Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Solar Drivers of the Sun-Earth Connection and Real-Time Space

Weather Predictions

LWS Science WorkshopMarch 23-26, 2004

Dr. Murray Dryermurray.dryer@noaa.gov

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Project Goals

Forecast, days in advance, solar wind conditions that drive space weather variability at Earth (and Mars).

Quantify our forecast skill in terms useful to the space weather forecast community.

Provide inputs to downstream (magnetospheric/ ionospheric/thermospheric) models.

Improve our physical understanding of Sun-Earth-Connections.

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Real-time Forecasting Team

NOAA/SEC: M. Dryer , Z. Smith and T. R. Detman

EXPI: C. D. Fry (LWS PI)

UAF/GI: C. S. Deehr (UPOS PI) and W. Sun

UAF/IARC: S.-I. Akasofu

UAH/CSPAR: C.-C. Wu

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Technical Approach Develop an observation-driven, physics-

based solar wind model. Implement a flexible, modular forecast system

extending from the Sun to the Earth and beyond.

Simulate realistic solar wind conditions overa range of solar activity levels and compare with observations.

Test the system in a real-time forecast environment using available observations.

Compute and publish forecast skill statistics.

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Hybrid Kinematic/3D-MHD Solar Wind Model

v, n, T, BIMF

Coronal Model(SSCS)

EventProxies

EmpiricalTranslation

(ET)

1.0 - 2.5 Rs

2.5 Rs

2.5 Rs

2.5 - 32 Rs 0.15 - 1.0 AU

Kinematic(HAFv3)

3D-MHD(IGMV)

Near EarthModels

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Br (photosphere) Br and Vr @ 2.5 Rs

Vr

Br

Carrington maps 3D view

Potential field

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

HAF Model Simulationsof Carrington Rotations 2007 and 2008

Aug. 29 - Sep. 26, 2003 Sep. 26 - Oct. 24, 2003

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

HAF: Characterizing Solar Events

Shock shape: V = Vs exp[(GCD/)2]Speed at inner boundary: V(t) = V (t/) exp(1-t/)

Required Input Observation

Start time, eg., 20010825 1642 GOES X-ray event start time

Location, eg., N20 W34 H-alpha optical report

Initial shock speed, Vs Metric type II radio report or spectra

Duration, GOES X-ray flux temporal profile

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Fearless Forecast Study

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Oct.-Nov. 2003 Events

Date TimeFF# 2003 UT Lat Lon Vs Tau OPT XRAY

0507 Oct. 19 1650 N05 E56 625 0120 1N X1.10508 Oct. 21 0347 S10 E90 1058 0040 0509 Oct. 22 0938 S02 E22 650 0300 M1.70510 Oct. 23 0827 S21 E88 967 0130 X5.40511 Oct. 25 0552 N00 W15 316 0200 SF M1.70513 Oct. 26 1735 N05 W33 950 0330 X1.20514 Oct. 28 1102 S16 E08 1875 0300 X17.20515 Oct. 29 2042 S15 W02 818 0130 2B X10.00516 Nov. 1 2234 S12 W60 1086 0100 1N M3.3

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Ecliptic Plane IMF

HAF Simulation Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2003Select the

on

ay movie

Hand Tooland clickthe image topl

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

HAF Simulation Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2003

Hammer-Aitoff SkymapSelect theHand Tooland click onthe image toplay movie

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Solar Wind Speed and Density at 0.15 AU(Input Boundary Conditions for IGMV)

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Space Weather at MarsMcKenna-Lawlor et al., Prediction of Energetic Particle Radiation in the Close Martian environment, submitted, Annal. Geophys., 2004

Simulated solar wind conditions at Mars during the March,1989 solar events.

Compared simulations with energetic particle observations by Phobos-2 SLED and LET instruments.

Events at Sun, Earth and Mars were significantly correlated.

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Outstanding flares occurring during 6-27 March 1989.

McKenna-Lawlor et al., 2004, Table 3.__________________________________________________________________

Flare Day/Time Classif. Vs* Tau SSC/SI Event Location Mar.89/UT X-ray/Opt. km/s Mins Mar.89/UT __________________________________________________________________I N35 E69 6/1352 X15/3B 1200 120 9/1900II N30 E40 9/1011 M7.6/2N 2000 10 10/1600 III N31 E22 10/1900 X4/3B 1120 180 13/0100IV N33 W60 17/1744 X6/2B 2500 60 19/0200 V S25 E76 20/2045 M3.1/2 1500 180 23/1200 VI N18 W28 23/1939 X1.5/3B ---- --- ---

*These values were found by HAFv.2 iteration, using SSC or SI times since the metric Type II coronal shock speeds were not recorded in the NGDC archive during this period.

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

March, 1989Solar Events

IMP8 ObservationsAnd Dst index

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Solar wind conditions at Marspredicted by the HAF model

Proton flux at Mars observedby Phobos-2 SLED instrument

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Fearless Forecast #530January 20, 2004 ~0730 UT: M6.1/2N flare in AR0540 at S16W12

X-RayGOES-12: X-ray enhancement at 0729-0743-0747 UT

OpticalSan Vito: H-alpha increase at 0734-0744-0810 UTLearmonth: H-alpha at 0733-0746-0746 (typo, presumably, in Edited Events).NOAA/SEC: SOHO/LASCO data indicates a full halo CME.

Metric Type II Radio BurstCulgoora: 0739 UT (180 MHz) to 0750 UT (25 MHz), Shock speed ~550 km/sec;Culgoora: 0748 UT (100 MHz) to 0757 UT, Speed ~850 km/sec;Learmonth: 0739 UT (180MHz) to 0756 UT (25 MHz), Speed ~952 km/sec;IZMIRAN: 0740 UT (190 MHz) to 0755 UT (25 MHz), No reported speed estimate;San Vito: 0740 UT (180 MHz) to 0753 UT (25 MHz). Speed ~620 km/sec.

Fearless Forecaster (Dryer): Vs = 952 km/sec, Piston-driving time, tau = 1 hr.ACE/SWEPAM background solar wind speed, Vsw = 520 km/sec.

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

HAF v.2 - Shock Transit Times

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 30 60 90

Source Heliographic Longitute (deg)

Tran

sit t

ime

(hr)

TAU 0.5 hrs 1.0 hrs 2.0 hrs

500 km/s

1000 km/s

2000 km/s

Exploration Physics International, Inc.

LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004

Project Status We routinely run the HAF model to forecast solar

wind conditions and shock arrival time.

We are running the HAF and IGMV Models to generate performance statistics.

We have merged HAF and IGMV into the H3DM framework. Some debugging continues.

We plan to simulate the solar wind and IMF at L1 during various phases of the solar cycle.

Solar Drivers of the Sun-Earth Connection and Real-Time Space Weather PredictionsProject GoalsTechnical ApproachOct.-Nov. 2003 EventsHAF Simulation Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2003Solar Wind Speed and Density at 0.15 AU(Input Boundary Conditions for IGMV)Space Weather at MarsProject Status

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