Presented by:

LUIS MARTÍN POMARES

ENERGY DEPARTAMENTRenewable energy division

Plataforma Solar de Almería

SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTING WITH MESOSCALE SIMALTION MODEL WRF

2

SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTING

1. MOTIVATION

2. GROUND MEASUREMENTS DATA

3. RESULTS

4. CONCLUSIONS

3

INTRODUCTION

4

GROUND SOLAR RADIATION DATA

•Data Period:1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005•#Data: 59 days of data 1416 values.•Predicition of Hourly Goblal Solar Radiation•Domain Europe•Resolution 27km

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

40

45

50

55

60

65

5

RESULTS: HOURLY

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100RMSE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting

% R

MSE

Latitude

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20MBE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting

% M

BE

Latitude

6

RESULTS: DAILY

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting

% R

MS

E

Latitude

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting

% M

BE

Latitude

7

RESULTS: GRANADA 37.14º

0 500 1000 1500-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

MBE: 7.46% RMSE: 34.39%

8

RESULTS: GRANADA 37.14º

Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE:9.14% RMSE:24.36%

9

RESULTS: OVIEDO 43.35º

0 500 1000 1500-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

MBE: -14.56% RMSE: 75.45%

10

RESULTS: OVIEDO 43.35º

Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE: -16.01% RMSE: 64.01%

11

RESULTS1/2/2005 12:00

Granada

Oviedo

12

RESULTS6/2/2005 12:00

Granada

Oviedo

13

RESULTS9/2/2005 12:00

Granada

Oviedo

14

RESULTS22/2/2005 12:00

Granada

Oviedo

15

CONCLUSIONS