuel import. HTGR may be an alternative to replace fossil fuels for industrial heat production. With expected growth of CO2 tax and low discount rate, the cost of the steam from HTGR could be comparable to that from gas, while having more secure availability and more predictable prices.

Decreasing sensitivity of economy to environmental regulations. Industry dependent on fossil fuels might become less competitive in case of stronger environmental regulations (CO2 tax, emission limits, etc.). HTGR being a zero emission technology is immune to that.

Synergy with multi-GW LWR programme. Increasing scientific and industrial potential, upgrading the regulatory framework, developing human resources and creating a supply chain, will be beneficial for both HTGR and LWR projects. Multi-Body Dynamic Analysis Computer Program For the Prismatic Core of a HTGR - Scientific

Figure on ResearchGate. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Cross-sectional-view-of-a-HTGR_fig1_281069761 [accessed 7 Nov, 2019]

Having in mind the potential of SMR/HTR technology we initiated the large scientific project on HTGRs(especially for industrial cogeneration) for the evaluation of the the following objectives:



1. Poland is closely monitoring development and advancement of SMR technology.

2. The SMR, along with the advanced large scale reactors can contribute to the renaissanceof nuclear power and be a major tool for climate change mitigation

3. We see the largest potential for SMR in Poland in the area of heat generation forindustry and urban heating needs,

4. There are several scientific projects in Poland on advanced nuclear technologies,including SMR/HTR but the priority of Poland is deployment of advanced large scalereactors because we need nuclear power to change dramatically energy mix in thecoming decades

Conclusions



Resources for nuclear power infrastructure in Poland

Thank you for attention


Kalev Kallemets - CEO and cofounder, Fermi Energia

First EU SMR deployment: Estonia

Kalev KallemetsCEO, Co-Founder



Enrico Fermi- leader of 1. world nuclear reactor CP-1

Kalev Kallemets, Ph.D. CEO Sandor Liive, M.A. Chairman of the Board (former CEO of utility Eesti Energia AS)Henri Ormus, M.Sc. Chief Nuclear OfficerMarti Jeltsov, Ph.D. Head of technologyKaspar Kööp, Ph.D. Head of nuclear safetyMait Müntel, Ph.D. Board member (founder and CEO of lingvist.com).Merja Pukari, Ph.D. Head of fuel cycle

Rainer Küngas, Ph.D. hydrogen and CO2 utilisation expert (Haldor Topsoe)Helen Cook legal partnerAllan Vrager heat and power systems engineerMihkel Loide head of communicationsMarten Vändre junior energy analyst

MOU partners: GE Hitachi, Vattenfall, Tractebel, Fortum, KBFI

http://lingvist.com/





41

60% oil shale power Generation decline due to CO2 prices

Projected CO2 prices in EU 2020-2040, EUR/t



NordPool2018/2026neto/delta

-18TWh-50TWh

-20TWh+12/-4TWh

-5 TWh-5 TWh

+48 TWh-72/50TWh

+2 TWh-6 TWh

-1 TWh-1 TWh

-9,6 TWh0 TWh

+17 TWh-13 TWh

+10 TWh0 TWh

1400MW10TWh

1400MW10TWh

5-10 TWhoil rigs

1400MW10TWh

700 MW5 TWh2025

-5,7 TWh-20TWh

-8TWh-25TWh

700 MW5 TWh2025



Baltics will end power imports from Russia/Belarus in 2026

Nuclear & wind strategy

BALTIC 2019 2026 2032 2035 2037 2040

Demand 28,5 29,5 29,6 30,4 32 32,6

Oil shale 6 4 3 2 2 0

Nat gas 3,1 3,2 3 3 2,5 2

CHP 3 3,6 4,5 4,9 4,9 4,9

Wind, PV 2 3,2 4,3 5,5 7 8,5

Hydro 3,5 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7

Nuclear target 0 0 2,5 5 7,5 10

Net import 10,9 11,8 8,6 6,3 4,4 3,5

CO2 mt 8,75 6,4 5,1 3,9 3,65 1

Imports to Baltics 2018 2019 2026 2032 2035 2037 2040

Finland 0,7 3,5 6,3? 4,4 3,3 1,4 1

Sweden 2,6 3,7 5,4? 4 3 3 2,5

Russia 4,6 7,5 0 0 0 0 0

Belarus 1 1,5 0 0 0 0 0

Poland -1 -2,3 0? 0 0 0 0

Total net import 7,9 13,9 11,7 8,4 6,3 4,4 3,5

CO2 price 15 25 30 35 40 43 46

Baltic €/MWh 47 46 55 56 56 56 56

NG power price 52,5 57 60 62,5 65 66,5 68

Oil shale power price 46,5 50 63 68,5 74 77,3 80,6



44

https://nuclear.gepower.com/build-a-plant/products/nuclear-

power-plants-overview/bwrx-300

https://nuclear.gepower.com/build-a-plant/products/nuclear-power-plants-overview/bwrx-300



SMR investment case for EU

1. BWRX- 300: credible solution for 35€/MWh LCOE power generation in 2020s; Terrestrial Energy’s

ISMR-400 very attractive MSR for load following, hydrogen.

2. EU carbon neutrality 2050 - total phaseout of fossils in power (inc. NG without CCS)

3. CO2 prices in 2030: 30-50€/t; 2040: 50-80€/t; CCS: 80-100€/t

4. Capacity factor in EU: Wind (2019)- 26%; PVs 10-20%.

5. 100GWe of SMR capacity = 300 of SMRs in EU by 2050.



Politics in Estonia

• Gov Climate- and energy committee

• Estonia supports EU climate neutrality

• NIMBY solution with leasehold a major

step

• Officials supportive

• Governemnt committee on nuclear

energy late 2020

Public acceptance of new generation „SMR

to replace fossil power Generation“:

April 2019 51%

October 2019 55%

February 2020 58%



2020 studies

1. Site screening of 3-4 sites - Tractebel, Steiger (cooling water modelling TalTach)2. Common study on BWRX-300 construction time 26 months target - Vattenfall, Merko3. SMR licencing model with 12 months licencing – Fortum, Helen Cook4. Industral steam (400GWh), district heating supply (100GWh), direct powerline study &

commercial offer5. Hydrogen & hydrogen derivatives study6. Components manufacturing domestication study7. Research team work: source term/passive safety & Emergency Planning Zone for SMRs8. 2019 studies https://fermi.ee/publikatsioonid/

https://fermi.ee/publikatsioonid/



European SMR Alliance founded - 27.01.2020, Tallinn

• European SMR Alliance is founded by SMR deployment organisations that are confident that nuclear energy that is market competitive, investable, inherently safe will have substantial contribution for European Union in achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In our view, Small Modular Reactors can best meet the above-mentioned criteria with inherently lower investment, technical and deployment risk.

• Founders: Fermi Energia, Synthos Green Energy (Poland), Guardian Power (UK), CEZ (Czech Rep.), Nuclear Ireland (Ireland).

• Open to future partners: SK, SL, ROM, BEL, NL, FIN, UKR, AUS

• Cooperation on know-how exchange, sharing of studies, common workshops (licencing, finance),sharing of business models

• Need to develop venture capital for SMR deployment (100s of VCs in clean tech) to pool billionsof EUR private capital in SMR deployment.



TEEME ÄRA!

LET’S DO IT!

June 2020 is IFNEC’s SMR Month

Stay tuned for our upcoming webinarswww.ifnec.org

3:56 PM – Paris Time


http://www.ifnec.org/

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June 2020 is IFNEC’s SMR Month

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