+ All Categories
Home > Documents > LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2...

LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2...

Date post: 04-Aug-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 1 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
5
IN THIS ISSUE p2 Q2 2015 market update p3 Q2 2015 buy-in price monitoring p4 LCP jargon buster: PPF-plus buy-out In this edition we look at: Record volumes of buy-ins and buy-outs in the second quarter 2015 A snapshot of current pension buy-in pricing to help inform decisions on when to approach the market LCP jargon buster: what is a PPF-plus buy-out and when does it make sense? LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 2015 2015 on track to reach “new normal” of £10bn of buy-ins and buy-outs Welcome to LCP’s review of the latest developments in the buy-in, buy-out and longevity swap market De-risking Seminar 20 OCTOBER 2015 Volume of buy-ins and buy-outs from 2007 to H1 2015 Source: Insurance company data 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 £ billion H1 H2 This half day session is designed for trustees and corporate representatives from UK defined benefit pension schemes (£500m+ of liabilities). It will provide insight into how the supply of longevity insurance and attractive assets impact on your decision when and how to tackle risk. What we will cover? De-risking strategy Longevity risk removal: the perspective of a global reinsurer Asset sourcing: views from our panel of experts, specialising in sourcing long- dated, low risk assets Introducing our new longevity risk tool Register on the LCP events page
Transcript
Page 1: LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2 Volumes for buy-ins and buy-outs hit a Q2 record level - the highest for a second

IN THIS ISSUE

p2 Q2 2015 market update

p3 Q2 2015 buy-in price monitoring

p4 LCP jargon buster: PPF-plus

buy-out

In this edition we look at:

� Record volumes of buy-ins and buy-outs in the second

quarter 2015

� A snapshot of current pension buy-in pricing to help inform

decisions on when to approach the market

� LCP jargon buster: what is a PPF-plus buy-out and when does

it make sense?

LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 2015

2015 on track to reach “new normal” of £10bn of buy-ins and buy-outs

Welcome to LCP’s review of the latest developments in the buy-in, buy-out and longevity swap market

De-risking Seminar20 OCTOBER 2015

Volume of buy-ins and buy-outs from 2007 to H1 2015

Source: Insurance company data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

£ b

illio

n

H1 H2

This half day session is designed for trustees

and corporate representatives from UK

defined benefit pension schemes (£500m+

of liabilities). It will provide insight into

how the supply of longevity insurance and

attractive assets impact on your decision

when and how to tackle risk.

What we will cover?

� De-risking strategy

� Longevity risk removal: the perspective of

a global reinsurer

� Asset sourcing: views from our panel of

experts, specialising in sourcing long-

dated, low risk assets

� Introducing our new longevity risk tool

Register on the LCP events page

Page 2: LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2 Volumes for buy-ins and buy-outs hit a Q2 record level - the highest for a second

LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2

Volumes for buy-ins and buy-outs hit a Q2 record

level - the highest for a second quarter at £3.6

billion. This marks a significant boost in transactions

following a steady first quarter, taking the total for

the half year to £4.4bn.

The volumes were driven by seven mid-sized

transactions (between £300m and £700m) totalling

£3.7bn over the half year. This is in contrast to the

first half of 2014 which was dominated by two multi-

billion transactions: the £3.6bn buy-in by ICI Pension

Fund and the £1.6bn buy-in by Total’s pension plan.

The largest transaction over the first half of 2015

was a £680m buy-in by the Northern Bank Pension

Scheme with Prudential in April. This made

Prudential the market leader over Q2 2015 writing

£1.2bn of business.

With a flurry of further activity in July, volumes for

2015 have now reached nearly £6bn and are on track

to reach £10bn for the year – a level of activity that

LCP anticipated would be the ‘new normal’ at the end

of 2014.

Transactions in July included a £1.6bn buy-in by

Rothesay Life with the Civil Aviation Authority

Pension Scheme, the largest buy-in or buy-out of

2015 to date. July also saw the largest longevity

swap of the year at £2.8bn by the AXA UK Pension

Scheme with the reinsurer RGA.

LCP has continued our success of helping clients

complete attractive buy-ins and buy-outs into 2015,

being lead adviser on five out of the seven buy-ins

and buy-outs over £100m in the first half of 2015.

Buy-in/ buy-out premiums (£m)

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

H1

2015

H1

2014

Aviva 2 405 407 263

Canada Life2 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Just Retirement 93 161 254 87

Legal & General 644 501 1,146 3,133

Partnership 24 44 68 37

PIC 40 640 681 1,807

Prudential 0 1,174 1,174 1,030

Rothesay Life 0 6751 675 581

Scottish Widows2 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Total 804 3,600 4,405 6,938

Source: Insurance company data. Note numbers may not total due

to rounding.

1Excludes the £1.3bn transfer of annuities from Zurich to Rothesay Life.

2Canada Life and Scottish Widows have entered the bulk annuity

market in the second half of 2015 so have no business in 2015 H1.

Longevity swaps in 2015 (£m)

Pension

schemeIntermediary Q1 Q2 Q3 Total

Scottish

Power

Abbey Life (Deutsche

Bank)2,000 - - 2,000

MNOPFMNOPF IC Ltd

(captive insurer)

1,500 1,500

AXA UK No third party intermediary

- - 2,800 2,800

Total 3,500 - 2,800 6,300

Source: Publically announced transactions to end of August 2015.

Boost for buy-ins and buy-outs in the second quarter of 2015

Further details of previous years can be found in

LCP’s report “Buy-ins, buy-outs and longevity swaps

2014” available here.

Page 3: LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2 Volumes for buy-ins and buy-outs hit a Q2 record level - the highest for a second

3LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015

Insurer consolidation and new entrants drive buy-in and buy-out pricing

Mergers bring additional capacity

Recent months have seen consolidation in the

insurance sector, with Aviva and Friends Life

completing a merger in April and Just Retirement

and Partnership announcing a merger in August.

Both anticipate that the mergers will strengthen

capital positions under Solvency II giving greater

capacity to write buy-ins and buy-outs next year.

Medical underwriting

Pricing for smaller pensioner buy-ins has continued

to be favourable over 2015 due to fierce competition

for “medically underwritten” processes. There

is a real risk that competition could ease in 2016

following the merger of Just Retirement and

Partnership. However, the combined medical

expertise may allow more favourable pricing in some

instances than either insurer can currently offer one

a stand-alone basis.

New entrants into the market

Canada Life is the latest insurer to confirm its

entry to the market. This follows Scottish Widows’

announcement earlier this year. Neither insurer

has yet completed any transactions, but they will

provide welcome extra competition and capacity

next year to offset some of the pricing pressure

from upward demand.

Solvency II to push up pricing in 2016?

From 1 January 2016 insurers will need to fully

comply with Solvency II (business this year benefits

from transitional protections). Insurers will not

receive final approvals for their models until

December 2015 but the latest indications are that

there will be little impact for pensioner pricing but

some insurers may see a price tick-up for non-

pensioners – perhaps up to 3%. We expect this will

diminish over time as insurers optimise their capital

models and asset strategies for Solvency II.

LCP Visualise’s online insurer price tracker is based on direct

pricing feeds from key insurers in the market. For a typical

scheme the pricing range remains close to a “gilts-flat” valuation.

LCP Visualise helps pension plan

trustees and sponsors identify when

to approach the market, based on a

range of indicative insurer pricing.

To access visit: lcpvisualise.com

Page 4: LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2 Volumes for buy-ins and buy-outs hit a Q2 record level - the highest for a second

LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 4

LCP Jargon Buster

When might Trustees compromise a section 75 debt and seek to insure higher than Pension Protection Fund (PPF) benefits with an insurer?

In July, MIRA completed a “PPF-plus” buy-out allowing

the company to continue without the scheme, which

was transferred to an insurer. Such transactions remain

rare (Uniq undertook a similar transaction in 2010)

but can make sense where the sponsor’s underlying

business has value but is severely constrained by the

pension scheme.

What differentiates a PPF-plus buy-out?A PPF-plus buy-out ensures members are better off

than if the scheme had entered the PPF. The benefits

secured with the insurer are lower than full scheme

benefits that members are entitled to, but higher

than those provided by the PPF (ie “PPF-plus”). For

a solvent employer this means that the Trustee is

compromising the full section 75 debt payable to the

scheme by accepting less than full scheme benefits.

If the circumstances support this approach, a PPF-plus

buy-out can be done pre-emptively to remove pension

liabilities at a cost that is lower than the full buy-out

debt, as demonstrated by the recent MIRA transaction.

Why consider a PPF-plus buy-out whilst the sponsor is solvent?A PPF-plus buy-out can be worth considering where a

sponsor’s business is viable but is severely constrained

by the pension scheme. If the most likely outcome is

eventual sponsor insolvency with the scheme entering

the PPF then it is in the scheme’s best interests to

maximise the value that can be realised from the

sponsor.

If the sponsor could secure new investment in the

absence of the pension scheme liabilities then a one-off

negotiated settlement may deliver a better outcome for

members than the status quo.

This typically involves a restructuring of the sponsor

allowing a one-off cash injection to be made to the

scheme in exchange for discharging the sponsor from

further pension obligations.

This could be sufficient to secure benefits above PPF

compensation providing a better outcome than the

scheme entering the PPF. The Pensions Regulator

would typically need to approve the terms of the

agreed arrangement.

This approach was adopted by the MIRA scheme,

providing certainty for members and was considered

to be the best outcome that was realistically achievable

given the size of the pension obligations relative to the

business.

When does a PPF-plus buy-out make sense?

� Where deficit contributions are potentially

unaffordable for the sponsor.

� Where the pension scheme is preventing the

company from raising investment or capital.

� Where eventual insolvency appears otherwise

inevitable.

Such schemes can choose to wait for the position to

improve but this may not be the best outcome for

members. Finding an early solution may unlock more

value for members in the long-term.

What is a PPF-plus buy-out and when does it make sense?

How LCP can help

LCP has been appointed to some of the most high profile PPF-plus buy-outs including those by MIRA and Uniq.

For schemes in similarly difficult circumstances, we can help identify appropriate solutions.

To find out more please call us on +44 (0)20 7432 6644.

Page 5: LCP PENSION DE-RISKING QUARTERLY UPDATE Q3 ......LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update Q3 2015 2 Volumes for buy-ins and buy-outs hit a Q2 record level - the highest for a second

All rights to this document are reserved to Lane Clark & Peacock LLP (“LCP”). This document may be reproduced in whole or in part, provided prominent acknowledgement of the source is given.

We accept no liability to anyone to whom this document has been provided (with or without our consent). Lane Clark & Peacock LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and

Wales with registered number OC301436. LCP is a registered trademark in the UK (Regd. TM No 2315442) and in the EU (Regd. TM No 002935583). All partners are members of Lane Clark &

Peacock LLP. A list of members’ names is available for inspection at 95 Wigmore Street, London W1U 1DQ, the firm’s principal place of business and registered office. The firm is regulated by the

Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in respect of a range of investment business activities. The firm is not authorised under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 but we are able in certain

circumstances to offer a limited range of investment services to clients because we are licensed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. We can provide these investment services if they are an

incidental part of the professional services we have been engaged to provide. Lane Clark & Peacock UAE operates under legal name “Lane Clark & Peacock Belgium – Abu Dhabi, Foreign Branch of

Belgium”. © Lane Clark & Peacock LLP 2015.

Lane Clark & Peacock LLP

London, UK

Tel: +44 (0)20 7439 2266

[email protected]

Lane Clark & Peacock LLP

Winchester, UK

Tel: +44 (0)1962 870060

[email protected]

Lane Clark & Peacock Belgium CVBA

Brussels, Belgium

Tel: +32 (0)2 761 45 45

[email protected]

Lane Clark & Peacock Ireland Limited

Dublin, Ireland

Tel: +353 (0)1 614 43 93

[email protected]

Lane Clark & Peacock UAE

Abu Dhabi, UAE

Tel: +971 (0)2 658 7671

[email protected]

Lane Clark & Peacock Netherlands B.V.

Utrecht, Netherlands

Tel: +31 (0)30 256 76 30

[email protected]

LCP is a firm of financial, actuarial and business consultants, specialising in the areas of pensions, investment,

insurance and business analytics.

The LCP Pensions de-risking quarterly update is based on our current understanding of the subject matter and relevant legislation which

may change in the future. Such changes cannot be foreseen. This document is prepared as a general guide only and should not be taken

as an authoritative statement of the subject matter. No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as

a result of any material in this Update can be accepted by LCP.

Stay Informed View a full list of our de-risking services at www.lcp.uk.com/derisking Get the latest updates from LCP via Twitter. Use hashtag #lcpbuyout and join the conversation.

Clive Wellsteed

Partner & Head of [email protected]

LCP led over 50% of large buy-ins and buy-outs that completed in 2014*Want to know why?Contact us to discuss the work we have been doing and

how we can help you identify opportunities for your

pension scheme.

WINNER

@LCP_Actuaries

*LCP was lead adviser on 12 of the 21 buy-ins and buy-outs over £100m in 2014

+44 (0)20 7432 6644

Charlie Finch

[email protected]

Myles [email protected]


Recommended