Maintaining Access for Low Income Students at California Community Colleges:

May 23, 2005 Andrew LaManque, Ph.D. 1

Maintaining Access for Low Income Students at California Community Colleges:

BOG Tuition Waivers and Financial Aid Outreach

Research Presentation Prepared for the Association for Institutional Research Annual Conference, 2005, San Diego

Andrew LaManque, Ph.D.


Presentation Overview• Developing a Framework for Analysis

1) “Market” Research to Help Financial Aid Staff Target Outreach Efforts

2) Exploration of Additional Indicators That Can Be Used to Predict The Number of BOG Recipients

• Work in Progress!• Suggestions Welcome


Outline of Presentation

• Overview of Financial Aid Outreach (BFAP) Funding Statistics– Included Performance Indicators

• Demographics of De Anza College BOG Students

• Review of Potential Data Sources for Additional Performance Indicators


• Augmented Funding for Financial Aid Outreach and Administration

• Minimize the Impact from Tuition Increases (“Sticker Shock”) on Access for Low Income Students

2003-04 Budget Initiative for California Community Colleges


Statewide CC Financial Aid Administration

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

2003 2004 2005

Source: “2004-05 Final Student Financial Aid Administrative Allowance (SFAA 7% Fund) Allocations,” California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office,” Richard Quintana, August 25, 2004.


Benchmark Performance Indicators

Board of Governors Fee Waivers1. The number of unduplicated headcount credit

enrollment receiving a Board of Governors Enrollment Fee

2. The percent of unduplicated headcount credit enrollment receiving a Board of Governors Enrollment Fee Waiver.

3. The dollar value of annual award payments in the BOG Fee Waiver program.

Source: “Impacts of Student Fee Increase and Budget Changes on Enrollment and Financial Aid in the California Community Colleges,” Patrick Perry / Willard Hom, April 2005.


CCC Enrollment and BOG Recipients (Fiscal Year Ending)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2002 2003 2004

Credit Enrollment BOG Recipients

BOG / Enr = 22 %

BOG / Enr = 26 %

BOG / Enr = 22 %

Source: “Impacts of Student Fee Increase and Budget Changes on Enrollment and Financial Aid in the California Community Colleges,” Patrick Perry / Willard Hom, April 2005.


Research Suggestion for a Financial Aid Outreach Program

“ In this hypothetical scenario, the state is planning to study a proposed outreach program that is intended to increase the use of financial aid by target populations.

• What explicit student-level result should be a program objective?

• What factors influence student use of financial aid beyond financial need? ”

Source: “Planning Research on Student Services: Variety in Research,” Willard Hom, iJournal, No 6, Fall 2003.


De Anza’s Use of BFAP Funds• Additional Staffing for New Center

– In-Reach and Outreach• Development of On-Line BOG Application• Application and Award Status On-Line• Self-Help Interactive Multi-media On-Line• More Bilingual Access Points• Development of Email Communication Systems

(e.g. contacting students that have a balance due)• Purchase of Media Materials


De Anza Financial Aid Administration

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2003 2004 2005


De Anza College BOG Awards

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (est)


De Anza College Baseline BOG Performance

11% 13% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 (est)

BO

G R

ecip

ien

ts /

Cre

dit

En

roll

men

t

Note: Based on State MIS Data


Demographics of De Anza College’s BOG Recipients

• Outreach Efforts Can be Better Targeted If We Know:

– Where BOG Students Live

– Where Overall College Enrollment Comes From

– Where Low Income Individuals are More Likely to Reside in the County

– The Ethnicity of BOG Recipients


Zip Code Groupings

• “Low Income” Zips: San Jose East of 880, Alviso, Milpitas, Fremont, Union City, Newark, Hayward, East Palo Alto

• “Middle Income Zips: San Jose Other, Santa Clara, Morgan Hill, Gilroy, Campbell, Sunnyvale (94086, 94089)

• “High Income” Zips: Cupertino, Sunnyvale (94087), Los Altos, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Saratoga


2001 Adjusted Gross Income by Zip Code Groupings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Under $25,000 $25,000 to $50,000 $50,000 or more

"Low Income" ZIPs "Middle Income" ZIPs "High Income" ZIPs

Note: Income groups are defined by college market areas.


De Anza College BOG Recipients by Zip Code Groupings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


2002 2003 2004 2005Note: Income groups are defined by college market areas.


De Anza College Enrollment by Zip Code Groupings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%




Zip Code Group2001

Taxpayers2002

Headcount % Draw

"Low Income" ZIPs 613,791 16,614 2.7%"Middle Income" ZIPs 236,604 12,838 5.4%"High Income" ZIPs 175,717 11,033 6.3%

2001 Taxpayers, De Anza College Fiscal YearHeadcount, and Percent Draw by Zip Code Groupings


De Anza College BOG Recipients as a Percent of Enrollment in Zip Code Groupings

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


BO

G R

ecip

ient

s as

% o

f Enr

for

the

Are

a



De Anza BOG Recipients by Ethnicity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black, Non-Hispanic

Chinese Filipino Mexican Vietnamese White, Non-Hispanic

All Other *Decine tostate

2002 2003 2004 2005


Persistence From Fiscal Year to Fiscal YearDe Anza College BOG Recipients and Other Students

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005

Per

cent

Enr

olle

d th

e P

revi

ous

Fis

cal Y

ear

BOG Recipients Other Students

Note: Does not consider enrollment status, e.g. full / part time enrollment.


The Need for Additional Measures• “Districts and Colleges have been encouraged to

identify additional local goals, objectives and performance measures ...”

– “Information on the Effect of Fee Increases on Enrollment and a Report on Efforts to Mitigate Loss of Access Through Improved Financial Aid Outreach and Administrative Capacity,” CCC Chancellor’s Office, November 2003, Preliminary Report to the Legislature.

• Additional Indicators Can Assist Financial Aid Staff With Targeting Resources to Meet Student Needs


Factors Affecting the Number of BOG Recipients(A Simple Model)

DBOG =

f (income, ENR, “BOG knowledge”, other)– Income = f (employment, wages, wealth/savings, etc.)

– ENR = f (population, perceived affordability, enrollment previous year, alternatives, “college knowledge”, etc.)

– “BOG knowledge” = f (outreach, friends, family, etc.)


External Demographic and Economic Variables

• Factors independent of “BOG Knowledge” and outreach efforts – in addition to enrollment

– County Population– Lower Income Individuals in County– Number of Individuals Employed


De Anza CollegeSanta Clara County Adult Population Compared to

De Anza BOG Recipients as a Percent of Draw

0.54%0.50%0.43%0.35%0.33%

1,250

1,255

1,260

1,265

1,270

1,275

1,280

1,285

1,290

1,295

1,300

2000 Pop(2000-01

BOG)

2001 Pop(2001-02

BOG)

2002 Pop(2002-03

BOG)

2003 Pop(2003-04

BOG)

2004 Pop(2004-05

BOG)

(Tho

usan

ds)

Adu

lt P

opul

atio

n

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

Per

cent

Dra

w

Adult Population % of Draw

Source: Source: State of California, Department of Finance


Source: US IRS: http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=96947,00.html

2001 SCC Taxpayers with AGI < $25,000 andPercent of De Anza BOG Recipients by Zip Code Group

1.2

1.8

1.2

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

"Low Income" ZIPs "Middle Income" ZIPS "High Income" ZIPS

2001

Tax

Ret

urns

with

< $

25,0

00 A

GI

0.0

1.0

2.0

Per

cent

200

2-03

BO

G R

ecip

ient

s

Note: Income groups are defined by college market areas.


% of Santa Clara County Households < $25,000 Income to De Anza BOG Recipients (2003 Constant Dollars)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2000 (2001-02BOG)

2001 (2002-03BOG)

2002 (2003-04BOG)

2003 (2004-05BOG)

Source: US Census, American Community Survey: www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Profiles/Chg/2003/ACS/CA.htm


Source: US Census, American Community Survey: www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Profiles/Chg/2003/ACS/CA.htm

BOG and Number of Households with Income < $25,000 Santa Clara County (2003 Constant Dollars)

2002 INC, 2003-04 BOG

2003 INC,2004-05 BOG

2000 INC, 2001-02 BOG

2001 INC, 2002-03 BOG

y = 0.116x - 2684.8

R2 = 0.8816

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000

Households <$25,000 AGI

BO

G R

ecip

ient

s

BOG vs Households < $25,000 Linear (BOG vs Households < $25,000)


Source: California Employment Development Department: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/

De Anza College BOG Recipients 2000-01 to 2004-05 and Santa Clara County Employment (2 year lag)

2000-01

2004-05 (est BOG)

2005-06 Predicted

2002-03

1999-00

2001-02

y = -1.7738x + 20909

R2 = 0.955

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500

Employment (in hundreds)

BO

G R

ecip

ient

s

BOG vs Employment Linear (BOG vs Employment)

Professional judgement: current year data used for eligibility


Next Steps

• Additional Trend Data

• More Sophisticated Statistical Model

• Integrate Financial Indicators

• Discuss with Campus Financial Aid Staff


Summary

• BOG Recipient Analysis By Zip Code Can Assist in Identifying How Well You Are Serving Your Population

• The Number of BOG Recipients Appears Related to County Economic Variables

• Multiple Measures Can Better Demonstrate the Impact Financial Aid Outreach Has On Achievement of Campus Access Goals


END SLIDE


Data Notes:• Zip Code Groupings Exclude “Other” Areas

(About 5%) That Are Not Included in the Calculations

• Enrollment is Based on College End of Term Files. Fiscal Year Figures Count Students Enrolled At Least One of the 4 Quarters, Including Summer

• Depending on the Data Source, Some Zip Codes May Be Excluded (e.g. Post Office Boxes)

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