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Lecture 9:REGIONAL CONNECTIVITIES -

TURKEY, IRAN, AND THE NEW GREAT GAME

Topics: -

1. A New Great Game in Eurasia?

2. Turkey Looks West - and East and North

3. Iran: from Radical Ideology to Pragmatism to Isolation

4. Signs of Regional Cooperation and Conflict

5. Prospects: Beyond Vacuum and Dual Containment?

6. Bibliography and Further Resources1. A New Great Game in Eurasia?

Several writers have commented on the possibility of a new Great Game in Central Asiaonce the Soviet Union dissolved into a Russian Federation and the Newly IndependentStates of Central Asia and the Transcaucasus region (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan).The old Great Game, of course, was the 19th century contest between Britain and Russiafor influence in Central Asia, with 'lesser' players including the Ottoman Empire, Persia,Tibet, Japan, Afghanistan, Mongolia and China. As we have seen in previous lectures,

this 19th century Great Game had serious outcomes for Tibet, Afghanistan, and set thescene for the war between Japan and Russian in 1904-5, thereby shaping later conflictand diplomacy.

Today, some writers have proposed a new great game for influence and powerin theregion being played out by Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia andChina. From late 2001, with the strong intervention of the U.S. and the EU intoAfghanistan, the potential players in the game and their relative balance has changed.From this perspective, the new states of the region will be forced to align themselves,economically, politically and militarily in an environment largely established by thecontest of these various powers. From this perspective, it is no longer true to speak a

power 'vacuum' (for the older formulation, see Cuthbertson 1994, pp31-2) that had beencreated by the withdrawal of the dominant Soviet power. Some argue that this gap will befilled by other powers, including the spectre of a resurgent and militant Islam (forlimitations in this view of Islam in Central Asia, see Lecture 9).Strategic resources,especially oil and gas reserves in Central Asia and Siberia (Paik & Choi 1997), arecentral components in this international competition (for some limitations to this view,see Jaffe & Manning 1998; Kemp 1998).

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This metaphor of a 'great game' is sometimes used as a way to view the conflict inmodern Afghanistan (Klass 1987), as well as a new phase of diplomatic and economicinitiatives concerning Central Asia which have been launched since 1989 (Gardiner-Garden 1995a, p2; Malik 1992). Ian Cuthbertson, in particular, has stressed negativethreat perceptions to argue that a new great game is indeed afoot, with the Russians and

the Chinese as the main protagonists in a potentially destructive course (Cuthberston1994), though this view will need to be modified in the light of Sino-Russian accords in1996. Although there were perceptions of an 'ex-cold war warrior' in Cuthberston'sanalysis, he is correct to suggest that the US and Europe need to play a constructive gamein the region, rather than passively let events unfold (Cuthbertson 1994, p42-3), a factstrongly demonstrated with the current effort to stabilise Afghanistan through 2001-2002.One of the clearest statements of this 'great game' scenario has been provided my MohanMalik, who argues that serious instability in Central Asia could lead to new regional wars(Malik 1992a; 1992b). Other have suggested that at present Russia, China and Iran, havemedium and long term converging interests in cooperating to balance influence in Eurasiaand in promoting a multipolar world system (Ahrari 2001).

However, several new factors must be noted which modify this perception. The first ofthese is thatRussia, through the Commonwealth of Independent States and throughmilitary agreements concerning the borders of the old Soviet Union, has established aspecial concern with the near abroad, which means that there is at best only a partial'vacuum' in Central Asia. As a result, prolonged civil wars have only occurred inTajikistan, in the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, and within theRussian Federation concerning the independence of Chechnya. Second, after the eventsof September 2001, the United States has moved to strongly intervene in Afghanistan,has strong cooperative agreements with Russia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and motrecently Georgia, and has moved to apply renewed pressure on Iran and more especiallyIraq. This has been followed by strong military cooperation from Britain and France, anda strong diplomatic and economic role for Germany, the EU, and Japan in relation to thefuture stability of Afghanistan (see lecture 4). In general terms, the Russian involvementis part of its long held regional-security posture, while the action of the U.S. fits in withmodels of superpower intervention being drawn in by regional threats from smallerforces.

As we shall see, regional relationships in central Eurasia are complex, still in a process ofchange, and are set within the context of wider regional and global concerns. Regionalplayers with considerable impact on Central Asia include Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran,Pakistan, China, India and the European Union. This lecture we will focus on the wayTurkey and Iran position themselves within the region.

Turkey and Iran represent, in regional terms, two of the most populous nations, both ofwhom have had a longstanding cultural contact with Central Asia, and who havemedium-level military and economic potentials. Turkey has a population of 64 million,Iran of approximately 64 million also. As we shall see, Turkey's interests in the region areconditioned by its membership in NATO, and its desire for closer economic ties with theEU, while Iran, due to its relative isolation since 1979, has had to try to deepen

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relationships with China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, as well as trade ties withJapan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Germany. This isolation has been partly broken downby the more pragmatic approach by dominant government elements in Tehran since themid 1980s, under former President Rafsanjani and even more so under PresidentKhatami. However, until recently, Iran also found itself largely isolated from a growing

pan-Arab consensus on security issues, and with the heavy armament of Saudi Arabia andKuwait after the Gulf War, now needs to seek greater participation in a stable MiddleEast. Relations with Saudi Arabia have improved over recent years, but have not solvedIran's regional exclusion. Unfortunately, failures in Iran's human rights record (e.g. inrelation to the Bahai religious minority, see Teimourian 1994), charges of supportingterrorism, along with continued fear of the long-term implications of a radical, Islamicrevolution, have meant that Iran is still the subject of serious threat perceptions by theWest as well as by some Arab states. The question for U.S. and Western policy iswhether Iran should be kept 'out in the cold' and weakened economically in the hopes ofgreater concessions from Tehran, or whether this policy is the long term destabilising,only forcing Iran in much closer regional alignments with China, Pakistan, and possibly

even India. A thaw in relations between Iran and the US commenced in the 1998 period,but was not sustained through 1999. In general, the US seem through 1999-2000 seemedhappy to keep both Iraq and Iran contained, both relatively weak and yet in some roughbalance with each other (the dual containment policy). Events of late 2001 may haveshifted this focus, with Iran and Iraq deemed as part of an 'axis of evil', predicated ontheir capacity to generate weapons of mass destruction, their reported support for terroristnetworks, and their divergent (from the point of view of the West) political systems.

2. Turkey Looks West - and East and North

The Turks comprised several tribal groups who entered Central Asia, breaking up in

numbers of separate Turkic groups including the Kazakhs, the Oghuz in Turkmenistan,and the western Turks. The Ottoman Turks moved westward in the 14th century to createa great empire focused on Anatolia (modern Turkey). In 1453 A.D. the Ottoman Turksmanaged to conquer the great classical city of Constantinople (today's Istanbul), therebydestroying what remained of the Byzantine Empire. By the 17th century, the Ottomanempire controlled most of the eastern Mediterranean, all of Turkey, Greece and theBalkans, as well as small parts of Central Asia. They were at first a 'ghazi (warrior) stateon the borderland of two rival religions and civilizations' (Heper & Guney 2000, p636),situated on the fringe of Europe and soon controlling much of the Islamic and Arabworld.

External Resource:

For Maps of Turkey, go to the Perry-Castaeda Library Map Collection at

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/turkey.html

It was this historical movement of Turkish speaking peoples, influenced by Islam andelements drawn from Mongol and Persian culture, which helped create strong cultural

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/turkey.htmlhttp://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/turkey.htmlhttp://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/turkey.html

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affinities throughout the entire region of Central Asia. This Turkish linguistic andcultural elementprovided the background for a early 20th century conception of amodernised, unified state of Turkestan comprising all of Central Asia. Alongside this,pan-Turkic ideas (see Rubinstein & Smolansky 1995), partly influenced by the exampleof the secular revolution in Turkey in the 1920s, helped promote thejadidmovement

which sought to unify Islam and the notion of a modern nation-state. Today, Turkey canlook east to a vast region with a total of some 150 million speaking Turkic-typelanguages (Rouleau 1993, p111).

Dreams ofTurkestan soon collapsed before Russian power and Soviet ideology. Onesuch Turkestan Autonomous Government, centred on the city of Qoqan was crushedduring the period 1917-20, (Allworth 1990, pp172-3). The Soviets would also decide intime that a unified Turkestan (incorporating all of Central Asia) was not a good idea,from 1924 dividing the region into the republics (with some further boundary alterations)which we have now. Yet this idea of a greater 'Turkestan' still leaves a legacy today.Furthermore, these different countries, though never unified in a single nation-state (the

Turkestan dreamed of by some pan-Turkic thinkers), do form part of a cultural region.As explained by Dawisha and Parrott: -

Although never unified under a single state with borders coterminous with thoseof Soviet Central Asia, Central Asia once belonged to a common Islamiccivilization that encompassed portions of modern-day Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan,Pakistan, India, Sinkiang, the Caucasus, and the Volga region, and thisdistinctive cultural heritage is likely to exert a substantial influence on the externalrelations of the new Central Asian governments. The Caucasus bears asomewhat different stamp, including as it does peoples with ancient ties toChristendom as well as Turkic and non-Turkic Muslims. The resulting historicaland cultural mosaic gives the Caucasus certain features in common both with thenew states of Central Asia and with the new states situated to the west of Russia

(Dawisha & Parrott 1994, p45; see also Taheri 1989, p224)

At the same time, this dream of a unified Turkestan can still have political significance :when the CIS was formed, President Nazarbayev (of Kazakhstan) played on Russianfears by threatening to form a Central Asian union - as a result, Central Asian states wereadmitted to the CIS as 'founding members' (Dawisha & Parrott 1994, p85).

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The Blue Mosque in Istanbul: Symbol of Turkey's Cultural Heritage

(Photo R. James Ferguson 2000)

There were other impacts on the history of Central Asia. It was mainly Turkish control ofthe east Mediterranean coasts which cut off European traders from direct access to theSilk route, and which helped force European traders into the great age of sea-basedexploration. From the 15-19 centuries the Ottoman Empire played a major role in the

Mediterranean and Black Seas, often as an antagonist to European or Russian interests(Goodwin 1998). The Russians, in particular, nibbled away at Turkish possessions on theBlack Sea from the late 18th century onwards, allowing theRussian Empire to penetrateinto the Caucasus and Central Asian region by 1878 (see Riasanovsky 1993). This empirewas only dismantled at the end of the World War I, with the Soviet Union gaining greatercontrol of much of the trans-Caucasus and Central Asia by the end of the 1920s.

Turkey entered the modern era by forcing a constitutional monarchy on its Sultans, thenby a nationalistic revolt (1908-1923), led the 'young Turks' andKemal Ataturk(d. 1938).This revolution was unique in that it tried to propel Turkey into a role as a modernsecular state, disposing of much of the Islamic and Ottoman legacy. At the same time,

understanding that Turkey could not afford to antagonise the great Soviet power to itsnorth, the Turkish government officially abandoned all of its pan-Turkic policies,rejecting any claim to help Turkic peoples in Central Asia and those under Soviet control.This policy of pan-Turkic solidarity would only be revived after 1989 in a modified andsoftened form (see below).

These factors help explain why Turkey, though officially neutral in World War II, wassomewhat sympathetic to German victories after 1941, since this would weaken the

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Soviet Union (Calis 1997), and reduce Russian pressure on her north flank and softenRussian demands concerning naval access from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean.Yet since the 1930s Turkey began to see itself as a modern nation that belonged inEurope, in contrast to a barbaric Russia and a backward Middle East (Calis 1997).

On this basis, since the end of World War II, Turkey aligned itself with NATO and theU.S., largely as a reaction to a perceived Russian and communist threat. Since the 1960s,Turkey has pushed ahead with a 'western' alignment, seeking continued militaryrecognition as part of NATO. However, Turkey soon found that there were limits to howfar it could regard its security as fully guaranteed by this arrangement. It was greatlysurprised when the U.S. withdraw its medium-range nuclear missiles from Turkey on thebasis of an agreement with Russia to reduce tensions after the Cuban missile crisis of1962. Later on, when Turkish policies disagreed with those of the US and NATO, e.g.over the invasion of Cyprus in 1974 or during its period of military rule (1980-1983;earlier coups had occurred in 1960 and 1971), Turkey would find its supply of armscurtailed from Western sources. This type of restriction also occurred again in the 1990s

with German cancellation of equipment sales over Turkish treatment of its Kurdishminority, and its invasion of Kurdish territories in northern Iraq in 1995. As a result, theTurkish military has always sought to retain a strong, independent military force (and abastion of secularism, as well as retaining their elite-privileged position, see Heper &Guney 2000, p636), and in the 1990s has acquired ex-Soviet and East Europeanequipment including armoured personnel carriers and helicopters, and has evenconsidered the purchase of Russian jet fighters.

However, Turkey in the modern period recognised the dangers of trying to directlychallenge the Soviets on the battlefield. In fact, since 1921 when an initial treaty offriendship was signed with the Soviets, Turkey has, outside of her NATO membership,

sought to reduce any unnecessary bilateral tensions with Russia, though diplomaticallyuncomfortable with Russia's near abroad policy. On this basis, it has also avoidedbecoming too directly involved in the dispute between nearby Armenia and Azerbaijan.However, through 2001-2002 there have been greater signs of cooperation betweenTurkey and Azerbaijan, suggesting that Russia may be less sensitive on this issue thanbefore.

From 1990 Turkey has pushed ahead to enter a 'trade and tariff' agreement with theEuropean Union - by 1993 40% of its foreign trade was with Europe, as was most of itstourist and technological transfers (Mango 1993, p730. By the early 1990s, 80% of totalexports were in the industrial and manufacturing areas (Rouleau 1993, p117). Turkeyhoped eventually to enter the EU as a full member, though this path has been complicatedby problems over the Turkish economy, over human rights (see U.S. Department of State1997), and due to opposition from Greece. Relations with the European Union slipped totheir lowest level in 1997-1998 with the decision by the EU Conference on expansion togive Turkey the lowest priority on joining - several prospective Eastern Europeancountries are slated for earlier membership. Although a regular conference with Turkeywas approved, issues such as improving relations with Greece and supporting UNsettlements on Cyprus were quoted as prerequisites for progress on Turkish admission to

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the EU (Tucker 1997). The then Turkish Prime Minister, Mesut Yilmaz, then threatenedto withdraw Turkey's application unless it is granted equal status to other prospectivemembers (Barham 1997). Turkey was also refused admission to the Asia-EuropeMeetings (ASEM) of 1996 and 1998. In fact, EU-Turkish relations had been at low ebbduring 1997-1998. It was only in December 1999 that Turkey was formally accepted as a

candidate for future membership in the EU. European concerns about problems withTurkey's legal and political system remained strong through 1999-2000 (see below), andit seems like that the status of Cyprus will need to be resolved before Turkey gains fullmembership. In 2001 major concerns about the stability of Turkish currency and itseconomy also emerged, though Turkey hopes that formal accession talks will begin inlate 2002.

This 'westward' policy has only been partially affected by some return toaccommodation of Islamic culture, which has allowed elements of Islamic education andcustom to return into everyday life. By the early 1990s a major book in publishing andbroadcasting Islamic religious and historical ideas had occurred (see Rouleau 1993, p119

for details). This trend also included the Islamisation of opposition parties, in particularwith the formation of a coalition government involving the Turkish Welfare Party(Refah) in 1996-97 (Refah had only 21.3% in the December 1995 elections, but wasneeded to form a government). Refah gained support in particular among the poor, inunderdeveloped regions, and in the southeast areas of the country (Heper & Guney 2000,p649). Former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan then emerged as the country's first pro-Islamist leader. This has led some secularist groups in Turkey, especially well-educatedprofessional women, to worry about reforms which might head down the path of placingrestrictions on them in the future. Many women in fact have criticised former PrimeMinister Tansu Ciller (of the True Path Party) for forming a coalition with the WelfareParty (Ms. Ciller in 1996 took up the post of Deputy Prime Minister and ForeignMinister). Yet it is probably this coalition which had also moderated any tendency forErbaken to head down the line of passing Islamic laws during 1996. Indeed, through1980s-1990s there was very limited support for the introduction of Shari'a law withinTurkey (between 1-7%, depending on the survey, see Heper & Guney 2000, p638).Indeed, support forRefah was based on its record as a clean party with little corruption,and due to its large network of social welfare support (Heper & Guney 2000, pp638-639).

Only in early 1997 were there some signs of serious tensions concerning the secularnature of the Turkish state, e.g. over a proposed law to allow women to wear the Islamicheadscarf in offices and universities if they wished. Turkish army chiefs (General CevikBir and General Ismail Hakki Karadayi) warned the government that the military wouldnot tolerate any moves which undermined the secular/democratic state established byAtaturk (Straits Times 1997). It should be noted that under the 1982 Constitution Turkeyis defined as a secular state, and that Article 35 of the Internal Service Act of the TurkishArmed Forces (1961) makes the army responsible for defending the Republic of Turkeyas defined in the constitution (Heper & Guney 2000, p637). The opposition People'sRepublican Party (CHP) has also expressed concern over possible Islamisation on theIranian model. In early 1997, likewise, the mayor of Sincan, a suburb of the capitalAnkara, also gave strong support to Iran and Islam in his public speeches, resulting in the

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army later on routing a convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles through the area in ademonstration of their power (Pope 1997). Yet Mr. Erbakan had been able tocompromise: 'he has had to sign a new agreement with Israel, give his approval for theexpulsion from the military of officers perceived to have Islamist leanings and to allowan elected mayor from his own party to be arrested' (Pope 1997).

However, the Welfare Party coalition did not retain power when nine parliamentariansresigned their posts, allowing a new minority government to form. In part, the failure ofthe Erbakan's government was based on a political campaign orchestrated by the military,and using secular business groups, labor groups, and women's groups to block any pro-religious legislation (Boudreaux 2000). The Welfare Party then came underConstitutional Court scrutiny for possibly undermining the secular nature of the Turkishstate. A new Islamist Virtue Party had been created in case the older party was banned(Barham 1997). In 1998-1999, the Turkish Constitutional Court proceeded to ban theWelfare Party (RP), as well as against other religiously based parties.

Thereafter, coalitions of secular-oriented parties ( at first especially the DemocraticLeft Party, the Nationalist Action Party, and the Motherland Party) took government(Heper & Guney 2000, pp646-647). In early 2002, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's party,Democratic Left Party (DSP), has two main coalition partners, Deputy Prime MinisterMesut Yilmaz's center-right Motherland Party (ANAP) and Deputy Prime MinisterDevlet Bahceli's far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), indicating once again the needto keep a stable coalition intact. At present, the government parties have been negotiatingsecurity and penal laws in order to make them more compatible with EU human rightsdemands. The implementation of the reformed laws remain somewhat ambiguous: -

Article 312 states that inciting crowds to hatred on religious, racial, social, orcultural grounds is punishable by up to three years in jail. Legislators . . .

reportedly added a clause saying that the offense, to be punishable by law,should now be committed "in a way that could endanger public order" or "putpeople in a dangerous situation." In its previous version, Article 159 said anyonedefaming the military, the police, the government, or any other state institutionthat symbolizes "Turkishness" could face up to six years in prison. The amendedversion reduces the maximum jail term to three years. (Peuch 2002b)

For President Suleyman Demirel and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit remained extremelyconcerned about Islamic influence in Turkey, and at a meeting of the National SecurityCouncil in late January 1999 urged all political parties not to use religion in futureelections (Turkish Daily News 1999a). Former leader of the banned Welfare Party,Necmettin Erbakan, wanted to run as a candidate for a new party in the 1999 elections.

However, this posed legal problems since according to a former head of theConstitutional Court, leaders of banned parties are not supposed to be founders,members, or directors of new parties, and are not eligible to run for a seat in Parliament(Turkish Daily News 1999b). By March 2000, it seemed that a one year prison sentenceagainst Erbakan would be upheld, using article 312 of the Penal Code which prohibitsspeeches which might provoke hatred or violence (Cevik 2000).

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These events have led to very serious concerns within Turkey and Europe about limits onthe freedom of religious expression in Turkey (Cevik 2000; Kinzer 2000), limits whichundermine the genuine workings of the electoral system there. On this basis, Europeanofficials have argued that of the 13 nations which are candidates for EU membership,only Turkey is insufficiently democratic to meet EU requirements (Kinzer 2000).

Religion and religious issues will remain a covert concern in the political life of Turkey,and interact with limits to political freedom. However, through 1999-2001, the newVirtue (Fazilet) Party (led by Recai Kutan) has only secured about 15% of the vote, andhas emerged as a more moderate party unlikely to challenge the secular credentials of thestate (Heper & Guney 2000, p639, p647).

Yet, in the past the Turkish government has been so pro-Western that some MiddleEastern critiques have viewed it as essentially a U.S. proxy (such were early criticismsfrom the Khomeini regime in Iran), a view supported by statements by the TurkishForeign Policy Institute in Ankara in 1993, which suggested that Turkey's main enemieswere to the south and southeast, and one possibility was to try to extent the NATO area to

cover the Persian Gulf (Mango 1993, p728). Furthermore, thispro-Western policy hasalso allowed Turkey to engage in trade deals with Israel, and an emerging securitycooperation between Turkey and Israel, a policy which has also been widely criticised insome Middle Eastern circles Turkey recognised the state of Israel in 1948 and retainedgood relations ever since, though it has also supported the demand for a state of Palestine(Rouleau 1993, p114). This has led to complicated Turco-Arab relations and tensionsalong the Turkish-Syria border(see Bezanis 1996a & 1996b). Turkey has also chargedthat Syria has been training Kurdish rebels, an issue that had only been resolved withaccords signed in October 1998 (Straits Times 1998). Furthermore, the U.S. has hoped toplacate Turkey and retain it as a powerful ally in the Middle East and Cental Asia(Barham 1997).

However, Turkey has not received complete recognition as a modern democratic statefit to enter into a closer political association with Europe. This has largely been based onseveral factors: -

* Limits to democracy in Turkey, which has always had a strong statist approach,emphasising state powers and state security rather than individual rights. This wasmost extreme under military rule, but has remained problematic down to 1996-2002,with repeated claims ofhuman rights abusesby Amnesty International. Theseabuses have been directed at left wing groups, liberal elements who oppose policepowers, as well as against the Kurdish population generally, who are certainlyeconomically disadvantaged, as well as members of the (PKK) Kurdish WorkersParty (see Mango 1993, p733-4 & Rouleau 1993, pp122-125) and against a ShiiteMuslim minority, the Alawites (Bal 1997). At the same time we cannot generalise thisto Turkish intolerance: a prosperous Jewish community in Turkey has been generallywell treated, with the Ottomans willing to take in Jews expelled from Spain in thelate 15th century (sumptuous 500yr celebrations of this generous action took place in1992, see Mango 1993, p753). Young urban middle classes, in particular, lookforward to a more free and generally modern-Western lifestyle. In general, trendsthrough the late 1990s suggest some progress in democratic institutions, with

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the military playing a moderating rather than dominant role in political affairs, andwith a new and more positive role for moderate Islamic political parties downthrough 2000 (Heper & Guney 2000, pp650-653). This trend has been partiallyreversed through 2001-2002, with much greater sensitivity to organised religiousgroups, e.g. new tensions with the dervish order, the Alevi-Bektashi Institution,

on the basis that it was promoting a sectarian belief and religious separatism(Peuch 2002a).

* Ongoing disputes between Greece and Turkey. In fact legacies of tension havecontinued since Greece staged a revolution against Ottoman rule, with renewedtensions in 1897, 1918-20, 1955, the early 1960s, and 1974. These disputes haveincluded diplomatic conflicts over small islands along the coast of Turkey andcontrol of resources in the Aegean, with disputes escalating in late 1995. Majordisputes have escalated from 1955, especially after 1974 with the Turkish militaryintervention in Cyprus, and the problem of ethnic warfare in Cyprus between Greekand Turkish groups. Tensions over military exercises in Cyprus emerged again in late1997. To date, no real solution has been reached on these issues, and Cyprus remainssubjected to ethnic tensions which a UN monitored border between the twocommunities. In the long run, especially if Cyprus and Turkey are to enter into theEuropean Union, these issues will need to resolved. No definitive solution wasreached through UN hosted negotiations in September 2000. Relations betweenGreece and Turkey improved slightly in 2000 when aid and emergency workers fromGreece arrived to help with massive earthquake damage, but this good will was notsustained, and in October 2000 Greece pulled out of joint NATO exercises withTurkey due to renewed tensions. Tensions have resurfaced in 2001-2002 over thetreatment of Greek religious art and icons in the Turkish controlled part of Cyprus.

*An ongoing special role for the militaryas defender of the constitution,

secularism and (cultural) nationalism, and a key force again Islamism in the country(Heper & Guney 2000). The Turkish generals wield considerable power through theNational Security Council, which is made up of the President, four seniorministers, and five top military commanders, and at times seems to act almost as aparallel government (Boudreaux 2000; Heper & Guney 2000, p637). This has led toa overuse of security concerns in political life in Turkey, as well as the maintenanceof a strong military machine. The military spends about 9% of the governmentbudget, and also has extensive holdings in the defence, automotive, cement, foodand chemical industries (Boudreaux 2000). Summarising events between 1998 and2000, its has been noted that: -

In the past three years, they [the generals] have rid their nation of anIslamist-led government, crushed a Kurdish separatist insurgency,dissuaded Greek Cypriots from deploying Russian-made missilesagainst Turkish planes, forged a defence pact with Israel and begun ashopping spree for tanks and attack helicopters. (Boudreaux 2000)

These impediments should not be exaggerated. Turkey'spotential as a growing capitalisteconomy has led to considerable trade and investment with the West, with Germany in

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particular. Turkey's support for the U.S. intervention against Iraq, with Turkey allowingits air bases to be used by US and NATO operations, certainly has given it some leveragewith both America and the EU. Likewise, Turkey has supported the internationalintervention in Afghanistan, itself strongly sensitive to religiously formed patterns ofterrorism. In March 2002, U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney has promoted the idea of

Turkey leading ongoing peace-keeping force in Afghanistan, and has offered financial aidin support of this idea of around $228 million (Association Press 2002).

Turkey is in fact seen as a valuable strategic assetwhich can remind both Russia and theNIS (Newly Independent States) of the ability of the West to intervene directly in MiddleEastern and Central Asia affairs. In this context some reports suggest that Turkeyreceived some $6 billion dollars aid in return for its support in the Gulf War. Turkey hasalso tried to utilise its position in relation to being a 'front line' state in relation toterrorism. In March 2002, 'Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, speaking at a European Unionsummit meeting, urged the bloc to give efficient support for Turkey's fight againstterrorism', and wanted Turkish 'terrorist groups such as the Kurdistan Workers Party

(PKK) and the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C)' on Europe's listof terrorist organsations (Turkish Daily 2002). In general, Turkey has sought toassimilate, with limited success, the Kurdish minority (Houston 2001), and has sought toavoid any extension of the idea of a Kurdish state centred on a fractured northern Iraq,and issue that may return into prominence in the 2002-2003 period.

It is against this background that we can see the Turkish modelis often presented as thepreferred one for development for Central Asian states: i.e. a secular, relatively stablepro-Western approach (see for example Bal 1997; Cuthbertson 1994, p38). Proponents ofthis approach, however, often forget the poor human rights legacy of Turkey, itsproblems with ethnic minorities, and claims of collusion between a powerful Turkish

mafia and elements in the government. Likewise, its economy, though developing, is notstrong enough to provide a major input into development in the Central Asian States(Rouleau 1993, p112). Furthermore, the almost completely secular approach of the earlyTurkish Republic after 1923 was so extreme that it has in the 1980s and 90s had togradually allow some return of Islam into political life. Such entirely secular approacheswould probably lead to mass protests in most states of Central Asia, where Islam isengaged in a kind of renaissance. Likewise, the state of Turkey suffered from highinflation (60-70% through the early 1990s), unwise fiscal policies (printing too muchmoney), and a very high foreign debt ($56 billion in 1993, see Mango 1993, p743). Thismeans that its high economic growth from 1981-1993, (between 6 and 8%, Rouleau1993, p117) has not fully provided the level of social stability and modernisation it hadhoped for. The economy tends to confirm to an export led- cycle through the 1980s, witha strong need for inputs of investment and short-term capital flows through the 1990s tosustain growth and reform (Ertugrul & Selcuk 2001). Its political difficulties includetroubles with minorities such as the Kurds, and an inability to create a genuinelydemocratic, pluralist, industrialised state (Mango 1993, pp726-7). From this perspective,it is a somewhat flawed model, and in fact several Central Asian states have consideredlooking to East Asian models (Japan and the 'new tigers') as preferred paths ofdevelopment.

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In January 2000, Turkey reached agreements with the World Bank for furtherstructuralreform to their economy, resulting in expected agreements of up to US$750 million tosupport changes in 'public expenditure management, agriculture, energy, social securityand privatization' (Turkish Daily News 2000). From 1999, the International Money Fundalso began programs in Turkey designed to bring inflation under control (currently

running at 26%), but slow reform in the Turkish banking sector led to 12 of these majorbanks needing support from the Turkish government, with the IMF and the EU providing$11.2 in fresh loans in November 2000 (Zeihan 2001).Problems with the Turkisheconomy re-emergedin force through February and March 2001. A row betweenPresident Ahmet Sezer and Bulent Ecevit made these issues public on 21st February 2001,sparking off a flight of investment and a drop in value of the Turkish lira of over onethird (Zeihan 2001). New programs suggested in March 2001 may including the mergingof three of these banks which would then be privatised, as well as the sale of 51% of thestate telecommunications company (Fraser 2001). Through 2002, the financial crisis hasbeen slowly stabilised, but renewed IMF and EU efforts are likely bearing in mindTurkey's key strategic location.

To date, Turkey has pursued constructive engagement with all Central Asian states,being especially active in trade, investment, education and cultural contacts. Hundred ofprotocols and agreements have been signed on areas such as 'banking, industry,agriculture, trade, aeronautics, education, publishing, academic and military training', andTurkey has begun 'flooding the Central Asian republics with journals, books, andtelevision programs beamed via a French-built satellite station' (Rouleau 1993, p112).Yet, in the modern world, physical proximity does not provide the advantages it once did,with Central Asia wishing to open to a wide range of global influences (see below).

Turkish relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan have been more complicated. Turkey

has always had closer ties ethnically and politically with the Azeri people than with otherCentral Asians, and has generally sought to restrain Armenian successes by two policies:firstly, by the application of diplomatic pressure, including support of Gorbachev'soriginal position that Nagorno-Karabakh must remain in Azerbaijan, and secondly, bysending arms and equipment to Azerbaijan. At the same time, there are real limits to howfar Turkey can intervene in this dispute. Firstly, any large scale intervention wouldsimply justify a Russian military presence along the borders of Armenia and thecontinuation of Russian military bases in the region. On this basis, Armenia in June 1994offered bases for Russian forces on a rent-free basis (Lepingwell 1994, p77). In fact, it isprobably in Turkey's interest not to have a Russian, or even large CIS force along its ownborders. In large measure, Russia has used a range of diplomatic and military moves tolargely exclude large-scale Turkish and Iranian initiatives in the region (Cuthbertson1994, p36). Secondly, world opinion, including that of NATO and the US does notentirely favour the Azeri position, opening Turkey to further diplomatic and economicsanctions if it intervenes too openly. Here, charges of genocide by the Turks against theArmenians in 1922 still remain a controversial issue. Nonetheless, Turkey has managedto avoid allowing the CIS to dominate the issue. Through early 2002 Turkey opened up asecurity dialogue with neighbouring states in the Caucasus (excluding Armenia), and alsobegan a deepened cooperation with Azerbaijan.

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In summary, Turkey remains a regionally powerful but troubled state. Essential politicaland economic reform needs to continue if Turkey is to balance its hopes of futureadmission into the European Union alongside the maintenance of a positive internationalenvironment in the Black Sea area, Central Asia and in its relations with the Middle East.Recent changes in power relations (2001-2002) within Eurasia have given Turkey a

strategic opportunity to increase its regional importance, but Turkey will need to retaineconomic and political stability to be strong enough to capitalise on this situation.

3. Iran: from Radical Ideology to Pragmatism to Isolation?

Iran, traditionally known as Persia, was the home of the one of the world's greatcivilisations which from the 6th century B.C. had a profound influence on the MiddleEast and the West, first in its challenging influence on the Greek and Roman civilisations,then as a major cultural influence throughout the Islamic domains of the Middle Eastand Central Asia. Persian influence culturally and linguistically was felt most strongly inTajikistan, but also formed part of the high culture of the entire region of Central Asia

down into the 19th century. The power of the royal Persian state was gradually erodedunder Turkish, Russian and then British influence (see Humphreys 1991), and thereforewas unable to effectively modernise under the Qajar Dynasty (1794-1925). Likewise, theemergence of limited parliamentary powers in the 20th century did not result in a truedemocracy under the Pahlavis Shahs, though the country was able to modernise to someextent with the proceeds from oil exports (1925-1979). At the same time, oil made thecountry strategically valuable, and therefore made it very important to European, Britishand U.S. foreign policy agendas, as well as to large oil consortiums such as the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. This also explained why the U.S. and Britain were willing tointervene in Iranian affairs, e.g. in helping overthrow Dr. Mossadeq government when hesought to nationalise the oil industry, resulting in the pro-Western the rule of the Shah

from 1953 (see Appendix for Iranian timeline).

The modern state of Iran has had a turbulent history. From 1953 the Shah of Irandirected Iran into a generally pro-U.S. and pro-Israeli policy which allowed amodernisation and empowerment of Iran in regional terms, and ensured a secure base ofoperations for U.S. oil companies. However, the Shah became progressively reliant on arepressive secret police (SAVAK) and strictly limited all forms of political freedom. Hewas overthrown during riots begun in 1978 and culminating in the revolution of 1979,largely under the leadership of the Islamic jurist, theAyatollah Khomeini. At first agenuinely popularist revolution, drawing in a wide spectrum of Islamic, leftist and middleclass intellectual support, within the two years the Revolutionary government hadadopted a strongly authoritarian style of government. Soon the Khomeini regimeliquidated its socialist and communist allies, up to 3 million of the educated middle classchose to flee the country (at one stage some 1.7 million Iranians were a peak populationof exiles in Turkey), while strict censorship still controls intellectuals within Iran (seeTeimourian 1994).

External Resource:

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For Maps of Iran, go to the Perry-Castaeda Library Map Collection at

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/iran.html

The Khomeini regime has been a target for anti-Islamic thought and foran isolationist

US policy. This was partly based on American outrage when extremist Iranian studentsheld 53 U.S. embassy staff hostage during 1979-1981 (see Zangeneh 1994). The failureof an early U.S. hostage rescue attempt added extra insult to what seemed a majorreversal of U.S. interests in the region. Some of the claims of state-sponsored terrorism(reiterated by President Clinton in March 1996) may have been exaggerated (see below).Such threat perceptions of Iran make the following statement typical: 'Tehran isinfiltrating the nascent Central Asian states, primarily through economic and commercialarrangements, as well as establishing embassies . . . ' (Ritcheson 1995, p573). In fact, theonly area where Iran has been successful in promoting export of its religious ideas hasbeen into parts ofLebanon, and this is also the only area where there is strong evidencethat they have strongly funded terrorism (see below). More recent support for Muslim

groups in Central Asia has been suggested, but in fact terrorists in Uzbekistan, forexample, are more likely to have received support or training from groups withinAfghanistan and/or Pakistan (up to 2001).

However, very real concerns do exist about the future impact of Iran on the region .These include: -

* During the early 1980s Iran was certainly engaged in support for Hezbollah inLebanon, though it also helped restrain them and return some U.S. hostages. Iraniansupport for the Hamas group involved in the mid-1990s bombings in Israel isregularly stated as fact in Western sources, but is much more controversial andharder to prove (for an alternative view, see Ritcheson 1995). Under the leadershipof President Khatami, Iran has now formally revoked the export of IslamicRevolutionas part of its state policy (Alam 2000).

* In 1989 Khomeini issued a religious-legal decree (fatwa) against the Indian authorSalman Rushdiefor what he considered to be blasphemy in the book, Satanic Verses(see Ahmed 1989). The penalty for such a charge is death. Although Salman Rushdiehas not been harmed, perhaps due to the extensive security arrangements aroundhim between 1989 and 1994, others involved in either translating or publishing thiswork have been wounded or assassinated. In 1995 the Rafsanjani government madea mild compromise statement concerning Rushdie, but the issue was far from beingfully diffused, and in 1997 the death penalty was reinforced by raising the reward for

its execution. At the wider level, this was an issue of Western and modernistdemands for free speech, for democracy and political pluralism, verses coercivedemands for respect for one interpretation of Islam, i.e. it was part of a largerpolitical drama. After some hesitation by some Western governments (whoconsidered banning or editing the book), the entire episode has largely reboundedagainst the Iranian radicals. The sincerity of Rushdie's desire for free speech can beseen in his reaction to a anti-Rushdie Pakistani film which was made demonisinghim, misrepresenting his character, and showing his eventual death. British

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authorities had originally denied the film the right to be publicly shown - Rushdiehimself wrote to the film board asking that in the name of free speech it be allowedpublic viewing. It was a great box office flop - both the British public and the BritishIslamic community knew it was a poor film (Rushdie himself seems to have beenmost offended by the poor dress sense ascribed to him in the film). Since 1989

hundreds of Islamic writers and artists around the world have expressed their publicsupport for Rashdie's demand for free speech. Likewise, no other Islamic or MiddleEastern nation has supported thefatwaagainst Rushdie, and many Islamic scholarsconsider the sentence illegal under Islamic lawsince Rushdie is not the citizenof an Islamic state, and was not able to answer the charges in a trial. Most recently,reformist elements in the Iranian government have publicly stated the penalty shouldnot be carried out, allowing Rushdie to resume his normal public life.

* Factions or ministers in Iran have been involved in supportingassassination ofIranian dissidents abroad, e.g. in France and Germany. Perhaps the hardestevidence is found in a case where four members of the Iranian Kurdish Party werekilled in 1992, with German courts in 1996 claiming clear evidence that the then

Iranian Information Minister was involved. Relations improved to some degree in2000, though Germany remains concerned about the lack of transparency in Iraniancourt procedures.

* Western analysts, as well as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the small Gulf states haverepeated concern about the relative rearmament of Iran since 1989(see Ritcheson1995; Chipman 1995). It is true that Iran has managed to gain a sizeable number ofinterceptors and fighter bombers from Russia, as well as Iraqi planes fleeing the U.S.attack on Iraqi air-bases in the Gulf War. Likewise, Iran has modernised its groundforces and slowly begun to rebuilt its navy. It has also purchased advanced shortrange and medium range missiles from Russia, China and North Korea (Scud-Bs and

C's, plus M-9s and Silkworm missiles). All these factors make Iran a sizeable forcein the Gulf region. In 1996 U.S. naval sources were also concerned that Iran hadacquired new Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, the C-802, which could make it muchmore of a threat in the case of conflict in the Persian Gulf (Prescott 1996). At thesame time, it must be remembered that Iranian military spending is among the lowestin the region (dropping to $2.46 billion in 1995; Chipman 1995, p132), and far lessthan that of Saudi Arabia ($13.2 billion for 1995, Chipman 1995, p145). Defencespending had strengthened to $5.7 billion by 1999 (Chipman 2000, p139), indicatinga moderate increase in capability. The net result of these purchases is that Iran isnow stronger than Iraq, and may be able to defend itself against any regional Gulfcoalition, though only small sections of its equipment are technologically advanced

enough to challenge U.S. forces, e.g. possible cruise missile deals with China,protested by US Congress. There have also been rumours in Israeli papers that Iranwishes to develop Russian type SS-4 and North Korean Nodong-1 medium rangemissiles, but this has been denied by Russian sources (Meredova 1997). Iran alsofeels clearly threatened by the intervention ability of the U.S. and its coalition sincetheir defeat of Iraq's large army. This issue has come intro prominence withPresident Bush naming Iran as a threaton the basis of its military capability andit past hostility to the U.S., leading in turn to mass protests within Iran during

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February 2002 against these views. Perhaps fortunately for Iran, Iraq seems morelikely a target for short-term intervention, but the prospect of regional war, refugees,and a stronger U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia will be of seriousconcern to the Iranian government.

* More controversy has raged over whether Iran is actively pursuing a nuclearweapons programme, a fear sparked by some Iranian statements that since Israelhas the bomb, an 'Islamic' bomb is needed to counter it. Various estimates suggestthat Iran in the mid-1990s was between 3 and 10 years from being able to develop anuclear weapon, with CIA reports being the most alarmist (see Ritcheson 1995;Chipman 1995). However, the IAEC has inspected several Iranian sites, and hasfound nothing inconsistent with a peaceful nuclear energy program, and no evidenceof a large scale enrichment programme for weapons-grade plutonium or enricheduranium has been discovered. The problem here, of course, is that much nuclear-know-how is potentially 'dual use'. Such fears of an Iranian bomb largely stem fromthe assessment that Iran should not need to develop a large nuclear power sectorsince it has plentiful supplies of oil and gas, and assessments that Iran will need such

a bargaining chip to enhance its regional power. To date, Russia, China, Pakistan andIndia have helped provide components and training for Iran's nuclear energyprogramme. Nuclear scientists and technicians have also been imported from CentralAsia. As of January 1997, Iran has stated that it expects a nuclear power plant atBushehr (a southern Iranian port) to be operational within three years - the plant willcompleted with Russian help at the cost of $800 million (Meredova 1997). Note, ofcourse, that Iran has signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and cantherefore be inspected for compliance. If Iran is secretly developing nuclearcapability, I would suggest that it may be heading be a 'pre-nuclear' capabilitythatwould enhance its regional leverage, but which would not make its facilities themajor target that Iraqi and North Korean facilities became. To come too close to

actually assembling a bomb would make Iran a target for Israeli, US, and even SaudiArabian pre-emptive actions. As a threshold state, however, Iran might gain moreregional and international leverage. Nor has the Pakistanian development of an'Islamic bomb' in 1998 really aided Pakistan's prestige internationally, a trend whichhas been watched closely by Iran.

To date,Iran has avoided playing a major intrusive role in Central Asia, reducingentanglement in either Tajikistan or Azerbaijan, largely because it has its own ethnicbalancing act to perform (considerable numbers of Azeris are found in northern Iran). Inspite of some efforts to built cultural and religious ties with Central Asia, it is possible toargue that through 2001 Iran 'has failed to formulate a long-range foreign policy for

Central Asia' (see Efegil & Stone 2001). In August 1998 Taliban forces had arrested anumber of Iranian diplomats and nationals (Economist1998). This resulted in a partialmobilisation of Iranian forces along their border with Afghanistan border, and eventuallythe Iranians were released. Iran has also been concerned about drug routes out ofAfghanistan crossing through its territory, and has tried to close down this route forinternational heroin smuggling. To do this, it claims it needs more support from theinternational community. Iran has had an interest in moderating Taliban influence in theregion, and therefore has been watching closely the stabilisation program for

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Afghanistan, a process it has been willing to support financially. Iran was one of the firstcountries to re-open its embassy in Kabul, and through 2002 has been trying to deepen itsengagement, and therefore influence, in Afghanistan (Samii & Recknagel 2002).

Likewise,Iran has pursued a policy of cautious engagement with Turkey, with trade

booming during the period of the Iraq-Iran war. Since then, there have been efforts toincrease trade, and to secure deals whereby Turkey and Iran would share in profits fromprospective oil and gas lines routed through their countries. Such policies are based onmutual pragmatism, in spite of the genuine ideological difference between the twocountries, with Turkey the most secular state in the region, Iran the most revolutionary inits Islamic politics. There are real differences in foreign policy between the two states,with Turkey engages in security cooperation with Israel, which has been stronglycriticised by Iran. The U.S., of course, has tried to discourage any resource pipelinesbeing routed through Iran, and has strongly supported longer pipelines options throughTurkey.

In large measure, Iran has much more pressing concerns to deal with rather than givingpriority to the export of its brand of Islamic revolution. Although Iran has managed toconduct a high level of trade with Germany, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, and evensome U.S. companies, the political isolation of the country has made it difficult for thecountry's export-based economy to greatly improve. Quotas within OPEC, difficulty inrouting oil through other routes than the Persian Gulf, and lasting infrastructure damagefrom the Iraq-Iran war have had an enduring effect. Likewise, the flight of businessmenand scientists from Iran has made it difficult for Iran to manage its resources effectively.In 1996 the economy remained relatively weak bearing in mind Iran's growingpopulation, with inflation at 17.1% (1991), unemployment at 30%, and with income formost individuals dropping in real terms since 1978. This is an ironic situation, since new

rail and prospective pipeline links between Iran and Central Asia make it the short routefor access to these land-locked countries (Tarock 1997). GDP growth improved through1999 reaching some 5.5%, but much needs to be done if Iran is reach its full economicpotential.

Through the 1990s, the government of Iran under the leadership of then PresidentRafsanjani (and Khatamai) has tried to present a more moderate face to the world, withthe President making repeated statements opposing terrorism, the last in March 1996.Basically, to date, the pragmatist faction in government has been keen to open thecountry to more trade and even to foreign investment. Yet it may be hard to sustain thesemore open policies, especially if there is no positive response from American orEuropean nations.Religious and political leader, and Commander in Chief of theArmed Forces, Ayatollah Kameneicontrolled more hard line factions that have slowedpolitical reform.

To date, the U.S. has been reluctant to normalise relations with Iran. In large measure,this is based not just on 'hard feelings' over the past. The U.S. may be capitalising onfears of Iran to build a stronger, pro-Western alliance in the Gulf based on bilateralrelations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, as well as establishing a new circle of

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cooperation within Eurasia based on the containment of terrorism. However, there arealso real fears that the public policy of Iran covers secret agendas to strengthen Iran andeventually pose a real threat to Western interests in the region. The danger, however, isthat if Iran is left 'out in the cold' too long, this will force the regime to more extrememethods to secure popularity. Already Iran has needed to align itself more closely with

North Korea, China and India, something which is not necessarily in U.S. interests.Future alignments with China and Russia are alos possible, depending on U.S. bilateralrelations with these two powers (Ahrari 2001). However, in presidential elections in 1997Khatami won a strong victory over his conservative rival Nateq-Nuri (Alam 2000).Trends from 1997 in general supported reform, though conservative clerics still retainstrong influence. If so, constructive engagement of Iran will easier so long as reformcontinues.

Iran's current President, Mohammad Khatami, is also a moderate, and hopes tonormalise Iran's place in world affairs, in spite of opposition from conservatives. This haslead to a contemporary debate within Iran as to whether Islam can sustain its own version

of democracy and civil society. Elections in Iran during February 2000 generallysupported this edging towards reform. Khatami's Islamic Iran Participation Front wont141 seats in the 290-seat parliament, while hardliners only won 44 places. PresidentKhatami is calling for more person freedoms, an independent media and judiciary, andhad hoped to restore normal relations with the US (Maclean's 2000). President Khatamifavours a 'dialogue of civilisations' rather than a 'clash of civilisations', and has hoped toimprove relations with the U.S., EU, and with the potential regional rival Saudi Arabia(Alam 2000; Ahrari 2001). Part of this policy includes an effort to re-engage the Arabworld, increase stability in the Persian Gulf, and continued diplomatic to the presence ofU.S. military forces in the Gulf area (Alam 2000). In support of these efforts, Khatamivisited Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar, the Vatican City, Italy and France (Alam 2000).

The U.S. Clinton administration had responded cautiously to Iran's suggestion ofdialogue between the two counties (Clark 1997). In early 1998 'wrestling-diplomacy' tookplace with the Iranian wrestling team visiting the U.S., and with overtures for morenormalised relations being pursued through 1998. By 2000, the US Clintonadministration had edged towards cautious 'policy engagement', with a lifting of theembargo on the import of caviar, carpets and pistachio (Alam 2000). However, thisprogress then faltered, with annual U.S. sanctions banning oil contract being extendedthrough 1999 and 2000, though medical and agricultural trade has been allowed (Schweid2000). However, the State Department and the current Bush administration still arguesthat 'Iran sponsors terrorism, is aiming for an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction andis trying to sabotage Arab-Israeli peacemaking' (Schweid 2000). This suggests that anynormalisation of relations between Iran and the U.S. could only occur after very hardbargaining on a range of complex international issues. Iran is still opposed to Israel, aswell as U.S. forces in the Gulf region (Alam 2000). In the current climate, there may belittle need for the U.S. to soften its views of Iran.

On the other hand, European countries and Japan have been willing to give support to aWorld Bankloan of US$231 million, aimed at improving health care and a major sewage

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improvement project (Dunphy 2000). Support for the loan might indicate some effort toreward movements towards reform within Iran. Likewise, through 1990s relationsbetween Iran and India steadily improved, with India charting a policy of 'energydiplomacy' aimed at accessing Iranian gas reserves (see Naaz 2001; Alam 2000). From1999 the isolation of Iran economically began to weaken, with major French and Italian

companies (Elf Aquitaine and ENI) investing in the development of oil fields near KhargIsland (Alam 2000). India, Pakistan and Iran have begun serious talks over the possibilityof a major overland gas pipeline from Iran, with this now faltering on Indian distrust ofPakistan's reliability (Naaz 2001). Other options include a pipeline along the coast shelf,or building large LNG handling facilities in both countries to use tankers to boost gasexports.

External Resource:

For an IRAN TIMELINE 1795-1979, go to

http://www.mage.com/TLbody.html

4. Signs of Regional Cooperation and Conflict

To date, Iran and Turkey have shown signs ofcompetition for influence, but not thelarge-scale conflict suggested by the Great Game model. Aside from factors alreadymentioned, indicators include: -

* The clearest sign of regional cooperation are a number offledgling regionalorganisations. Aside from the Caspian Sea regional organisation, these include theBlack Sea Economic Cooperative Community(formed June 1992, stronglysupported by Turkey, see Rouleau 1993, p113) and the Economic CooperationOrganisation(ECO). The ECO is something more than a reborn version the RCD(Regional Cooperation and Development organisation, or of CENTO, the CentralTreaty Organisation). The ECO links Central Asia to Iran, Pakistan, Turkey,Afghanistan, and Azerbaijan in a cooperative arrangement which seeks to improvetrade, investment, travel and communication links (Yasmeen 1995, p9). The strengthof these regional forums is yet to be fully developed: the ECO in particular does nothave strong economic complementarities, is plagued by low intensity competitionbetween Turkey, Iran and Pakistan for influence in Central Asia, and has found therecent turmoil in Tajikistan and Afghanistan particularly disturbing. Yet suchorganisations are beginning to develop common banks, shipping companies, airlines,simplified visa and trade arrangements, and agreements to reduce drug traffic

(Yasmeen 1995, p9). Furthermore, the ECO provides a forum for future tensions tobe aired on a regular basis. In early 1997, for example, Western observers weresomewhat surprised at Turkish initiative to improve relations and trade with Iran,and even to possibly purchase oil from her (Boustany 1997).

* Turkey, due to its linguistic and ethnic commonalities, was keen to enter into aconstructive role in Central Asia and Azerbaijan. This has included considerableinvestment and trade in the region. Specific projects included negotiations for

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new pipelines and gas lines to be routed from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan andAzerbaijan via Turkey (Gardiner-Garden 1995b, p31; Bushev 1994). Efforts havebeen made to improve telecommunications (CIA 1993-1994), improve road routes,and smooth passage for trade at border crossing. As well, there have been upgradedlevels of diplomatic and military cooperation.

* However, the early euphoria for a new 'pan-Turkic' Central Asia, and early hopesby the US administration that Turkey could become the conduit for theWesternisation of Central Asia have largely failed. The Turkish model could notreadily be exported into Central Asia. This has been due to the fact that westernTurkish dialects are not directly, easily intelligible in Central Asia, due to Turkey'slack of export capital, and due to the fact the most Central Asian states would like tocreate their own direct links with European and American nations, and not useTurkey as some kind of middleman.

* Other prospects include possibilities of increased rail and road links through Iranto the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. These links were effectively upgraded in

1996-1998, and will continue to be improved in the near future (See Tarock 1997).Iran in particular has a major advantage in that it offers the shortest route to thesea for the southern Central Asian states, and has a long contiguous border withthem (Dannreuther 1994, p61). From Iran, border trade into Turkmenistan andAzerbaijan has increased, as did Turkish and Iranian trade during the 1980s.Turkmenistan has also proposed the possibility of building pipelines for export ofgas through Iran. However, all deals to build pipelines through or from Iran have toface the opposition of the U.S., which consistently tries to bar any aid, officialloans, or Western involvement in such pipelines. In this context, the US Congress inearly 1996 even tried to ban the Australian company BHP from building a majorpipelines from Iran to Pakistan. Attempts by the U.S. to impose trade sanctions on

foreign companies doing business with Iran resulted in a strong protest from the EUin April 1996, which threatened retaliation against such unilateral policies (StraitsTimes1996). Apparently this U.S. law would mainly apply only to new contracts, andto ventures which involve more than US$40 million annually of benefit to theIranian economy - thus the US$23 billion pipeline deal to transport natural gas fromIran to Turkey is likely to draw sanctions (Tsuruoka 1996). Recently, however, it hasbecome apparent that the $200 million Iran-Turkmenistan gas pipeline developmentproject will go ahead (Corzine 1997), and that sanctions will not be sufficient to stopIran being used as an access point. Major road and rail-links through Xinjiang havealso begun to link China into Central Asia.

As of 13 May 1996, major rail linkswere established between Iran and Central Asia,with a rail route connecting north Iran with Turkmenistan (from Meshhed in Iran toTedzhen, Turkmenistan). This route allows Turkmenistan to 'consolidate its positionas a neutral political entity' (Pannier 1996) by reducing Russian domination of itseconomy. At the same time it also helps reduce Iran's economic isolation, andreinforces her influence in the region. It is estimated that 'in the first year the line willcarry half a million passengers and two million tons of freight' (Pannier 1996).

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* Generally, at the economic level, Russian policyin the region is notconfrontational outside of its special zone of interest in the former republics. Thisdoes not mean that Russian policies will always accord with 'Western' interests. Since1993 Russia has played a more assertive role in the UN, increased trade with China,and attempted to improve or revive relations with Japan, Iraq (see Dannreuther

1993-4), Iran and India. Its special foreign and military policy to the near abroad alsogives it reasons to intervene if its interests in the region are seriously hampered (seelectures 1-4). Russia, however, has played a very tight game on the issue of CaspianSea oil, and the future of pipelines in the region. This problem of wider access toCentral Asian oil and gas has not yet been solved. At times, Iran and Russia haveagreed on their policies towards the legal control of Caspian Sea oil, them both extraleverages over these resources. Russia has also aided Iran with its military technology,as well as support in developing the nuclear power project at Bushehr in spite of USopposition. It is expected that over several years some $4 billion worth of militarymaterial will be purchased from Russia by Iran (Alam 2000). Recent small leveltensions between Iran and Azerbaijan over resources in the Caspian Sea has notchanged this situation (Lelyveld 2002), but as a whole Russia seems to be gaining

more influence rather than less on the diplomacy of Caspian oil.

5. Prospects: Beyond the Vacuum and Dual Containment?

As we can now see, Central Asia is anything but a vacuum. In fact the 'vacuum'metaphor is a rather simplistic dynamic metaphor (derived from the mechanicalsciences). From Chinese and Central Asia perspectives, vacuums, even when they exist,do not necessarily need to be filled - the demands for strategic manoeuvre anddisentanglement from dangerous future obligations suggest that they should not,especially by medium powers or even by great powers uncertain of their futurecommitments. In any case, the changing face of Russian interests in Central Asia does not

create a vacuum even in the traditional sense. As Turkey found when it hoped tocapitalise on its cultural connections with the region, Central Asia is a wide and complexgeographical terrain, which has an underdeveloped infrastructure, a complex ethnic,religious and political ecology, and the potential for dispersed conflict as well as nastyborder incidents. All these factors mean that rather than a vacuum, Central Asia providesa thick, not easily penetrated medium for external interests. These factors have beenrecognized by both Turkey and Iran, both of whom have demonstrated considerablecaution in recent years in their attempts to gain advantages from the region. Both havebeen restrained in their support for the Azeris, for example, with Iran repatriating some100,000 refuges who fled into Iran due to the conflict with Armenia. Especially since2001, Russia, China, U.S. and European interests represent stronger if less clearly

focused influences on Central Asia than either Turkey or Iran. Turkey may be able tocontain some strategic advantages from the political climate inspired by the 'war onterror', but there is no guarantee that it will be viewed as a suitable model for CentralAsian states. Likewise, if the U.S. moves against Iraq at some stage to change itsgovernment, then the dual containment policy will end and the U.S. may also need to re-think its relationship with Iran as well.

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Regional uncertainties and conflict have stopped both a wider Eurasian region, or the'fourth region' proposed by Milad Hanna (Hanna 1993) from effectively integrating.Whether constructive integration will occurs, largely depends on the mutual restraint ofRussia, Turkey and Iran, and a more proactive, long-term policy being developed in theU.S., China and Europe. The future economic development of Turkey-EU relations and

U.S.-Iran relations are central to progress in the region.

7. Bibliography and Further Resources

Resources

For news on Turkey and the region, see The Turkish Daily News, an English-language newspaper site with free and subscriber sections. Homepage locatedathttp://www.TurkishDailyNews.com/

A wide range of international and local Iranian news sources on Iran are

collected in the news section of the PersepolisWebpage athttp://www.persepolis.com/news/news-page.htm

NetIranwas a wide range of informational data, as well as links to newsservices and political analysis. Located athttp://www.netiran.com/

Further Reading

ALAM, Shah "The Changing Paradigm of Iranian ForeignPolicy", Strategic Analysis, 24 no. 9, December 2000, pp1629-1653 [Internet Access at http://www.idsa-india.org/an-content.htm]

BRONSTONE, AdamEuropean Security into the Twenty-FirstCentury: Beyond Traditional Theories of International Relations,Aldershot, Ashgate, 2000 [See Section III concerning Turkeyand its regional environment]

EFEGIL, Ertan & STONE, Leonard "Iran's Interest inCentral Asia: A Contemporary Assessment", Central AsianSurvey, 20 no. 3, 2001, pp353-365 [Bond University Library]

HEPER, Metin & GUNEY, Aylin "The Military and the

Consolidation of Democracy: The Recent TurkishExperience",Armed Forces and Society, 26 no. 4, Summer 2000,pp635-657 [Access via Proquest, off Bond University LibraryWebpage]

RUBIN, Barry & KRISCI, Kemal (eds.) Turkey in WorldPolitics: An Emerging Multiregional Power, Boulder, LynneRienner Publishers, 2001

http://www.turkishdailynews.com/http://www.turkishdailynews.com/http://www.turkishdailynews.com/http://www.persepolis.com/news/news-page.htmhttp://www.persepolis.com/news/news-page.htmhttp://www.netiran.com/http://www.netiran.com/http://www.netiran.com/http://www.netiran.com/http://www.persepolis.com/news/news-page.htmhttp://www.turkishdailynews.com/

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TAROCK, Adam "Iran's Policy in Central Asia", CentralAsian Survey, 16 no. 2, June 1997, p185-20 (Vertical File)

TORBAKOV, Igor "A New Security Arrangement TakesShape in The South Caucasus",Eurasia Insight, 24 January

2002 [Internet Access athttp://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav012402.shtml]

References

AHMED, Akbar S. "A Third Encounter of the Close Kind", History Today, 39, November 1989, pp4-9

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