Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

László TÓTH,László TÓTH,

HungaryHungary

Bay Zoltán Institute for Bay Zoltán Institute for Logistics and Production Logistics and Production

SystemsSystems

11stst Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsEngineering Plants and Components

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

11 of April11 of April

• 1241 1241 Batu khan won against IV. Béla at MuhiBatu khan won against IV. Béla at Muhi

• 18911891 Sergey Prokofjev was born Sergey Prokofjev was born

• 19001900 Sándor Márai was born Sándor Márai was born

• 1905 1905 Attila József was bornAttila József was born

• 1945 1945 caretaker government of Hungary movecaretaker government of Hungary movedd to to

Budapest from DebrecenBudapest from Debrecen

• 19851985 Ever Hodzsa Ever Hodzsa wwas diedas died

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

12 of April12 of April

• 1861 1861 The The american american civil war has been startedcivil war has been started

• 19381938 Fjodor Saljapin was died Fjodor Saljapin was died

• 19451945 F.D. Roosevelt was died F.D. Roosevelt was died

• 1961 1961 J.A. Gagarin passed the first space flightJ.A. Gagarin passed the first space flight

• 1971 1971 Igor Evenevicsh Tamm physicist was died, Igor Evenevicsh Tamm physicist was died, who hawho hadd received t received thhe Nobel-price (in 1958) e Nobel-price (in 1958)

• 19811981 The first take off of the Columbia space The first take off of the Columbia space shuttleshuttle

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Space flighSpace fligh: : 12. April, 1961

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Paul GAUGIN, 1897 (Boston, Museum of Fine Arts, 141x376 cm)

Where We come from? What We Are? Where we are going?

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

The Basic Words in The Basic Words in Technical-Economical Life Technical-Economical Life

Safety Safety

ReliabilityReliability

RiskRisk

CostsCosts

Level of

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Nu

mb

er o

f N

PP

-s

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48

Years

Designed in 80’s Designed in 70’s

Designed in 50-60’s years

31. December, 2005

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Reliability conceptReliability concept

At a given technical level !!

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Event based

approach

Time based

approach

Condi-tion

basedapproach

Relia-bilitybased

approach

Riskbased

approach

1950 1960 1980 1990 1995

STRATEGYSTRATEGY

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mill

ion

oper

atio

n/se

cond

s

1978 1982 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

RISKRISK=probability of failure

xconsequences

DEFINITION of the System

Determination of theDanger

Consequences Probabiltyp

rob

ab

ility

consequences

RISK

DECISION

TO DO something

To do nothing

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Goal… critical componentsGoal… critical components• Manage risk =

– define it– identify it– quantify it– rank it– control it– minimize it– …

0102030405060708090

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100

% of components

% o

f to

tal

risk

~20% of components yielding ~80% of total risk

~80% of all components yielding ~20% of total risk

… HOW to do itpractically?!?

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

The driving forces of developmentThe driving forces of development

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Kvantum technology

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Chernobyl, 26. April 1986. 1323

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Partners, GuestPartners, Guest

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Paton’s FamilyPaton’s Family

1918. November 27.

1870. március 5. –1953. július 12.

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Bay Zoltán (1900 - 1992)

• He measured the distance between the earth and moon using micro-wave technology (06.02.1946.) (Radar astronomy).

• Definition of the unit of the distance, meter (1965-1983)

Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006

Thank you for your kind attention!

Tlaszlo@bzlogi.hu

30-9-322-690