Date post: | 07-Jul-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | mainstreet |
View: | 233 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 18
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
1/18
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,012 Canadians by Smart IVR™ from April 14-15, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones urveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Atlantic (ATL): +/-4.2%; Quebec: +/-3.29%; Ontario: +/-3
Prairies: +/-3.75%; Alberta: +/-3.16%; British Columbia: +/-3.37%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender basehe 2011 Canadian Census.
METHODOLOGY
NDP LEADERSHIP
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
2/18
CULLEN, ‘SOMEONE ELSE’ LEAD NDP LEADERSHIP RACE
April 20, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal party continuingdominate the national landscape. With the NDP beginning their search for a new leader, Mainstreet po
NDP voters and among them Nathan Cullen leads a potential race with 17% - tied with ‘someone else’. Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20.
The Liberals and Justin Trudeau continue to dominate with 48% of decided and leaning voters followedhe Rona Ambrose led Conservatives at 30%. Tom Mulcair and the NDP continue to plumb new depthust 14%, with the Greens at 5% and BQ at 3%,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
It looks like there might be room for a dark horse in the upcoming NDP leadership as Nathan Cullen is or the lead at 17% with "someone else". With over 25% of identified NDP supporters undecided on w
hey might support in what is yet an unknown field, this could open the door for one or more unknocandidates to enter the contest. There are some regional strengths for both Jagmeet Singh in Ontario
Niki Ashton in the prairies.
Among NDP supporters, Rachel Notley has the highest favourability score with +60, followed in a dis
econd by Nathan Cullen at +28 and a strong third for Jagmeet Singh at +27. This could be a factor inupcoming leadership as Notley's influence in the party grows.”
The Leap Manifesto is a hot topic among respondents, with 53% saying they are following this very clo
and another 27% somewhat closely. This compared to just 16% combined who said they were not followt closely or not at all. Approval is split with a majority saying they approve (58%) vs 31% who disappro
The breakdown among support is interesting with strong approval (17%) and strong disapproval (20%). ssue will continue to dominate headlines and the coming leadership contest,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling
n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the o
polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
3/18
If a Federal Election were held today, which parwould you support?
40
35
30
25
20
5
0
5
0 4 4 %
2 7 %
1 3 % 2
%
4 %
1 0 %
LPC CPC NDP GPCBQ UD
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
4/18
If a Federal Election were held today, which parwould you support?
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
Bloc Québécois
Green
Undecided
Sample
18-34
48%
21%
18%
2%
5%
7%
604
35-49
38%
30%
12%
3%
5%
12%
1,233
50-64
45%
29%
10%
2%
3%
10%
1,550
65+
42%
29%
11%
3%
2%
13%
1,625
Male
44%
28%
13%
2%
4%
9%
2,457
Fema
44%
26%
13%
3%
4%
12%
2,555
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
Bloc Québécois
Green
Undecided
Sample
BC
40%
22%
12%
N/A
13%
13%
889
AB
29%
48%
8%
N/A
2%
13%
888
Prairies
42%
35%
10%
N/A
3%
10%
680
ON
50%
26%
12%
N/A
2%
9%
1,110
QC
41%
20%
18%
10%
2%
9%
900
ATL
46%
28%
11%
N/A
4%
11%
535
Nat.
44%
27%
13%
2%
4%
10%
5,012
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
5/18
Decided and Leaning
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 4 8 %
3 0 %
1 4 % 3
%
5 %
LPC CPC NDP GPCBQ
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
6/18
Decided and Leaning
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
Bloc Québécois
Green
Sample
18-34
52%
22%
19%
2%
5%
576
35-49
43%
34%
13%
3%
6%
1,152
50-64
50%
32%
11%
3%
4%
1,463
65+
47%
34%
12%
3%
3%
1,528
Male
47%
31%
14%
2%
5%
2,347
Fema
49%
29%
15%
3%
4%
2,373
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
Bloc Québécois
Green
Sample
BC
45%
25%
15%
N/A
15%
830
AB
35%
53%
9%
N/A
3%
831
Prairies
47%
38%
11%
N/A
3%
645
ON
55%
29%
13%
N/A
3%
1,059
QC
45%
21%
20%
12%
2%
847
ATL
51%
32%
12%
N/A
5%
508
Nat.
48%
30%
14%
3%
5%
4,720
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
7/18
And which party are youleaning towards voting for?
20%
12%
8%
1%
4%
53%
LPC CPC NDP GPCBQ UD
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
8/18
NDP LEADERSHIPSAMPLE: 598
MoE: +/- 4.01
4
0
6
2
A s h t o
n
B o u l e r i c
e
C u l l e
n
J u l i a
n
L e w
i s
S i n g
h
S o m e o n e E l s
e
U n d e c i d e
d
4 %
4 %
1 7 %
1 0 %
1 1 %
1 1 %
1 7 %
2 6 %
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
9/18
NDP LEADERSHIP
[NDP VOTERS ONLY]
Niki Ashton
Alexandre Boulerice
Nathan Cullen
Peter Julian
Avi Lewis
Jagmeet Singh
Someone else
Undecided
18-34
4%
4%
15%
12%
6%
10%
13%
37%
35-49
3%
3%
20%
10%
12%
11%
17%
23%
50-64
4%
4%
16%
8%
16%
15%
20%
19%
65+
5%
5%
20%
9%
14%
9%
23%
15%
Male
3%
5%
16%
11%
11%
12%
18%
24%
Fema
5%
3%
18%
9%
11%
10%
16%
28%
N. Ashton
A. Boulerice
N. Cullen
P. Julian
A. Lewis
J. Singh
Someone else
Undecided
BC
4%
1%
30%
26%
10%
8%
5%
16%
AB
5%
2%
19%
19%
5%
9%
16%
26%
Prairies
39%
3%
9%
9%
9%
6%
9%
15%
ON
2%
0%
16%
8%
8%
20%
16%
29%
QC
1%
10%
14%
5%
15%
5%
24%
26%
ATL
3%
3%
16%
11%
11%
5%
16%
35%
Nat.
4%
4%
17%
10%
11%
11%
17%
26%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
10/18
Favourability Ratings
[NDP VOTERS ONLY]
Ashton
Boulerice
Cullen
Julian
Lewis
Singh
Cardy
Horgan
Notley
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10
32% 11% 14% 43%
17% 11% 15% 57%
55% 27% 5% 13%
21% 9% 17% 53%
41% 27% 5% 27%
33% 6% 27% 34%
35% 11% 7% 47%
28% 22% 20% 30%
71% 11% 13% 5
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar With
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
11/18
How closely have you been following the Leap
Manifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]
53%
27%
11%
5%
4%
Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not Aw
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
12/18
How closely have you been following the LeapManifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]
Very Closely
Somewhat Closely
Not Too Closely
Not At All Closely
Not Aware
18-34
46%
37%
10%
4%
3%
35-49
63%
13%
13%
7%
5%
50-64
55%
26%
10%
5%
4%
65+
53%
28%
10%
5%
5%
Male
52%
26%
13%
5%
4%
Fema
54%
28%
9%
5%
4%
Very
Somewhat
Not Too
Not At All
Not Aware
BC
52%
26%
13%
5%
4%
AB
63%
23%
7%
5%
2%
Prairies
45%
27%
15%
9%
3%
ON
54%
26%
12%
4%
4%
QC
52%
29%
10%
5%
4%
ATL
54%
27%
11%
3%
5%
Nat.
53%
27%
11%
5%
4%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
13/18
And do you approve or disapprove of the LeaManifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]
58%
31%
11%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
14/18
And do you approve or disapprove of the LeaManifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
19%
40%
6%
23%
12%
35-49
19%
40%
6%
23%
11%
50-64
13%
45%
5%
28%
9%
65+
15%
41%
7%
27%
10%
Male
18%
44%
5%
20%
13%
Fema
16%
38%
7%
29%
9%
Str Approve
SW Approve
SW Disapprove
Str Disapprove
Not Sure
BC
17%
43%
3%
25%
13%
AB
7%
9%
12%
67%
5%
Prairies
15%
42%
9%
21%
12%
ON
20%
41%
5%
23%
11%
QC
17%
45%
7%
20%
11%
ATL
14%
43%
8%
22%
14%
Nat.
17%
41%
6%
25%
11%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
15/18
If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Rheal FortinGreen Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whowould you vote for if you could to be the next NDP Leader?
Niki AshtonAlexandre BoulericeNathan Cullen
Peter JulianMegan Leslie
Avi LewisJagmeet Singh
Someone elseUndecided
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Niki Ashton?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Alexandre Boulerice?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter Julian?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Megan Leslie?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Avi Lewis?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jagmeet Singh?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Nathan Cullen?
FavourableUnfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]
SCRIPT
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
16/18
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dominic Cardy?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
FavourableUnfavourable
Not SureNot Familiar with [Candidate Name]
How closely have you been following the Leap Manifesto?
Very closelySomewhat closely
Not too closelyNot at all closely
Not aware of the Leap Manifesto
And do you approve or disapprove of the Leap Manifesto?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveNot sure
SCRIPT
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
17/18
ONLY WE
CALLED
THELIBERAL
MAJORITY
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership
18/18
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h
been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major
government in the 2015 federal election.
CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
@MainStResearch
fb.com/mainstresearch