THE AUTO OPPORTUNITY: NORTH AMERICAN MARKET TRENDS 7th International Aluminum Congress and ExpoAlumínio 2016
JUNE 8, 2016
Joe Quinn Vice President of Public Affairs
The Aluminum Association
WHO WE ARE The Aluminum Association
• 80-Year Old Trade Association
• Represent $75B + U.S. Aluminum Industry
• Promote Aluminum as Most Sustainable Material in Today’s Market
• 113 Member Companies
• U.S. and Foreign Primary Producers, Recyclers, Fabricators and Suppliers
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ECONOMIC IMPACT
50 YEARS OF GROWTH
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
WHEELS HOODS
BUMPERS
HEADS
BLOCKS
Poun
ds P
er V
ehic
le (P
PV)
HEAT EXCHANGERS Sheet
Extrusions
Source: 2015, Ducker Worldwide
DOORS & BODY-IN- WHITE
394 lbs.
500 lbs.
DUCKER SURVEY
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2015: Highest growth year • First high-volume automotive body and structure (F-150) • Sheet and extrusions – body, closures
By 2020, every OEM will have more than one aluminum-intensive body and multiple aluminum-intensive closure programs
Source: 2015, Ducker Worldwide
ALUMINUM-INTENSIVE VEHICLES TODAY
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© Ford
© Land Rover © Jaguar © Tesla
Body-in-White & Closures
© Jaguar © Audi
F-150
Range Rover
XF
F-Pace Model S
A8
MULTI-MATERIAL VEHICLES
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The New Normal
© Cadillac
CT6
© Chevrolet
© BMW
Malibu
7-Series
S-Class
© Mercedes-Benz
i3
© BMW Pacifica
© Chrysler
© BMW
THE FORD F-150 EXPERIENCE
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• Weight Reduction: 700 pounds, 12% decrease in curb weight
• Fuel Economy: Already meeting 2024 EPA standards; best fuel economy for full-size, gas pickup
• Safety: 5-star safety rating; improvement in every category over 2014 steel model Sources: Ford Motor
Company; EPA; NHTSA; Motley Fool; Detroit Free Press
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MEETING THE DEMAND $2.7 billion in capital announced or invested in U.S. since Fall 2013
• Oct. 2015 – Tri-Arrows/Logan – $240M Expansion in Russellville, KY
• Oct. 2014 – Constellium – $750M Expansion in Muscle Shoals, AL
• Sept. 2014 – Aleris – $350M Expansion in Lewisport, KY • Jul. 2014 – Constellium/Tri-Arrows – $150M New JV Plant
in Bowling Green, KY • 2013 –> 2015 – Alcoa – $890M in Expansions in Davenport,
IA; Alcoa, TN & La Porte, IN (incl. aerospace) • 2013 –> 2016 – Novelis $300M in Expansions in Oswego,
NY
MEETING CUSTOMER NEEDS
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Source: Alcoa, Inc.
Continuous Improvement
o High Strength
o Energy Absorption
o Advanced Formability
o Manufacturing
o Sustainability
CONTINUING TO INNOVATE
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Source: The Aluminum Association
•1xxx Series
Commercially Pure Aluminum
•2xxx Series •6xxx Series •7xxx Series
Heat-Treatable Alloys
•3xxx Series •4xxx Series •5xxx Series
Non Heat-Treatable Alloys
ONGOING ADVANCEMENTS
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High Strength Energy Absorption Advanced Formability
• Kaiser, SAPA 6xxx, 7xxx Series High-Strength (280Mpa)
• Constellium Crash Management Systems
• Alcoa VersaCast ™
• Novelis Advanz™ 7000-series, 6xHS, 7xHS, s615
• Novelis Advanz™ 7000-series, 6xHS, 7xHS, s615
• Alcoa C12Z
• Novelis Advanz™ c300
• Constellium Surfalex® HF
• Novelis Advanz™ e200
• Alcoa EZCast ™
Sources: Alcoa Inc., Kaiser, SAPA, Constellium, Novelis
ONGOING ADVANCEMENTS
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Manufacturing Sustainability • Production Proven Joining
Solutions
• Novelis Fusion™, s200
• Alcoa Micromill™
• 26% reduction in energy use for primary since 1991
• 45% reduction in carbon footprint for primary since 1991
• Closed-loop recycling
• 75% of N.A. aluminum produced in Canada via hydroelectric power
Sources: Aluminum Association, Alcoa Inc., Kaiser, SAPA, Constellium, Novelis
HIGH VOLUME JOINING SOLUTIONS
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Chapters • Introduction to Joining • Fusion welding • Arc welding • Beam welding • Resistance welding • Brazing • Solid state welding • Mechanical joining • Adhesive joining • Hybrid joining techniques • Joining of dissimilar materials
Source: Aluminum Transportation Group
www.drivealuminum.org
FUEL ECONOMY MIDCOURSE REVIEW
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• 2011: Federal government agreement with 13 major U.S. automakers to increase fleetwide vehicle fuel economy to 54.5 mpg by 2025
• Part of agreement was midterm evaluation of rule in 2017 • Process begins in 2016 • Regulators could reduce, maintain or increase agreed-to standard • Standard essential to continued penetration of auto aluminum
Source: EPA
ALUMINUM TOP PICK TO MEET STANDARDS
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2015 Dupont/WardsAuto Survey • 900 automotive company
engineers • Aluminum favored among
designers and engineers to help meet 2025 fuel economy and emissions targets
Source: 2015, Dupont/Wards Auto
ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP
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Source: The Aluminum Association; 2016, Center for Resource Recovery and Recycling
Continuous Improvement
• 37% CO2 reduction for N.A. primary production since 1995
• 75% of capacity produced using renewable hydroelectric power (up from 63% in 1995)
• Automotive aluminum recycling rate in N. A. exceeds 91%
ENVIRONMENTAL SUPERIORITY
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US DOE Oak Ridge National Lab Study
• Aluminum-intensive vehicles offer lowest life cycle energy (¯ 20%) and CO2 impact (¯ 17%) vs. modern steel vehicles
• Use phase contributes over 90% of life cycle impacts
• Steel vehicle’s higher use phase energy and CO2 cancels out production phase
Source: 2014, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
ENVIRONMENTAL SUPERIORITY
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Ford/MAGNA Multimaterial Lightweight Vehicle Aluminum Intensive vs. AHSS Intensive Model
• 23.5% mass reduction
• 16% life cycle CO2 emission reduction
• 16% life cycle total energy savings
• Over 79% of life cycle net environmental reductions related to vehicle use stage
• Project received DOE Vehicle Technologies Office’s Distinguished Achievement Award
Source: 2015, SAE International
LIGHTWEIGHT CONCEPT
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HEAVY TRUCKS Lightweighting with Aluminum • Increases fuel efficiency
• Increases freight efficiency Reduces Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Enables other fuel saving technologies that add weight
The Aluminum Association • Promotes heavy truck aluminum
lightweighting in the marketplace
• Advocates for aluminum’s benefits in the heavy truck market to regulators
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MARKETPLACE OPTIONS Aluminum Lightweighting Leads the Way
Save 30 lbs. per wheel
Cab Rear Wall Save 49 lbs.
Save 20 lbs. per door
Frame Rails Save 435 lbs.
Cab X-Member Save 38 lbs.
RR Door Surround Save 150 lbs.
Landing Gear Save 50 lbs.
Cab Floor Save 56 lbs.
Slider Box Save 150 lbs.
Cab Roof Save 60 lbs.
Side Wall Save 1,000 lbs.
Rear Door Save 187 lbs.
Source: 2010, Ricardo
TELLING THE STORY
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JOIN THE CONVERSATION
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www.aluminum.org
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