Leadership 2030Preparing for the challenges of the future

NOVEMBER 2011 LUBNA HAQ

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What are megatrends

Megatrends are long term transformational processes on a global scale, with a broad scope and dramatic impact

Observable over decades, they can be projected with a high degree of probability at least 15 years into the future

TimeThey affect all regions and stakeholders, including governments, individuals and businesses

ReachThey fundamentally transform policies, society and the economy

Impact

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Megatrend 1:Globalisation 2.0

Key characteristics

Increasing globalisation

Shift in economic balance of power to Asia

Rise of a global middle class

‘Re-regionalisation’ and ‘globalisation’

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Megatrend 2:Climate change and environmental impacts

Key characteristics

Rising CO2 emissions and temperatures

Greater environmental responsibility and accountability

Growing scarcity of strategic resources such as water, minerals, metals and fossil fuels

Rising investment in clean technology

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Megatrend 3:Individualisation and pluralism

Key characteristics

Individualism as a global phenomenon

Value pluralisms: work-life balance, self fulfillment and self-expression, values-driven engagement

Rise of the creative class

From mass to micro markets

Decline of loyalty to organisations

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Megatrend 4:Digital lifestyle and work

Key characteristics

New media conquer work and private life

Individuals are ‘always on’

Public / private divide gets blurred

Changing relationship networks: fewer strong, more loose connections

Power shift to digitally savvy

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Megatrend 5:Demographic change

Key characteristics

World population growing and ageing, but demographic imbalances

Aging society demands generational leadership

War for talent, brain drain, brain cycle

Increasing migration; will drive cultural diversity

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Five key features of the leader of tomorrow

Conceptual and strategic thinking

Ethics: integrity, sincerity, intellectual openness

Loyalty creation – meaning and identity economics

Leadership of heterogeneous and diverse teams

Real, power sharing team work inside and outside of the organisation

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What will not change

Results Hierarchy

Relationshipstrust face to face leaders

Need for leaders

Security

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Top five for HR

01 Become technologically savvy

02 Become even more strategic

03 Understand human limitations – what is possible and what is not

04 Manage expectations

05 Connecting across organisations

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The unevenly distributed future:What the best are already doing

Leadership starts early and is available to all

Collaborative technology widely used

Development is targeted and individuated

Focus on family/CSR/ work from home

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Implications

What do you think about this vision of the future?How do I appreciate and leverage the strengths of an ever increasing mix of cultures?

How do I define a target culture when pluralism and individualism become ever more important than the espoused set of company values and beliefs?

Many of the leaders of today will still lead in 2030. So how can they be enabled and encouraged to adapt to this ever moving picture of change?

Day to day pace is getting quicker and demand to do more from stakeholders is increasing . How can a leader become more efficient at meeting these demands yet still be conscious and proactively manage the subtle and slower changes that are occurring around us due to these megatrends?

How can we truly identify the unique value of a face to face meeting over other formats which will become increasingly available? Even with faster jets, travel time around the globe is inefficient.

Given consistent moves to get more from less how do we recognise when we reach the point of human limitation in dealing with these demands (thereby moving the focus from the ‘R’ to the ‘H’ in ‘HR’)?

What if 2030 came sooner? Take a moment and think what if 2030 was tomorrow? What would happen to your organisation? For instance, what would happen if people didn’t come into the office tomorrow?