Low Carbon Policy in Controversy- after Fukushima & Durban
Impacts of Fukushima & DurbanR d ti t ti l 2012 2020 2050Reduction potential: 2012, 2020, 2050 What reduction target means?
China-Japan Climate Policy Dialogue 2012Beijing 06 January 2012Shuzo NishiokaShuzo NishiokaInstitute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Procedure to new integrated policy after Fukushima & Durban
-2011・Basic Energy Plan (2010)
with 9 new nuclear in 2020 ・Basic Law on GW
Countermeasures to Diet2020 R d (i t i ) i by METI
2011
・2020 Roadmap (interim) inCentral Council of Envt.
・New Government policy :Less nuclear dependent society20113.11 Fukushima
New Government policy :Less nuclear dependent society・Enhance saving energy and renewable・Distributed system for robust energy supply・Reform electricity management
12.17 Durban ・New full participation framework from 2050, decided until 2015・Japan: withdrawal from Kyoto legally-binded target after 2013
2011.12.21Basic policy for Ene-Env by
Central Council of Envt.⇒Low carbon plan aimto 2050(80%) & 2030,
Council of NaturalRes. & Energy⇒Revise Basic Energy
Japan Atomic Energy Commission⇒Cost validation of y
Cabinet Office
2012 spring Integrated plan
( ) ,⇒2020 target options・Global contribution・Bi-lateral OffsetLow carbon cities
・Demand side policy・New energy with RE& less nuclear・innovation policy
electricity sources
Integrated plan,concludedIn summer
・Low carbon cities・Smart community
innovation policy
New integrated policy of Energy and Envt. 2
hort Term: Kyoto Target can be cleared with a bit effort in following 2 yearsBefore Fukushima: 25% reduction scenario (Dec 2010)Before Fukushima: 25% reduction scenario (Dec.2010)
• Domestic reduction only
• Assumption: Plus 9 Nuclear in 2020 plus 14 in 2030 over existing 54Assumption: Plus 9 Nuclear in 2020, plus 14 in 2030 over existing 54
• Mainly reduction in housing, office and transportation
• ⇒10-25% reduction: Technically possible with cost of 1-2% of GDP
4
A 80% i i d ti b 2050 ill t l l diff t i t f t d It ill b
Japanese GHG reduction target (2050 80%, 2020 25% from 1990
100020
An 80% emission reduction by 2050 will create a largely different society from today. It will be
critical to strategically move forward under mid-term 2020 and 2030 targets that take into account
this eventual 80% reduction.
800
1000
16
18
20
)
ス排
出量
GDP and Greenhouse Gases Coupling ⇒ Decoupling
ions
al
ent)
en)
60012
14
DP
(兆円
室効果ガ
ス
CO
2eq)
温室効果ガス
▲15% (90年比)GH
GE
mis
sC
O2
equi
va GHG
▲15%(Compared to 1990 level) P
(trill
ion
ye
400
6
8
10
の実
質G
O2・
温室
(億
トン
C
▲20% (90年比)
GDP
▲15% (90年比)
▲25% (90年比)
CO
2 an
d G
on to
ns o
f C (Compared to 1990 level)
s R
eal G
DP
▲20%(Compared to 1990 level)▲25%(Compared to 1990 level)400
200
2
4
6
日本
日本
のC
O (
▲80%
Oil CrisisOnset of Financial Crises
Rapid EconomicJapan’s Asset-Inflated
Japa
n’s
(100
mill
io
Japa
n’
80% Reduction
00
2
00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20 30 40 50
日 80%(90年比)
(100歳)
CO2(80歳)(60歳)(40歳)(20歳) (0歳)
Rapid Economic Growth
Bubble Economy (Compared to the 1990s)
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20
1) ( )内の年齢は、各年に生まれた人が2050年を迎えたときの年齢
2) GDPの将来値は国立環境研究所 脱温暖化2050プロジェクト A・Bシナリオの想定値2) Future GDP values are assumed values based on scenarios A and B from the NIES Low Carbon
Society Research Project 2050 5
Historical and projected GHG emissions R d ti t i 2020GHG i i t d
160業務部門
(07年比32~49%)
▲15% ▲20% ▲25%to 2007
Reduction rate in 2020GHG emissions trends Commercial
120
140
(07年比 32 49%)
家庭部門(07年比33
~50%)
16%10%
17%10%
19%11%
5% 7% 8%
33%19%
40%24%
50%31%
14% 17% 19%19% 25% 31%
Industry
Residential
Residential
0 =
1
100
32%19%
40%25%
49%31%
13% 15% 18%
28%27%
31%30%
34%32%
1% 1% 1%
7%7%
1%1%
1%1%
Commercial
Transport
Non energyn in
199
0
60
80
産業部門(07年比16~19%)
非エネ部門
▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
18%13%
19%13%
22%14%
7% 1% 1%0% 0% 0%Non-energy
to 1990Industry
Industry
TransportEm
issi
on
20
40 運輸部門(07年比28~34%)
非エネ部門(07年比 +7~1%)※
18% 19% 22%5% 6% 8%
6%14%
16%8%
30%3%
20% 23% 27%
1%20%
11%11%
25%2%
19% 22% 27%
Industry
Residential
Commercial
Non-energy
p
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
19% 22% 27%
19%18%
22%21%
25%23%
1% 1% 2%
20%20%
25%25%
26%26%
0% 0% 0%
Transport
Non-energyLeft: total reductionRight: upper: reduction within the sector
lower: reduction due to energy sector6
Projected greenhouse gas emissions [2020/2030]Projected greenhouse gas emissions [2020/2030]
• 25% reduction of GHG in 2020 is technically possible • Demand side (household, office, transportation) reduction is the key
7179 79 78202
179 155148
188
188
198
198▲16% ▲20%
1 , 261
1 , 346 1 , 358
1 , 286
1 , 398
1 , 317 1 , 061 1 , 011 946
1 , 393
1 , 307 834 769 706
1 , 500
算)
非エネルギー部門Non-energy sector
CO
2)
206 237232
270224
271220
217
265257
236
228
227
171165
211
210
68
7178 71
5046
42
70
162155
154
152
▲20%▲25%
▲34%▲39%
▲43%1, 000
万ト
ンC
O2換
算
エネルギー転換部門
運輸部門
Energy conversion sectorTransportation sector
ns o
f ton
s of C
127 158 174172
181 162114 103 90
182 163
74 61 49
164206 232 224
165 152133
220
11396
73
165153
118108
97
3630
27
145144
500
ス排
出量
(百
万
業務部門
家庭部門
Offie sector
Household sector
issi
ons (
mill
ion
482 467 456 420 451 444 398 390 374452 446
342 328 316
0
温室
効果
ガス
産業部門
基準年排出量
Tf Ti
Industry sector
Standard annual volume of emissionsLo Mm H
im
enhou
se g
as e
mi
固定 参照 ▲25%
①
▲25%
②
▲25%
③
固定 参照 対策
下位
対策
中位
対策
上位
1990 2000 2005 2008 2020 2030( 参考)
Technology fixed
Technology im
provement trend
Technology fixed
Technology im
provement trend
C f h i f
ow order m
easures
Middle order
measures
gh order easures
olum
e of
gre
en
7Note: 2020 25% (1): case including around 10% of international contribution and sinks; 25% (2): case including around 5% of international contribution and sinks; 25% (3): case including no international
contribution and sinks. 2030 lower order to high order measures: the emissions volume for 2030 is done assuming that the measures that have been carried out in order to reduce emissions toward the 25% reduction in 2020 will continue to be carried out in 2012 through 2030.
1990 2000 2005 2008 2020 2030( 参考)d d
Case of changing macro-frames for all sectors
(Reference)
Vo
7
IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?
Specialist WG discussions incorporating the results of interviews with concerned parties concluded that it is possible for Japan to achieve its reduction targets by building up existing technologies expected to be used in countermeasures.
1,26
11,
344
1,35
51,
282
076
8
1,500 <Demand Sector Image><Demand Sector Image>・Popularize refrigerating machines that use natural
refrigerants, etc.ent)
1,0
1,01
949
1,000
eq)
g ,
・40-50% improvement of passenger vehicle efficiency(ownership basis; including EV/HV)・EV/HV: 1 out of every 2 new car salesO
2 E
quiv
ale
500
百万
tCO
2e
y・Car sharing utilization rate: Increase from 0.3% to 1%
of urban population・Eco-driving in practice: 20 to 30%
n of
tons
CO
G排
出量
(百
・Ensure all newly built homes and buildings use advanced insulation and energy saving designs/features
・50 to 70% penetration of high-efficiency water heater in h h ldio
ns (M
illio
n
0
990年
000年
005年
008年
▲15
%▲
20%
▲25
%
GH
G households・30 to 40% penetration of building energy control systems ・10 to 20% penetration of PV power in households
St dil l i t t f t b t il bl t h lGH
G E
mis
si
0 0 5 819 20 20 20 ▲ ▲ ▲実績 2020年
・Steadily popularize state of art best-available-technology in the world
・Fuel conversion to natural gases
G
Actual2020
1990
2000
2005
2008
8
F rther dis ssions are s hed led to be held on the q antitati e erifi ation of poli
IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?
Further discussions are scheduled to be held on the quantitative verification of policy effectiveness, the supply structure for low-carbon technologies and the existence of additional burdens resulting from policy implementation.
700
・ Compared to 2005: PV power 24x to 35xWind power 10x
<Supply Sector Image><Supply Sector Image>50
858
858
855
7
544
531
517600
700
) Wind power 10xGeothermal power 3x
・ Ratio of renewable energy to primary energy supply: 10% to 12%
400
500
換算百万
kL
ガス
Gas
supply: 10% to 12%
・Expand utilization of nuclear power under basic premise of securing the safety (construction of 9 new plants)200
300
給(石
油換
石炭
apan
t)
Coa
l
new plants)
・Significant reduction of oil consumption caused by efficiency improvement and energy conversion in all end-use sectors
100
200
ー国
内供給
石油
Sup
ply
in J
l Equ
ival
ent
Oil
・Decrease of coal consumption resulting from reduction of coal thermal power generation by moving forward with the shift to natural gas
I ll 1 i i l h l l
0
990年
2000
年
2005
年
2008
年
▲15
%▲
20%
▲25
%
次エ
ネル
ギar
y E
nerg
y on
KL
of O
il
0 0 5 8
・Install at most 1 unit in coal thermal power plant(in case of ▲25%)
1 2 2 2 ▲ ▲ ▲
実績 2020年
一次
Actual2020
Prim
a(M
illio
199
2000
2005
2008
9
Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense
• As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the
and energy reduction expense
investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced.
<Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense>
Energy saving investment through
2020100
150
Additi ln) 2020
Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies
In the case of device with 10 year lifespan
58 78 96 50
100 Additional investment(’11 – ’20 total)
illio
n Ye
n
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
E d ti E d ti
-36 -43 -50
-35 42-50
0 Energy reduction expense(’11 – ’20 total)E d i
Cos
t (Tr
i
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 50 trillion
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 49 trillion
35 -42 -49-100
25% reduction
Energy reduction expense(’21 – ’30 total)20%
reduction15%
reduction
10
yen(25% reduction)
yen(25% reduction)
10
J d t i t 6 t 10 t illi i dditi l f d t hi ▲15% t
Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society
Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to ▲25% by 2020. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with this spending.
9 7
12[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target]
/ Yea
r) Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion yen per annum across all sectors of
i t1-2% of GDP
1 50
0.9 0.4
0.5 7.8
9.7
8
10 その他
電力系統
その他新エネ発電
(Tril
lion
Yen
/ societyOther
Electric Power SystemsOther New Energy Generation
1 11 01.1 0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.6
0.7
0.2 5.8
4
6太陽光発電
自動車
業務用建築物・機器
men
t Am
ount
Create Green Markets
PVAutomobilesCommercial Buildings / Equipment
1 0 1.5 2.0 0.6 0.8
1.0 0.5
0.8 1.1
0.6
1.0 0.8
2
4家電製品
家庭用給湯器
住宅
tiona
l Inv
estm
Grow Green
Home ElectronicsResidential Water HeatersHousing
0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5
0▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
産業
Add
it
Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee
Grow Green Markets
15% Reduction
Industrial
20% Reduction
25% Reduction
・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture low-carbon products.・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.
Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee
11
Impacts of Nuclear Loss (~2020)Impacts of Nuclear Loss (~2020)
• More than half of 62 Nuclear will be out of operation
• Increase CO2 by substituting nuclear by fossil fuel (0 5% CO2/oneIncrease CO2 by substituting nuclear by fossil fuel (0.5% CO2/one Nuclear)
• More demand side saving of energy and electricity : How much effort?
St th i l t H ff ti ?• Strengthening regulatory measures: How effective?
12
A f l d ft l h b i l d d t dd 9 l t b 2020 d hi
IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?
• As for nuclear power, a draft proposal has been included to add 9 new plants by 2020 and achieve a utilization ratio of 85% (has averaged 75% since 1990).
• Each new reactor will reduce Japan’s CO2 emissions by approximately 5 million tons, while every 1% increase in the utilization ratio of new plants will lead to a 3 million ton reduction.
8000
10000
W)
2010年2009年
年
2020
●●Outlook for Nuclear Power in the LongOutlook for Nuclear Power in the Long--term Energy Supplyterm Energy Supply--Demand ForecastDemand Forecast
(*)
●●Relationship between the Plan for Additional Nuclear Relationship between the Plan for Additional Nuclear Power Capacity and CO2 EmissionsPower Capacity and CO2 EmissionsCO2 emissions will rise 66 million tons if Japan’s nuclear power utilization ratio remains at 75% and only 2 new plants are built. This would mean a 5.2% increase over the benchmark for 1990.
kW)
2010 (*)
20092010 (*)
4000
6000
子力発電(
万k 2005年
2001年1998年1997年1994年
・ Utilization Ratio 85%・New plants 9・Total Output 61.43 MM kW
-98MM tons of CO2(▲7.8% over 1990)
Pow
er (1
0,00
0 k
200520011998
19971994
0
2000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
原子 1994年
1990年実績値
・Utilization Ratio 75%・New Plants 9・Total Output 61.43MM kW
・Utilization Ratio 85%・New Plants 2・Total Output 51.60MM kW
+30MM tons of CO2(*) Years appearing in the legend indicate years for which the Advisory Committee
+40MM tons of CO2
Nuc
lear
P 19941990Results
・Utilization Ratio 75%・New plants 2
( 2.4% increase over 1990)( ) Years appearing in the legend indicate years for which the Advisory Committee
on Energy and Natural Resources has formulated a long-term forecast for the energy supply-demand balance
●●Utilization Ratio of Nuclear Power PlantsUtilization Ratio of Nuclear Power Plants
( 3.2% increase over 1990)
% % % % 4% % 2% %
100%p・Total Output 51.60MM kW
+66MM tons of CO2( 5.2% increase over 1990)
[when reducing CO2 emissions by 25%]73
%74
%74
%75
%77
% 80%
81%
81 84 80%
82 81%
73%
60% 67
% 72%
70%
61%
60% 66
%
40%
60%
80%
[when reducing CO2 emissions by 25%]
・Utilization Ratio 66%・48.85MM kW
2009
0%
20%
1990 1995 2000 2005
Plan to add nuclear power generation and fluctuations in utilization ratio will play a key role. 13
Plausible Nuclear assumption after FukushimaPlausible Nuclear assumption after FukushimaⅠ.原子力発電運転停止に関わる影響分析
①Before Fukushima ②After Fukushima
62 plant(including 9 new)
31 plant(no new, scrap after 40 year lifetime)
⇒ ⇒++
【北海道】泊1 2 3 【電源開発】大間【日本原電】敦賀
1 2 3 4
【関西】高浜1 2 3 4
74 75 84 89 91 0985 69 86
※ 本想定は電力中央研究所(2011)「原
子力利用の停滞は電気料金にどの程度影響するか?」における「新設・建て替え中止」シナリオに準じて設定。
(including 9 new) year lifetime)
【東京】東通1 2
【東北】東通1 2【関西】美浜
1 2 3【東京】柏崎刈羽
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
【 】
74 75 84
【東北】
70 72 76
85 69 86
05
【関西】大飯1 2 3 4
【東京】福島第一1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
【東北】女川 1 2 3
【北陸】志賀1 278 79 91 92
【東北】浪江・小高85 90 93 94 90 96 97
84 95 01
【東京】福島第二1 2 3 4
【中国】上関1 2
【九州】玄海
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
【中国】島根1 2 3 71 74 76 78 78 79
93 05
73 88
【九州】川内
【九州】玄海1 2 3 4
75 97
82 83 85 87
9380【日本原電】東海第二
2020年現役
2020年退役
現在建設中断
現在着工準備中
78【九州】川内1 2 3
2020年 日本の原子力発電所分布
【四国】伊方1 2 3
【中部】浜岡3 4 5 6
77 81 94
84 85 ※1 : 各図の中の数字は運転開始年を表す。※2 : ピンク色は昨年度RMにおいて2020年までの運転開始を想定した発電所。※3 : 美浜1号(50年)、敦賀1号(48年)については寿命延伸認可を考慮。87 93 04
78
14
Ⅰ.原子力発電運転停止に関わる影響分析
Possible reduction by strengthening policyPossible reduction by strengthening policy
Increase of CO2 from substituting nucleartechnology deployment
CO2 emission increases 11% without planed nuclear in 2020. But 25% reduction may possible by strengthening policy in conservation and acceleration of technology deployment
2020 emission (mil tCO2eq)
1,200
1,400
Base year (1990) emission
%% 114%4% Base:62 nuclear (incl. new 9)
Increase of CO2 from substituting nuclearby fossil fuel burned electric power generation
(2%)
2020 emission (mil.tCO2eq)
1,000
トンCO
2換算
)
225
%5% 11 ( )
revised: 31(no new construction, scrap 40 year lifetime )
Strengthening policy(9%)
(2%)
600
800
排出
量(百
万ト
■ saving ・ Experience in 2011summer (saved 15% electric power)⇒continuation of effort ⇒10% saving of energy service demand in household and office⇒reduction of 25 illi tCO2 2%
400
室効
果ガ
ス排 25million tCO2 =2%
■ Policy・ to enhance early attainment of new fuel efficiency
0
200
2020
年温
室
ma r
standard of cars and promoting selection of efficient car by introducing Eco-points etcs. and eco-drive manner
・high energy conservation standard setting in housing and building (visualization subsidisey
Bef
ore
Fuku
shi m
31 n
ucle
ar building (visualization, subsidise,
With
pol
icy
15
Summer 2011Summer 2011::1616--14% saving electric power consumption14% saving electric power consumptionⅡ.削減目標達成に向けた対策深堀の可能性
In Tohoku and Tokyo Electric Power area, 16% and 14% ave. reduction attained compared with 2010
●Demand track of Tohoku and Tokyo Electric Power Co.
120,000東北電力(2011年) 東北電力(2010年) 東京電力(2011年) 東京電力(2010年)
Demand10000kWh
80 000
100,000
)
Tokyo
2010
10000kWh
60,000
80,000
電力
需要
(万kW
h2011
40,000
電
Tohoku
201020,000
week
2010
2011
0第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週 第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週 第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週 第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週 第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週 第5週 第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週 第1週 第2週 第3週 第4週
3月 4月 5月 6月 8月7月 9月
(出典) 電力系統利用協議会資料より作成
week
month 16
Ⅰ.原子力発電運転停止に関わる影響分析
Suggested component of electric generation in 2020Suggested component of electric generation in 2020・・20302030
12 000
Retirement of nuclear can be covered by demand conservation and renewables
Generation of Electricity0 1billion kWh
10,000
12,000
h)
conservation 省エネ
0.1billion kWh
Renew
6 000
8,000 その他
再生可能エネ発電
量(億
kWh
renewable
再エネ
Renew
F il
4,000
6,000
火力発電
発電
電力
量 Fossil
2,000原子力発電
ma
発
ma
Nuclear
0
With
Pol
icy
lf N
ucle
ar
ore
Fuku
shim
With
pol
icy
lf N
ucle
ar
ore
Fuku
shim
20052020
W
Hal
Befo
2030
W
Hal
Befo
17
Long term target (2050 80%)Long-term target (2050 80%)
• Achievability depend on how Japan draw its future vision
18
Possibility on 80% reduction in 2050Possibility on 80% reduction in 2050Ⅰ.原子力発電運転停止に関わる影響分析
Without nuclear, we have to depend much on renewable energy and CCS (Carbon Dioxide
Capture and Storage).
Possibility depend on how we design Japanese future. Service oriented society can achieve 80%
d ti ith d ti CCS b t i d t i t d i t d f i CCS
1 600600
Primary energy supply(million ton OEq)
GHG emission(million ton CO2eq)
reduction with domestic CCS but industry oriented society needs foreign CCS
1,200
1,400
1,600
非エネ
500
600
地熱 1990 emissionHydroNuc Non energy
Energy shift
600
800
1,000非エネ
CCS
エネ転300
400水力
原子力
新エネ ▲80
%
NGEnergy shift
Transport
0
200
400運輸
業務
家庭
200
新 ネ
バイオマス
天然ガス
oilOfficeResidentindustry
‐400
‐200
0 家庭
産業
0
100 石油
石炭
MIJ ShareSBMade in sharingService
coal CCS
2005 MIJ SB Share2005 MIJ SB ShareMIJ ShareSBade
JapansharingService
Brand
Vision of Society in 2050Vision of Society in 2050 19
2050 scenario of Japanese society2050 scenario of Japanese societyⅠ.原子力発電運転停止に関わる影響分析
Road map committee draw 5 Scenarios of Japanese future concerning industry and society
Desirable way for growth where to produceD l t
Economic Growth /cap
DvelopmentNIES Scenario
Intelligence cente
1.6%Economic Growth
risk
Intelligence cente
1.8%
1 4%
IndustryGrowth
Globalize
Intern’lcompetition
Made in Japan
Service brand1.4%
1.1%
serviceIndependencyGlobalize
NationalizeNaturalresource
Resource self- feed
0.1%
Slow Financial crisis
Service sharing
Economycrisis
20
Ⅰ.原子力発電運転停止に関わる影響分析
GDP(GNP) growth by ScenarioGDP(GNP) growth by Scenario
2050年の社会像のあり方次第で、 2020、2030年においても、社会経済状況は大きく変化し得る。
MIJ, 159160
180
2030 premise
Plan before Fukushima
A
R&D, 148SB, 141
120
140
005
年=
100)
2020 premiseGDP(GNP)Growth
BRI, 117
100
120
民)総
生産
(20Growth
2005=100
Share, 78
60
80
国内
(民
20
40
01970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 21
III. What the “80% reduction society” would look like in 2050?III. What the “80% reduction society” would look like in 2050?
・In the 80% reduction society in 2050, demand for high-temperature heat from the industrial sector and long-distance logistics from the transport sector will preferentially and strategically utilize fossil fuels.
・The residential and commercial sector power sector as well as passenger vehicles and short・The residential and commercial sector, power sector as well as passenger vehicles and short-distance logistics will need to be zero emission.
運輸 運輸1200
1500
400
500
万ト
ン
万ト
ンui
vale
nt
uiva
lent
Transport Transport
Energy conservation prioritized
Low-carbon energy prioritized
民生
民生
運輸
運輸民生
運輸
600
900
200
300
O2換
算百
万
油換
算百
万
40% Reduction 80% Reduction Compared to 1990
ns o
f Oil
Equ
s of
CO
2 E
quTransport Transport
TransportResidential/Commercial
Residential/C i l
Residential/Commercial
産業産業
民生
産業産業
運輸
0
300
0
100
2005 2050 2005 2050
CO
石油
Mill
ion
ton
Milli
on to
ns
TransportIndustrial Industrial Industrial
Industrial
Commercial
2005 2050 2005 2050
終エネルギー消費量 CO2排出量Final Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions
Source: Compiled based on preliminary calculations from the snapshot model of the Low-Carbon Society Research Project 2050(*Preliminary calculation representing one possible scenario if the 80% reduction target for 2050 is met) 22
Mid-term reduction policy (2020, 2030 ~25%)
Final aim=Contribution to climate stability (2050 △80%)
・ tentatively, no international obligation
・due responsibility in the near future (2020 more than 25%?)
⇒how it should be? Equity?
・Smooth transition to long-term target*
Balance between international and domestic reduction
Reduction abroad
B l i J h l i d i・By applying Japanese technology, investment and assistance
・Q: Japanese technology still strong? e.g.. RE Smart Grid in Germany, China,, *,
・Bilateral offset credit: (CDM applicable?)
・Research cooperation: e g ARNLCD**・Research cooperation: e.g., ARNLCD**
Domestic reduction target
・What for? Integrate short-/mid-term issues in long-term target of LC-SocietyWhat for? Integrate short /mid term issues in long term target of LC Society
・Synergy for energy security (energy demand reduction, distributed system, S-D integration)
・Guiding industry to long-term transition to green economy & investment
・Guiding society fit to low carbon future (Infrastructure, lifestyle)
・ Avoiding employment friction and keeping international competitive strength of industry 23
10th ASEAN Plus Three Environment Ministers Meeting
A proposal for establishing theAsia Research Network for Low CarbonAsia Research Network for Low Carbon
Development (ARNLCD)
Dr. Shuzo Nishioka
Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Secretary-General, International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet)
24
How ?How ?
H ?H ?How ?How ?
25
Input to PolicyInput to Policy Institutional Knowledge
Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD)Contribution from
International p yp y((G8/G20 UNFCCC G8/G20 UNFCCC ))
gSharing
International Organisations, etc
Gov
RIRI
UNEP
UNESCA
LCS‐RNet
SATREPS
GovGov
UNESCAP
ADB
JST/JICA
APN
COE
COE
RIRI
Steering GroupSecretariatJICA
KOICA
CLEAN
GGGICOE
COE COERIRI
KOICA
USAIDEtc
GGGI
EUEtc
COECentre of Excellence
RIResearch
RIResearch
Gov
InstituteInstitute
Government
26
Low Carbon Asia ProjectResearch Institutions/ researchers’ network
h d di ti di tl i LCS li kiwho dedicating directly in LCS policy making process
Rizaldi BOER MikikoK i
Mohamad Bin SA’ELALMalaysia
Ho Chin SIONGMalaysia
Sirintornthep TOWPRAYOON
Thailand
Indonesia KainumaJapan
Developed Countries Energy‐Intensive
Lock ins in
Bundit
YutakaMATSUZAWA
Japanions per capita
Lock‐ins in Development
Damaging theBundit LIMMEECHOKCHAI
Thailand
p
GHG emissi
Low Carbon World
Damaging the Economy and Natural SystemDeveloping
Countries
Leapfrog‐
Jiang KEJUNChinaHak MAO
p gdevelopment
ChinaHak MAOCambodia
27
Dialogue between Policy makers and Researchers in ASEAN countries (2010- )ASEAN countries (2010 )
Min. of Natural Resources and Environment
Thailand Greenhouse Gas M t
University of Hanoi
VietNumVietNum
ManagementOrganization
ThailandThailandMinistry of Environment
LCS‐RNet Secretariat/IGES
y
Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment
Indian Institute of
Ministry of Environment
CambodiaCambodia
Ministry of EnvironmentMalaysia Iskandar Source : WEO 2009
Indian Institute of Management, etc
Bogor Agricultural
Ministry of Environment
IndonesiaIndonesiaUniversity of Technology
yAuthorityMalaysiaMalaysia
Source : WEO 2009
Bogor Agricultural University
University of Technology Malaysia 28
A proposal for establishing the
Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD)
by research organisations dedicating to LCD policy formationR ti l I d t t th A i ’ f d t l d t i d it i f l tiRationale: In order to strengthen Asia’s fundamental and sustained capacity in formulating
science-based policies for low-carbon development, and to carry out “leapfrog” development in Asia for global climate stabilisation, launching a network called the “Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development” should be considered.
Mechanism: A platform for knowledge sharing and capacity building of in-country researchers, composed of research communities deeply involved in low-carbon development policy processes. Active researchers in-country will work together with Japanese researchers on practical matters not reports for the bookshelfon practical matters—not reports for the bookshelf.
Objective: To strengthen the scientific base for LCD policies by proactively exchanging the knowledge rooted in the region between policy makers and researchers.
Characteristics: A self-independent autonomous research network operated throughCharacteristics: A self independent, autonomous research network, operated through
voluntary initiatives by researchers in each country.
Organisation: A network of COEs (Centers of Excellence) designated as country focal points. Managed by a steering group and secretariat. g y g g p
Funding: Contributions are expected not only from donor countries but also from international organizations and from ASEAN countries themselves.
Action Schedule: After agreed at the ASEAN+3 EMM, preparatory arrangements will be initiated for its launch by 2013.
29
A 80% i i d ti b 2050 ill t l l diff t i t f t d It ill b
Japanese GHG reduction target (2050 80%, 2020 25% from 1990
100020
An 80% emission reduction by 2050 will create a largely different society from today. It will be
critical to strategically move forward under mid-term 2020 and 2030 targets that take into account
this eventual 80% reduction.
800
1000
16
18
20
)
ス排
出量
GDP and Greenhouse Gases Coupling ⇒ Decoupling
ions
al
ent)
en)
60012
14
DP
(兆円
室効果ガ
ス
CO
2eq)
温室効果ガス
▲15% (90年比)GH
GE
mis
sC
O2
equi
va GHG
▲15%(Compared to 1990 level) P
(trill
ion
ye