Q2 2013 virginia quarterly report

VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se

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Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.


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13Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

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Month

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2010 2011 2012 2013

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2010 4,562 4,892 7,087 8,337 8,903 10,493 7,137 7,210 6,427 6,035 6,010 6,4682011 4,728 5,116 7,145 7,311 8,391 9,223 7,970 8,136 6,916 6,263 6,070 6,7582012 5,068 5,775 7,213 7,698 9,064 9,740 8,664 9,026 7,212 7,258 7,403 6,9102013 5,560 5,911 7,427 8,602 10,383 10,514

The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 11% higher than the second quarter of 2012. This significant year-over-year increase reflects relatively high sales in May 2013. There were 29,499 home sales in Virginia in the second quarter of 2013, 2,997 more sales than in the second quarter of 2012.

April 2013 (+11.7% YOY) had a moderate year-over-year improvement, while May 2013 (+14.6% YOY) showed extremely strong year-over-year gains in home sales. Sales leveled off in June 2013, so July numbers may indicate whether we will continue to see signs of further recovery this year.




16,541

27,733

20,798

18,558

17,105

24,906

23,001

19,099 18,056

26,502

24,902

21,571

18,898

29,499

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

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Quarter

Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

In the second quarter we experienced a sharp increase in home sales and a significant year-over-year increase. So far this year, sales have surpassed 2010 sales, indicating that the market is performing better on its own than it did with significant tax incentives in 2010.

+11%YOY




90,703

93,279

87,921

83,630 84,194

81,367

83,570 84,11185,062

86,65888,559

91,031 91,873

94,870

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

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Quarter

Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This graph highlights that our housing market is performing better than it did in the second quarter of 2010 when the market received a boost from tax incentives. Surpassing market performance in 2010 without the tax credits is an important milestone in Virginia’s market recovery.

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q2 figure (94,870 sales) includes home sales from 2012-Q3 through 2013-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over 4 quarters of annualized data.

Post Tax-Credit DeclineMARKET RECOVERY!




Region 2012-Q2 2013-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley 1,437 1,601 11.4%

Central Virginia 4,210 4,589 9.0%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 5,835 6,363 9.0%

Northern Virginia 12,412 13,945 12.4%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,902 2,210 16.2%

Southside Virginia 399 430 7.8%Southwest Virginia 307 355 15.6%

All of Virginia 26,502 29,493 11.3%

Central Valley+11.4%

Northern Virginia+12.4%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+16.2%

Southwest Virginia+15.6% Southside Virginia

+7.8%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+9.0%

Central Virginia+9.0%

Regional Changes in Sales2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2 Units

The significant increase in home sales this quarter was experienced throughout the state. Every region saw significant increases in sales. Notably, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg area, the Central Valley and Southside experienced very high sales after a slower first quarter. In addition, the year-over-year increases in these areas are among the highest in the state.




$225

,000 $2

39,9

00

$249

,900

$232

,500

$210

,000

$232

,694

$235

,000

$220

,000

$215

,000

$249

,500

$248

,000

$241

,000

$232

,600

$269

,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

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Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

The median sales price in Virginia increased 7.8% over the past year to $269,000 for all residential sales. This increase represents a strong, steady climb and does not reflect the steep and possibly volatile price increases that have been reported in some parts of the nation. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 12.1% over the past three years, as measured by second quarter sales data.

+12.1%

+7.8%




Region 2012-Q2 2013-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley $210,000 $220,000 4.8%

Central Virginia $185,500 $200,000 7.8%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $204,900 $211,900 3.4%

Northern Virginia $355,000 $385,000 8.5%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $156,987 $165,000 5.1%

Southside Virginia $87,500 $81,524 -6.8%Southwest Virginia $115,000 $114,000 -0.9%

All of Virginia $249,500 269,000 7.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+5.1%

Central Valley+4.8%

Northern Virginia+8.5%

Southwest Virginia-0.9% Southside Virginia

-6.8%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+3.4%

Central Virginia+7.8%

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2

Nearly every region in Virginia is now experiencing increases in median sales prices. Large numbers of sales mean these numbers reflect the volume of sales in each region. The regions colored in green are experiencing steady increases in price, evidence of a healthy market recovery. Prices in Southwest Virginia may be stabilizing. Southside’s continued decline in prices, despite the market’s continued recovery is evidence of the region’s overall economic context.




4,553

8,198

6,410

5,446

4,503

7,307

6,789

5,275

4,866

8,197

7,684

6,465

5,482

9,736

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

Mill

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Quarter

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2013 ($9.7B) was a strong 18% increase from the second quarter of 2010 ($8.2B). This comparison is important because the 2013 housing market has advanced beyond the 2010 second quarter volume, without the help of the tax credits that boosted the spring 2010 numbers.

18% YOY




86

7982

91

104

94 93

100103

85 8488

91

71

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

Aver

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Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Time on market decreased 16% from the second quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the second quarter of 2013 (10% fewer days on the market than the second quarter fo 2010). In June, homes stayed on the market an average of 64 days. The market is moving homes extremely fast, faster than it has since August of 2006.

-10%YOY

-16%YOY




2,980

7,127

6,622

4,657

2,987

3,555

990

440

89

52

3,048

7,058

5,987

4,007

2,376

2,908

709

302

69

42

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000

0 - $100K

$100K - $200K

$200K - $300K

$300K - $400K

$400K - $500K

$500K - $750K

$750K - $1M

$1M - $1.5M

$1.5M - $2M

$2M +

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Pric

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Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2012-Q2 2013-Q2

+24%

+29%

+46%

+40%

+22%

+26%

+16%

+11%

-2%

+1%

Home sales increased in all price ranges, except the $0-$100K range during the second quarter of 2013, as compared to the second quarter of 2012. The decline in the $0-$100K range is likely the result of declining inventory in this range which inflates generally rising home prices. It is very likely that some homes that were previously in the $0-$100K price range have moved up into the $100-$200K range.

The ranges from $100K to $400K seem to have stabilized, while the upper end of the market seems to be experiencing a revival. The ranges $750K-$1M and $1M-$1.5M experienced extremely large year-over-year increases in sales, 40% and 46% respectively.




Region 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley 62 58 -6%

Central Virginia 302 377 25%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 498 494 -1%

Northern Virginia 650 595 -8%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 67 65 -3%

Southside Virginia 37 27 -27%Southwest Virginia 24 16 -33%

All of Virginia 1,640 1,632 0%

Central Valley-6%

Northern Virginia-8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-3%

Southwest Virginia-33% Southside Virginia

-27%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

-1%

Central Virginia+25%

Regional Changes in Foreclosures2013-Q1 vs. 2013-Q2

Foreclosures held steady in Virginia this quarter. Most regions experienced fewer foreclosures, but Central Virginia experienced a significant spike in foreclosures. If the number of foreclosures continue to decrease throughout 2013, the added inventory from foreclosures will begin to clear.




9,06410,383

399,000459,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13(p)

May-13(p)

Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$250,000$267,000

$180,200$208,700

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13(p)

May-13(p)

Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

Median sales prices in Virginia have remained more stable than in the United States as a whole. Prices in Virginia have increased slightly more this year (22% from January to May) compared to the US as a whole (19% from January to May), but still basically track the US numbers.

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both United States (existing home sales only) and Virginia sales continued to increase into the second quarter and experienced a modest year over year increase.




Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2013

(U.S. rate = 7.6 percent)

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6 0% t 7 9%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

7.4%7.1% 6.9% 6.7%

6.4% 6.5% 6.6%6.2%

5.9% 6.0% 5.9%5.6%

5.3%

4%5%5%6%6%7%7%8%8%

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to decrease into the second quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in May. Virginia’s unemployment remains low despite some economic stressors over second quarter. Although we are not back to pre-recession rates, we are well on our way.

2013-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2013 data.




4.91%

4.45% 4.41%

4.85%4.66%

4.31%

4.01% 3.92%3.80%

3.54%3.36%

3.50%3.69%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

4.3%

3.9%3.8%

4.1%

3.9%

3.5%3.3%

3.2%3.0%

2.8%2.7% 2.7%

2.9%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

Mortgage interest rates increased slightly in the second quarter of 2013. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low. Since unemployment remains low and interest rates are beginning to rise, some opportunistic buyers may begin to enter the market.




The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:

Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley:

Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Southside Virginia:

Southwest Virginia:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

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Q2 2013 virginia quarterly report

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