LECTURE L06INNOVATION

Installation period Deployment Period

Institutional recomposition

Deg

ree

of te

chno

logi

cal m

atur

ity

and

mar

ket s

atur

atio

n

time

CrashTechnology Trigger Next big bang

Techno-economic split

IRRUPTION

Financial Bubble Time

FRENZY

Golden Age

SYNERGY

MATURITY

Source: Carlota Perez

INSTALLATIONPERIOD

TURNINGPOINT DEPLOYMENT

Age of Information 1971 Internet mania and

financial casino2000 & 2008

The Industrial Revolution 1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap

Age of Steam and Railways 1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom

Age of Steel and Electricity 1875 Infrastructure

bubbles 1890-95The Belle Époque (Europe)

Progressive Era (USA)

Age of Oil andAutomobile 1908 The Roaring

Twenties 1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age

The New Golden Age?

Source: Carlota Perez

Technological Revolution

Adjacent Possible

StevenJohnson

The inventor must use the components that exist in

his environment

Combinatory Process

New technology is created by combining other

existing technology in new ways

Gall’s Law

All complex systems that work, evolved from

simpler system that worked

The Law of Disappearing Technology

When some technique is mastered, it will

“disappear” as something obvious and trivial, and

other more useful things that are built on top of it

The Resistance Corollary

Even outdated things that should “disappear” don’t

due to supposed importance

Complexity of Technology

Local and linear

Global and Exponential

Population

Population explotion 7 billion people

ProsperityGDP per person

Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex

TED Lecture

Slide from Matt Ridley’s 2010 TED talk

How does innovation happen?

Who invented…

TelephonePhonographCombustion enginePhotographic film

Alexander G. BellThomas EdisonKarl BenzGeorge Eastman

AC Motor Nikola TeslaSafety razor King Camp Gillette

The Brilliant Scientist working in his lab

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla

Nikola Tesla

Tomas Edison

“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.”

– Thomas Edison

How Does Innovation Really Happen?

Change in Technology

Innovation

Something newly introduced, such as a new method or device

Innovation

Innovation

DisruptiveSustaining Evolutionary Revolutionary

Innovation

Innovation

Sustaining Technology – Evolutionary

An innovation that improves a product in an existing market in ways that customers are expecting

Red Oceans — commodities

An innovation that creates a new market by allowing customers to solve a problem in a radically new way

May not be affordable enough to be disruptive

Innovation

Sustaining Technology – Revolutionary

FordModelT

Disruptive Technology

An innovation that creates a new (an unexpected) market by applying a different set of values.

Affordable so the impact is major

Innovation

How does innovation really happen?

"We take the ideas we've inherited or stumbled across, and we jigger them together

into some new shape." – Steven Johnson

The Coffee House

Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from

Where good ideas come from | Steven Johnson TED Lecture, 2010

The Medici Effect

Environment of the space Where people meet

Where ideas have sex

But innovation comes from people meeting up in the hallways or

calling each other at 10:30 at night with a new idea, or because they

realised something that shoots holes in how we've been thinking

about a problem. — Steve Jobs

The Liquid network

A good idea is a network. Innovations happens with

collaboration. — Steven Johnson

The Liquid network

Innovations happen when ideas are shared.

— Steven Johnson

The importance of cities

The Hummingbird Effect

Unexpected consequence of new innovations

The Hummingbird Effect

The Hummingbird Effect

SmartphonesDIY DronesiPad

Printed pressDIY DronesFilming effects, harvestingGames for 2-5 years olds

Spectacles

The Hummingbird Effect

The Eureka Moment!

Sir Isaac Newton

The Slow Hunch

A lot of ideas linger on, sometimes for decades,

in the back of people’s minds

— Steven Johnson

Source:http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/187881/Douglas-Engelbart

Douglas Englebart 1965 Apple Macintosh 1984

Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm

The 10/10 Rule

Any technology that is going to have significant impact

over the next 10 years is already at least 10 years old

The 10/10 Rule

10 years to build a newplatform, 10 years for it

to be adopted

What do the following products have in common?

LSDPost-it notes Viagra

TeflonPenicillin

Serendipity

The accident of finding something useful or good

without looking for it — Steven Johnson

"In the fields of observation chance

favours only the prepared mind”

— Louis Pasteur

Impact of innovation

Impact of Innovation

The Forth Quadrant

The Forth Quadrant

1MARKET/INDIVIDUAL

2MARKET/NETWORK

4NON-MARKET/NETWORK

3NON-MARKET/INDIVIDUAL

Liquid network

The Slow Hunch

10/10 Rule

Serendipity

NEXTDiffusion of Innovation