Licking Valley Rural Electric Cooperative

Corporation2006 Load Forecast

Prepared by:

East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.

Forecasting and Market Analysis Department

July 2006

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Table of Contents

• Introduction and Executive Summary 5

• Narrative16

• Key Assumptions18

• Methodology and Results26– Residential Forecast 31– Small Commercial 36– Large Commercial 38– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 41

• RUS Form 341 44

Page Number

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IntroductionExecutive Summary

Licking Valley Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation (Licking Valley RECC), located in West Liberty, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in eight counties. This load forecast report contains Licking Valley RECC’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.

 Licking Valley RECC and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.

 EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Licking Valley RECC for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Licking Valley RECC. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 18.

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Executive Summary (continued)

The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Licking Valley RECC. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Licking Valley RECC uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of marketing analysis, transmission planning, generation planning, demand-side planning, and financial forecasting.

 

The complete load forecast for Licking Valley RECC is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.

8

Year

ResidentialSales

(MWh)

SeasonalSales

(MWh)

SmallComm.Sales

(MWh)

Public Buildings (MWh)

LargeComm.Sales

(MWh)

OtherSales

(MWh)

TotalSales

(MWh)

OfficeUse

(MWh)%

Loss

PurchasedPower(MWh)

1990 116,932 0 33,048 0 8,183 0 158,163 133 6.8 169,7941991 125,146 0 33,882 0 11,464 0 170,492 173 7.7 184,9911992 127,942 0 34,542 0 13,056 0 175,540 162 7.5 189,9841993 139,946 0 35,715 0 12,708 0 188,369 188 7.5 203,7421994 142,890 0 34,659 0 12,190 0 189,740 235 6.8 203,8851995 151,332 0 37,386 0 12,722 0 201,440 203 7.6 218,2751996 161,854 0 37,501 0 13,892 0 213,247 224 5.5 225,8501997 162,476 0 37,788 0 14,107 0 214,372 208 5.2 226,3721998 164,521 0 38,697 0 14,949 0 218,167 186 4.9 229,6241999 171,308 0 39,026 0 14,467 0 224,801 165 5.4 237,7322000 180,079 0 38,758 0 14,734 0 233,571 177 5.5 247,4122001 182,138 0 39,427 0 13,950 0 235,515 180 5.5 249,5002002 190,388 0 40,516 0 13,499 0 244,403 193 6.8 262,5412003 189,864 0 41,503 0 12,763 0 244,130 189 7.0 262,6622004 194,494 0 42,922 0 13,077 0 250,493 182 6.6 268,5102005 207,008 0 44,959 0 13,394 0 265,361 199 5.8 282,0322006 203,249 0 44,435 0 13,428 0 261,112 187 6.0 277,9782007 208,414 0 45,162 0 13,494 0 267,071 187 6.0 284,3172008 212,405 0 45,789 0 13,586 0 271,780 187 6.0 289,3272009 216,719 0 46,453 0 13,687 0 276,860 187 6.0 294,7302010 220,790 0 47,110 0 13,782 0 281,682 187 6.0 299,8612011 224,209 0 47,753 0 13,869 0 285,831 187 6.0 304,2742012 228,552 0 48,409 0 13,964 0 290,924 187 6.0 309,6932013 232,811 0 49,073 0 14,061 0 295,945 187 6.0 315,0342014 236,531 0 49,726 0 14,151 0 300,408 187 6.0 319,7822015 240,139 0 50,377 0 14,239 0 304,755 187 6.0 324,4062016 244,121 0 51,038 0 14,327 0 309,486 187 6.0 329,4392017 248,040 0 51,717 0 14,416 0 314,173 187 6.0 334,4262018 252,283 0 52,402 0 14,505 0 319,191 187 6.0 339,7642019 256,630 0 53,089 0 14,595 0 324,314 187 6.0 345,2142020 261,678 0 53,779 0 14,688 0 330,144 187 6.0 351,4162021 266,618 0 54,479 0 14,783 0 335,880 187 6.0 357,5182022 271,405 0 55,175 0 23,139 0 349,719 187 6.0 372,2412023 276,082 0 55,866 0 23,228 0 355,175 187 6.0 378,0452024 281,203 0 56,555 0 23,317 0 361,076 187 6.0 384,3222025 285,570 0 57,240 0 23,405 0 366,215 187 6.0 389,789

2006 Load ForecastLicking Valley RECC

MWh Summary

Table 1-1

9

Winter Summer

Season

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

PurchasedPower(MWh)

Load Factor(%)

1989 - 90 48.2 1990 34.4 1990 169,794 40.2%1990 - 91 40.9 1991 36.5 1991 184,991 51.6%1991 - 92 42.7 1992 35.2 1992 189,984 50.8%1992 - 93 45.1 1993 41.0 1993 203,742 51.5%1993 - 94 59.0 1994 40.0 1994 203,885 39.4%1994 - 95 49.8 1995 45.6 1995 218,275 50.1%1995 - 96 61.8 1996 43.0 1996 225,850 41.7%1996 - 97 54.9 1997 46.5 1997 226,372 47.1%1997 - 98 52.1 1998 46.8 1998 229,624 50.3%1998 - 99 57.5 1999 52.1 1999 237,732 47.2%1999 - 00 62.9 2000 50.7 2000 247,412 44.9%2000 - 01 64.7 2001 51.4 2001 249,500 44.0%2001 - 02 61.8 2002 53.3 2002 262,541 48.5%2002 - 03 67.8 2003 51.4 2003 262,662 44.2%2003 - 04 70.4 2004 50.2 2004 268,510 43.5%2004 - 05 72.2 2005 55.8 2005 282,032 44.6%2005 - 06 68.3 2006 54.4 2006 277,978 46.5%2006 - 07 73.6 2007 54.8 2007 284,317 44.1%2007 - 08 74.6 2008 55.4 2008 289,327 44.3%2008 - 09 76.2 2009 56.4 2009 294,730 44.2%2009 - 10 77.5 2010 57.3 2010 299,861 44.2%2010 - 11 78.6 2011 58.0 2011 304,274 44.2%2011 - 12 79.8 2012 58.7 2012 309,693 44.3%2012 - 13 81.4 2013 59.7 2013 315,034 44.2%2013 - 14 82.6 2014 60.5 2014 319,782 44.2%2014 - 15 83.8 2015 61.2 2015 324,406 44.2%2015- 16 84.8 2016 61.9 2016 329,439 44.4%2016 - 17 86.3 2017 62.9 2017 334,426 44.2%2017 - 18 87.7 2018 63.8 2018 339,764 44.2%2018 - 19 89.1 2019 64.7 2019 345,214 44.2%2019-2020 90.4 2020 65.5 2020 351,416 44.4%2020-2021 92.2 2021 66.7 2021 357,518 44.3%2021-2022 95.1 2022 69.1 2022 372,241 44.7%2022-2023 96.5 2023 70.0 2023 378,045 44.7%2023-2024 97.8 2024 70.9 2024 384,322 44.9%2024-2025 99.4 2025 72.0 2025 389,789 44.7%

Licking Valley RECC2006 Load Forecast

Peaks Summary

Table 1-1 (continued)

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Executive Summary (continued)

Overall Results

• Total sales are projected to grow by 1.6 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to a 2.0 percent growth projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.

• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 1.9 and 1.4 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2.

• Load factor will remain steady at approximately 44% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.

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Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)

TimePeriod Residential

Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Total Sales

1995-2000 3.5% 0.7% 3.0% 3.0%2000-2005 2.8% 3.0% -1.9% 2.6%2005-2010 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2%2010-2015 1.7% 1.3% 0.7% 1.6%2015-2020 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 1.6%2020-2025 1.8% 1.3% 9.8% 2.1%

5 Year Growth Rates

Table 1-2Licking Valley RECC2006 Load Forecast

Summary of Sales Growth

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Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025

1.6%

1.2%

2.8%

1.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Residential Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Total Sales

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Figure 1-2Peak Demand Forecast Winter and Summer

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Su

m o

f S

ub

sta

tio

ns

Pe

ak

De

ma

nd

(M

w)

Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast

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Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

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Narrative Licking Valley RECC MembersDemographic Information

• There is an average of 2.39 people per household.

• 54% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.

• 19% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle and tobacco most prevalent.

• 28% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.

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Narrative (continued) Counties Served

Licking Valley RECC presently serves members in 8 Kentucky counties.

Figure 1-4

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Other Counties (4)

Wolfe County

Morgan County

Magoffin County

Breathitt County

Number of Members

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Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates

• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.

• Average residential retail rates will change from 8.088 cents/kWh in 2005 to 9.489 cents/kWh in 2025.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Economic

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

1990 540,824 -0.5% 190,058 2.5% 144,054 3.4% 9.0% -3.5% $25,743 -1.6% $8,910 1.1% $16,475 1.7%

1991 544,407 0.7% 192,903 1.5% 144,936 0.6% 12.0% 33.8% $25,411 -1.3% $9,096 2.1% $16,707 1.4%

1992 547,802 0.6% 193,612 0.4% 145,141 0.1% 11.3% -5.4% $25,828 1.6% $9,402 3.4% $17,163 2.7%

1993 551,087 0.6% 195,843 1.2% 148,381 2.2% 10.0% -12.1% $25,735 -0.4% $9,416 0.2% $17,087 -0.4%

1994 553,065 0.4% 196,987 0.6% 150,867 1.7% 8.9% -10.8% $25,741 0.0% $9,522 1.1% $17,217 0.8%

1995 555,088 0.4% 201,264 2.2% 155,081 2.8% 9.1% 2.0% $25,511 -0.9% $9,584 0.6% $17,265 0.3%

1996 554,460 -0.1% 199,145 -1.1% 154,776 -0.2% 9.5% 4.7% $25,641 0.5% $9,674 0.9% $17,447 1.1%

1997 554,363 0.0% 202,287 1.6% 157,169 1.5% 8.2% -13.5% $26,087 1.7% $10,069 4.1% $18,163 4.1%

1998 554,044 -0.1% 201,723 -0.3% 159,377 1.4% 6.8% -17.7% $26,377 1.1% $10,284 2.1% $18,562 2.2%

1999 553,832 0.0% 204,002 1.1% 159,825 0.3% 6.9% 2.2% $26,516 0.5% $10,479 1.9% $18,921 1.9%

2000 552,926 -0.2% 202,132 -0.9% 158,377 -0.9% 6.4% -7.6% $26,390 -0.5% $10,737 2.5% $19,418 2.6%

2001 551,463 -0.3% 202,586 0.2% 159,095 0.5% 6.6% 3.9% $26,200 -0.7% $11,012 2.6% $19,968 2.8%

2002 554,005 0.5% 201,554 -0.5% 157,185 -1.2% 7.2% 8.3% $26,520 1.2% $11,137 1.1% $20,102 0.7%

2003 554,238 0.0% 203,166 0.8% 155,124 -1.3% 8.3% 15.7% $26,624 0.4% $11,109 -0.2% $20,044 -0.3%

2004 555,666 0.3% 205,488 1.1% 159,456 2.8% 8.7% 4.2% $26,654 0.1% $11,237 1.2% $20,223 0.9%

2005 557,768 0.4% 207,099 0.8% 162,464 1.9% 8.1% -6.6% $26,767 0.4% $11,330 0.8% $20,312 0.4%

2006 559,879 0.4% 208,737 0.8% 165,519 1.9% 7.7% -4.1% $26,654 -0.4% $11,434 0.9% $20,422 0.5%

2007 560,254 0.1% 209,187 0.2% 166,360 0.5% 7.8% 0.3% $26,767 0.4% $11,562 1.1% $20,638 1.1%

2008 559,983 0.0% 209,116 0.0% 166,228 -0.1% 7.6% -2.2% $26,831 0.2% $11,694 1.1% $20,882 1.2%

2009 559,782 0.0% 208,980 -0.1% 165,972 -0.2% 7.5% -1.4% $26,870 0.1% $11,829 1.2% $21,132 1.2%

2010 559,699 0.0% 208,770 -0.1% 165,581 -0.2% 7.6% 1.6% $26,899 0.1% $11,969 1.2% $21,385 1.2%

2015 560,660 0.0% 208,498 0.0% 165,074 -0.1% 7.8% 0.5% $26,970 0.1% $12,716 1.2% $22,680 1.2%

2020 562,110 0.1% 210,100 0.2% 168,064 0.4% 7.4% -1.1% $26,993 0.0% $13,601 1.4% $24,196 1.3%

2025 564,514 0.1% 212,857 0.3% 173,208 0.6% 7.4% 0.1% $26,999 0.0% $14,557 1.4% $25,786 1.3%

2030 567,274 0.1% 215,400 0.2% 177,954 0.5% 7.4% 0.0% $27,001 0.0% $15,500 1.3% $27,324 1.2%

Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.

Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.

Regional SummaryEast Economic Region History and Forecast

2006 Load Forecast

Unemployment Rate

Regional Income

Population Labor ForceTotal

EmploymentAverage Real

Wages

Forecast

Long-Term Forecast

Actual

Real Per Capita Income

EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served

Figure 1-5

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

11

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20

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16

20

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20

18

20

19

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

Sh

are

(%

)

Licking Valley RECC’s market share will increase for the forecast period.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources

Figure 1-6

Education5%

Construction8%

Manufacturing4%

Retail & Service7%

Retirement51%

Other21%

Mining4%

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Key Assumptions (continued)Appliance Saturations

• .

• .

• Room air conditioner saturation is declining slightly due to customers choosing central air conditioning systems.

• .

• Appliance efficiency trends are accounted for in the model. The data is collected from Energy Information Administration, (EIA). See Figure 1-7.

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Key Assumptions (continued)Saturation Rates Non HVAC Appliances

• Microwave Oven 98%

• Electric Range 93%

• Dishwasher 33%

• Freezer 53%

• Clothes Dryer 93%

• Personal Computer 42%

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Key Assumptions (continued)Figure 1-7

Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

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08

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09

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10

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11

20

12

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20

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20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Eff

icie

nc

y R

ati

ng

Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)

Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)

Central Air (SEER)

Room Air (EER)

Water Heating (EF)

All of the projections are very similar to what was used in the 2004 Load Forecast. However, the 2004 Load Forecast assumption was just below 8 by 2024 whereas this update shows the trend continuing above 8.

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005

25

Key Assumptions (continued)Weather

• Weather data is from the Jackson weather station.

• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.

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Methodology and ResultsIntroduction

This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Licking Valley RECC as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.

 

A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Licking Valley RECC experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.

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Table 1-3

YearkWh Purchased

And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss % Loss

Annual

Load

Factor

Average

Number Of

Consumers

Miles

Of

Line

Consumers

Per Mile

Cost Of

Purchased Power

Cents

/ kWh

1993 203,741,731 188,368,667 15,184,788 7.5% 51.6% 13,732 1,856 7.4 $8,237,491 4.0

1994 203,885,338 0.1% 189,739,713 0.7% 13,910,240 6.8% 39.5% 14,024 1,858 7.5 $8,421,993 4.1

1995 218,274,854 7.1% 201,439,880 6.2% 16,631,548 7.6% 49.9% 14,364 1,900 7.6 $7,698,840 3.5

1996 225,849,685 3.5% 213,247,208 5.9% 12,378,763 5.5% 42.5% 14,686 1,876 7.8 $7,671,400 3.4

1997 226,372,320 0.2% 214,372,320 0.5% 11,791,738 5.2% 49.4% 14,844 1,885 7.9 $7,659,562 3.4

1998 229,624,090 1.4% 218,167,062 1.8% 11,271,253 4.9% 54.0% 15,282 1,900 8.0 $7,752,306 3.4

1999 237,731,730 3.5% 224,797,025 3.0% 12,769,785 5.4% 48.4% 15,614 1,913 8.2 $8,468,223 3.6

2000 247,411,637 4.1% 233,571,310 3.9% 13,662,849 5.5% 46.3% 15,928 1,931 8.2 $9,126,917 3.7

2001 249,500,245 0.8% 235,515,320 0.8% 13,805,282 5.5% 45.6% 16,126 1,957 8.3 $9,767,380 4.0

2002 262,540,536 5.2% 244,403,320 3.8% 17,944,521 6.8% 50.2% 16,348 1,976 8.3 $10,060,505 3.8

2003 262,662,061 0.0% 244,130,425 -0.1% 18,343,063 7.0% 47.3% 16,597 1,991 8.3 $10,547,351 4.0

2004 268,509,875 2.2% 250,492,566 2.6% 17,834,826 6.6% 44.0% 16,794 2,002 8.4 $11,869,283 4.4

2005 282,031,855 5.0% 265,361,000 5.9% 16,471,675 5.8% 45.9% 16,921 2,006 8.4 $14,648,561 5.2

6.2% 3.9

69.6

70.1

61.0

62.4

59.7

63.4

Average

Licking Valley RECC Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak

Demand

(MW)

45.1

59.0

50.0

52.3

60.7

48.6

56.1

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Table 1-4

Year kWh Sales%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

1993 139,945,550 0 35,715,297 12,707,820 0 0

1994 142,890,328 2.1% 0 34,659,065 -3.0% 12,190,320 -4.1% 0 0

1995 151,331,928 5.9% 0 37,386,272 7.9% 12,721,680 4.4% 0 0

1996 161,854,261 7.0% 0 37,500,943 0.3% 13,892,004 9.2% 0 0

1997 162,476,402 0.4% 0 37,788,490 0.8% 14,107,428 1.6% 0 0

1998 164,521,455 1.3% 0 38,696,763 2.4% 14,948,844 6.0% 0 0

1999 171,304,489 4.1% 0 39,025,660 0.8% 14,466,876 -3.2% 0 0

2000 180,079,027 5.1% 0 38,757,947 -0.7% 14,734,336 1.8% 0 0

2001 182,138,087 1.1% 0 39,427,077 1.7% 13,950,156 -5.3% 0 0

2002 190,388,313 4.5% 0 40,515,739 2.8% 13,499,268 -3.2% 0 0

2003 189,864,117 -0.3% 0 41,502,976 2.4% 12,763,332 -5.5% 0 0

2004 194,494,081 2.4% 0 42,921,845 3.4% 13,076,640 2.5% 0 0

2005 207,008,183 6.4% 0 44,958,537 4.7% 13,394,280 2.4% 0 0

2 Year 8,572,033 4.4% 1,727,781 4.1% 315,474 2.4%

5 Year 5,385,831 2.8% 1,240,118 3.0% -268,011 -1.9%

10 Year 5,567,626 3.2% 757,227 1.9% 67,260 0.5%

Average Annual Change

Licking Valley RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway Lighting

Public

Authorities

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Table 1-5

Year Consumerskwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo. Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo.

1993 12,805 911 0 925 3,218 2 529,493 0 0

1994 13,096 909 0 926 3,119 2 507,930 0 0

1995 13,445 938 0 917 3,398 2 530,070 0 0

1996 13,760 980 0 922 3,389 4 289,417 0 0

1997 13,918 973 0 922 3,415 4 293,905 0 0

1998 14,340 956 0 938 3,438 4 311,434 0 0

1999 14,641 975 0 969 3,356 4 301,393 0 0

2000 14,917 1,006 0 1,007 3,207 4 306,965 0 0

2001 15,096 1,005 0 1,026 3,202 4 290,628 0 0

2002 15,302 1,037 0 1,042 3,240 4 281,235 0 0

2003 15,513 1,020 0 1,080 3,202 4 265,903 0 0

2004 15,697 1,033 0 1,093 3,272 4 272,430 0 0

2005 15,810 1,091 0 1,107 3,384 4 279,048 0 0

10 Year Avg. 237 15 19 -1 0 -25,102

5 Year Avg. 179 17 20 35 0 -5,584

2 Year Avg. 149 36 14 91 0 6,572

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consumers 291 349 315 158 422 301 276 179 206 211 184 113

kWh/ month -1 29 42 -7 -17 19 31 -1 31 -17 13 59

Annual Changes I n Licking Valley's Residential Class

Licking Valley RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway LightingPublic Authorities

30

Methodology and Results (continued)

The preliminary forecast was presented to Licking Valley RECC staff, and reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Licking Valley RECC staff. Input from EKPC and Licking Valley RECC results in the best possible forecast.

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Methodology and Results (continued)Residential Forecast

Residential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Licking Valley RECC’s customer forecast.

The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Licking Valley RECC’s energy forecast.

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Table 1-6

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(kWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 11,931 817 116,9321991 12,149 218 1.8 858 42 5.1 125,146 8,214 7.01992 12,455 306 2.5 856 -2 -0.3 127,942 2,796 2.21993 12,805 350 2.8 911 55 6.4 139,946 12,004 9.41994 13,096 291 2.3 909 -2 -0.2 142,890 2,944 2.11995 13,445 349 2.7 938 29 3.2 151,332 8,442 5.91996 13,760 315 2.3 980 42 4.5 161,854 10,522 7.01997 13,916 156 1.1 973 -7 -0.7 162,476 622 0.41998 14,340 424 3.0 956 -17 -1.7 164,521 2,045 1.31999 14,641 301 2.1 975 19 2.0 171,308 6,787 4.12000 14,917 276 1.9 1,006 31 3.2 180,079 8,771 5.12001 15,096 179 1.2 1,005 -1 -0.1 182,138 2,059 1.12002 15,302 206 1.4 1,037 31 3.1 190,388 8,250 4.52003 15,513 211 1.4 1,020 -17 -1.6 189,864 -524 -0.32004 15,697 184 1.2 1,033 13 1.2 194,494 4,630 2.42005 15,810 113 0.7 1,091 59 5.7 207,008 12,514 6.42006 15,959 149 0.9 1,061 -30 -2.7 203,249 -3,759 -1.82007 16,099 140 0.9 1,079 18 1.6 208,414 5,165 2.52008 16,252 153 1.0 1,089 10 1.0 212,405 3,991 1.92009 16,404 152 0.9 1,101 12 1.1 216,719 4,314 2.02010 16,559 155 0.9 1,111 10 0.9 220,790 4,071 1.92011 16,717 158 1.0 1,118 7 0.6 224,209 3,419 1.52012 16,875 158 0.9 1,129 11 1.0 228,552 4,343 1.92013 17,030 155 0.9 1,139 11 0.9 232,811 4,260 1.92014 17,178 148 0.9 1,147 8 0.7 236,531 3,720 1.62015 17,326 148 0.9 1,155 8 0.7 240,139 3,608 1.52016 17,481 155 0.9 1,164 9 0.8 244,121 3,981 1.72017 17,645 164 0.9 1,171 8 0.7 248,040 3,920 1.62018 17,806 161 0.9 1,181 9 0.8 252,283 4,242 1.72019 17,961 155 0.9 1,191 10 0.8 256,630 4,347 1.72020 18,117 156 0.9 1,204 13 1.1 261,678 5,048 2.02021 18,271 154 0.9 1,216 12 1.0 266,618 4,940 1.92022 18,424 153 0.8 1,228 12 1.0 271,405 4,787 1.82023 18,569 145 0.8 1,239 11 0.9 276,082 4,676 1.72024 18,714 145 0.8 1,252 13 1.1 281,203 5,122 1.92025 18,853 139 0.7 1,262 10 0.8 285,570 4,367 1.6

Licking Valley RECC2006 Load Forecast

Residential Summary

33

Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers

0

50

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1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

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Figure 1-9Licking Valley RECC

Residential MWh Usage, History and Forecast

0

5,000

10,000

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Jul-09

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Jul-10

MW

h

Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage

36

Methodology and Results (continued)Small Commercial Forecast

Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-7.

37

Table 1-7

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

AnnualAverage(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 906 36 33,0481991 917 11 1.2 37 0 1.3 33,882 834 2.51992 923 6 0.7 37 0 1.3 34,542 660 1.91993 926 3 0.3 39 1 3.1 35,715 1,173 3.41994 926 0 0.0 37 -1 -3.0 34,659 -1,056 -3.01995 917 -9 -1.0 41 3 8.9 37,386 2,727 7.91996 922 5 0.5 41 0 -0.2 37,501 115 0.31997 922 0 0.0 41 0 0.8 37,788 287 0.81998 941 19 2.1 41 0 0.3 38,697 909 2.41999 969 28 3.0 40 -1 -2.1 39,026 329 0.82000 1,007 38 3.9 38 -2 -4.4 38,758 -268 -0.72001 1,026 19 1.9 38 0 -0.2 39,427 669 1.72002 1,041 15 1.5 39 0 1.3 40,516 1,089 2.82003 1,080 39 3.7 38 0 -1.3 41,503 987 2.42004 1,093 13 1.2 39 1 2.2 42,922 1,419 3.42005 1,107 14 1.3 41 1 3.4 44,959 2,037 4.72006 1,122 15 1.4 40 -1 -1.5 44,435 -523 -1.22007 1,137 15 1.3 40 0 0.0 45,162 727 1.62008 1,152 15 1.3 40 0 0.0 45,789 627 1.42009 1,168 16 1.4 40 0 0.0 46,453 664 1.52010 1,184 16 1.4 40 0 0.0 47,110 657 1.42011 1,200 16 1.4 40 0 0.0 47,753 642 1.42012 1,216 16 1.3 40 0 0.0 48,409 656 1.42013 1,232 16 1.3 40 0 0.0 49,073 664 1.42014 1,248 16 1.3 40 0 0.0 49,726 653 1.32015 1,263 15 1.2 40 0 0.0 50,377 651 1.32016 1,279 16 1.3 40 0 0.0 51,038 661 1.32017 1,295 16 1.3 40 0 0.0 51,717 679 1.32018 1,312 17 1.3 40 0 0.0 52,402 685 1.32019 1,328 16 1.2 40 0 0.0 53,089 687 1.32020 1,344 16 1.2 40 0 0.0 53,779 689 1.32021 1,360 16 1.2 40 0 0.0 54,479 701 1.32022 1,376 16 1.2 40 0 0.0 55,175 696 1.32023 1,391 15 1.1 40 0 0.0 55,866 690 1.32024 1,405 14 1.0 40 0 0.0 56,555 690 1.22025 1,420 15 1.1 40 0 0.0 57,240 684 1.2

Licking Valley RECC2006 Load Forecast

Small Commercial Summary

38

Methodology and Results (continued)Large Commercial Forecast

Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Licking Valley RECC currently has 4 customers in this class and is projected to increase to 5 customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-8.

39

Table 1-8

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

Annual Average(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 2 4,092 8,1831991 2 0 0.0 5,732 1,641 40.1 11,464 3,281 40.11992 2 0 0.0 6,528 796 13.9 13,056 1,592 13.91993 2 0 0.0 6,354 -174 -2.7 12,708 -348 -2.71994 2 0 0.0 6,095 -259 -4.1 12,190 -518 -4.11995 2 0 0.0 6,361 266 4.4 12,722 531 4.41996 4 2 100.0 3,473 -2,888 -45.4 13,892 1,170 9.21997 4 0 0.0 3,527 54 1.6 14,107 215 1.61998 4 0 0.0 3,737 210 6.0 14,949 842 6.01999 4 0 0.0 3,617 -121 -3.2 14,467 -482 -3.22000 4 0 0.0 3,684 67 1.8 14,734 267 1.82001 4 0 0.0 3,488 -196 -5.3 13,950 -784 -5.32002 4 0 0.0 3,375 -113 -3.2 13,499 -451 -3.22003 4 0 0.0 3,191 -184 -5.5 12,763 -736 -5.52004 4 0 0.0 3,269 78 2.5 13,077 313 2.52005 4 0 0.0 3,349 79 2.4 13,394 318 2.42006 4 0 0.0 3,357 8 0.2 13,428 33 0.22007 4 0 0.0 3,374 17 0.5 13,494 67 0.52008 4 0 0.0 3,396 23 0.7 13,586 91 0.72009 4 0 0.0 3,422 25 0.7 13,687 101 0.72010 4 0 0.0 3,445 24 0.7 13,782 95 0.72011 4 0 0.0 3,467 22 0.6 13,869 88 0.62012 4 0 0.0 3,491 24 0.7 13,964 95 0.72013 4 0 0.0 3,515 24 0.7 14,061 97 0.72014 4 0 0.0 3,538 22 0.6 14,151 90 0.62015 4 0 0.0 3,560 22 0.6 14,239 88 0.62016 4 0 0.0 3,582 22 0.6 14,327 88 0.62017 4 0 0.0 3,604 22 0.6 14,416 89 0.62018 4 0 0.0 3,626 22 0.6 14,505 90 0.62019 4 0 0.0 3,649 22 0.6 14,595 90 0.62020 4 0 0.0 3,672 23 0.6 14,688 93 0.62021 4 0 0.0 3,696 24 0.6 14,783 95 0.62022 5 1 25.0 4,628 932 25.2 23,139 8,356 56.52023 5 0 0.0 4,646 18 0.4 23,228 89 0.42024 5 0 0.0 4,663 18 0.4 23,317 89 0.42025 5 0 0.0 4,681 18 0.4 23,405 88 0.4

Licking Valley RECC2006 Load Forecast

Large Commercial Summary

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41

Methodology and Results (continued)Peak Day Weather Scenarios

Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Licking Valley RECC’s peak demands. Table 1-9 and Figure 1-10 reports the impact of extreme weather on system demands.

42

Table 1-9

Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures

Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme

Degrees 10 -3 -12 -17 -25 Degrees 94 98 100 104

Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%

Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years

Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW

Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme

2006 54 62 66 73

2006 - 07 63 74 81 85 92 2007 55 62 66 74

2007 - 08 64 75 82 86 93 2008 55 63 67 75

2008 - 09 65 76 84 88 95 2009 56 64 68 76

2009 - 10 66 78 85 90 97 2010 57 65 69 77

2010 - 11 67 79 87 91 98 2011 58 66 70 78

2011 - 12 68 80 88 92 99 2012 59 67 71 79

2012 - 13 70 81 90 94 101 2013 60 68 72 80

2013 - 14 71 83 91 95 103 2014 60 69 73 81

2014 - 15 72 84 92 97 104 2015 61 69 74 82

2015- 16 72 85 93 98 106 2016 62 70 74 83

2016 - 17 74 86 95 100 107 2017 63 71 76 84

2017 - 18 75 88 96 101 109 2018 64 72 77 85

2018 - 19 76 89 98 103 111 2019 65 73 78 86

2019-2020 77 90 99 104 112 2020 66 74 79 87

2020-2021 79 92 101 106 115 2021 67 75 80 89

2021-2022 82 95 104 109 118 2022 69 78 82 91

2022-2023 83 97 106 111 119 2023 70 79 83 92

2023-2024 84 98 107 113 121 2024 71 80 84 93

2024-2025 86 99 109 114 123 2025 72 81 86 95

Licking Valley RECCPeak Day Weather Scenarios

43

Figure 1-10

Licking Valley RECC - Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks

0

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120

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Pea

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W

Actual Winter Normal Winter 10% Case - Winter Actual Summer Normal Summer 10% Case - Summer

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RUS Form 341

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Form 341Form 341