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Managed Lanes: The Fitch Approach
Saavan Gatfield, Senior Director
1
www.fitchratings.com 7/2/14
HOT Lanes Getting Hotter
As of 4/27/14 Sources: HNTB Corporation; GAO analysis of USDOT, state departments of transportation; and local authorities’ information
Priced Managed Lanes Across the United States
2
www.fitchratings.com
Policies Matter
7/2/14
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
I-35WMinneapolis,
MN
I-394Minneapolis,
MN
I-25 Denver,CO
I-15 SanDiego, CA
I-10 Houston,TX
I-95 Miami,FL
SR-91Orange
County, CA
Operating Managed Lanes
Annual Toll Revenue and Operating Cost
Annual Revenues (Millions) Annual Operating Costs (Millions)
Hov 3+
Hov 2+
Source: FHWA Managed Lanes Handbook
3
www.fitchratings.com
Low Average Time Savings Observed
7/2/14
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
0
1
2
3
4
12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM
Minutes Saved
I-95 Northbound Travel Time and Tolls (2012)
Minute Saved Typical Price
Source: FDOT
4
www.fitchratings.com
ML Volume Volatile, Even in Congested Corridor
7/2/14
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Percentage Change Global ADT General Purpose ADT SR 91 ADT
91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic
Source: OCTA
5
www.fitchratings.com
Evolution of ML Traffic
7/2/14
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM
Average Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour (VPLPH) 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013
Source: FDOT
95 Express Lanes – Northbound Annual ML Traffic by Hour
6
www.fitchratings.com
Change in Toll Rates
7/2/14
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM
Typical Toll Rate 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013
95 Express – Northbound Annual Typical Toll Rate by Hour
Source: FDOT
7
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Volume to Capacity and Toll Price Affect Capture Rate
7/2/14
95 Express Lanes (FL) Northbound –2012
Source: FDOT
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM
Volume/ GP Capacity Capture Rate Typical Toll/ Mile
8
www.fitchratings.com
Understanding the Project
What? Why?
Where? When?
7/2/14
* Strength of service area
* Competing facilities?
* Connected locations
* Radial v circumferential?
* One/two directional traffic?
* Regional travel patterns
* Ingress / egress
* Lane barriers
9
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Understanding the Project
Where does it fit in the system? Who uses it? Why? When is it busy?
How Often? Who? What For?
7/2/14
10
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Understanding the Project
* 2012 data based on U.S. Department of Transportation’s (U.S. DOT) Traffic Volume Trends report. Previous years based on U.S. DOT Highway Statistics series of reports Source: US Department of Transportation
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1946
19
48
1950
19
52
1954
19
56
1958
19
60
1962
19
64
1966
19
68
1970
19
72
1974
19
76
1978
19
80
1982
19
84
1986
19
88
1990
19
92
1994
19
96
1998
20
00
2002
20
04
2006
20
08
2010
20
12*
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
VMT per capita Vehi
cle-
Mile
s Tr
avel
ed, U
.S. (
mill
ions
)
VM
T P
er C
apita
National Declining Per-Capita Driving Trend
7/2/14
Population Growth Critical
11
www.fitchratings.com
Understanding the Project
States with Highest Forecast Population Growth
Pop Increase
2000–2030 (mm) 2030
Pop (mm)
Annual Pop
Growth Rate 2000–2030
2030 Rank
1 Florida 12.7 28.7 2.0% 3 2 California 12.6 46.4 1.1% 1 3 Texas 12.5 33.3 1.6% 2 4 Arizona 5.6 10.7 2.5% 10 5 North Carolina 4.2 12.2 1.4% 7 6 Georgia 3.8 12.0 1.3% 8 7 Virginia 2.7 9.8 1.1% 12 8 Washington 2.7 8.6 1.3% 14 9 Nevada 2.3 4.3 2.6% 28
10 Maryland 1.7 7.0 0.9% 16 United States 82.2 363.6 0.9%
Source: United States Census Bureau, Fitch
Forecast Growth Focused in Few States
7/2/14
12
www.fitchratings.com
Understanding the Project
Growth Rank MSA
Employment (000s)
CAGR % 2013 2019 1 Orlando, FL 1,065 1,255 2.77%
2 Houston, TX 2,788 3,278 2.74%
3 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 1,226 1,431 2.60%
4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,090 3,602 2.58%
5 Phoenix, AZ 1,813 2,112 2.58%
6 Denver, CO 1,294 1,499 2.48% 7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,349 2,666 2.13% 8 Portland, OR-WA 1,037 1,174 2.09%
9 Atlanta, GA 2,405 2,722 2.09%
10 Tampa- St. Petersburg, FL 1,177 1,331 2.07%
Top 10 MSAs by Employment Growth Forecast 2012–18
Source: Global Insights Note: Data has been sorted to exclude MSAs with total employment less than 1 million 2012
7/2/14
13
www.fitchratings.com
Benchmarking & Stress Testing
Is Traffic Forecasting Rocket Science? Source: NASA
7/2/14
14
www.fitchratings.com
Benchmarking & Stress Testing
All Models Are Different!
Source: NASA Source: NASA
7/2/14
15
www.fitchratings.com
Benchmarking & Stress Testing
$0.40–$0.70 — Strong $0.30–$0.50 — Moderate $0.20–$0.40 — Weak
Service Area
Peak Toll: Opening Year (Average per Mile, 2014$)
Indicative Sensitivities
7/2/14
16
www.fitchratings.com
Benchmarking & Stress Testing
Revenue CAGR
5.0–7.0% — Strong 4.0–6.0% — Moderate 3.0–5.0% — Weak
Service Area
Indicative Sensitivities
7/2/14
17
www.fitchratings.com
People in pursuit of answers
7/2/14
18
www.fitchratings.com 7/2/14
Disclaimer
Fitch Ratings’ credit ratings rely on factual information received from issuers and other sources. Fitch Ratings cannot ensure that all such information will be accurate and complete. Further, ratings are inherently forward-looking, embody assumptions and predictions that by their nature cannot be verified as facts, and can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating was issued or affirmed.
The information in this presentation is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty. A Fitch Ratings credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security and does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. A Fitch Ratings report is not a substitute for information provided to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with a sale of securities.
Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch Ratings. The agency does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM.
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