LECTURE L06INNOVATION
Installation period Deployment Period
Institutional recomposition
Deg
ree
of te
chno
logi
cal m
atur
ity
and
mar
ket s
atur
atio
n
time
CrashTechnology Trigger Next big bang
Techno-economic split
IRRUPTION
Financial Bubble Time
FRENZY
Golden Age
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Source: Carlota Perez
INSTALLATIONPERIOD
TURNINGPOINT DEPLOYMENT
Age of Information 1971 Internet mania and
financial casino2000 & 2008
The Industrial Revolution 1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap
Age of Steam and Railways 1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom
Age of Steel and Electricity 1875 Infrastructure
bubbles 1890-95The Belle Époque (Europe)
Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil andAutomobile 1908 The Roaring
Twenties 1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age
The New Golden Age?
Source: Carlota Perez
Technological Revolution
Adjacent Possible
StevenJohnson
The inventor must use the components that exist in
his environment
Combinatory Process
New technology is created by combining other
existing technology in new ways
Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work, evolved from
simpler system that worked
The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is mastered, it will
“disappear” as something obvious and trivial, and
other more useful things that are built on top of it
The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things that should “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance
Complexity of Technology
Local and linear
Global and Exponential
Population
Population explotion 7 billion people
ProsperityGDP per person
Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex
TED Lecture
Slide from Matt Ridley’s 2010 TED talk
How does innovation happen?
Who invented…
TelephonePhonographCombustion enginePhotographic film
Alexander G. BellThomas EdisonKarl BenzGeorge Eastman
AC Motor Nikola TeslaSafety razor King Camp Gillette
The Brilliant Scientist working in his lab
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla
Nikola Tesla
Tomas Edison
“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.”
– Thomas Edison
How Does Innovation Really Happen?
Change in Technology
Innovation
Something newly introduced, such as a new method or device
Innovation
Innovation
DisruptiveSustaining Evolutionary Revolutionary
Innovation
Innovation
Sustaining Technology – Evolutionary
An innovation that improves a product in an existing market in ways that customers are expecting
Red Oceans — commodities
An innovation that creates a new market by allowing customers to solve a problem in a radically new way
May not be affordable enough to be disruptive
Innovation
Sustaining Technology – Revolutionary
FordModelT
Disruptive Technology
An innovation that creates a new (an unexpected) market by applying a different set of values.
Affordable so the impact is major
Innovation
How does innovation really happen?
"We take the ideas we've inherited or stumbled across, and we jigger them together
into some new shape." – Steven Johnson
The Coffee House
Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from
Where good ideas come from | Steven Johnson TED Lecture, 2010
The Medici Effect
Environment of the space Where people meet
Where ideas have sex
But innovation comes from people meeting up in the hallways or
calling each other at 10:30 at night with a new idea, or because they
realised something that shoots holes in how we've been thinking
about a problem. — Steve Jobs
The Liquid network
A good idea is a network. Innovations happens with
collaboration. — Steven Johnson
The Liquid network
Innovations happen when ideas are shared.
— Steven Johnson
The importance of cities
The Hummingbird Effect
Unexpected consequence of new innovations
The Hummingbird Effect
The Hummingbird Effect
SmartphonesDIY DronesiPad
Printed pressDIY DronesFilming effects, harvestingGames for 2-5 years olds
Spectacles
The Hummingbird Effect
The Eureka Moment!
Sir Isaac Newton
The Slow Hunch
A lot of ideas linger on, sometimes for decades,
in the back of people’s minds
— Steven Johnson
Source:http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/187881/Douglas-Engelbart
Douglas Englebart 1965 Apple Macintosh 1984
Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
The 10/10 Rule
Any technology that is going to have significant impact
over the next 10 years is already at least 10 years old
The 10/10 Rule
10 years to build a newplatform, 10 years for it
to be adopted
What do the following products have in common?
LSDPost-it notes Viagra
TeflonPenicillin
Serendipity
The accident of finding something useful or good
without looking for it — Steven Johnson
"In the fields of observation chance
favours only the prepared mind”
— Louis Pasteur
Impact of innovation
Impact of Innovation
The Forth Quadrant
The Forth Quadrant
1MARKET/INDIVIDUAL
2MARKET/NETWORK
4NON-MARKET/NETWORK
3NON-MARKET/INDIVIDUAL
Liquid network
The Slow Hunch
10/10 Rule
Serendipity
NEXTDiffusion of Innovation