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AS4100Lessons 10,9,8,12,13,3
Setting the World Stage
Intro to Cultural Studies
Terrorism & Force Protection
U.S. Policy
Making Strategy
Security CBTLt Col Wayne Doherty
8 Sep 09
2
Prep for This Class Prepare for Lessons:
3, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13• “Skim” the Security CBT for Lesson 3.
• 8, 9, 10 – Split up
• 12 & 13 – Split up
• Each Cadet responsible for 2 lessons and will lead discussions along with Lt Col Doherty
3
Overview
Stage Setter VIDEO Lessons 10, 9, & 8 discussion
BREAK – GROUP EXERCISE PREP
Execute GROUP EXERCISE Lessons 12, 13 and 3 discussion AF Topic of Your Choice Assignments (Talking Paper/Presentations)
Your World is Changing!
Threats
Challenges
Opportunities
The fundamental need for increased regional, language, and cultural studies training for USAF officers and cadets
The 20th Century
Three competing ideologies• Communism• Fascism• Democracy
Democracy alone remains as the predominant ideology…
… But extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish!
Transnational Issues
- Globalization
- North vs South
- Global War on Terror (GWOT) – OCO
The World Stage
- Religious and Ethnic Factors
-- Religious Conflicts
-- Ethnic Conflicts
7
Holm Center Goals for Regional Studies/Cultural
Awareness
- Exposure to cultures of world regions
- Familiarize with issues and challenges
- American interests in various regions
- Encourage career-long / life-long study
Any other Lesson 9 Comments???
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.
- Thomas Jefferson
Khobar Towers Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, 1996
Terrorism&
Force Protection
Joint Pub. 3-07.2“What is Terrorism?”
The calculated use of violence or threat of
violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or
to intimidate governments or societies in pursuit
of goals that are generally political, religious or
idealogical. —Joint Publication 3-07.2, Joint Tactics,
Techniques, and Procedures for Antiterrorism
Historical Overview Terror in Antiquity: 1st to 14th
Century• Zealots of Judea• The Assassins
14th to 18th Century• French Revolution
Modern Era: The 19th Century• Anarchists• Nationalism
The 20th Century • Irish and Macedonians• World Wars• Cold War
Current state of terrorism
Recent History
https://atlevel1.dtic.mil/at/atl1/domestic/historical2/index.html
“OPEN HYPERLINK ABOVE”
Since 1990s, religious fundamentalism emerged as primary force for terror
Weapons proliferation narrowed the gap between the firepower of the state and dissidents
Recent History
Radical Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr
Violence
Political goal
Psychological impact and fear
Targeting of non-combatants
Key Criteria“We have the right to kill four million Americans- two million of them children…”Suleiman abu Ghaith, al Qaeda spokesman
Guerilla v. Terrorism
Targets Mostly military, police, or political
opponents
State symbols, political opponents,
and the public at large
Intended Impact
Mainly physical attrition of the
enemy
Psychological coercion
Tactics Commando-type operations
Specialized tactics: kidnapping, car
bombs, hijacking, etc.
International Legality
Yes, if follow rules of armed conduct
No
Guerilla Terrorism
Typologies of Terrorism Political: Force governments to
change structure or policies, or
to achieve radical societal
change
Religious: Objectives/actions
divinely guided; often tied to
ethnic and nationalist identities
Social: “Special interest” (i.e.,
animal rights)
2004: Train bombings in Spain; Al Qaeda claims responsibility
Objectives of Terrorism
Attract attention for cause Demonstrate group’s power Show govt’s lack of power Exact revenge Obtain logistical support Cause a govt to overreact
Tactics
Assassination Arson Bombing Hostage taking Kidnapping Hijacking
Seizures
Raids
Sabotage
Threat or
Hoax
Use of WMD
“Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties.” (National Intelligence Council)
22%
3%
8%
1%
56%
1%
7% 2%
Source: MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base, CAO 6 Dec 06
Common Terrorist Tactics
(Jan 1968 – Dec 2006)
Terror Incidents by Tactic
22%
3%
8%
1%
56%
1%
7% 2%
Armed attack
Arson
Assassination
Barricade/hostage
Bombing
Hijacking
Kidnapping
Unconventional/ Other/Unk
In 2005, the 10 most lethal attacks were conducted by radical Islamic extremist suicide bombers.
Improvised explosive device (IED) is the terrorist’s weapon of choice:
Inexpensive to produce Detonation techniques Low risk to the perpetrator Placement/concealment High attention-getting
capacity
Tactics
Asymmetric warfare: A new kind of enemy, a new kind of war…
Symmetric warfare poses too great a risk Asymmetric tactics - a hit and run approach on
soft targets - can affect foreign policy• Oct 1993: Battle of Mogadishu led to
US pullout of Somalia, failure to engage in Rwanda, and heavy reliance on airpower in Balkans
Asymmetry
First articulated by the Reagan Admin. and reaffirmed by every president since:• No concessions to terrorists• Terrorists treated as criminals;
rule of law applies• Maximum pressure placed on
state sponsors
US Terror Policy
Clinton administration added corollary: US will aid other governments’ counter-terrorism efforts
“On September the 11th, enemies of freedom committed an act of war against our country… Either you are with us or
you are with the terrorists.
From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a
hostile regime.”— President George W. Bush, 20 Sep 01
Dept. of Homeland Security established: Third largest cabinet department after DoD and VA
Incorporates existing agencies, including US Coast Guard, Secret Service, and CIS
Coordinates capabilities of 22+ agencies to:• Secure borders, transportation, critical infrastructure• Synthesize/analyze homeland security intelligence• Spearheads domestic counter-terrorism efforts
US Policy Post 9/11
US Military Policy Guiding principles:
• US forces will continue to engage• Force protection will be a major
consideration DoD addresses terrorism from two
distinct perspectives:• Counter-terrorism (offensive)• Anti-terrorism (defensive)
Intelligence critical component for success
Force Protection Force Protection: An integrated
application of offensive/defensive actions that deter, detect, preempt, mitigate, or negate threats against or hazards to Air Force air and space operations and assets, based on an acceptable level of risk (JP 1-02) • Relocation of deployed forces out of
heavily populated areas to an isolated base
• Deployment of floating barriers around warships in high-risk areas
“Asymmetric challenges can arise across the spectrum of conflict thatwill confront US forces in a theater of operations or on US soil.”
(National Intelligence Council)
Future of Terrorism
Terrorism is a dynamic enemy… and is adapting to the challenges posed by developing societies
Groups like Al Qaeda and Hezbollah benefit from and are exploiting globalization, even as they fight against it
Terrorism is becoming more network based, encouraging loosely organized, self-financed organizational structure
Future of Terrorism
International or transnational cooperation among terrorist groups is becoming the norm
WMD proliferation amplifies the danger of broad, network-based terrorism.
Terrorists increasingly display a willingness to use catastrophic violence to cause mass casualties and destruction
C204-28
EXERCISE: Tie Together FP/Terrorism/Policy/Strategy/& Security
C204-29
What was the Significance of the Speech?
Policy Influences Foreign Policy 1776 - 1950
Isolationism thru Containment Deterrent Strategies 1950-89
Massive Retaliation thru Contemporary Containment
Foreign Policies (1989 - ?) Post Containment Era Preemptive Strike Era
U.S. Foreign Policy
The goals and guidelines that shape the conduct of American relations with other nations.
Policy Influences
The Executive Branch
The President
The State Department
The National Security Council (NSC)
The National Security Advisor (NSA)
Policy Influences
The Legislative Branch
Congress can: Declare war Raise and maintain the military Power of the purse Treaty ratification Presidential appointees
Policy Influences The American People
Public opinion Uninformed public Informed public Effective public
Interest groups The press
Foreign Policies
Isolationism Imperialism Pacifism UN Cooperation Containment
Deterrent Strategies
Post-Containment Era
U.S. had to stop Soviet expansion Marshall Plan (1947) Berlin Airlift (1948) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (1949)
Significantly rebuilt Europe Countries able to resist communist expansion
Korea Third World nation stalemated us! Altered U.S. foreign policy…….
Containment
Massive Retaliation Focus on technological and strategic superiority Use nuclear weapons “at a time & place of our
choosing” Launch of Sputnik and ICBM in 1957
America shocked America’s age of innocence was over America changed its deterrent policy once again...
Soviet military capabilities Expanded alliances in Pacific region
ANZUS Pact (1951) Japan (1954)
Tactical nuclear weapons Countered being outnumbered conventionally Main reason USSR kept in check?
Support SE Asia from communism domino theory
Graduated Response
…Graduated Response still relied heavily on nukes
Respond to any level of conflict…
Restructure conventional forces Green Berets and Dual Basing
Reconstruct airlift and sealift
Mutually Assured Destruction No one wins...
Flexible Response
Then comes Vietnam…
Essential Equivalence basic nuclear strategy Soviet nukes bigger and outnumbered ours, but ours
more accurate
Total Force concept to policy Active duty, National Guard, Reserves
Trained nations to fight, loans, foreign aid No Troops
Realistic Deterrence /Nixon Doctrine
Watergate…President Carter…Iranian Hostage Crises
More outspoken about dislike of
communists and USSR…“Evil Empire” Military rebuilt
Increased pay raises New weapon systems
Security Assistance Programs increased Third World help…stop communist assistance
Allies shouldered more responsibility for
own defense
Contemporary Containment/ Reagan Doctrine (1981)
End of cold war…
World started to change in 1989…
Warsaw Pact crumbling Berlin Wall coming down Countries asserting independence from USSR…….
…leads us to today
Post Containment Era / A Strategy of Engagement
To enhance America’s security To bolster America’s economic prosperity To promote democracy and human rights
abroad (Theater Engagement Plans)
President Bush’s “Pre-emptive Strike Doctrine” Signals a new focus by the U.S. on security
“Our Nation’s cause has always been larger than our Nation’s defense. We fight, as we always fight, for a just peace—a peace that favors liberty. We will defend the peace against the threats from terrorists and tyrants. We will preserve the peace by building good relations among the great powers. And we will extend the peace by encouraging free and open societies on every continent.”
President BushWest Point, New YorkJune 1, 2002
Where are we headed in the 21st century?
This is not…just America's fight. And what is at stake is not just America's freedom. This is the world's fight. This is civilization's fight. This is the fight of all who believe in progress and pluralism, tolerance and freedom.
President George W. Bush
Sept 2001
- Ordered the closure of the prison at Guantanamo Bay and a review of our detention and interrogation policy, prohibited the use of torture.
- Appointed Special Envoys for Climate Change, Southwest Asia, the Middle East, Sudan, and a Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- Announced a plan to responsibly end the War in Iraq.- Announced a new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan.- Announced a strategy to address the international nuclear threat.
- Agreed to negotiation of Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty w/ Russia.
- Established a new "U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue".
- Announced new policy steps towards Cuba.
President Obama - Aug 2009
Definitions Doctrine National Objectives Grand Strategy Military Strategy Operational Strategy Battlefield Strategy Influences on the Strategy Process
Transition to Strategy
Policy is guidance that is directive or instructive, stating what is to be
accomplished . Mutable and changes
Objectives and rules of engagement
Policy
The art and science of coordinating the development,
deployment, and employment of military forces to achieve
national security objectives.
Strategy
Doctrine is a statement of officially sanctioned beliefs, warfighting principles, and
terminology that describes and guides the proper use of military forces in support of
national objectives.
How a job should be done Evolves from experience and theory Authoritative, but unlike policy, is not directive
Doctrine
Vital Interest – broad, overriding importance to the survival, safety and vitality of our nation. State is not willing to compromise
on. State is generally willing to go to war
to protect.
National Objectives
National Objectives Major (important) interests - these effect
our national well-being. May use force…not normally necessary.
Peacekeeping Operations Reconnaissance missions in Asia
Peripheral (humanitarian and other) our nation may act because our values demand it.
Response to disasters Human rights violations Environmental protection
National Objectives
Development & use of ALL national power instruments and the coordination of these instruments.
Diplomatic Information Military Economic
Grand Strategy
Strategic Objectives Secure the United States from direct attack. Secure strategic access and retain global freedom of action. Strengthen alliances and partnerships. Establish favorable security conditions.
Current Military Strategy
How We Accomplish Our Objectives Assure allies and friends. Dissuade potential adversaries. Deter aggression and counter coercion. Defeat adversaries.
Current Military Strategy
Operational StrategyThe art and science of planning, orchestrating, and directing military campaigns within a theater of operations to achieve national security objectives. Pg 96
Links the national level concerns of military strategy with battlefield concerns of tactics. Levels of operational strategy
Combined campaigns Joint campaigns Component campaigns
Operational StrategyWhat does it do?
Orchestration of all military efforts in
the theater. Goal is to win the theater war.
Achieve the military objective. Military objective contributes to the
achievement of a political objective.
Operational Strategy
Very dynamic level of operations. Impossible to talk about in general terms.
nuclear war operations other than war conventional war space war information war urban warfare desert war the list goes on......
Battlefield Strategy
National objectives drive the process. Protect/achieve vital national interests.
Grand Strategy incorporates and/or coordinates all the
instruments of national power…not just military. Military Strategy supports national objectives.
Must support higher (Grand) strategy. Operational and Battlefield Strategy must be flexible. Several influences on the strategy process.
Points to Remember…
61
“Air Force Security”
COMSECEMSECCOMPUSECOPSEC
Classified vs. Unclassified-Top Secret / Secret / Confidential-FOUO / National Security Related
Process of denying adversaries information about friendly capabilities and intentions
Consists of measures and controls taken to deny unauthorized persons information derived from telecommunications and to ensure the authenticity of such communications
The component of communications security that results from all measures taken to deny unauthorized persons information of value that might be derived from intercept and analysis of compromising emanations from crypto-equipment and telecommunications systems
The primary objective of this program is to protect the privacy, availability, and integrity of systems and the information they process.
MATCH EACH TERM
62
“Air ForceTopic of Your
Choice”
Personal Advice – Take Time to Say
Thanks (Promotions/Ceremonies/Going
Aways/Etc.)
64
Next Class Prepare for Lesson 11:
International Studies – Africa• Small Groups responsible for 5 minute Briefings• Topics listed on Page 110 of Text (Let’s Split Up)• Corresponding Talking Papers Due as well• Remainder of class split into 3 groups
1. Military Operations in Region2. Department of State Initiatives3. Economic/Other Aid
Blackboard Course Postings• I will post videos and slides BEFORE this class
65
Summary
Stage Setter VIDEO Lessons 10, 9, & 8 discussion
BREAK – GROUP EXERCISE PREP
Execute GROUP EXERCISE Lessons 12, 13 and 3 discussion AF Topic of Your Choice Assignments (Talking Paper/Presentations)
Questions?
“We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.” —President Bush, 20 Sep 01
67
Backup Slides
Al Qaeda exemplifies the current manifestation of violent extremists
Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of Al Qaeda’s political ideology: Quran-based authority governs Liberation of the homelands Liberation of the human being
So how does this fit into Al Qaeda’s objectives??
Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda’s Plan“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad for the sake of God.” -- Osama bin Laden
Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula
Objective 2: Remove secular governments within region Objective 3: Eliminate Israel, and purge Jewish and
Christian influence Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical
significance
“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate
governments in Europe, Africa and Asia.” (SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)
EXERCISE