LECTURE L04ADJACENT POSSIBLE

The S-curveBased on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle

Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

The Law of Accelerating ReturnsEvolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.

Exponential World

Local and linear

Global and Exponential

February 14th 1876

Alexander G. Bell filed a patent application at the US Patent Office, on the harmonic telegraph, including its use for transmitting vocal sounds

On the same day another inventor, Elisha Gray, filed a patent caveat for improving the telegraph

The Bell vs. Gray Controversy

Ideas usually come at similar time

Who invented the telephone?

When All the Enabling Technologies are Ready

Why was the telephone invented in 1876, but not 1826 or 1926?

With electricity, wires, batteries and with the workmanship and tools and with the knowledge of these, at the time, it was possible in 1876 to create a working telephone

Adjacent Possible

Adjacent Possible

Inventions have their time in history due to the possibilities of the

environment at any given time. Inventions tend to happen within the boundaries of the adjacent possible, or the realm of possibilities available

at any given moment Steven Johnson

Adjacent Possible

Inventions tend to happen within the boundaries of the adjacent possible, or the realm of possibilities available

at any given moment

Steven Johnson

Adjacent Possible

...a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of the present state of

things, a map of all the ways in which the present can reinvent itself

Steven Johnson

Ideas usually come at similar time

Electricity, wires, telegraph, batteries, …

Enabling Technology

Existing technology that can be usedto build new technologies

Why was the computer invented in the 1940s and not in the 1840s?

Think about this!

Charles Babbage

Sometimes called Inventor of the Computer

Wanted to remove the inevitable human errors from computing

Believed that machines could replace laborious and error-prone calculations - “calculate by steam”

Charles Babbage

Machine to compute polynomials

Got grants but efforts were slow

Lack of workmanship of the time delayed the project

Worked stopped 1833

Difference Engine

Analytical engineBabbage started on a new machine in 1834

Programmable machine – with primitive programming language

Input was in punched cards

Run by steam

Augusta Ada Byron Countess of Lovelace

Mathematician and scientist

Worked with Babbage on his Analytical Engine

The first programmer

Notes by the TranslatorAda worte notes on the Analytical machine

1. General purpose machine - mill to calculate, store to keep data, and formulas2. Machine was not limited to math - could by any symbol - words, logic, music3. Step by step instructions - programs, subroutines

Adjacent Possible

When all the enabling technologies are ready, new

inventions will be emerge

Adjacent Possible

The inventor must use the components that exist in his

environmentSteven Johnson

Imagesource:http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm

Vacuum tubes were used to build computers

Toaster

Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project

Source:TED.com

"Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster. He could just about make a sandwich

and that was it." — Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992

“And that was something that reoccurred throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale you want to work on, the further back in time you

have to go” — Thomas Thwaites

Layers of Technology

Prevailing Technology

The dominant technology at any

given time

New inventions will improve

Source:www.pianoworld.com/gallery/piano_pictures2.htm

Ideas build upon Ideas

Every generation of technology

becomes a source for new innovations

Combinatory Process

New technology is created by combining other existing

technology in new ways

Layers of Technology

Technologies evolves layer by layer, from simple to complex

technologies

Web of Technology

Products are made using different parts using many technologies - confection of

ideas

Gall’s Law

All complex systems that work, evolved from simpler system that worked

“I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read

The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both

parties benefit. — Milton Friedman

The Law of Disappearing Technology

When some technique is mastered, it will “disappear” as something

obvious and trivial, and other more useful things that are built on top of it

That means when technology disappears

it becomes useful

The Law of Disappearing Technology

Electricity

The Law of Disappearing Technology

Internet

The Law of Disappearing Technology

The Resistance Corollary

Even outdated things that should “disappear” don’t

due to supposed importance

Phone books

Checks

Fax machines

Keys

Plastic cards

Landline phones

Printednewspapers

Lottery terminals

The Prevailing Technology Trap

The Prevailing Technology Trap

Current and dominant technology will highly influence and restrict

new innovations

Current and dominant technology will highly influence new innovation, and can

even restrict them

Innovators are so influenced by the current technologies that they will try to work according to them, including their

limitations.

The Prevailing Technology Trap

Technology Cramming

Technology Cramming

Two Waves of Products Development

In the first wave the product is restricted by the prevailing

technology, but in the second, there is something new

Two Waves of Products Development

Web 1.0 Web 2.0

Two Waves of Products Development

One2Many Many2Many

Timeline

Each wave creates number of new inventions

Timeline

When the time is right, new ideas will emerge

Next

L05 How Innovation Happens