Labor Market Information:
Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan
Michigan Department of Technology, Management & BudgetBureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives
What are some of the key current trends in the Michigan labor market?
What are likely to be some of the key future trends in the Michigan labor market?
For some of Michigan’s key sectors: What are the key factors driving current job demand in those
industries? What may be some of the factors impacting future job demand in
these sectors?
Key Factors Driving Job Demand
Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, part of the Department of Technology, Management and Budget
Responsible for producing and publishing information and analysis on the Michigan workforce and the state’s regions and counties
Most of our staff is located in Detroit, but a few economic analysts are situated in Lansing and other Michigan regions
Information on employment, unemployment, industry job trends, skill sets, occupations, wages, demographics of the labor pool, etc.
Who We Are…
Key Recent Labor Market Trendsin Michigan
Labor force decline may have bottomed out Michigan workforce levels fell for six consecutive years from 2007-2012 Workforce levels rose by 37,000 in 2013, the first increase since 2006
Michigan jobless rate dropped in 2013 for the fourth consecutive year, but remains above pre-recessionary level
Far fewer layoffs recently of persons with jobs, but job market remains competitive for the unemployed
Average duration of unemployment at a very high level; about 39 weeks
Jobless Rate Gap (Michigan vs. U.S.) Has Narrowed Since 2009
Michigan Rate Still Above 2008 Levels
Recent Trends in Jobs
Payroll jobs advanced in Michigan in 2013 for the third consecutive year
Michigan job gains over the last several years: Manufacturing Health care Technical services Temporary help services Restaurants Mortgage banking
Job losses primarily in government
Recent Trends in Job Openings
Michigan top occupations with online job vacancies: Registered nurses Truck drivers Retail sales workers and managers Industrial engineers Customer service representatives Mechanical engineers Computer systems analysts
Faster openings growth over year in services, transportation, installation & repair, health care support, and management occupations
Slow growth over year in clerical and sales job postings Diverse set of industry sectors posting jobs
Potential Future Trends in the Michigan Labor Market
Michigan population and labor force growth expected to be more modest than national average
Aging of the workforce will impact demand for goods and services, and produce job openings for replacement workers
Above average job growth expected for jobs requiring an associate’s, bachelor’s, or master’s degree
Continued “upskilling” of jobs expected in some sectors in terms of educational/training requirements
Additional educational attainment will continue to be associated with lower unemployment rates and higher wages
What Types of Questions on the Job Market Can be Addressed by Labor Market
Information?
What questions can this type of information help to address? What occupations have job openings now? What occupations have a positive long-term job outlook? Which Michigan industries are adding jobs? What are the key skill requirements and educational requirements for
specific occupations? What jobs exist that do not require physical strength, good visual ability,
or other specific requirements? What is the average or entry level local wage for a specific occupation? Who are the major employers in my area and how can I contact them? What are the future high-demand job sectors in Michigan?
A Common Myth Regarding Unemployment Statistics
Is it true that unemployment statistics only reflect persons receiving unemployment insurance??? No. This is not true
Unemployment estimates capture all persons meeting the definition of unemployment, including: Persons who have lost jobs or are on layoff Persons such as students seeking their first job Persons reentering the work force after a period of absence Persons who have exhausted UI benefits but are still seeking work Persons who voluntarily leave a job but are still seeking work
What About “Discouraged Workers”? Why Are They Not Counted as Unemployed?
“Discouraged workers” are persons who say they want a job but are not seeking work because they feel there are no jobs available or no employer will hire them Since they are not actively looking for work, they are not counted as
unemployed in the official unemployment rate The household survey allows for alternative calculations
Michigan’s jobless rate in 2013 was 8.6 percent If discouraged workers were included in the calculation, the Michigan 2013 rate
would have been 9.2 percent “If all marginally attached” workers were included, the rate would be 10.1
percent If persons working part-time who want full time work were added to the
marginally attached and the unemployed, the rate would be 15.3 percent.
How Many Jobs Has Michigan Recovered Since the Low Points of the Most Recent National Recession?
Michigan has regained 286,000 jobs since the low point reached in March 2010
Specific industry sectors and the Michigan job gains from recessionary low points include: Manufacturing: + 120,000 jobs (+27.2 percent) Professional & Business Services: + 115,000 jobs (+23.5 percent) Construction: +17,000 jobs (+14.5 percent) Retail: + 11,000 jobs (+2.4 percent)
Health Care managed to gain jobs throughout the recession, although job growth slowed Health care jobs 45,000 above pre-recession 2007 levels (+8.7 percent)
Michigan Manufacturing JobsLed Job Recovery Since Recession
617,300
572,000
463,100473,900
509,700
537,600
555,100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Manufacturing jobs in Michigan Cut in almost half from 1999 to 2009 Sector is top source of job growth over last year in Michigan economy
Recent job expansion primarily reflects strong rebound in domestic auto sales and auto production
Significant levels of investment in Michigan auto assembly operations
Job advances since 2009 reflect both recalls of laid off workers and new hires
Broad gains, with job growth rates of over 25 percent since 2009 in fabricated metals, plastics, primary metals, autos, and machinery manufacturing
ManufacturingRecent Factors Driving Job Demand
Michigan’s competitive advantage: Skilled labor supply in advanced manufacturing production and auto-related design and engineering
Productivity gains and automation will tend to limit long-term job expansion in manufacturing
Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of production work Michigan manufacturing success in export markets Labor supply issues
Production jobs increasingly require technical education and skill Young people will need to be attracted to production occupations to
replace an aging workforce
ManufacturingFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand
Michigan Professional & Technical Services Jobs
Jobs at Highest Level Since 2001
246,200243,900
220,900222,600
235,000
247,900
260,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sector is a key source of “knowledge jobs” for the Michigan economy; many high skill–high wage positions
Strong recent job additions in Engineering services, IT services, Research and development
Michigan highly ranked nationally in number and share of science and engineering jobs
Strong recovery of auto industry has promoted much of the recent job expansion in this sector
Increased jobs in business consulting and IT services have benefited by rebound in business investment after recession
Professional & Technical ServicesRecent Factors Driving Job Demand
Michigan’s competitive advantage: A very high current share of jobs in engineering services
Future concentration of white collar technical jobs related to the auto industry
Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of IT functions Technical jobs comprise an increased share of total jobs
across many industries, leading to overall job gains Technical services labor supply
Highly educated with most jobs requiring bachelor’s, associate’s degrees and above
Women are underrepresented in IT and engineering positions
Professional & Technical ServicesFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand
Michigan Health Care JobsRecord Job Levels in 2013
518,000
526,900530,100
534,500
548,200
559,000
563,400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Only sector in Michigan with continuous job expansion even through the recession
Strong job gains in doctor’s offices, hospitals, home health care, social services
Investment in health care technology has created jobs in Michigan
Several prestigious medical centers in Michigan attract patients and conduct medical research
The aging of the Michigan population has generated increased demand for health services
Health CareRecent Factors Driving Job Demand
Continued aging of the population – “Baby-boom” generation will be entirely 55+ by 2020
Health status of the population Emphasis on preventative care and home care could change
dynamics of job demand Continued pace of investment in health care technology Health care labor supply – will need to replace an aging
health care workforce Health care reform and the need for cost containment in
the overall health care system
Health CareFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand
DTMB Labor Market Information Website
(www.michigan.gov/lmi) Contains current monthly and
quarterly data on the Michigan and regional job markets
Economic data can be downloaded on a customized basis using Data Explorer tool
Many publications with information on regional workforce trends
Employment, unemployment, industries, occupations, forecasts, more
Interactive website to view information on key skills and knowledge for hundreds of occupations
Provides a means for comparing occupations on the relative importance and level of proficiency required in a number of skill and knowledge areas
The O*NET Work Context feature can be used to produce ranking lists for job seekers on a number of key characteristics.
www.onetonline.org
O*NET Online
Projections Data: Long-Term Demand
Produced for Michigan and 18 regions
Developed by DTMB and released in alternating years
Current forecast period 2010 to 2020 for Michigan and local forecast regions
Reflects long-term growth prospects
Can be used to identify occupations or
industries with above-average expected job growth; or to identify
occupations that generate high numbers of annual job openings.
Industry and Occupational Long-term Forecasts
The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online Data Series
Help Wanted Online . . . Measures new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from previous months from about 1,000 major Internet job sites and small job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.Follows the rigorous design standards used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other Federal statistical agencies.Fills a key data gap for real-time information on available job openings for MichiganMichigan LMI has purchased the HWOL micro-data to produce detailed information on online ads for substate regions within Michigan.
Statewide HWOL Report
This report is released monthly as new online job demand numbers are made available. It provides information on total online job ads, in-demand occupations, and other measures of labor markets, including the “ad rate” and the “supply demand rate.”
How We Use HWOL
Provide Quick Overviews of
Regional Labor Demand
•Regional Online Job Demand Profiles
•Real-Time Labor Demand Snapshots
Michigan Economic & Workforce Indicators
Michigan Economic & Workforce Indicators and Insights
Biannual report tracking Michigan labor market trends
Provides a concise analysis of recent trends in various economic indicators as well as national or regional comparisons
Michigan’s HOT 50 Jobs
Overview of In-Demand Careers in the state for students and job seekers
Combines information on job forecasts, wages, and educational/training requirements
Other Useful Websites
Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov
Census Bureau www.census.gov
American Community Surveywww.census.gov/acs/www
OnTheMaphttp://onthemap.ces.census.gov
Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov
Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan
For additional information:
Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives
Bruce WeaverManager of Labor Market [email protected]
Please visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmi
