Managing disaster response through mobile Middle East and ......GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster...

Managing disaster response through mobileMiddle East and North Africa

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This report was authored by Henry James, Mobile Ecosystem Specialist

The GSMA Disaster Response Programme works with mobile network operators, humanitarian organisations, governments, NGOs and the broader mobile ecosystem on a national, regional and global basis to drive the creation and adoption of coordinated, impactful solutions and practices that leverage the ubiquity of the mobile technology under the umbrella of the Humanitarian Connectivity Charter. The Charter represents a set of shared principles adopted by members of the mobile industry to support improved access to communication and information for those affected by crisis in order to reduce the loss of life and to positively contribute to humanitarian response.

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This initiative is funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID), and supported by the GSMA and its members.

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GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2. MENA mobile market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3. Disaster response in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.1 Mobile money in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.2 Innovative services in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4. Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.1 Mobile market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.2 Disaster profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.3 Mobile money snapshot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

5. Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 5.1 Mobile market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 5.2 Disaster profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 5.3 Mobile money snapshot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14


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1. Introduction

Mobile networks and the connectivity they provide can be a lifeline for those affected by natural disasters and other humanitarian emergencies. They are vital to facilitating access to information and coordinating assistance within affected populations and among governments, first responders and the international humanitarian community.

In March 2015, the GSMA launched the Humanitarian Connectivity Charter to support the mobile industry in improving preparedness and resilience. The charter consists of a set of shared principles adopted by key players in the mobile industry, and endorsed by key humanitarian organisations, to support improved access to communication and information for those affected by crisis in order to reduce the loss of life and positively contribute to humanitarian response.

The principles of the Humanitarian Connectivity Charter are:

• to enhance coordination within and among mobile network operators before, during and after a disaster

• to scale and standardise preparedness and response activities across the industry to enable a more predictable response

• to strengthen partnerships between the mobile industry, government and the humanitarian sector.

To date, over 100 MNOs operating in more than 75 countries have committed to these principles. Charter engagement will be based in four key regions where the majority of these signatories operate: Asia Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

This report is part of a series focusing on these regions. The report provides an overview of the MENA mobile market, the disaster risk landscape and examples of the innovative solutions being developed by the industry. As well as a regional overview, this report focuses on two markets; Iraq and Yemen. These countries have been selected as examples due to their disaster risk profiles.


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Population coveragePopulation

Unique subscribers Smartphone adoptionMobile internet subscribers

Connections Excluding M2M

��2015

60%

38%

2%

��34%

50%

16%

2020

2G 3G 4G

Operators continue to invest in 4G network build-outs and subscribers migrate to higher speed networks

2015

485m2020

527m38%Rural

3G

4G

87%

90%2015

2020

2015

2020

22%

49%

106%

113%

2015 2020

Penetration rate2015

513m

2020598m

2015–2020

CAGR3.1%

2015

277m2020

322mPenetration rate

57%

61%

2015

2020

2015–2020

CAGR6.4%

2015–2020

CAGR12.2%

2015

173m

Majority of internet subscribers on 3G/4GAround 45 million new subscribers by 2020

2020

256mPenetration rate

36%

49%

2015

2020

2015

37%2020

65%�

�

61%

77%

Mobilebroadband*

Mobilebroadband

*3G and 4G

of connections

2. MENA mobile market

GSMA Intelligence


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3. Disaster response in MENA

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has suffered considerable political upheaval over the last decade. Ongoing disputes in countries such as Iraq, Yemen and Syria have led to mass migration as civilians flee conflict zones. Of the 10 countries with the highest number of displaced citizens in 2015, four were in the MENA region.

11.7

7.3

4.12.6 2.4 2.3 2.2

4.9

2.63.9

DRCSomaliaNigeriaYemenSouth SudanSudanAfghanistanIraqColombiaSyria

Figure 1: Top 10 countries for displaced populations (million) in 2015 Source: UNHCR

The ongoing civil war in Syria led to the displacement of 11.7 million citizens in 2015, with a further 400,000 estimated to have died since the conflict began in 2011. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the resulting instability led to the displacement of 4.9 million citizens in 2015, with estimated deaths since 2011 potentially as high as 1 million. In Sudan, the continued civil war between the government and rebel forces led to the displacement of almost 4 million citizens in 2015. In Yemen, the ongoing civil war has led to the displacement of 2.6 million citizens, and an estimated 6,500 people have died in the conflict.

The consequences of ongoing conflicts across the MENA region are magnified by widespread poverty, lack of basic infastructure and the limited food security experienced in many of these countries. The Index for Risk Management (INFORM) reflects these challenges. It identifies countries at risk from humanitarian crises and disasters that could overwhelm national response capacity. It comprises three dimensions: hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. Of the 15 countries considered most at risk, five are in MENA (Yemen, Sudan, Iraq, Syria and Libya).


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Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Cyprus

LebanonPalestineIsrael

Georgia

Armenia

Yemen

Oman

Jordan

UAE

Azerbaijan

Kuwait

Bahrain

QatarLibya Egypt

Turkey

SaudiArabia

Iraq

Syria

Sudan

0.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 6.5 10.0

Figure 2: Disaster risk by country: MENASource: INFORM

Natural disasters pose less of a hazard in MENA than in regions such as Asia Pacific. According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2016, none of the 10 most at-risk countries are in MENA. One country of note here is Sudan, which suffers annual droughts that both exacerbate political conflict and magnify the problems faced by refugees. The drought in 2011 was considered to be one of the worst in decades, with the UN declaring a state of famine in the region and tens of thousands believed to have died. The famine is understood to have been an aggravating factor in the country’s political conflicts. Figure 3 shows the frequency of natural disasters across the region.

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Figure 3: Frequency of natural disasters in MENASource: EM-DAT


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3.1 Mobile money in MENA

Levels of financial access vary widely across the MENA region. In countries such as UAE and Bahrain, more than 80% of the population have accounts with financial institutions. This falls to less than 10% in countries such as Yemen, Egypt and Sudan. Mobile money has the potential to help vulnerable or transient groups in MENA. Migrant workers account for a large segment of the population in the Gulf; in the UAE they represent more than 80% of residents. The refugee crisis also continues to grow, with 8.7 million predicted to be internally displaced in 2016 in Syria alone. Such groups are ideally placed to benefit from mobile money services with access to traditional financial services particularly challenging.

Regulation in the region is evolving to encourage the use of mobile money services. In Tunisia and Morocco, for example, the new banking laws allow mobile operators to apply for a licence to provide mobile money services directly, without relying on partnerships with regulated financial institutions such as banks or post offices.

live mobile money services across 18 countries in MENA21

The first mobile money service to launch in the region was Etisalat Mobile Commerce in UAE, launched by Etisalat in 2009

5.5 millionregistered accounts as of December 2015, an increase of 53% from 2014

63%of transactions were bill payments, while P2P transfers accounted for 47% of total transactions value in 2015


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3.2 Innovative services in MENA

Mobile operators have launched services across the region that enable them and their customers to improve their preparedness and response to disasters.

Turkey

• Turkcell has implemented a series of policies aimed at supporting its subscribers affected by earthquakes. Programmes such as Reach Me and the Earthquake Information Service help to disseminate information in case of disaster and help subscribers contact and locate their loved ones. For subscribers affected by earthquakes while roaming, Turkcell identifies and locates those in affected areas and ensures they receive free calls and SMS and that suspended accounts are reactivated. Turkcell will also call affected subscribers to establish their wellbeing.

• Turkcell has developed a Business Continuity Management (BCM) app to aid its employees across the Turkcell group. The app is designed to work offline and includes tools for disaster notification, emergency contact mechanisms and a library of processes and information for disasters. Users are notified about disasters in Turkey and elsewhere via notifications from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) and the National Center for Monitoring Earthquakes (NCME) in Turkey. An emergency IVR/SMS tool can send messages to the internal emergency services, and a call chain function allows for automated communications with specified contacts. The app also contains a library of all Turkcell’s functional disaster plans.

• Turkcell has launched an app called Merhaba Umut (“Hello Hope”) to help facilitate the integration of Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The app has a Turkish language learning component as well as instant audio translation between Turkish and Arabic. Turkcell also operates Turkey’s first bilingual operator call centre, serving customers in both Arabic and Turkish.

Jordan

• Zain Group has instigated a programme to provide free Wi-Fi to refugees across Jordan. The programme is run in partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and Facebook. By placing Wi-Fi hotspots in refugee centers, the programme helps expand the influence, value and utility of services offered at these locations.

Iraq

• In Iraq, several operators, including Zain Iraq, AsiaCell and Korek, have collaborated to launch a national hotline for internally displaced Iraqi citizens. Staffed by the UN, the call centre helps identify and respond to the most urgent needs of the displaced, while providing a single contact point for the many disparate humanitarian relief programmes across the country.


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Cross-border programmes

• The REFUNITE platform is designed to help refugees trace their loved ones. It is the largest of its kind with more than 560,000 profiles in its database and is active across the MENA region. The database, accessible to subscribers of operators that have joined the partnership, allows displaced individuals to securely and privately identify potential matches with missing family and friends also signed up to the programme. It is supported by Ericsson and has partnerships with the United Nations and a number of operators including AsiaCell, Three, MTN, Safaricom, Vodacom, Zain, Etisalat, Avea and Smart.

• Mobile operators across the region have launched tariffs aimed specifically at refugees. Examples include the Al Tawasol tariff launched by Touch in Lebanon in response to the influx of Syrian refugees. The prepaid tariff includes SMS and call time to Syria in addition to local allowances.

• Deutsche Telekom has launched a series of initiatives to help refugees from the MENA region integrate into German society. Focusing primarily on helping refuges find employment, the operator has launched a recruitment platform and provides training sessions and internships. The operator is also supporting language courses across the country for refugees keen to learn German.


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4. Iraq

4.1 Mobile market

Since the invasion of 2003, Iraq has suffered continued conflict and political instability, making it a challenging place for mobile operators to function. As a result, the mobile sector has struggled to develop. Subscriber penetration is currently at just 49%, with nearly two thirds of subscribers on 2G.

Iraq currently has five active mobile operators, Asiacell (36% market share), Fastlink (2%), Korek Telecom (22%), Mobitel (3%) and Zain (37%). All five offer 2G and 3G services but Fastlink is the only operator to offer 4G services, limited to the Kurdistan region.

Despite investment in 3G services and population coverage of around 95%, uptake has also been slow, with market penetration estimated at just 20%. Uptake of 4G services has been even slower; coverage is limited to Kurdistan and market penetration is estimated at less than 1%. Iraq has a heavily prepaid market, with only 4% of connections on contract. As a result of the limited 3G and 4G uptake and a predominantly prepaid client base, ARPU in Iraq currently stands at $12.76, compared to the global average of $23.30.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Connectionspenetration

Subscriberpenetration

Mobile internetpenetration

Smartphoneadoption

20202019201820172016201520142013

Figure 4: Iraq mobile marketSource: GSMA IntelligenceNote: penetration measured as a percentage of population; smartphone adoption measured as percentage of connections

4.2 Disaster profile

Iraq has a risk rating of 7.1 according to the INFORM index, the second highest in the region and equal to Sudan. Since 2014 internal conflict has worsened and the number of displaced citizens has increased. Iraq now has the third largest population of internally displaced people in the world, with 3.2 million displaced in the country since January 2014. This is in addition to the 1 million people still displaced since the 2006–2008 conflict. The government’s capacity to provide services to citizens is limited and has been challenged


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by the decline in oil prices and the escalating crisis. Many citizens have moved to the Kurdistan region, which is also host to nearly 97% of the 250,500 Syrian refugees in the country. The total population considered to be of concern by UNHCR is anticipated to rise to 4.1 million during 2016.

Natural disasters are not a major hazard in Iraq; the country has suffered 12 natural disasters in the past 30 years, with an average of three people dying due to natural disaster per year.1 One exception of note was a period of flooding in October 2015 which led the government to declare a state of emergency, with an estimated 86,000 people affected.

4.3 Mobile money snapshot

There are two live mobile money services in Iraq:

• Zain Cash is offered by Iraq Wallet, which is an authorised company from the Central Bank of Iraq. With Zain Cash, customers can have a mobile money account linked to their SIM card, enabling them to carry out financial transactions. The service was soft launched in January 2016, with a full rollout in February 2016.

• Asia Hawala is a mobile money service launched by Asiacell, a subsidiary of Ooredoo, in December 2015. The service is run in conjunction with the Central Bank of Iraq and was developed by Mahindra Comviva. Users can register with Asia Hawala and open a mobile money account on their existing SIM cards. They can then deposit cash into this account and use it for all their daily transactions in the form of mobile money.

1 Source: Support To Life

unbanked adult population in 201488%

marked the first mobile money service launched in Iraq, but this was closed by the regulator (re-launched in 2015)

2010


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5. Yemen

5.1 Mobile market

Yemen has suffered severe political unrest since 2011; as a result, investment in the mobile sector has been limited during this period. Much of the existing telecoms infrastructure is reported to have been damaged, though to what extent is unclear due to a lack of data. Yemen has the lowest GDP per capita of any country in MENA, at just $1,275. It is estimated that more than 80% of the population are in need of humanitarian aid.

Yemen currently has four active mobile operators: MTN (32% market share), Sabafon (23%), Yemen Mobile (32%) and Y (13%). All four offer 2G services but only Yemen Mobile offers 3G services. There are currently no LTE services in Yemen. ARPU is currently at $4.91, the lowest in MENA and significantly lower than the regional average of $23.30.

Connectionspenetration

Subscriberpenetration

Mobile internetpenetration

Smartphoneadoption

202020192018201720162015201420130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Figure 5: Yemen mobile marketSource: GSMA IntelligenceNote: penetration measured as a percentage of population; smartphone adoption measured as percentage of connections

5.2 Disaster profile

Yemen has a risk rating of 7.5 according to the INFORM Index, the highest in MENA. In 2004 a Zaidi group known as the Houthis began a campaign of terrorist actions. Fighting culminated In January 2015 when the Houthis seized control of the presidential palace and President Hadi’s residence forcing the mass resignation of Hadi and his ministers. The Houthis have dissolved parliament and installed a Supreme Revolutionary Committee, while President Hadi is in exile in Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda forces are also present in Yemen, notably in the southeastern city of Mukalla. Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia has been leading coalition airstrikes against Houthi and pro-Saleh targets in Yemen in response to a request for support from Hadi. Fighting continues across the country, which has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and damaged key infrastructure. Since the start of the conflict, more than 122,000 individuals have fled Yemen to neighbouring countries while 2.3 million people have been


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displaced internally. It is estimated that 80% of the overall population need humanitarian aid.In recent years Yemen has become increasingly prone to flooding with notable problems in 1996, 2008 and 2015. The effects of these natural disasters are amplified by the limited infrastructure and accessibility.

5.3 Mobile money snapshot

• In December 2015, the central bank issued a new set of regulations covering e-money and mobile banking, with support from the World Bank and international aid organisations. The regulations provide more flexibility for mobile payment services, though regulations require a partnership with a licensed bank.

• So far, only one institution is reported to have completed an application for a licence, Alkuraimi Islamic Microfinance Bank, a US-based microfinance programme. However, it is believed that Alkuraimi Islamic Microfinance Bank has suspended operations due to the ongoing conflict.

of population unbanked in 201494% of bank branches have

closed as a result of the ongoing war1/3

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