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Making the Parramatta River swimmable again Sarah Clift, PRCG Coordinator
Making the Parramatta River swimmable again
Sarah Clift, PRCG Coordinator
Managing for extreme heat
Parramatta had 81% more days ≥ 35OC in 2016 than in 1967 (16 days already this year!) Parramatta has 3.6x more days ≥ 35OC than Sydney CBD
Potential swimming sites
1 Lake Parramatta 7 Rhodes East 13 Bayview Park
2 Little Coogee 8 Putney Park 14 Henley Baths
3 Parramatta CBD 9 Brays Bay 15 Chiswick Baths
4 MacArthur St Bridge 10 Kissing Point Park 16 Callan Park
5 Wilson Park 11 Cabarita Beach 17 Dawn Fraser Pool
6 Meadowbank 12 Quarantine Reserve
Thanks!
Design and application of a staged climate change risk assessment process in CoastAdapt tool Fahim Tonmoy, PhD Coastal Zone Specialist, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), Griffith University [email protected]; @fahimnawroz
3 phase
risk assessment process of CoastAdapt
Development
Application
North Queensland Airport Cairns Airport Mackay Airport
www.coastadapt.com.au
Scenario modelling for impact assessment
TCs within 50 km of Cairns
100 years – 12 storms
One category 4 cyclone at
closest approach
ECEP Southern Hemisphere Workshop – February 2017
Stochastic catalogues – 100 years of synthetic TCs
100 years of synthetic TCs – 20 pass within 50 km of Cairns
2 category 4/5 TCs pass within 50 km of Cairns
Same probability, different outcome
ECEP Southern Hemisphere Workshop – February 2017
Impact – putting it all together
ECEP Southern Hemisphere Workshop – February 2017
27,813 $1,354mn 14,688 $725mn 16,645 $446mn
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Climate models as risk assessment tools
Kevin Walsh
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
ECEP Southern Hemisphere Workshop 13-14 February 2017
Can climate models be used for risk assessment?
(Current climate focus in this talk)
Obstacles to risk assessment:
• Low horizontal resolution (gradually being addressed – a number of long runs at ~40 km resolution or better; experimental ones even higher resolution)
• Incomplete understanding of some crucial physics (e.g.
precipitation)
NOAA
Climate models of tropical cyclones
High horizontal resolution (~50 km or thereabouts) climate model simulations of tropical cyclones (e.g. Hurricane Working Group; Walsh et al., 2015, BAMS)
Long (multi-millenial) climate simulations of factors favourable for TC formation
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = |105𝜂𝜂|32 �
𝐻𝐻50�
3
�𝑉𝑉𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝70
�3
(1 + 0.1𝑉𝑉𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 )−2
Interannual variation of different genesis parameters over the North Atlantic (courtesy Sally Lavender CSIRO)
Genesis parameter
Exploring extra-tropical transition with hybrid
idealised models
Claire Krause1, Craig Arthur1,
Cindy Bruyere2
1 Geoscience Australia, Canberra ACT,
Australia
2 NCAR, Boulder Co, USA
Hybrid WRF Cyclone Model
Transition of tropical cyclones off the west coast of Australia
wind forcing
Developed by Cindy Bruyere at NCAR
Results – so far
Transition of tropical cyclones off the west coast of Australia
Forcing: Southerly, 8 m/s + +
Climate Change Adaptation in Industry
Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership Workshop – 13th February 2017
Guy Edgar
Page 2 Copyright © 2016 Ernst & Young Australia. All Rights Reserved. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation
Time to press the accelerator
Short term thinking (not my issue the climate is variable)
Long term thinking (we have time /no rush – put off later)
Its not material on the corporate risk register
Little to no understanding of the climate resilience of Key
Interdependents
Lack of Traction
Most organisations already consider climate in their decisions - its just not
recognised as such
Unless it has full board/executive support its
difficult to imbed
It can be a difficult topic to engage on (mixed opinion
and knowledge) – especially with supply chain
Embedding
Seasonal and short term forecasts are getting more
accurate and can be supported by decision tools
Event Analysis and training is undertaken poorly
Knowledge hubs (industry based) to collect new
technology and scientific scenarios
Approaches
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12 member ensemble● Australia (50km), SE Aus (10km)● Surface variables hourly● Atmospheric variables 3-hourly● Time slices
● 1990-2010● 2020-2030● 2060-2080
Jason [email protected]
+ many others...
https://climatedata.environment.nsw.gov.au/
http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/
Future Extremes2070 minus 2000
Maximum 1-day precipitationHeatwaves
East Coast LowsProbabilistic Projections
Evans JP, Argueso D, Olson R, Luca AD (2016) Bias-corrected regional climate projections of extreme rainfall in south-east Australia. Theor Appl Climatol 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s00704-016-1949-9
Olson R, Fan Y, Evans JP (2016) A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures. Geophys Res Lett 43:7661–7669. doi: 10.1002/2016GL069704
Walsh K, White CJ, McInnes K, et al (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail. Climatic Change 139:55–67. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1737-7
Southern Hemisphere ECEP Workshop
Building back better
Jo Beadle, Director, Resilience and Recovery
Simon Dorrington, Policy Program Manager, Projects
13 February 2017
Commercial in Confidence
Queensland Betterment fund
• 232 projects • $150m cost including $80m Betterment • 95% of the 77 completed projects that were
impacted withstood further events • $27 million investment has saved $42 million
2013 Queensland Betterment Fund:
2015 Queensland Betterment Fund:
Since December 2015: • 30 Betterment projects impacted by 3 events • Combined restoration value – $21m • In 2016, 97% fully functional within 72 hours • Avoided costs of $22m
• 63 Projects • $20 million joint State/Commonwealth funding
Commercial in Confidence
Queensland Betterment fund
2011 Queensland Floods and Tropical Cyclones Anthony and Tasha and damage arising from Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
North Burnett Regional Council – Gayndah Mundubbera Road 2013 Flooding caused by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald
2014 Completed Betterment project 2015
Road re-opened within three hours of the flood waters receding, following clean- up and debris removal.
Betterment - $1.3 million Restoration - $6.7 million
Catastrophe: An Extreme West Coast Bush Fire Scenario
Are there engineering solutions possible?
Dr Bruce Buckley IAG CFO Natural Perils
February 2017
• Page 2
the RGB breakdowns
• 20% of Perth houses in bush
fire prone land + 4000 new
houses/year.
• Only 1 in 2 households
prepared for bush fire (DFES
2016).
Perth & the Lower SW – A Fire Prone Environment
00.00.2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Forest Fire Spread (Km/hr)
Forest Fire Spread (Km/hr)
Ash Wednesday
Perth Cyclone
• Page 3
the RGB breakdowns • Gusts Perth City 130 km/h, Fremantle 143
km/h, Albany 150 km/h.
• Fremantle: 7 hr>70km/h, >90 km/h for 4hr.
A fast moving Category 2 cyclone past Perth
TC Alby 4 April 1978
00.00.2016
• Page 4
the RGB breakdowns
Category 3 past Perth. Max ~45oC, Winds ~125 km/h, gusts ~200 km/h
The Worst Case Bush Fire: West Coast Cyclone
25,000+ houses destroyed by fire. 1.5 Million with no power, water, sewerage
for weeks.
400,000 houses damaged by wind- max gusts 40 km/h+ above building code.
50,000 livestock killed.
