L’accordo di Parigi e le sfide per la ricerca

Carlo Carraro

University of Venice and CMCC

Vice-Chair, IPCC WG III

Paris Agreement, article 2.1(a)

Holding the increase in the global average temperature

to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to

pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C

above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would

significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate

change;

Global emission pathways and 2°C carbon budgets

Kriegler et al. (2015) Climate Change Economics

5220-6250 GtCO2

3630-4970 GtCO2

1000-1570 GtCO2

670-1100 GtCO2

2.9-5.9°C

0%

2.4-4.7°C

0-4%

1.5-2.7°C

41-64%

1.4-2.4°C

59-76%

Cumulative CO2 emissions 2011-2100Warming since preindustrialProbability of staying below 2°C

2°C target requires early peaking of emissions (in 2020), small CO2 budgets,

and negative emissions starting in 2065

20652020

-15

20552015

The 1.5° Mitigation Challenge

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1.Efficiency2.Electrification3.Renewables4.Storage 5.CO2 removal

Technology

Emerging Energy Storage Technologies

Emerging Energy Storage Technologies

Negative Emission Technologies

Economics

Investment flows to achieve the 2°C target

Median values for power generation:

• 100 billion USD per year until 2030

• 400 billion USD per year between 2030 and 2050.(400 billion USD per year are equivalent to 0.5% of gross world product (GWP) in 2013. However, assuming a 2.5% growth rate from now to 2050, the incremental investments will be equal to just 0.2% of GWP in 2050)

Median values for energy efficiency:

• 600 billion USD per year in 2030

• 800 billion USD per year in 2050

Median value for energy R&D:

• 50 billion USD per year in 2030 (0.08% of global GDP in 2030 and to about 0.07% in 2050)

Source: IPCC AR5 - WG3 "The Mitigation of Climate Change", ch. 16, 2014

About 750 billion USD per year until 2030

How to fill the financing gap for energy transition?

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Carbon pricing

Reallocating portfolios towards low carbon energy by

replacing fossil fuel stocks with energy efficiency and

renewable energy investments. This requires positive

returns on climate related investments.

New financing vehicles: green bonds

Technological innovation (the costs of low-carbon

technologies continue to fall, thus increasing returns on

investments)

Uses of Climate Financing

• Renewable energy generation

• Energy efficiency in industry and buildings

• Sustainable transport

• AFOLU & livestock management

93% mitigation

• Water supply management

• Climate-resilient infrastructure

• Coastal protection

• Disaster risk reduction

• AFOLU & natural resource management

7% adaptation

Source: CPI and OECD

Other crucial research issues

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• Water, agriculture land use• Cryosphere, ocean, sea level rise• Sustainable cities• Climate change and health

Thank you!