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ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 8 November 2012 | Page 1

LEDinside: 2013 LED Industry Outlook- LEDforum 2012 Taipei

LEDforum 2012 Taipei

2013 LED Industry Outlook

-LEDforum 2012-

Roger hu

Director of Green Energy Division

November 02, 2012

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Our Research Category for Green Energy

Market Intelligence

(DRAM,Flash) (LCD Panel) (LED) (PV,EV/Battery)

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Outline

1) LED Industry’s Past & Future Prospects

2) LED For Backlight Application Entered a Mature Market

3) LED Lighting Development in Regions

4) How Apple Change the LED Industry

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LED Industry’s Past & Future Prospects

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LED’s ASP Dramatically Plummeted in 2011~2012

LED chip & package prices in 2H12 showed a slight decline mainly because manufacturers were notmaking profits from price competition. Also, a further price decline would no longer be the way tostimulate the market demand.

0

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

1 Q 1 1

2 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

4 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

2 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

High

Power5630

High Power (100~120LM/W) 5630

LED PKG Price (2011~3Q12)

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

0.0150

0.0200

0.0250

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

45*45 mil 10*23 mil

45*45 mil 10*23 mil

LED Chip Price (2011~3Q12)

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Worldwide LED Package Manufacturer’s Performance

WW Top 10 LED PKG Makers’ Ranking

(Millions of USD)

NO. NAME 2011 2012(F) YoY %

1 Nichia (JP) 2,565

2 Samsung LED(KR) 1,055

3 OSRAM Opto. (EU) 1,046

4 CREE (US) 954

5 LG Innotek (KR) 808

6 Lumileds(US) 680

6 Seoul Semi (KR) 661

7 Everlight (TW) 551

9 Liteon (TW) 424

10 Toyoda Goesi(JP) 362

Backlight

market share

increases

Apple’s orders

Entering

downstream

market

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LED for Backlight Application

Entering a Mature Market

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Large Panel Size & High Resolution

Touch Panel Cause Keypad Demand toDecrease

Increasing Camera Pixel

When Smart Phone Panel Size Gets Bigger and Bigger….

Galaxy S2 Galaxy S3

iPhone 5iPhone 4S

4.3” OLED 4.8” OLED

3.5” IPS4.0” IPS

What is the optimize panel size for smart

phone? No one knows yet, but it seems usinglarger panel is a favorable trend.

What is the optimize panel size?

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LED Backlight Market Value and LED Shipment

LED Shipment %LED Revenue

2012-2016 CAGR -9.5%

M USD

3,951

2,634

23% 27%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

LED Backlight Market Value

TV Mobile Monitor Tablet PC Notebook

34% 30%

15% 19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

LED Shipment in Backlight Market

TV Mobile Monitor Tablet PC Notebook

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LED Lighting Development in Different Region

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Various Kinds of LED Lighting Demand in the World

European countries favor residential and commercial lighting fields.Japan favors replacement market, like lamp, tube light, and ceiling light fields. Asian countries ,i.e. China , India ,Taiwan etc. favor LED streetlight, traffic signal, and commercial

lighting fields.

Replacement Lamp

Replacement TubeCeiling Light

Residential Light

Commercial Light

Residential LightCommercial Light

LED Street LightCommercial Light



LED Traffic LightLED Street Light

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Japan to Ship 29.5 Million LED Lamps in 2012,Performance Stayed Flat

From January to July 2012, Japan has shipped about 15.3 million (+20.6% YoY) LED lamps. The marketpenetration is about 23.4%.

The demand in 2012 is lower than expected, mainly because energy-saving awareness has increased after theearthquake occurred in 2011, causing demand to pick up earlier. Since an LED lamp has an average lifetime of40000 hours, it's unlikely to replace a new lamp in 10 years when a family uses 50 hrs/week. Therefore, LEDinsideestimates that the LED lamp shipment in 2012 merely increases to 29.5 million (+2.6% YoY).

Source: LEDinside, October 2012Source: JELMA, October 2012

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Jan/11 Apr/11 Jul/11 Oct/11 Jan/12 Apr/12 Jul/12

Monthly Lamp Shipment

LED CFL Incandescent Lamp

Thousands

of Units

0

40

80

120

160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LED Lamp Sales in Japan

LED CFL Incandescent Lamp

Millions of units

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Taiwan:Street Light Replacement & Residential LED Lamp Subsidies

Street Light Replacement Proposal

Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C. (MOEA) will carry outthe three main energy-saving programs, "LED Street LightDemonstration Plan" , "LED Street Light EnergyConservation Demonstration Project 2012" and "EnlargingLED Street Light Placement Energy ConservationProject", starting from 2012.

MOEA has planned to invest 2.43 billion NTD and replace326,000 mercury-vapor street lamps with LEDlamps, which would save approximate 0.14 Billion kilowatthours of electricity and 87,500 tons of carbon dioxide.MOEA expects to create 4.5 billon NTD of annualproduction value.

Household LED Lamps Subsidy Program

MOEA has announced to provide subsidies for at leastmillions of lamps, deducting about half the price (200NTD)from a single lamp. The program would cost MOEA 1 billionNTD and is expected to propose in a month'stime, benefiting mainly the LED lamp sector.

Streetlights are being replaced byLED streetlights from 2012

LED Lamps Selling atTaiwan’s Convenience Stores

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Fiscal Subsidies For SSL Productsin 2012/2013

GovernmentSubsidy

30%

ConsumerPrice

Bidding

Price forLuminaire

CorporatePrice

Subsidy

Sales DownstreamMarket

Subsidy support has gone towards application market, but the need for government to stimulateupstream demand still exist in the upstream market.

In 2H12, the annual “SSL Products fiscal subsidies” has been announced. The government would invest1.6 billion RMB in the LED lighting sector, and the subsidies account for 30%-50% of the product prices.

China: Government Subsidies Dominate Market Demand

12

5 5

3 3 3 21 1 1 1 1 1

0

24

6

8

10

12

14

G u a n g d o n g

F u j i a n

J i a n g s u

S h a n g h a i

S i c h u a n

Z h e j i a n g

B e i j i n g

J i a n g x i

L i a o n i n g

S h a n x i

S h a n d o n g

S h a n x i

O t h e r s

Number of Winning CompaniesBy Area

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Introduction of Energy Management Contract (EMC)

EMC model is created for energy saving benefits by using LED lighting.

Operating mechanism: making sure energy saving target, service, guarantee of investment and technologythrough contract. The whole energy saving process is completed by Energy Saving Company (ESCo). Duringcontracted period, ESCo’s returns on investment and profit are paid by energy saving benefit; the project

ownership and management such as equipment maintenance and energy saving test belongs to ESCo duringeach contract period. After the contract period, ESCo should transfer all the energy saving equipments to theclient company for free, as well as train managers and write management guide. Afterwards, the clientcompany will operate on its own, and ESCp takes all the technical and investment risks of energy savingrenovation.

Energy cost Energy cost Energy cost

Before projectimplementation

Project input

& service cost

Client’s

profit

Service

cost

Costs in different stages of EMC projects

After project implementationDuring contracted period

After project implementationAfter contracted period

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Introduction of Build – Transfer (BT) Mode

BT refers to “Build – Transfer”, it is a financing mode that government uses non-governmental capital to

implement basic non-operational facility construction project. BT mode is a converted mode of BOT (Build -Operate – Transfer), the project company takes the project contracting, and transfers to owner afterfinancing, construction and acceptance. The owner pays investor the total investment of the project plusreasonable payback. At present, using BT mode to raise capital for construction becomes a new way of projectfinancing.

Government

Investmentattraction leading

group

ProjectcompanyInvestor

General plan ofproject construction

Financing ConstructionCompletion& transfer

Buy-back

Investing

Establishing

Financing

Loan

Project approval

BT Contract

Proportionallyamortize investor’s

investment andconstruction cost asagreed total price (ormeasured total priceplus reasonablepayback).

Basic process of BT model

Bank or otherfinancial

institution

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LED Lamp Prices Decline to Stimulate Market Demand

LED lamp’s retail prices have dropped by 30~40% and caused the lighting market to expand rapidly.

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Improved LED Performance Reduces Costs

The lumens-per-dollar of high power LEDs are less competitive than those of the medium or low power LEDpackages such as 3014 package or 5630 package, leading to a continual transition of medium or low powerLED from backlight application market to lighting application. LEDinside point out the medium or low power LED products in 2013 are going to be the dominant modulesin the LED lamp and LED tube light markets, where the prices will remain highly price competitive.

USD

$15~17

$4~6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

40W Equiv. Lamp Cost

Others

Assembly

Screw+Glue

Housing

Heat Sink

Optics

AC/DC Driver

LED 1.38

3.01

1.080

3

6

9

12

15

18

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13

KLM/$

LED PKG Price Comparison

Middle Power LED (@120mA)

High Power LED (@ 350mA)

High Power LED (@ 1,000mA)

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LED Lamp Price Projection

40W equiv. LED lamp price is expected to decline steadily, with quarterly 6-8% price erosion

projected, and the sweet point of USD 10 took place in 1H12.

More price erosion is expected to happen on 60W equiv. lamp since it’s a major lamp marketbattleground. More aggressive price strategies and plans are formulating the product, whichexpected to reach USD 10 in 2013.

0

10

20

30

40

50

M-10 N-10 M-11 N-11 M-12 N-12 M-13 N-13

USD

40W & 60W Equiv. LED Lamp Price Trend

40W- Low 60W- Low

60W Equiv. LED LampPrice to Reach Sweet

Point in 2Q13

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Conclusions

Backlight Market:

Request on high resolution panel and patent bring a higher entry barrier. Under this circumstance, that the backlight market is saturated and supply chain is restructuring, variouskinds of strategies would be launched in 2013. LED manufacturers who own patents are more likely tostand out and gain ability to control the market.

Lighting Market:

With improving technology, LED makers will further improve chip brightness and package materials inorder to achieve better luminous flux and cost-efficiency, giving non-Korean vendors better chance to gainmarket share once again. LED makers have adopted vertical integration business model from chip production to module. The entiresupply chain would move towards standardization and scale-up manufacturing that enables capable makersto lead the markets. On the other hand, LED luminaries and system makers rely more on localizedproduction and sales channel will fulfill customized business needs for domestic development.

Industry to Stir Up A Fierce Competition in 2013

Backlight market has left with only a few makers that could survive in the intense patent and brandcompetition, those who are unable to fast enough enter to the lighting sector will be eliminated by themarket.

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LEDforum 2013 China10 th , June, 2013 Guanzhou

LEDforum 2013 Taipei End of October, 2013 Taipei

www.ledinside.com

儲 Roger Chu,

Research Director of LEDinside,TrendForce

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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LEDinside Market Intelligence Service

SilverLighting Market Report / LED Price For Lighting Application USD2,600

Lighting + Backlight Market Report / LED Price For Lighting / Backlight

ApplicationUSD3,300

Gold

Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary

USD 13,200

Worldwide LED Demand Forecast

Worldwide LED Supply ForecastCCFL and LED Backlit TV Cost Analysis

LED Lamp Cost Analysis

LED Industry Price Trend and Forecast

Gold Plus

Gold Member Report

USD16,000Worldwide Top Tier LED Markers’ Movement

Customized / Subject Report

Customized Report By case

Subject Report- Chinese LED Lighting Market Report USD 2,500

Subject Report- European LED Lighting Market Report USD 2,500

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EnergyTrend Market Intelligence Service

PV –Silver Report

Historical Price (On Line)

USD 3,300

Weekly PV Spot / Contract Price With Analysts’

Commentaries

Monthly PV Spot / Contract Price With Analysts’

Commentaries

Quarterly PV Market Information Update and Analysis

PV –Gold Report

PV Industry Supply Forecast

USD 13,200PV Industry Demand Forecast

PV Industry Cost Forecast

PV Makers’ Financial Statement

EV/Battery

Consumer Electronics Product:

USD 3,000

Battery Cell Price Trend

Supply: Cell Maker’s Capacity

Demand: NB & Ultrabook Shipment / Battery Cell Demand

xEV Market: Sales Revenue & Sales Volume

Battery Market Overview and Forecast- Market Trend /

Product Trend

- Consumer Product Application

- xEV Application Market

- ESS Application Market

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LEDinside Silver Member Lighting Market Report

A. Quarterly Regional LED Lighting Market

Quarterly: Macroeconomics, policy and standard, major company’s movement, product technology andtrend in Japan, the US / Europe, China, and Emerging Markets

October: regional lighting market value and market outlook for the next year

- LED Lighting Market Development in Japan

- LED Lighting Market Development in the US / Europe

- LED Lighting Market Development in China

- LED Lighting Market Development in Emerging Markets

B. LED Price Trend and Analysis

LED Package Price Trend in the Lighting Application Market

- Mid Power LED Price Trend- 5630 is to be represented

- High Power LED Price Trend

100lm/W~120lm/W (350mA~1000mA)

120lm/W~140lm/W (350mA~1000mA)

120lm/W~140lm/W (350mA~1500mA)

C. LED Lamp Price Trend And Analysis

LED Lamp Price Tracker in the UK, Germany, the US, Japan, and Korea

- 40 W Equiv. LED Lamp Price

- 60 W Equiv. LED Lamp Price

Release Date: January / April / July /OctoberPrice: USD 2,600Format: PPT PDF / ExcelLanguage: Traditional Chinese / English

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LEDinside Silver Member Lighting + Backlight Market Report

A. LED Backlight Market Trend And Analysis

Quarterly: LED market value and penetration rate forecast, and technology developmentin TV / smart phone / tablet PC / notebook / monitor.

October: Backlight market value and market outlook for the next year

- LED in Smart Phone Market Development And Analysis

- LED in Tablet PC Market Development And Analysis

- LED in Notebook Market Development And Analysis

- LED in Monitor Market Development And Analysis

- LED in TV Market Trend Development Analysis

B. LED Price Trend And Analysis

LED Price Trend And Analysis in TV / Smart Phone / Tablet PC / Notebook / Monitor Application Market

- LED Price In Mobile Market

- LED Price In Notebook / Tablet PC Market

- LED Price in Monitor Market

- LED Price In TV Market

LEDinside Silver Lighting + Backlight Market ReportRelease Date: January / April / July / OctoberPrice: USD 3,300Format: PPT PDF / ExcelLanguage: Traditional Chinese / English

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LEDinside Gold Member Service

Chapter 1: Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary

Market Introduction and Overview

LED Supply Chain

WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast

(Revenue / Unit / Material Type / PKG)

Chapter 2: Worldwide LED Demand Forecast (2010-2016)

(Revenue / Unit / ASP)

WW High Brightness LED for Mobile Application Forecast

WW High Brightness LED for Medium-Large Display Backlight Application

WW High Brightness LED for Lighting Application Forecast

WW High Brightness LED for Automotive Lighting Application Forecast

WW High Brightness LED for Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast

LEDinside Gold Member ReportPrice: USD13,200Format: ExcelRelease Date: Quarterly(February, May, August, November)Language: English

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Chapter 3: Worldwide LED Supply Forecast (2010-2016)

Equipment Maker-- WW MOCVD Vendor's Revenue

Equipment Maker-- WW MOCVD Vendor's Shipment

Chip Maker--LED Chip vendors' MOCVD installation volume in Gan Base

Chip Maker--LED Chip vendors' Epi Wafer volume in Gan Base (wafer size)

Chip Maker--LED Chip vendors' Epi Wafer volume in Gan Base (region)

Pkg Maker--WW LED package revenue

Pkg Maker--LED package vendors' revenue Ranking

Chapter 4: Cost Analysis Compare to Traditional Light Source

LED Lamp Cost Structure-40W Replacement

LED Tube Light Cost Structure- T8 Tube Light Replacement

Monitor BLU Cost Comparison between LED vs CCFL-20" Monitor

Mainstream TV Cost Analysis

TV BLU Cost Appendix


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Chapter 5: Price Forecast in White LED / LED Light Bulb

Sapphire Substrate Price Trend-2" / 4" / 6"

PSS-2" / 4"

LED Chip Price Trend

LED Package Price Trend

40W Equiv LED Light Bulbs Price

60W Equiv LED Light Bulbs Price

European LED Light Bulb Market Strategy

US LED Light Bulb Market Strategy

Japanese LED Light Bulb Market Strategy

Korean LED Light Bulb Market Strategy


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LEDinside Market Intelligence Analysis / Consulting Service

Green Energy Division / TrendFocehttp://www.ledinside.com

http:// www.energytrend.com-----------------------------------------

Roger ChuResearch Director +886-2-77026888

[email protected]

Green Energy Division /TrendForce

http://www.ledinside.comhttp://www.energytrend.com-----------------------------------------

Joanne WuAnalyst

+886-2-77026888 # 972 [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

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