KEEBECK QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 2019€¦ · KEEBECK QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 2019 . 3 earnings is huge, and...

KEEBECK QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 2019

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Q2 2019 QUARTERLY LETTER – JULY 2019

OUTSIDE OPINIONS – THOUGHTS FROM THE ROAD

Understanding what consensus is and deciding whether consensus is right or not is arguably the most important thing one can do when it comes to investing in the modern era. The role of an analyst, portfolio manager, and/or advisor has evolved to become an effective filter, sifting through the firehose of information for material news, developments, and ideas. Along those lines, I think it makes sense for at least one of our quarterly letters to primarily reflect the prevailing thoughts of the Street as well as interesting ideas and opinions we are reading. We spent a fair amount of time on the road this past quarter (New York, Dallas, North Carolina, and around town here in Chicago). We attended a number of conferences and panels, including Blackstone, JP Morgan, the Dynasty Investment Forum, and the Citywire Retreat, in addition to learning from some cutting-edge technology experts. We are constantly speaking with industry leaders in private and public markets, asset managers, and company management teams and synthesizing what we learn. We are sharing highlights of consensus and commonplace views, as well as some unique and uncommon opinions. This is a critical part of our process of searching out “big rock” ideas and themes. If you would like to refer back to our previous quarterly letters, you can find them on the News & Commentary section of our website here. - Mathew Klody, CIO As a disclaimer, by no means is this meant to be a complete summary or representation of the firms and views we highlight, but simply our interpretation of their opinions. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of this document. As this newsletter is for informational purposes, the strategies and opinions included herein may not be reflected in the management of your specific investment account(s). We manage accounts on an individualized basis, taking into consideration each client’s unique financial situation. If you have any questions regarding your investment accounts or our specific investment strategies, please contact us.

https://www.keebeck.com/news-commentary/


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Dr. David Kelly, CFA – Chief Global Strategist - JP Morgan (May 2019 - JP Morgan Wealth Management Symposium at the University of Chicago Gleacher Center) US Growth is Slowing, Not Stalling, Bonds are Generally Unattractive, Equities Marginal GDP Growth - GDP grew at 3.2% in 1Q19, but much was from inventory growth and net trade

improvement as companies built up inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. The normal pace is $45B, and to get back to there would take 1.7% off of GDP. As such, JP Morgan sees GDP moving from 3.2% down to 2.4% in 2Q, decelerating to 2% thereafter. July will mark the 11th year of the current expansion, which is the longest since the Civil War.

Economic Growth - The economy can grow, but at a slower pace. Due to the maturity of this economic growth cycle, it will be slow. Both a sixty-year-old and a thirty-year-old can run a marathon, but the sixty-year-old will be slower.

U.S. Sectors - The good news is that busts come from booms and excessive Fed tightening. Housing, autos, inventories, and capital spending represent 21% of GDP but also 66% of the volatility in GDP. None of these sectors can be considered to be in a boom state currently.

Housing has only recovered to 1.2MM starts, still well below the long-term average of 1.5-1.6MM. A collapse in housing won't put the US in a recession at only 3.8% of GDP.

Autos stalled out at 2.2% of GDP. The recovery in this sector has been fairly weak. Capital spending is modest at 13% and we are not seeing a boom.

Corrections in these sectors aren’t big enough to pull down the economy on their own. You can’t injure yourself by jumping out of a basement window.

Fed Rate - The Fed hasn't been tight as the average nominal rate prior to a recession has been 7.3% compared to its current rate of 2.3%.

Risk to the Fed - The real risk to the Fed is creating an asset bubble. Meaning, if the Fed cuts rates when the economy is slowing, it risks damaging confidence and begs the question: what are they so afraid of? This could be disastrous to cut in the face of economic weakness, as it will cause businesses to hold off on hiring and capital spending, people from buying homes, etc.

Duration and Credit Risk – Currently you are not getting paid enough to warrant taking on excess duration or credit risk. The yield curve is signifying that the economy is in a recession, but in reality, it’s not. So why are spreads so narrow? Too much money is chasing into fixed income. All the yield curve is telling us is that investors want bonds, and crowded assets ruin any asset class. Basically, if you are not getting paid for the risk, do not take it.

Equities vs Bonds – Equities are still preferred over bonds because stocks are still cheaper than bonds. Stocks are close to long-term average price/earnings ratio (P/E) of 16x, on 4% earnings per share (EPS) growth, with half of that EPS growth due to buybacks. However, the absolute level of


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earnings is huge, and margins are at a peak. There is a real risk that politicians say companies are performing too well (refer to our 1Q19 letter on this topic, found here). It is possible that we are not at a cyclical peak, but at a cyclical plateau. Earnings and potentially higher taxes make stocks dodgy and expensive. Within the domestic stock market it is tough to come up with a good theme.

Alternatives – Private Equity (PE) – There is a huge amount of money flowing into PE. The number of listed companies has fallen from 8,000 in 1999 to 5,500 now (see PE chart below). Too much money will ruin any asset class, and in recent years, the S&P (modified for the amount of leverage PE uses) has performed better. There is an enormous spread in managers, so it is imperative to be diligent on managerial selection.

Utilities – Regulators have not caught up with the fact that cash has been paying nearly nothing. This is a risk for the utilities sector.

John Bilton, CFA – MD Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy – JP Morgan Asset Management – 2Q19

• “Nevertheless, we can’t shake the nagging feeling that asset markets are merely desensitized to the macroeconomic challenges that fueled the late 2018 sell-off even as those issues still lurk just beneath the surface”

• “We are unconvinced that the Fed’s pivot fired the starting gun on an extended, 2016–17 style rally: Financial conditions may have eased, but the economy is in later cycle, and there is less scope for an unleashing of pent-up demand. For all that, we have observed enough of the vagaries of post-global financial crisis (GFC) central bank maneuverings not to want to stand in the way of easier policy. This leaves us in a somewhat unsatisfactory holding pattern, and we expect equity markets to trade

https://www.keebeck.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Keebeck-Quarterly-Letter-1Q19.pdf


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sideways in a range for the time being, while carry assets and duration remain supported. From a macroeconomic perspective, let’s start with the good news. The objective probability of a recession in the next 12 months remains low by late-cycle standards. And with the Fed communicating a pause in its rate hiking cycle, we think the business cycle is probably extended by a couple of quarters. With higher frequency macro data at a low ebb and corporate earnings forecasts back to levels commensurate with slightly subtrend global GDP growth, the frothy sentiment of 2018 has dissipated and there is potential for modest upside surprise in the next quarter or two.”

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Karen Ward – International Strategist at JPM (May - 2019 JP Morgan Wealth Management Symposium at the University of Chicago Gleacher Center)

Chinese Economy - What is going wrong? The Chinese economy is slowing dramatically. China has grown so large that when China sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. China has replaced the US as the trigger/impulse in the global economy. This was prior to the current trade hostilities which will continue to compound the issue.

Chinese Trade and Europe - China only exports 3.6% of GDP to the US vs. 0.5% imported from the US, but second round effects are damaging as capital expenditure intentions in Europe “fall off a cliff”. Everyone is holding off and waiting to see how the future of global supply chains will develop.


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Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI SA 11/30/17 – 6/30/19 Source: Bloomberg

EU Financial Sector – Negative rates and further easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) are

bad for financials, which represent 20% of benchmarks in Europe. Brexit – The U.K. is utterly divided on Brexit - 52% voted to leave, 48% to remain. There is no easy

solution in sight. International Growth - Europe (excluding the U.K.) gets a lot of revenue from outside of the EU. We

can't get excited about Europe, but we can get excited about other parts of world. Asia has plenty of capacity to stimulate, as all of its debt is internal.

EM Volatility - Current price/book ratio (P/B) in emerging markets (EM) is 1.7x. From this level the annualized return has been 10-20% over the following ten years, but it is a volatile asset class with the following year ranging from down 40% to up 60%.

International Opportunities - Should investors even bother internationally? If one thinks the US has three to five years of growth in this cycle, then the answer is no. However, if tax cuts were a sugar rush and domestic margins are rich, then selectively look internationally.

Trade War Tensions - A trade war is more likely now than a year ago because the economy has been strong, which makes Trump less afraid. He doesn't want to appear weak; he wants a fight. The problem is that in 2002 China was 14% the size of the US economy. Now it is 66% the size of the US economy at market exchange rates. China doesn't need the US as much as they once did, as China has multiple ways to create leverage such as taking oil from Iran, selling US Treasuries, developing bi-lateral trade deals with Russia, etc.


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Nationalism - Don't underestimate the importance of nationalism. The Chinese still remember gunboat diplomacy, and media is ramping up.

Dollar Strength - If the trade war continues, it is harder to make a case for EM due to a stronger dollar. The opposite is true if there is a resolution and the dollar weakens.

Fed Rate Cuts - Everyone halts if the Fed starts cutting. The Fed can't stimulate the economy by cutting rates at their current level of 2.4%.

2020 Election - The next election is only 18 months away, and there will be no stimulus because Democrats won’t give the president anything before the 2020 election.


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The Case for EM - The long-term play is EM. The United States, with only 5% of global population, doesn't deserve to be 56% of the market cap. With a twenty-year time horizon, EM should represent 50% of portfolios. Only 11% of global stock market cap is in EM, but GDP share is multiples of that.

Global Expansion - What will the world look like in 2050? The focus on education, property rights, and healthcare in Asia provides the most optimism. Africa looks strong as well, as there will be more people in Nigeria than in the U.S. at that time.

Trade Agreement – If there is trade peace, the long-term view is that the value of the dollar will still come down. The U.S. will grow more slowly, run a big trade deficit, and the Federal Reserve will stop tightening.

International Opportunity - JPM shared the following charts which I think frame the potential long-term opportunity internationally (particularly EM) quite well. Key factors shown below include rapid middle class expansion, reasonable historical valuations, and underrepresentation in most US investor’s porfolios.


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2019 – Dynasty Annual Investments Forum – Dallas (April) Our network partner hosted a gathering of network investment professionals, CIOs, and executives to learn from each other and a number of external managers across fixed income, equities, and alternatives, including PIMCO, Blackrock, Nuveen, iCapital, JP Morgan, Neuberger Berman, Blackstone, Capital Group, Honeycomb, Harding Loevner, State Street, Fidelity and O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. The basic theory of a typical asset allocation model is based upon the general premise that the correlation between fixed income and equity performance is generally immaterial and/or negative. Bonds go up during periods of uncertainty while equities go down and vice versa. However, a decade of quantitative easing and manipulation of markets by global central banks have increased correlation in these asset classes calling into question the efficacy of the traditional asset allocation model. Some of the more interesting takeaways from the conference include: Fidelity – Jurrien Timmer, PM & Director of Global Macro Strategy CASH HAS BECOME THE DIVERSIFYING ASSET 60/40 Model - Historical asset allocation models are broken. The 60/40 model is entirely based upon

inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, but this is not happening. This is what quantitative easing and negative rates have wrought. Fixed income used to be negatively correlated with equity and international equities less correlated with domestic equities, but this is no longer the case.

Due to the breakdown in the historically negative correlation between equities and fixed income, bonds have become less attractive while cash has become more attractive.

Regardless of these changing correlations, one thing that is clear is that to achieve mid to upper single digit returns, one is required to take on much more risk in his or her portfolio than was necessary 10-20 years ago. This can be seen in the below charts from Callan:


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EM Cyclicality - Emerging markets have become the cyclical part of the global economy. It is better

to bet on this early cycle than late cycle. China has a two-year economic cycle, from crisis to policy response, which is then repeated.

If the fed were to cut rates, Jurrien would allocate more to EM. United States Economy – The U.S. economy is fairly strong, but EPS growth is slowing. The market

feels to Timmer like December of 2018 felt like 1994 or 1998, where the sentiment was very negative. INTL vs USD - Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are no longer a diversifier unless the dollar

drops. Typically, in risk off scenarios, the dollar usually rises. Trade War - The trade war is more than just about unfair trade, it’s about containment. It is just one

front in a long-term geopolitical war. There will be a trade deal, and you will want to sell the news. China’s Growth - China can’t grow at 6.5% forever because it will become parabolic. EU Growth - European banks need to be cleaned up to help stimulate EU growth.


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Pimco, BlackRock, Nuveen, Ares, iCapital, & Other Thoughts from the Road Flattening yield curve hurts the value factor. High-quality factor is expensive. The important question to ask here is: Has the quality premium been

fully discounted? Currently there is more value in cyclical factors such as financials. Private Equity appears non-correlative to the S&P, because you don’t have to mark it to the market. The paradox of skill – too many smart people chasing an asset makes that asset overvalued. Creating

an edge is harder to achieve because asset management has become so competitive. As skill level improves, outcomes are caused more by luck, making it harder to find a manager who sustainably wins.

The best analysts today are “intelligent filters” because information is cheap and ubiquitous. One more Fed hike this year and one next year is expected - what a difference a few months makes. Munis Muni yields have compressed more than

taxable given the State and Local Taxes (SALT) cap, particularly at the short end of the muni curve. SALT is changing behavior and causing some froth.

Given 2017 tax reform, banks and insurance companies (historically providers of liquidity to the municipal market) are likely to get involved during shortages of liquidity at lower levels due to the lower corporate tax rates. This means we could see an interesting market develop in munis.

Private Credit - $1.2TN of dry powder is held at private equity firms. PE will need $1TN in private credit to put that to work. There are a lot of new private credit managers out there, and the barriers to entry are lower.

EM debt – Emerging markets represent 2/3rds of global growth, further adding to EM exposure.


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Corporate Debt We wrote about the high level of corporate debt in our recent letter, and this topic is gaining heightened attention. I’m including a link to a VERY LONG piece on what the author believes are growing imbalances in the corporate debt market. It is a bit alarmist, but a number of the points are worth consideration, and it provides a great deal of historical data all in one place: This Time Is Different, but It Will End the Same Way.


https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3379979




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Colleague Joe Polakoff attended a conference hosted by BNY Mellon Pershing at which Lori Heinel, Deputy Global Chief Investment Officer at State Street Global Advisors spoke. She characterized the economy as “Late Cycle, Not End Cycle”. When asked whether corporate debt levels were too high, Lori agreed, but posed the argument that at current debt servicing levels, the cost to maintain is much lower given the ultra-low level of rates. The chart to the left is a good reminder of how this recovery hasn’t been as robust as prior cycles.

Source: Macrobond, SSGA Economics, BEA. Updated as of 2/5/2019

Populism Update – Bannon to Rome Our 1Q19 letter focused on this topic and its ramifications for politics and markets. In our meeting in the second quarter, it came up more than once that Steve Bannon, one of the political masterminds behind Trump’s 2016 victory, had established a beachhead in Europe, purchasing a monastery in the mountains outside of Rome. Italy is one of the major fronts in the EU where populist pro-Italy, anti-EU/globalist parties are making significant advances. With Europe decelerating, these movements have the potential to make further gains. Most assume populism and populist inspired policies are bad for markets. However, does this necessarily have to be the case? PIMCO, in their Secular Outlook published in May 2019, discussed populism in a way that I found more creative than most headlines. They attempted to distinguish the nuances of populism’s impact on economies and markets, boiling it down to populism is bad if it leads to a breakdown in global trade, but it may be good if it leads to the adoption of policies tackling overregulation, taxation, and inequality. Here are some highlights of that piece.


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PIMCO – Secular Outlook - May 2019 “Our baseline outlook is for lackluster global growth, low inflation, and New Neutral interest rates over

the next three to five years. A shallow recession followed by a sluggish recovery remains likely.” “Risks to the outlook are significant, however, as China, evolving populist movements, aging societies,

technological change, financial market vulnerability, and climate instability all have the potential to disrupt economies and markets.”

“These risks, combined with stretched valuations, have created a difficult investment environment that we believe favors caution, flexibility, and liquidity over yield-chasing. That said, a disruptive market atmosphere should also provide attractive opportunities for active investors.”

“Equity markets may see lower absolute returns and more volatility. We prefer U.S. duration as a hedge against declines in risk assets and continue to view U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities as a relatively stable and defensive potential source of income. We will pursue high-conviction ideas in corporate credit while remaining cautious on overall credit beta.”

“Beware of fat tails and radical uncertainty… the probability distribution of economic outcomes in the next three to five years has fatter tails than usual. Moreover, when it comes to factors such as geopolitics and populism, it is even impossible to attach any probabilities to possible outcomes, giving rise to “radical uncertainty.””

“Investors who just extrapolate the relatively benign macro and market environment of the last five to 10 years into the future will be in for some “Rude Awakenings.””

PIMCO on Populism Populist movements, parties, and candidates will likely continue to disrupt national and international

politics and policymaking over the next three to five years…. could result in either positive or negative economic and financial market outcomes.

Economic growth and asset prices would be supported if populist governments or traditional governments under pressure from a populist opposition tackle overly zealous regulations, reduce the tax burden, and/or address excessive inequality… more detrimental to growth and asset prices, especially when they (policies) are aimed at slowing or reversing globalization by increasing impediments to immigration, cross-border trade in goods and services, and capital flows.

Another implication of the rise of populism and the fact that it comes in many different forms is that economic policies and outcomes are likely to become more divergent across countries… Open markets, inflation targeting, and flexible exchange rates – led to a certain convergence of economic policies in many advanced and emerging countries. Over the secular horizon, we expect more varied and in some cases more extreme policy approaches, which could increase the importance of the country factor for asset price determination and also produce larger exchange rate variability.

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/macro-perspectives/king-keynes-and-knight-insights-into-an-uncertain-economy

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/secular-outlook/2018/rude-awakenings


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Along this line of thinking, perhaps populist pressure leading to stimulus spending could be the thing Europe and other developed economies need. However, if populist protectionist forces win out, that would likely be a negative. This is an important distinction because most assume all populism will be bad for economies and markets. One thing that is likely in either scenario, it will probably be inflationary and bad for long duration bonds. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/secular-outlook/2019/economic-outlook-2019 Populism and Currencies Following up on last quarter’s letter, Senator Warren went so far as to directly call for “active management” of the dollar to boost jobs. Along the lines of Trump attacking the Fed, presidential candidates calling for active management of the dollar would be considered incredibly heterodox just a few years ago. Trump will draft off of this idea in the coming election. We are crossing the Rubicon here, and eventually, what previously seemed to be radical ideas may be implemented. Ironically, Warren, who is considered to be on the far Left, is drafting off nationalistic concepts very similar to Bannon’s at the opposite end of the political spectrum. In reality, economic nationalism unites both sides. As I wrote last quarter, the Left won’t be outflanked any longer when it comes to populism. Warren Calls for ‘Actively Managing’ Dollar Value to Boost Jobs by Sahil Kapur and Saleha Mohsin (Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/warren-calls-for-actively-managing-dollar-value-to-boost-jobs Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren called for “actively managing” the dollar to bolster U.S. jobs and growth, a move that would break from a longstanding currency policy agreement among the world’s 20 major economies. In a plan she released June 4th, 2019, Warren said managing the U.S. currency would “promote exports and domestic manufacturing," aligning her more with President Donald Trump, who has blamed a strong dollar for hurting U.S. exports, than with past Democratic administrations. “If we can aggressively intervene in markets to protect the interests of the wealthy and well-connected

-- as we have for decades with bailouts and subsidies -- then we can damn well use all the tools at our disposal to protect the interests of American workers.”

The U.S. Dollar Index rose near 50% from its 2008 bottom during the global financial crisis through Trump’s January 2017 inauguration.

The Massachusetts senator released her economic proposals ahead of campaign trips to Michigan and Indiana, where she’s expected to discuss her vision of "economic patriotism."

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/secular-outlook/2019/economic-outlook-2019

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/secular-outlook/2019/economic-outlook-2019


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/warren-calls-for-actively-managing-dollar-value-to-boost-jobs

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/warren-calls-for-actively-managing-dollar-value-to-boost-jobs


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US Stock Market Inefficient? We don’t currently have a relationship with them but found our meeting with Bailie Gifford interesting and their pitchbook unorthodox. Common wisdom is that markets, particularly the large cap US markets are incredibly efficient. Bailie and the study they cite below would indicate otherwise. “The majority of common stocks that have appeared in the CRSP database since 1926 have lifetime buy-and-hold returns less than one-month Treasuries. When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation, the best-performing four percent of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire U.S. stock market since 1926, as other stocks collectively matched Treasury bills. These results highlight the important role of positive skewness in the distribution of individual stock returns, attributable both to skewness in monthly returns and to the effects of compounding. The results help to explain why poorly-diversified active strategies most often underperform market average.”

Stock market wealth creation is defined as an accumulation of value (inclusive of reinvested dividends) in excess of the value that would have been obtained had the invested capital earned one-month treasury bill interest rates. Reading the data: The data includes all 25,967 CRSP common stocks (25,332 companies) from 1926 to 2016. Beyond the best-performing 1,092 companies, an additional 9,579 (37.8%) created positive wealth over their lifetimes, just offset by the wealth destruction of the remaining 14,661 (57.9% of total) firms. The implication is that just 4.3% of firms collectively account for all of the net wealth creation in the US stock market since 1926.

Source: Hendrik Bessembinder, Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? (August 2017)/Baillie Gifford


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Keebeck Viewpoints Typically, our asset class views won’t change over the very short-term, unless there is a significant movement in asset prices or fundamentals. “Staying on our blocks” is usually the best approach long-term. Here are some of our current views*: Overweight international and emerging markets and non-dollar securities Underweight corporate debt and heavily leveraged securities Underweight private equity Overweight value vs growth Overweight short duration vs long duration Overweight domestic housing

Conclusion This letter has focused on providing a collection of diverse views and opinions from a variety of third parties. We hope that you found this collection of thoughts additive to your investment knowledge, perspective and preparation in these unprecedented times. We hope you enjoy your summer! Sincerely,

Mathew T. Klody, CFA Chief Investment Officer Keebeck Wealth Management, LLC [email protected] * As this newsletter is for informational purposes, the strategies and opinions included herein may not be reflected in the management of your specific investment account(s). We manage accounts on an individualized basis, taking into consideration each client’s unique financial situation. If you have any questions regarding your investment accounts or our specific investment strategies, please contact us.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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Appendix – Interesting Charts & Tweets

US household net worth measured as a percent of GDP is basically at an all-time high.


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Widely known as Warren Buffet’s favorite measure of “fair value” for the market is total US stock market

capitalization divided by GDP.


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Despite Bruce’s love for Aaron and the Packers, we found this tweet amusing. Some think we are in later stages of this venture capital cycle. One venture capitalist I met with recently told me, “Historically there

were a lot of ideas and not enough money… presently there is a lot of money and not enough ideas.”


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Virtually no one predicted how low yields would fall just seven months ago.


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Biography Mathew T. Klody, CFA is the Chief Investment Officer at Keebeck Wealth Management, LLC. Mathew is also an adjunct professor of finance at the University of Notre Dame. Prior to joining Keebeck, Mathew was the Founder, Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager of MCN Capital Management, LLC, the advisor to a private long short investment partnership. Mathew was the Senior Vice President and Analyst at Chicago-based Sheffield Asset Management, a long/short equity hedge fund from 2007-2012. From 2003-2007, Mathew was an Investment Analyst at the holding company of Alleghany Corporation (ticker "Y") covering the equity portfolio, corporate development and the reinsurance portfolio. Mr. Klody began his career as a credit analyst at the Global Corporate and Investment Bank at Bank of America. Mathew has been selected to speak at a number of industry events, including the Spring 2017 Grant’s Interest Rate Observer conference, Invest for Kids - Chicago (Fall of 2017), and the MOI Global - Best Ideas Conference (2018). He has served as a guest lecturer to the Notre Dame Institute for Global Investing, the Behavioral Finance and Applied Investment Management programs at the Mendoza College of Business. He serves as a member of the Parish Council at St. Joan of Arc Church in Lisle, IL. Mathew graduated summa cum laude from the University of Notre Dame with a degree in finance and business economics. Mr. Klody is a Chartered Financial Analyst.


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DISCLOSURES

Hyperlinks or referenced websites are for your reference and convenience, and forward you to third parties’ websites, which generally are recognized by their top level domain name. Any descriptions of, references to, or links to other products, publications or services does not constitute an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship by or affiliation with Keebeck Wealth Management with respect to any linked site or its sponsor, unless expressly stated by Keebeck Wealth Management. Any such information, products or sites have not necessarily been reviewed by Keebeck Wealth Management and are provided or maintained by third parties over whom Keebeck Wealth Management exercise no control. Keebeck Wealth Management expressly disclaim any responsibility for the content, the accuracy of the information, and/or quality of products or services provided by or advertised on these third-party sites.

This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S.

market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of Keebeck Wealth Management or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made.

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KEEBECK QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 2019€¦ · KEEBECK QUARTERLY LETTER Q2 2019 . 3 earnings is huge, and...

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