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LPEM FEUI 2014-02 Institute for Economic
and Social Research
Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia
www.solopos.com
Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture
Industries: Could They Continue to Develop?
I Kadek Dian Sutrisna Artha1 dan Uka Wikarya2
Executive Summary
Industri manufaktur Indonesia memiliki potensi untuk berperan sebagai
leading sector penguatan perekonomian, karena berkaitan dengan sektor
lain, dan bernilai tambah signifikan. Studi ini bertujuan (1) Melakukan analisis
data historis; serta (2) Melakukan proyeksi atas indikator industrial terpilih.
Objek kajian meliputi sub-sektor industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT), alas
kaki, serta furnitur, dalam periode pengamatan 1990 - 2012.
Ketiga sub-sektor dihadapkan pada permasalahan umum meliputi (1)
Keterbatasan industri bahan baku dan penolong; (2) Kelemahan teknologi;
(3) Keterpusatan ekspor pada beberapa komoditas dan negara tujuan; serta
(4) Ketidaksesuaian standar produk. Peningkatan 1% PDB dunia diperkirakan
Editor :
Jayu Pramudya
Setting :
Dian Purnamasari
September 2014
www.lpem.org
ketiga sub-sektor sebesar 0.08%. Kenaikan pendapatan per kapita riil
secara domestik sebesar 1% berasosiasi dengan pertumbuhan 0,42%.
Rekomendasi untuk sub-sektor TPT meliputi (1) Pemberdayaan industri
hulu, seperti produsen fiber, rayon, poliester, dan serat alam berbahan non-
kapas; (2) Pengetatan aturan peremajaan mesin; (3) Penyediaan dukungan
dana investasi; serta (4) Penjaminan kesinambungan pasokan energi.
Rekomendasi untuk sub-sektor alas kaki adalah (1) Peninjauan kembali
larangan impor kulit dari Tiongkok dan pengkajian wacana pembatasan
ekspor kulit; serta (2) Pemantapan koordinasi tripartit. Rekomendasi bagi sub-
sektor furnitur berupa (1) Minimalisasi hambatan institusional; (2) Pengawasan
pembalakan liar, dan pembatasan eskpor
Kepala Kajian Makroekonomi dan Energi LPEM ( [email protected] )
Executive Summary
Indonesia’s manufacturing industry has the potential to act as leading sector in
strengthening the economy, because it is linked to other sectors and has significant value-
added. This study aims to (1) perform historical data analysis; and (2) make projections
over the chosen industrial indicators. The object of the study covers the industrial
subsectors of textile and textile products (Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil/TPT), footwear, and
furniture, in observation period of 1990-2012.
The three subsectors are faced with general issues including (1) lack of raw-
materials and auxiliary industries; (2) technological weaknesses; (3) exports that are
concentrated in some commodities and destination countries; and (4) discrepancy in
product standards. An increase in world’s GDP by 1% is expected to increase GDP in the
three subsectors by 0.08%. A rise in real per capita income by 1% domestically will
associate with 0.42% of growth.
Recommendations for TPT subsector include (1) empowerment of upstream industries,
such as fiber, rayon, polyester, and non-cotton natural fiber producers; (2) stricter rules of
machinery refurbishment; (3) provision for the support of investment funds; and (4)
assurance for uninterrupted supply of energy. Recommendations for footwear subsector
are (1) reevaluation of import ban on Chinese leather and assessment of the plan to
restrict exports of leather; and (2) consolidation of tripartite coordination.
Recommendations for furniture subsector are (1) minimization of institutional barriers; (2)
monitoring of illegal loggings and restricting exports of timber; (3) assessing the plan for
Exports Buffer Agency (Badan Penyangga Ekspor); and (4) improvement of labor
regulations.
LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research
Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia
1 Director of LPEM ([email protected]) 2 LPEM Head of Macroeconomic and Energy Studies ([email protected])
BR
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www.lpem.org
2014-02
LP
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FEU
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September 2014
Editor :Jayu Pramudya
Setting :Dian Purnamasari
LPEM FEUI L P E M P O L I C Y B R I E F
Pendahuluan
Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, termasuk
negara - negara berkembang diperkirakan akan
tumbuh lebih cepat di tahun 2014 dibanding
tahun 2014 (IMF, 2013). Indonesia yang
mencatatkan pertumbuhan 5,3% di tahun 2013
diharapkan mengalami percepatan pertum-
buhan menjadi 5,5% di tahun 2014. Harapan
tersebut masih dibayangi oleh berbagai
permasalahan seperti pelemahan nilai tukar
rupiah, serta peningkatan inflasi dan tingkat suku
bunga. Defisit neraca pembayaran akibat
melambungnya impor merupakan faktor yang
diyakini memberi sumbangsih signifikan dalam
memunculkan masalah tersebut. Praktis, pe-
nyeimbangan neraca perdagangan merupakan
keniscayaan agar proyeksi pertumbuhan
Indonesia urung terhambat. Upaya penguatan
ekspor sebenarnya menghadapi indikasi
tanggapan positif dari pelaku usaha, ditilik dari
pergeseran investasi luar negeri dari sektor tersier
dan investasi domestik dari sektor primer,
keduanya menuju sektor sekunder di industri
manufaktur. Industri manufaktur dalam hal ini
diyakini memiliki potensi untuk berperan sebagai
leading sector penguatan perekonomian, me-
ngingat sifatnya yang memiliki keterikatan luas
dengan sektor lain, dan memberikan nilai
tambah secara material bagi produk dengan
memanfaatkan faktor produksi secara optimal.
Penentuan keabsahan asumsi akan ber-
pengaruh langsung terhadap keakuratan
proyeksi. Faktor - faktor fluktuatif seperti trend,
siklus, dan pergerakan musiman akan turut
diamati sebagai faktor yang berpengaruh. Objek
kajian studi ini meliputi sub-sektor industri Tekstil
dan Produk Tekstil (TPT), alas kaki, serta furnitur.
Ketiga sub-sektor tersebut cenderung mendekati
karakteristik padat karya, sehingga akan
memberikan sumbangsih besar dalam
penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan jika dapat
dikelola secara efektif. Secara kuantitatif, ketiga
sub-sektor tersebut dianalisis berdasar data
historis kuartalan antara periode 1990 - 2012.
Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi
dan Masyarakat
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia
Permasalahan Umum
Meskipun memiliki kekhasan masing -
masing, ketiga sub-sektor cenderung dihadap
kan pada permasalahan umum industri nasional.
Secara internal, permasalahan tersebut meliputi
(1) Keterbatasan jumlah dan kemampuan industri
dasar yang diperlukan sebagai penyedia bahan
baku dan bahan penolong; (2) Kelemahan pada
penguasaan teknologi, aktivitas penelitian dan
pengembangan; (3) Keterpusatan ekspor pada
beberapa komoditas dan negara tujuan saja;
serta (4) Ketidaksesuaian standar produk dengan
ketentuan yang dipersyaratkan. Industri nasional
tengah menghadapi pula berbagai masalah
eksternal, meliputi (1) Ketidaktersediaan
infrastruktur transportasi dan energi; (2) Birokrasi
yang tidak berpihak dan insentif dari pemerintah
yang kurang menarik; (3) Ketiadaan lembaga
keuangan yang menyediakan pembiayaan
secara spesifik untuk masing - masing sub-sektor
dengan tingkat bunga bersaing; serta (4)
Inefektivitas komunikasi antara industri dengan
pusat penelitian dan pengembangan industrial.
Berdasarkan pengaruh kondisi makro
ekonomi, ditemukan bahwa nilai produksi industri
manufaktur lebih dipengaruhi oleh lingkungan
domestik dibanding lingkungan global. Untuk
setiap pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB)
agregat sebesar 1%, PDB yang disumbangkan
industri manufaktur akan meningkat lebih pesat
sebesar 1,3%. Adapun ketika PDB dunia
meningkat sebesar 1%, pertumbuhan PDB industri
manufaktur diperkirakan hanya meningkat
sebesar 0,11%. Sub-sektor industri TPT, alas kaki,
dan furnitur memiliki keterkaitan yang lebih
inelastis terhadap PDB dunia, dibanding industri
manufaktur. Peningkatan 1% PDB dunia
diperkirakan hanya akan meningkatkan PDB sub-
sektor TPT, alas kaki, dan furnitur sebesar 0.08%.
Kenaikan pendapatan per kapita riil secara
domestik sebesar 1% juga hanya berasosiasi
dengan pertumbuhan PDB sub-sektor
bersangkutan sebesar 0,42%. Tugas mengawal
penguatan ketiga sub-sektor tersebut, secara
2 Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture Industries: Could They Continue to Develop?
Introduction
World economic growth, including that of
developing countries, is predicted to grow faster in 2014
than it did in 2013 (IMF, 2013). Indonesia, which
recorded a 5.3% growth in 2013, is expected to
experience an acceleration of growth into 5.5% in 2014.
The expectation has been overshadowed by various
problems such as the weakening of rupiah, as well as
increases in inflation and interest rates. Balance of
payments deficit due to soaring imports is the factor
believed to have provided significant contribution to the
emergence of the problems. Practically, balancing the
trade balance becomes a necessity in order that
Indonesia’s growth projections will not be hampered.
Efforts to strengthen exports have actually faced an
indication of positive responses from businesses,
judging from the shift in foreign investment from
tertiary sector and in domestic investment from primary
sector, both move towards secondary sector in
manufacturing industry. Manufacturing industry in this
case is believed to possess the potentials to act as the
leading sector in economic strengthening, given its
nature of broad engagement with other sectors and
providing material value-added to products by optimally
utilizing factors of production.
Determining the validity of assumption will directly
influence the accuracy of projection. Fluctuating factors
such as trends, cycles, and seasonal movement will also
be observed as influential factors. The objects of this
study include the industrial subsectors of textile and
textile products (Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil/TPT),
footwear, and furniture. The three subsectors tend to
have characteristics close to labor-intensive, thus
providing enormous contribution to job creation if
effectively managed. Quantitatively, the three
subsectors are analyzed based on quarterly historical
data in the period between 1990-2012.
General Issues
Despite having distinct characteristics from one
another, all three subsectors tend to be faced by the
general issues in national industries. Internally, those
issues cover (1) limited number and capacity of basic
industries needed as providers of raw and auxiliary
materials; (2) weaknesses in the mastery of technology
and research and development activities; (3) exports
that are concentrated only in some commodities and
destination countries; and (4) discrepancy between
product standards and required qualifications. The
national industries are also facing various external
issues, including (1) unavailability of transport and
energy infrastructure; (2) unsupportive bureaucracy and
unattractive incentives from the government; (3)
absence of financial institutions which provide specific
financing for each subsector with a competitive interest
rate; and (4) ineffective communication between
industries and industrial research-and-development
centers.
Based on the influence of macroeconomic conditions, it
is found that production value of manufacturing
industry is more affected by domestic environment than
it is by global environment. For every 1% growth in
aggregate Growth Domestic Product (GDP), GDP
contributed by manufacturing industry will grow more
rapidly by 1.3%. As for when the world GDP grows by
1%, manufacturing industry’s GDP growth is predicted
to increase by only 0.11%. The industrial subsectors of
TPT, footwear, and furniture have a more inelastic
relationship to world GDP compared to manufacturing
industry. 1% increase in world GDP is estimated to only
increase the GDP of TPT, footwear, and furniture
subsectors by 0.08%. A rise in real per capita income by
1% domestically also associates with only 0.42% GDP
growth in the respective subsector. The task to guard
the strengthening of the three subsectors will
hypothetically be more challenging compared to that of
manufacturing industry in general.
LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research
Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia
LPEM FEUI L P E M P O L I C Y B R I E F
lhipotetis akan lebih menantang dibanding
industri manufaktur secara umum.
Potensi Sub-Sektor TPT
Sub-sektor industri TPT dapat dibedakan
atas industri hulu, antara, dan hilir. Secara internal,
sub-sektor ini memiliki kekuatan berupa (1)
Ketersediaan tenaga kerja yang tumbuh rata -
rata 1,6% per tahun mengingat tidak diper-
lukannya keterampilan khusus; (2) Keandalan
kualitas, seperti dicontohkan produk poliester;
serta (3) Penerapa kewajiban peremajaan mesin
setiap 20 tahun sekali. Kelemahan sub-sektor ini
meliputi (1) Kete-rtinggalan upaya penelitian dan
pengem-bangan yang idealnya memperoleh
pendanaan antara 1,7% - 3,6% dari PDB, (2)
Tingginya harga jual akibat melambungnya
biaya produksi; (3) Mahalnya biaya energi listrik
dan bahan bakar; serta (4) Infrastruktur
pelabuhan yang tidak mendukung peningkatan
frekuensi perdaga-ngan dan justru mencari laba
sendiri.
Dikaitkan dengan situasi eksternal, sub-
sektor TPT memiliki oportunitas berupa (1)
Pertumbuhan basis konsumen kelas menengah
domestik; serta (2) Peniadaan hambatan
perdagangan internasional berupa tarif maupun
non-tarif. Ancaman yang dihadapi sub-sektor TPT
meliputi (1) Ketatnya persaingan dengan negara
pengekspor lain yang memiliki upah buruh lebih
rendah seperti Vietnam dan Bangladesh; (2)
Majunya teknoogi produksi yang dimiliki negara
pesaing seperti Korea Selatan sehingga mudah
mengkoordinasikan rantai produksi secara
berkesinambungan; (3) Sorotan atas praktik
beberapa perusahaan yang secara tidak
bertanggung jawab mengabaikan pengolahan
limbah sehingga memunculkan sikap apati
masyarakat; serta (4) Membanjirnya komoditas
TPT ilegal yang dipasarkan dengan harga
terjangkau, seperti yang berasal dari Tiongkok.
Mempertimbangkan kondisi yang telah
dideskripsikan, berdasar skenario pesimistis, sub-
sektor TPT bagian hulu diproyeksikan mampu
mencatatkan pertumbuhan produksi 0,61% dan
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ekspor 17,96%. Produksi sub-sektor TPT bagian
antara diproyeksikan tumbuh lebih pesat sebesar
0,65% namun ekspor tumbuh jauh lebih lambat
hanya sebesar 2,25%. Produksi sub-sektor TPT
bagian hilir diproyeksikan tumbuh jauh
mengungguli kedua bagian terdahulu dengan
kisaran 11,43% dan ekspor 7,96%.
Sementara itu, berdasarkan skenario
moderat, pertumbuhan produksi tertinggi
diperkirakan akan diraih oleh sub-sektor TPT
bagian hilir sebesar 12,61%, kemudian antara
3,81% dan hulu 1,78%. Urutan untuk skenario
optimistis masih sama dengan nilai 13,57%, 7,04%,
dan 2,56%. Indikator ekspor menunjukkan hasil
berbeda di mana untuk skenario moderat
pertumbuhan terpesat diperkirakan dicapai oleh
sub-sektor TPT bagian hulu sebesar 22,44%, lalu hilir
9,79% dan antara 6,65%. Urutan serupa dalam
skenario optimistis diperkirakan mencatatkan nilai
27,26%, 11,55%, dan 11,46%.
Penguatan industrial yang efektif bukan
tidak mungkin dapat memacu pertumbuhan
produksi dan ekspor sub-sektor TPT. Studi ini
merekomendasikan ditempuhnya langkah
perbaikan yang meliputi (1) Pemberdayaan
secara fokus bagi bagian hulu, seperti bagi
produsen fiber, rayon, poliester, dan serat alam
berbahan non-kapas; (2) Pengetatan aturan
peremajaan mesin, khususnya bagi mesin
pemintalan, tenun, rajut, dan garmen; (3)
Penyediaan dukungan dana investasi; serta (4)
Penjaminan kesinambungan pasokan energi
memanfaatkan sumber alternatif seperti batu
bara untuk menggantikan minyak dan gas.
Potensi Sub-Sektor Alas Kaki
Sub-sektor industri alas kaki diklasifikasikan
menjadi bagian hulu dan hilir. Secara internal,
sub-sektor tersebut memiliki kekuatan berupa
berlimpahnya jumlah dan rendahnya turnover
tenaga kerja. Kelemahan yang dimiliki antara lain
meliputi (1) Keterbatasan pasokan bahan baku,
khususnya berupa kulit sapi yang hampir 75%
kebutuhannya dipenuhi melalui impor; (2)
Peningkatan upah buruh akibat penyesuaian
Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture Industries: Could They Continue to Develop? 3
Potentials of TPT Subsector
The industrial subsector of TPT can be
distinguished into upstream, midstream, and
downstream industries. Internally, this subsector has
some strengths in the form of (1) availability of labor
that grows by an average of 1.6% per year considering
no need for special skills; (2) reliability of quality, as
exemplified by polyester products; and (3)
implementation of obligatory machinery refurbishment
once every 20 years. Weaknesses of the subsector
include (1) underdevelopment of research and
development efforts which ideally obtain 1.7%-3.6%
from GDP in funding; (2) high selling prices because of
soaring production cost; (3) high cost of electricity and
fuel; and (4) port infrastructure that does not support
the increasing frequency of trade and seeks its own
profit instead.
Linked to external situation, TPT subsector has
opportunities in the form of (1) growing domestic
middle-class consumer base; and (2) elimination of
barriers to international trade in the form of tariff as
well as non-tariff. Threats faced by TPT subsector
include (1) intense competition with other exporting
countries that have lower labor cost such as Vietnam
and Bangladesh; (2) advanced production technology
owned by competitor countries such as South Korea
which facilitates the continuous coordination of
production chain; (3) highlights on some companies’
practices which irresponsibly ignore the waste
management, which give rise to apathetic public
attitudes; and (4) an influx of illegal TPT commodities
marketed at affordable prices, such as those originated
from China.
Considering the conditions already described,
based on pessimistic scenario, the upstream part of TPT
subsector is projected to be able to record 0.61%
growth in production and 17.96% in exports. Production
of midstream TPT subsector is projected to grow more
rapidly by 0.65%, but exports grow much more slowly
by only 2.25%. Production of downstream TPT
subsector is projected to grow much more rapidly at
11.43%, outperforming the previous two parts, and
exports at 7.96%.
Meanwhile, based on moderate scenario, the
highest production growth is expected to be achieved
by downstream TPT subsector at 12.61%, followed by
midstream at 3.81% and upstream at 1.78%. The
sequence for optimistic scenario is still the same with
the value at 13.57%, 7.04%, and 2.56%. The exports
indicator shows different results where, in moderate
scenario, the fastest growth is expected to be achieved
by upstream TPT subsector at 22.44%, followed by
downstream at 9.79% and midstream by 6.65%. Similar
sequence in optimistic scenario is expected to record
the value at 27.26%, 11.55%, and 11.46%.
An effective industrial strengthening is not unlikely to
stimulate production and exports growth in TPT
subsector. This study recommends to go through some
corrective measures which include (1) a focus on
empowering the upstream part, such as for producers
of fiber, rayon, polyester, and non-cotton natural fiber;
(2) stricter rules of machinery refurbishment, especially
for spinning machines, looms, knitters, and garment
machines; (3) provision for the support of investment
funds; and (4) assurance for uninterrupted supply of
energy by utilizing alternative sources, such as coal, to
replace oil and gas.
Potentials of Footwear Subsector
The industrial subsector of footwear is classified
into upstream and downstream. Internally, the
subsector has as its strengths an abundant amount and
low turnover of labors. Weaknesses include (1) limited
supply of raw materials, especially cowhide which 75%
of the needs are met through import; (2) increased
labor cost due to the adjustment in minimum wage; (3)
high logistics cost; and (4) regional licensing and
taxation requirements that have poor legal certainty.
Externally, this subsector actually has extensive market
potentials, but it is currently facing serious challenges
from competitors, such as China.
Based on the situation, the downstream part of
footwear subsector is projected to grow by double digits
in 2014 in a variety of scenarios. Production growth is
projected at 16.94%, 19.89%, and 21.08% for
pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios
respectively. Increases in exports are relatively less
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upah minimum; (3) Tingginya biaya logistik; serta
(4) Ketentuan perizinan dan perpajakan daerah
yang memiliki kepastian hukum buruk. Secara
eskternal, sub-sektor ini sebenarnya memiliki
potensi pasar yang luas namun tengah
dihadapkan pada tantangan serius dari pesaing
seperti Tiongkok.
Berdasar keadaan tersebut, sub-sektor
alas kaki bagian hilir diproyeksikan mampu
tumbuh hingga dua digit di tahun 2014 dalam
beragam skenario. Pertumbuhan produksi
diproyeksikan bernilai 16,94%, 19,89%, dan 21,08%
terurut untuk skenario pesimistis, moderat, dan
optimistis. Peningkatan ekspor relatif lebih tidak
konsisten tanpa terfluktuasi oleh perubahan
asumsi, yaitu sebesar 18,03%, 18,78%, dan 19,51%
untuk urutan skenario yang sama. Hal tersebut
menandakan bahwa sub-sektor alas kaki dapat
berperan sebagai salah satu kontributor per-
tumbuhan industrial yang konsisten, terlepas dari
situasi eksternal. Proyeksi tersebut didasarkan atas
asumsi pertumbuhan PDB domestik sebesar 5,3%,
5,6%, dan 6,3%, peningkatan PDB dunia sebesar
3,6%, 3,8%, dan 4%, serta kenaikan harga ekspor
sebesar (5%), 0%, dan 5% seluruhnya terurut untuk
skenario pesimistis, moderat, dan optimistis.
Langkah korektif yang mendesak untuk dite-
rapkan pemerintah adalah (1) Peninjauan
kembali larangan impor kulit dari Tiongkok dan
pengkajian wacana pembatasan ekspor kulit
guna memastikan kesinambungan pasokan;
serta (2) Pemantapan koordinasi tripartit
sehingga keputusan dalam hubungan industrial
seperti pengupahan dapat memperhatikan
setiap pemangku kepentingan, termasuk
pengusaha.
Potensi Sub-Sektor Furnitur
Sub-sektor furnitur, secara internal memiliki
kekuatan antara lain berupa (1) Keberlimpahan
bahan baku kayu dan rotan, serta tenaga kerja
terampil; serta (2) Keunikan dan konsistensi
kualitas produk. Kelemahan yang dihadapi
termasuk (1) Inefisiensi dan produktivitas yang
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rendah dalam produksi; (2) Kekurangmampuan
perajin menciptakan nilai tambah di tahap
desain dan penyelesaian produk; (3) Ketiadaan
standardisasi produk; serta (4) Keterbatasan
target pasar yang potensial. Secara eksternal,
sub-sektor furnitur memiliki peluang dari (1)
Permintaan dari pasar tradisional seperti Eropa
dan Amerika yang masih terus mengalir; serta (2)
Apresiasi bagi produk yang khususnya
berkategori medium dan high end. Tantangan
terbesar yang dihadapi sub-sektor furnitur
berkaitan dengan bahan baku, khususnya
tentang keberadaan boikot terhadap kayu
tropis, praktik pembalakan liar yang merajalela,
pungutan pengurusan Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas
Kayu (SVLK) yang tidak murah; serta wacana
legalisasi ekspor kayu dalam bentuk log yang
berisiko mengurangi pasokan atau meningkat-
kan harga bahan baku bagi sub-sektor furnitur.
Sub-sektor furnitur diprediksikan memiliki
pertumbuhan produksi sebesar 9,2%, 13%, dan
17,7% masing - masing untuk skenario pesimistis,
moderat, dan pesimistis, dengan peningkatan
ekspor diekspektasikan sebesar 3,2%, 10,5%, dan
18,7%. Skenario tersebut secara terurut
berlandaskan pada asumsi pertumbuhan PDB
nasional sebesar 5,3%, 5,6%, dan 6,3%,
peningkatan PDB dunia sebesar 3,6%, 3,8%, dan
4%, serta kenaikan harga ekspor sebesar (5%), 0%,
dan 5%.
Studi ini mengajukan rekomendasi terkait
sub-sektor furnitur berupa (1) Minimalisasi ham-
batan institusional guna mengundang investasi;
(2) Pengamanan ketersediaan bahan baku
melalui pengawasan pembalakan liar, dispensasi
pungutan yang berlebihan, dan pembatasan
eskpor kayu; (3) Pengupayaan perluasan pasar
luar negeri misalnya dengan dukungan Badan
Penyangga Ekspor; serta (4) Penetapan regulasi
ketenagakerjaan yang memungkinkan pening-
katan produktivitas.
Kesimpulan
Industri manufaktur yang terdiri dari
beragam sub-sektor merupakan industri yang
4 Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture Industries: Could They Continue to Develop?
consistent without fluctuated by changes in assumption,
i.e. at 18.03%, 18.78%, and 19.51% for the same
sequence of scenarios. It indicates that footwear
subsector could act as one of the consistent
contributors to industrial growth, regardless of external
circumstances. The projection is based on the
assumption of domestic GDP growth at 5.3%, 5.6%, and
6.3%; world GDP increase by 3.6%, 3.8%, and 4%; and
increases in exports prices by (5%), 0%, and 5% for
pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios
respectively. The urgent corrective measures to be
implemented by the government include (1)
reevaluation of import ban on Chinese leather and
assessment of the plan to restrict exports of leather in
order to ensure continuity of supply; and (2)
consolidation of tripartite coordination, so that the
decisions in industrial relations, such as remuneration,
could pay attention to every stakeholder, including
business owners.
Potentials of Furniture Subsector
Furniture subsector has several strengths
internally which include (1) an abundance of wood and
rattan for raw materials, as well as skilled labors; and (2)
the uniqueness and consistency of product quality.
Weaknesses encountered include (1) inefficiency and
low productivity in production; (2) inadequate
competence of craftsmen in value-added creation in
design and product-finishing phases; (3) absence of
product standardization; and (4) lack of potential
market targets. Externally, furniture subsector obtains
its opportunities from (1) demand from traditional
markets, such as Europe and America, which continues
to flow; and (2) appreciation for products, especially in
medium and high-end categories. The biggest
challenges that furniture subsector faces are related to
raw materials, especially regarding the existing boycotts
of tropical timber, widespread practices of illegal
logging, charge in implementing Timber Legality
Assurance System (Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas
Kayu/SVLK) which is not small; as well as reports on the
legalization of the exports of timber in the form of logs
which would run the risk of diminishing the supply or
increasing the price of raw materials for furniture
subsector.
Furniture subsector is predicted to perform a
growth in production by 9.2%, 13%, and 17.7%
respectively for pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic
Furniture subsector is predicted to perform a
growth in production by 9.2%, 13%, and 17.7%
respectively for pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic
scenarios, with expected increases in exports by 3.2%,
10.5%, and 18.7%. The respective scenarios are based
on the assumption of national GDP growth at 5.3%,
5.6%, and 6.3%; world GDP increase by 3.6%, 3.8%, and
4%; as well as increases in exports prices by (5%), 0%,
and 5%.
The study proposes several recommendations regarding
furniture subsector in the form of (1) minimization of
institutional barriers to attract investment; (2) securing
the availability of raw materials through monitoring of
illegal loggings, exemption of excessive charges, and by
restricting exports of timber; (3) efforts to expand the
overseas market, for example by the support of Exports
Buffer Agency (Badan Penyangga Ekspor); and (4)
provision for labor regulations that enable productivity
improvement.
Conclusion
Manufacturing industry, which consists of diverse
subsectors, is heterogeneous; thus, changes in external
factors can produce different effects for each subsector.
Potentials of each subsector are also diverse, where
some are promising enough to be directed as exports
booster while others lack similar potentials. Therefore,
all forms of treatment need to be mapped out so that
the combined results of any intervention in
manufacturing industry could proportionately reach
every targeted indicator. As long as the preconditions
are met, there is no reason for the TPT, footwear, and
furniture subsectors to not develop as the leading
sectors in Indonesian economy.
Bibliography
Outlook Industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil, Alas Kaki,
dan Furnitur
LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research
Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia