LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2015-2016 · Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,...

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC

LAEDC Economic Forecast

& Industry Outlook 2015-2016

February 18, 2015

Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Economy

California Economy

Southern California Economy & Industries

Southern California 2015-16 Forecast


Outline

U.S. Economy


U.S. Economy – faster growth

Labor Market – full employment, wage gains

Oil Situation – tough on oil, good for economy

World Economy – mixed bag for U.S.

Federal Reserve – U.S. & global concerns


In Brief – U.S. Economy

U.S. Economic Growth

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, LAEDC Forecasts Kyser Center for Economic Research

3.3

2.7

1.8

-0.3

-2.8

2.5

1.6 2.3 2.2 2.4

3.0 3.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Annual % Change

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Ja

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0

Ja

n-9

1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Jan

-00

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Jan

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

U.S. Average 1990-Now

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 2015: 5.7%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Jan

-08

Apr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Apr-

10

Ju

l-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Apr-

11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Apr-

12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Apr-

13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Apr-

14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

MTM Job Changes 3 per. Mov. Avg. (MTM Job Changes)

MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

Key Sectors of Macroeconomy

Consumer Sector

Business Sector

Government

International Trade


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

U.S. Consumer Expenditures Up

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, LAEDC forecasts

Annual % Change


Household Income Below Peak

56.9 56.4

51.9

40

45

50

55

60

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

20

11

2012

2013

Median HH Income in Thousands of 2013 Dollars

Source: Census Bureau


-8%

6.3%

4.6%

8.0% 7.6%

5.6%

-1.9%

7.0%

4.4%

3.5%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Equipment Intellectual Property Structures

2014 2015 2016


Annual Percentage Change

Business Investment Spending Up

Source: IHS, LAEDC


Federal Budget Receipts & Outlays as

Percentage of GDP

Source: Office of Management and Budget

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f

Receipts Outlays

Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

FORECAST: U.S. Economy to Accelerate

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Real GDP - Annual %

Chg.2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0%

Nonfarm Jobs - Annual

% Chg.1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4%

Consumer Prices -

Annual % Chg. 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 2.3%

Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Forecast:

What to Watch

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual % Change in Hourly Wage Annual Inflation Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wage Gains vs. Inflation


Source: US Energy Information Administration Kyser Center for Economic Research

Crude Oil Prices 2005-Present

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan

-05

Ju

l-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

West TX Intermediate

Dollars/barrel


Fed ended Quantitative Easing (QE) in

October 2014

Fed to raise short term rates in second

half of 2015? It depends…

Concern about Fed getting ‘ahead of the

curve’ and ability to react to future events

Q: When Will Fed Raise Rates?


Key Interest Rates

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Ja

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1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Fed Funds Fixed Rate Mort 10-Year T-Bond

Source: Federal Reserve

Source: DJIA Kyser Center for Economic Research

Stock Market Volatility Up

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

2/3

/14

3/5

/14

4/4

/14

5/4

/14

6/3

/14

7/3

/14

8/2

/14

9/1

/14

10

/1/1

4

10

/31

/14

11/3

0/1

4

12

/30

/14

1/2

9/1

5

Daily DJIA

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2015 Update Kyser Center for Economic Research

Mixed Global Outlook

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Euro Area Japan Developing Asia

Latin America/Carb.

World

2014 2015f 2016f

Annual % Growth


California Economy

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Ja

n-0

7

Jan

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Jan

-15

US CA

California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S.

Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research

YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted

0%

5%

10%

15%

Ja

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0

Ja

n-9

1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Jan

-96

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Jan

-99

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Jan

-02

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Jan

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

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3

Ja

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4

U.S. CA

CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly

Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research

Unemployment Rate

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by California Metro Area

0.4%

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.2%

2.3%

2.4%

3.3%

3.8%

4.0%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Fresno MSA

Modesto

Bakersfield

LA

Riverside-San Bernardino

Ventura

Sacramento

Stockton MSA

Orange County

Oakland

San Diego

San Francisco

San Jose

Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted

CALIFORNIA – Dec 2014: +320,300 +2.1% YTY

Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

FORECAST: California Keeps Momentum

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Nonfarm Jobs -

annual % chg. 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

Unemployment Rate 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.7% 6.3%

Personal Income - annual

% chg.7.1% 2.8% 4.7% 4.4% 5.1%

Total Taxable Sales - %

chg. 7.3% 5.8% 5.7% 4.2% 6.1%

Housing Permits -

thousands of units57.6 82.3 85.3 110.0 135.6

Los Angeles County

& Southern California


• Economic Activity – broad gains, new highs

• Port Activity – 3rd highest in 2014, 2015?

• Motion Picture & Sound Recording – stronger

• Housing – potential for growth


In Brief - Southern California


Local Unemployment Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

LA - 8.2% OC - 5.3% IE - 8.5%

# of Major Industries and Industries: 169

Total Nonfarm Mining and Logging Construction Construction of Buildings Residential Building Construction Nonresidential Building Construction Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction Specialty Trade Contractors Building Foundation & Exterior Contractors Building Equipment Contractors Building Finishing Contractors Other Specialty Trade Contractors Manufacturing Durable Goods Primary Metal Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Machinery Manufacturing Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing Electronic Instrument Manufacturing Electrical Equipment & Appliance Manufacturing Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Aerospace Product & Parts Manufacturing Furniture & Related Product Manufacturing Household & Institutional Furniture Mfg Miscellaneous Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Food Manufacturing Dairy Product Manufacturing Animal Slaughtering & Processing Bakeries & Tortilla Manufacturing Beverage & Tobacco Product Mfg Textile Mills Apparel Manufacturing Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing Paper Manufacturing Printing & Related Support Activities Petroleum & Coal Products Manufacturing Chemical Manufacturing Pharmaceutical & Medicine Manufacturing Plastics & Rubber Products Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Motor Vehicle & Motor Vehicle Parts Merchant Professional & Commercial Equipment Merchant Electrical & Electronic Goods Merch Wholesalers Machinery, Equip & Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods Apparel, Piece Goods & Notions Merch Wholesalers Grocery & Related Products Merchant Wholesalers Misc Nondurable Merchant Wholesalers Wholesale Electronic Markets & Agents & Broker Retail Trade Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealer Automobile Dealers Other Motor Vehicle Dealers Automotive Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Building Material & Garden Equipment Stores Food & Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Gasoline Stations Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby & Musical Instrument Store Book, Periodical & Music Stores General Merchandise Stores Department Stores Other General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Utilities

Transportation & Warehousing Air Transportation Truck Transportation Transit & Ground Passenger Transportation Support Activities for Transportation Couriers & Messengers Warehousing & Storage Information Publishing Industries (except Internet) Newspaper, Periodical, Book & Directory Publishers Motion Picture & Sound Recording Broadcasting (except Internet) Radio & Television Broadcasting Cable & Other Subscription Programming Telecommunications Data Processing, Hosting & Related Services Finance & Insurance Credit Intermediation & Related Activities Depository Credit Intermediation Nondepository Credit Intermediation Activities Related to Credit Intermediation Securities, Commodity Contracts & Investments Insurance Carriers & Related Insurance Carriers Agencies, Broker, & Other Insurance Related Act Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Real Estate Lessors of Real Estate Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers Activities Related to Real Estate Real Estate and Rental and Leasing - Residual Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Legal Services Accounting, Tax Preparation & Bookkeeping Services Architectural, Engineering & Related Services Computer Systems Design & Related Services Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting Serv Scientific Research & Development Services Advertising & Related Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Administrative & Support & Waste Services Administrative & Support Services Employment Services Business Support Services Travel Arrangement & Reservation Services Investigation & Security Services Services to Buildings & Dwellings Educational Services Elementary & Secondary Schools Junior Colleges Colleges, Universities & Professional Schools Health Care & Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Offices of Physicians Offices of Dentists Offices of Other Health Practitioners Hospitals Nursing & Residential Care Facilities Nursing Care Facilities Social Assistance Individual & Family Services Child Day Care Services Leisure & Hospitality Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Performing Arts, Spectator Sports Independent Artists, Writers & Performers Museums, Historical Sites & Similar Institutions Amusement, Gambling & Recreation Gambling Industries Other Amusement & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Eating Places Special Food Services Other Services Repair & Maintenance Personal & Laundry Services Religious, Grants, Civic, Professional & Like Org Government Federal Government Department of Defense Federal Government excluding Department of Defense State & Local Government State Government State Government Education State Government Excluding Education Local Government Local Government Education Local Government Excluding Education County City Special Districts plus Indian Tribes


# of Detailed Industries: 2,059

Oil and Gas Extraction Oil and Gas Extraction Oil and Gas Extraction Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Extraction Natural Gas Liquid Extraction Mining (except Oil and Gas) Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying Stone Mining and Quarrying Dimension Stone Mining and Quarrying Other Crushed Stone Mining and Quarrying Sand, Clay, & Refractory Mineral Mining Construction Sand and Gravel Mining Other Nonmetallic Mineral Mining Potash, Soda, and Borate Mineral Mining All Other Nonmetallic Mineral Mining Support Activities for Mining Support Activities for Mining Support Activities for Mining Drilling Oil and Gas Wells Support Activities, Oil/Gas Operations Support Activities for Coal Mining Support Activities for Metal Mining Construction Construction of Buildings Residential Building Construction Residential Building Construction New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders) New Multifamily Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders) New Housing For-Sale Builders Residential Remodelers Nonresidential Building Construction Industrial Building Construction Industrial Building Construction Commercial Building Construction Commercial Building Construction Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Utility System Construction Water and Sewer System Construction Water and Sewer System Construction Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction Power/Communication System Construction Power/Communication System Construction Land Subdivision Land Subdivision Land Subdivision Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction Other Heavy Construction Other Heavy Construction Other Heavy Construction Specialty Trade Contractors Building Foundation/Exterior Contractors Poured Concrete Structure Contractors Residential Poured Foundation Contractor Nonresidential Poured Foundation Contrs Steel and Precast Concrete Contractors Residential Structural Steel Contractors Nonresidential Structural Steel Contrs Framing Contractors Residential Framing Contractors Nonresidential Framing Contractors Masonry Contractors Residential Masonry Contractors Nonresidential Masonry Contractors Glass and Glazing Contractors Residential Glass/Glazing Contractors Nonresidential Glass/Glazing Contractors Roofing Contractors Residential Roofing Contractors Nonresidential Roofing Contractors Siding Contractors Residential Siding Contractors Nonresidential Siding Contractors Other Building Exterior Contractors Other Residential Exterior Contractors Other Nonresidential Exterior Contrs Building Equipment Contractors Electrical Contractors Residential Electrical Contractors Nonresidential Electrical Contractors Plumbing and HVAC Contractors Residential Plumbing/HVAC Contractors Nonresidential Plumbing/HVAC Contractors Other Building Equipment Contractors Other Residential Equipment Contractors Other Nonresidential Equipment Contrs Building Finishing Contractors Drywall and Insulation Contractors Residential Drywall Contractors Nonresidential Drywall

Contractors Painting and Wall Covering Contractors Residential Painting Contractors Nonresidential Painting Contractors Flooring Contractors Residential Flooring Contractors Nonresidential Flooring Contractors Tile and Terrazzo Contractors Residential Tile/Terrazzo Contractors Nonresidential Tile/Terrazzo Contractors Finish Carpentry Contractors Residential Finish Carpentry Contractors Nonresidential Finish Carpentry Contrs Other Building Finishing Contractors Other Residential Finishing Contractors Other Nonresidential Finishing Contrs Other Specialty Trade Contractors Site Preparation Contractors Residential Site Preparation Contractors Nonresidential Site Preparation Contrs All Other Specialty Trade Contractors All Other Residential Trade Constractors All Other Nonresidential Trade Contrs Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Animal Food Manufacturing Animal Food Manufacturing Dog and Cat Food Manufacturing Other Animal Food Manufacturing Grain and Oilseed Milling Flour Milling and Malt Manufacturing Flour Milling Rice Milling Starch and Vegetable Oil Manufacturing Soybean and Other Oilseed Processing Fats and Oils Refining and Blending Breakfast Cereal Manufacturing Breakfast Cereal Manufacturing Sugar/Confectionery Product Manufacture Nonchocolate Confectionery Manufacturing Nonchocolate Confectionery Manufacturing Chocolate and Confectionery Manufacturing from Cacao Beans Confectionery Manufacturing from Purchased Chocolate Fruit, Vegetable, & Specialty Foods Mfg Frozen Food Manufacturing Frozen Fruit and Vegetable Manufacturing Frozen Specialty Food Manufacturing Fruit and Vegetable Canning Fruit and Vegetable Canning Specialty Canning Dried and Dehydrated Food Manufacturing Dairy Product Manufacturing Dairy Product (ex. Frozen) Manufacturing Fluid Milk Manufacturing Creamery Butter Manufacturing Cheese Manufacturing Dry, Condensed, Evaporated Dairy Product Ice Cream & Frozen Dessert Manufacturing Ice Cream & Frozen Dessert Manufacturing Animal Slaughtering and Processing Animal Slaughtering and Processing Animal (except Poultry) Slaughtering Meat Processed from Carcasses Rendering and Meat Byproduct Processing Poultry Processing Seafood Product Preparation & Packaging Seafood Product Preparation & Packaging Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing Bread and Bakery Product Manufacturing Retail Bakeries Commercial Bakeries Frozen Pastry Manufacturing Cookie, Cracker, and Pasta Manufacturing Cookie and Cracker Manufacturing Dry Pasta, Dough, and Flour Mixes Manufacturing from Purchased Flour Tortilla Manufacturing Tortilla Manufacturing Other Food Manufacturing Snack Food Manufacturing Roasted Nuts and Peanut Butter Mfg Other Snack Food Manufacturing Coffee and Tea Manufacturing Coffee and Tea Manufacturing Flavoring Syrup and Concentrate Mfg Flavoring Syrup and Concentrate Mfg Seasoning and Dressing Manufacturing Mayonnaise, Dressing, and Sauce Mfg Spice and Extract Manufacturing All Other Food Manufacturing Perishable Prepared Food Manufacturing All Other Miscellaneous Food Mfg Beverage & Tobacco Product Manufacturing Beverage Manufacturing Soft Drink and Ice Manufacturing Soft Drink Manufacturing Bottled Water Manufacturing Ice Manufacturing Breweries Breweries Wineries Wineries Distilleries Distilleries Tobacco Manufacturing Tobacco Manufacturing Textile Mills Fiber, Yarn, and Thread Mills Fiber, Yarn, and Thread Mills


Major Industries in Southern California

TRADED INDUSTRIES

(Generate New Income)

• International Trade

• Entertainment

• Business Services

• Aerospace

• Fashion & Apparel

• Tourism

• Knowledge Creation

LOCAL INDUSTRIES

(Circulate Income)

• Retail Sales

• Leisure & Hospitality

• Health Care/Social Assistance


Millions of TEUs

Container Throughput

San Pedro Bay Ports

Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

Dec 2014 YTD: +3.8%

11.8 13.1

14.2

15.8 15.7 14.3

11.8

14.1 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.2

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Los Angeles Orange


Southern California Transportation and

Warehousing Employment Thousands Dec 2014 YTY: +4.7%

YTD: +3.3%

Motion Picture & Sound Recording

Employment in Los Angeles County

Sources: CA EDD. LMID

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thousands


2014: 130,900, +6.8% YTY

Shoot Days: +9.6% YTY


Southern California Professional &

Business Services Employment

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Thousands

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Dec 2014 YTY: +3.5% YTD: +5.5%



SoCal Manufacturing Employment

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

20

01

20

02

2003

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

2014

Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Dec. 2014 YTD % Chg

Durable: -0.8% Nondurable: -3.8%

Manufacturing Trends

Adding Jobs:

Machinery Mfg

Furniture

Miscellaneous

Durable Goods

Losing Jobs:

Petro-Chemical

Food

Aerospace

Electronics

Pharmaceuticals

Apparel/Textiles


Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Economics Kyser Center for Economic Research

Value of Manufacturing Output –

California

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Billions of Inflation Adjusted Dollars (2009 Base Year)

Southern California

Leisure & Hospitality Employment

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2003

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire

San Diego County Ventura County

Thousands Dec 2014 YTY: +2.6%

YTD: +2.8%



Southern California Retail Employment


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire

San Diego Ventura

Thousands Dec 2014 YTY: +1.2% YTD: +3.9%


Southern California Education &

Health Care Employment


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

Los Angeles Orange

Inland Empire San Diego

Ventura

Thousands Dec 2014 YTY: +3.8%

YTD: +3.5%

Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California

Real Estate

Source: Dataquick/DQ News Kyser Center for Economic Research

Median Home Prices

County Dec-13 Dec-14

YTY %

Change

Los Angeles $430,000 $460,000 7.0%

Orange County $570,000 $591,000 3.7%

San Bernardino $280,000 $300,000 7.1%

Riverside County $232,000 $255,000 9.9%

Ventura $449,500 $477,250 6.2%

San Diego $420,000 $440,000 4.8%

Residential Building Permits

Issued in Los Angeles County

10 12 12 10 8

3 2 2 2 4 4 4 5

11

15 14 16

13

10

3 5

8 9

13 14 16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f

Multi-Family

Single-Family

Permits issued, thousands

Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, Preliminary Forecast LAEDC (1/27/15) Kyser Center for Economic Research


Southern California Construction

Employment

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

2014Y

TD

Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura Thousands

Dec 2014 YTY: +2.8% YTD: +7.8%


Apartment Rents – Southern California

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

05Q

1

06Q

1

07Q

1

08Q

1

09Q

1

10Q

1

11Q

1

12

Q1

13Q

1

14Q

1

Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura

Source: CA Real Estate Research Council

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1q

09

1q

10

1q

11

1q

12

1q

13

1q

14

Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura


Industrial Vacancy Rates –

Southern California Percent vacant, quarterly averages

Source: Cushman and Wakefield

2.0

6.0

10.0

14.0

18.0

22.0

26.0

30.0

1q

09

1q

10

1q

11

1q

12

1q

13

1q

14


Source: Cushman and Wakefield Kyser Center for Economic Research

Office Vacancy Rates –

Southern California Percent vacancy, quarterly averages

2015 -2016

Southern Ca l i fo rn ia

Forecas t


1.9% 2.0%

2.6%

1.7%

1.9% 1.8%

2.8%

1.8% 1.7%

1.8%

2.5%

1.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Los Angeles County

Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County

2014 2015 2016


Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs

Southern California Outlook - Jobs

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC


Ran

k


1 Construction Construction Construction Construction

2 Mgmt of Ent'ps Information Information Prof, Sci, Tech

3 Admin Support Prof, Sci, Tech Health Care Admin Support

4 Prof, Sci, Tech Health Care Education Mgmt of Ent'ps

5 Education Mgmt of Ent'ps Prof, Sci, Tech Information

2015 Top Five Industries

by Percentage Gains in Employment


4.7% 4.7% 5.0%

4.4% 4.6% 4.8%

5.0% 4.6%

5.0%

5.6% 5.8%

5.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Los Angeles County

Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County

2014 2015 2016


Annual Percent Change

Southern California Outlook –

Personal Income

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

LAEDC Economic Forecast

& Industry Outlook 2015-2016

THANK YOU!

Date post:	21-Jul-2018
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LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2015-2016 · Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,...

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