Mainstreaming Population Management in the Philippine Development Agenda – Dr Dennis Mapa, UP...

8/8/2019 Mainstreaming Population Management in the Philippine Development Agenda Dr Dennis Mapa, UP School of Statistics

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Mulat Pinoy Media Forum

Population Management should beMainstreamed in the Philippine

Development Agenda

Dennis S.Dennis S. MapaMapa

Associate Professor in Statistics and EconomicsAssociate Professor in Statistics and EconomicsUniversity of the PhilippinesUniversity of the Philippines DilimanDiliman

MulatMulat PinoyPinoy Media ForumMedia Forum28 August 201028 August 2010


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Year

Population

(in millions)

Poor

(in millions)

Percentage of

Poor

2000 (actual) 76.95 25.47 33.00

2003 (est) 81.83 24.55 30.00

2006 (est) 86.80 28.56 32.90

2009 (est) 92.23 30.44 33.00

Population Poverty Nexus


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PHASE 1. Triggered by initial decline in infant mortality, the

youth dependency group swells. Economic growthand saving rate are low since the young requires

investment in health and education.

Philippines 2000

-10 -5 0 5 10

0 - 4

10 - 14

20 - 24

30 - 34

40 - 44

50 - 54

60 - 64

70 and Over

male female

10 5


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PHASE 2. Economic growth is promoted about 20

years later when the youth enters the workingage group.

Thailand 2000

-10 -5 0 5 10

0 - 4

10 - 14

20 - 24

30 - 34

40 - 44

50 - 54

60 - 64

70 and Over

Male Female

10 5


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PHASEPHASE 33.. EconomicEconomic growthgrowth continuescontinues asas thethe elderlyelderly

cohortcohort swells,swells, individualsindividuals accumulateaccumulate savingsavinginin theirtheir workingworking yearsyears toto serveserve asas bufferbuffer

duringduring thethe retirementretirement yearsyears..

Japan 2000

-10 -5 0 5 10

0 - 4

10 - 14

20 - 24

30 - 34

40 - 44

50 - 54

60 - 64

70 and Over

male female

10 5


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Demographic Factors and Economic Growth

Demographic factors have strong and significant effects on

economic growth (Bloom(Bloom andand CanningCanning ((20012001));; BloomBloom andand

WilliamsonWilliamson ((19981998))))..

FirstFirst dividenddividend demographicdemographic transitiontransition resultsresults toto higherhigher perper

capitacapita incomeincome (Mason(Mason andand LeeLee;; 20062006))..

SecondSecond dividenddividend -- individualsindividuals accumulateaccumulate savingsaving inin theirtheir

workingworking yearsyears toto serveserve asas bufferbuffer duringduring theirtheir retirementretirement yearsyears;;

whenwhen societysociety increasesincreases itsits savingsaving raterate thisthis resultsresults toto aa moremore rapidrapid

economiceconomic growth,growth, creatingcreating thethe secondsecond demographicdemographic dividenddividend

(Mason(Mason;; 20072007)).. TheThe PhilippinesPhilippines hashas notnot benefitedbenefited fromfrom thethe twotwo demographicdemographic

dividendsdividends duedue toto itsits rapidrapid populationpopulation growthgrowth..


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Why the Philippines Grew Slow? (Cross Country Analysis)

Variable Philippines Thailand Forgone AnnualGrowth

Initial Conditions

GDP per person, 1975 1502 805

Ratio of Workers to Total Population 53.76 52.12 1.072%

Population Growth 0.768%Total 2.36 1.58

Workers 2.85 2.53

OPENNESS 64.30 67.96 0.028%

SAVING RATE 22.03 28.02 0.206%

Human Capital I:Average LEB (1976 - 2000) 64.39 66.11 0.072%

Human Capital II:

Illiteracy Rate (Average, 1976 -2000) 7.93 5.58 0.116%

INSTITUTION 2.97 6.26 0.574%

TROPIC 1 1 0.000%

Total Growth Differential

(Accounted by Model) 2.836%

Actual GDP per capita

(average, 1975-2000) 4.100% 8.840% 4.740%


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Tale of two countries:Tale of two countries: WhatWhat would have been the perwould have been the percapita income growth if the countrys population growth pathcapita income growth if the countrys population growth path

was similar to that of Thailand?was similar to that of Thailand?

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

PHIL- Actual PHIL SIM THAI


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Reduction in PovertyReduction in Poverty

Scenarios

Poverty Headcount

(Individuals)

Number %

Status quo 20,465,409 26.12

With low proportion of

young dependents 17,646,631* 22.52

Difference 2,818,778 3.60

* assuming the same population in 2003* assuming the same population in 2003


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AsAs countriescountries movemove fromfrom largelarge familiesfamilies andand povertypoverty

intointo highhigh growthgrowth (wealth(wealth creation)creation) andand ageing,ageing, theythey

passpass throughthrough whatwhat isis calledcalled aa GoldilockGoldilock periodperiod:: aa

generationgeneration oror twotwo inin whichwhich fertilityfertility raterate isis neitherneither tootoo

highhigh nornor tootoo lowlow..

ThisThis fertilityfertility raterate thatthat isis consistentconsistent withwith stablestable

populationpopulation isis aboutabout 22..11 (the(the replacementreplacement raterate ofof

fertility)fertility).. TheThe fallfall toto replacementreplacement fertilityfertility isis aa uniqueunique andand

preciousprecious opportunityopportunity forfor higherhigher growthgrowth..

The Goldilock Period

Demographic Transition and Dividends


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Poor countries are racing through the

Demographic Transition as rich ones

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

South Korea 5.67 4.53 2.83 1.59 1.47 1.13

ASEAN 5

Singapore 5.45 3.09 1.74 1.87 1.44 1.26

Thailand 6.40 5.33 3.21 2.11 1.86 1.85

Indonesia 5.52 5.35 4.36 3.10 2.42 2.23

Malaysia 6.81 5.47 4.21 3.68 2.96 2.65

Philippines 6.96 6.20 5.17 4.31 3.62 3.30

Rest of SE Asia

Vietnam 6.05 5.89 4.97 3.62 1.90 2.08

Myanmar 6.06 5.98 4.54 3.38 2.41 2.10

Brunei Darussalam 6.83 5.62 4.04 3.20 2.58 2.34

Cambodia 6.29 5.81 5.84 5.73 3.96 3.27

Lao PDR 6.42 6.42 6.41 6.08 4.03 3.29


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How do we speed up the demographic transition?

SachsSachs ((20082008)) pointedpointed outout thatthat demographicdemographic transitions,transitions, wherewhere

theythey havehave occurred,occurred, havehave typicallytypically beenbeen acceleratedaccelerated andand eveneven

triggered,triggered, byby proactiveproactive governmentgovernment policiespolicies..

ThereThere isis aa needneed toto influenceinfluence publicpublic policiespolicies thatthat playplay anan

importantimportant rolerole inin assisting,assisting, particularlyparticularly thethe poorpoor households,households, thethe

achievementachievement ofof voluntaryvoluntary reductionreduction ofof fertilityfertility ratesrates..

ThisThis willwill relieverelieve thethe directdirect pressurespressures ofof populationpopulation growth,growth,

particularlyparticularly unwantedunwanted fertilityfertility estimatedestimated toto contributecontribute aboutabout1616%% ofof thethe futurefuture populationpopulation growthgrowth throughthrough directdirect populationpopulation

policiespolicies..


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The Current Strategy Does Not Work

TheThe currentcurrent strategystrategy ofof reducingreducing thethe totaltotal fertilityfertilityraterate byby relyingrelying onon NaturalNatural FamilyFamily PlanningPlanning (NFP)(NFP)

methodsmethods clearlyclearly willwill notnot bringbring usus toto thethe GoldilocksGoldilocksperiodperiodatat aa fasterfaster pacepace..

eveneven asas populationpopulation growthgrowth isis comingcoming down,down, itit isisnotnot comingcoming downdown atat thethe raterate necessarynecessary toto improveimprove

thethe socioeconomicsocioeconomic statusstatus ofof thethe countrycountry.. (Health(Health

SecretarySecretary EsperanzaEsperanza Cabral)Cabral)


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Relationship between per capita GDP and TFR

of the Philippine Regions from 1993 to 2006

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0

LN(GDPPC)

TFR


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Determinants of TFR (Regional Data)

MODEL 1 MODEL 2 +

Variable Estimate s.e. Estimate s.e.

Log of Income -2.51*** 0.855 -2.78*** 0.594

Education -1.87* 0.998 -2.08** 0.964

Labor Force Participation -1.85 2.673 -1.78 2.57

Constant 29.49*** 7.54 31.77*** 5.27

Overall R2 0.50 0.48

+ other control variables not shown;+ other control variables not shown;

*significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; ***significant at 1%


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Simulation of TFR under 2 Scenarios

(Preliminary Estimates)

Scenario 1Scenario 1

business as usualbusiness as usual average per capita income growth of 2 percent per yearaverage per capita income growth of 2 percent per year

Scenario 2Scenario 2 with government intervention to relieve pressure ofwith government intervention to relieve pressure of

unwanted fertilityunwanted fertility

90 percent coverage on unwanted fertility90 percent coverage on unwanted fertility

average per capita income of 2 percent per yearaverage per capita income of 2 percent per year


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Total Fertility Rates under 2 Scenarios

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2008 2010 2020 2030

3.3 3.2

2.65

2.11

3.3

2.72

2.18

1.64Scenario 1Scenario 2


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TFR of the Bottom Quintile under 2 Scenarios

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2008 2010 2020 2030 2040

5.20 5.10

4.554.01

3.47

5.20

3.93

3.39

2.85

2.31

Scenario 1

Scenario 2


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TFR of the Second Quintile under 2 Scenarios

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

2008 2010 2020 2030 2040

4.20 4.09

3.55

3.01

2.47

4.20

3.16

2.62

2.07

1.53

Scenario 1

Scenario 2


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Top 30 Provinces ( Red color ) with high percentage ofTop 30 Provinces ( Red color ) with high percentage ofyoung dependentsyoung dependents ..

MindanaoMindanao

Bicol RegionBicol Region

EasternEastern VisayasVisayas

30 out of30 out of 8080

provincesprovinces

population of 22.6population of 22.6

million, representingmillion, representing

30% of the total30% of the total


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Mainstreaming Population Management in the

Development Agenda

Policy makers must address the countrys rapid population

growth head-on though proactive government policies, suchas the Reproductive Health (RH) bill.

The failure to pass the RH bill is very unfortunate theimpact of a rapid population growth is irreversible.

Government must also directly intervene by, for example,

providing contraceptive services to poor households thatcannot afford these contraceptive services.


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Alternative Drivers in Reducing Fertility Rate

Increasing the capacity of women to participate in

the labor market.

Investing in health to decrease child and maternalmortality .

Enhance education, particularly of women.

Mainstreaming Population Management in the

Development Agenda


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ConclusionsConclusions

HigherHigher populationpopulation growthgrowth resultsresults inin lowerlower perper capitacapitaincomeincome andand higherhigher povertypoverty incidenceincidence

DemographicDemographic traptrap cancan leadlead toto povertypoverty trap,trap, whenwhen poorpoor

familiesfamilies choosechoose toto havehave largelarge numbernumber ofof childrenchildren..

WeWe areare payingpaying aa highhigh priceprice forfor ourour rapidrapid populationpopulationgrowthgrowth..


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Thank you and good afternoon!

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Mainstreaming Population Management in the Philippine Development Agenda – Dr Dennis Mapa, UP...

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