T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19
Managingtimetable risks
Agenda.
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1. Railway Timetable in Switzerland2. Managing Timetable Risks3. Outline of Future Projects
Swiss Railway Network
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The swiss rail market.
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Total Swiss railway networkTotal Swiss railway network
Standardgauge3 800 km
Narrow gauge1 765.0 km
SBB: 3 230 km*SBB: 3 230 km*
BLS: 434 kmBLS: 434 km
SOB: 123 kmSOB: 123 km
3 RU: 21 – 50 km each3 RU: 21 – 50 km each
5 RU < 10 km each5 RU < 10 km each
Railway undertakingsRailway undertakingsPath allocationPath allocation
34 RU (without tramways)34 RU (without tramways)
Each railwaycompany withseparate in-house pathallocation
Each railwaycompany withseparate in-house pathallocation
Passenger operators 17 RUPassenger operators 17 RU
Freight operators 22 RUFreight operators 22 RU
RU for worksite orwith historicalrolling stock 9 RU
RU for worksite orwith historicalrolling stock 9 RU
4 RU 10 – 20 km each4 RU 10 – 20 km each
81%
11%
3%
RU figures of 2016
*incl. Thurbo, Sensetalbahn, port railways of Switzerland, Vevey-Chexbres and Courtemaîche-Bure; operated by SBB
Yearly train path allocation process
SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 5Source:https://www.trasse.ch/file/2%20Trassennutzung/2.5%20Überlasteterklärung/2.5.1%20Simplon%202020/190514_Kapazitaetsanalyse_Brig_Iselle_2020_DE.pdf
Railway Timetable
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Ú A Timetable (Schedule) defines for public transport (and for freight)the run of each mean of transport.(A timetable defines when will be each mean of transport at whichstations.)
Ú The aim of a timetable is to ensure that all means of transport have a„green wave“ and can run without delay.
Time-distance diagramOnline-Timetable
Train DriverTimetable
Network graphic
Swiss Timetable «Layers» of mixed traffic
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Timetable: long term planning
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Timetable: middle term planning
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Timetable: “short” term planning
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Basic elements of a timetable
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Offer
InfrastructureRolling Stock
Construction of a timetable
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Ú Define the routing of the trainÚ Define the rolling stock for the trainÚ Define the stopping point of the trainÚ Define the dwelling time of the train
(considering connections)Ú Calculate the minimal running time
of the train and add time marginÚ Place the train on the timeline so that
no conflicts occurs with other trains(if needed locally reroute oradd/subtract some time margin)
Agenda.
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1. The Timetable in Switzerland(Mixed Traffic, fixed Timeline, many years in advance, based on know how)
2. Managing Timetable Risks3. Outline of Future Projects
Punctuality limit is set at 180 seconds
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Punctual trains Delayed trains
Limit at 3 min
SBB Transport Nodal Points. «As fast as needed».
SBB operates a yearly fixed cyclic timetable
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Arrival at Bern at minute HH:56
4 min dwelling time is fixed forevery hour and every day
BERN
Departure from Bern at minute HH:00
SBB operates a yearly fixed cyclic timetable
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Hourly variations of departure delay
18SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19
Tools for simulation and analysis
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Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production
Real Traffic Data
Education program for skilful planners
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Ú Stability analysis with OTTbefore education program
Ú Stability analysis with OTTafter education program
Timetableplanners(~200)
Experts
Use thecapacity
Analyzeof
network
Stabilizenetwork
Createcapacity
Continuous improvement process of the timetable
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Ú Key is to take in account the dynamic of the railway system
Tools for simulation and analysis
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Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production
Simulation of Traffic Real Traffic Data
Tools for simulation and analysis
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Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production
Simulation of TrafficPunctuality Forecast Real Traffic Data
Knock on Delay Analysisof single track Koblenz-Turgi
25
26
Situation of a day with5 [min] departure delay
27
28
1
2 3
29
3Connection
456
7
Infrastructure Improvementsingle track Koblenz-Turig
31
Network Wide Stochastic Analysis
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Stability assessment of future timetable
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PunctualityForecast 1
Primary Delays(Calibrated)
Timetable 1
PunctualityForecast 2
Primary Delays(Calibrated)
Timetable 2
X < -3%-3% < X < -1.5%-1.5% < X < 1.5%1.5% < X < 3%3% < X < 100%
Differences offorecasted punctuality
Riskmanagement for timetable
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Eintretensfälle proFahrplanjahr VP 15)
Eintretens-wahrscheinlich
keitRisikopotential nach Konzernmatrix
>3000 sehr gross 16 26 36 46 56 66
2001-3000 gross 15 25 35 45 55 65
1001-2000 mittel gross 14 24 34 44 54 64
101-1000 mittel 13 23 33 43 53 63
21-100 klein 12 22 32 42 52 62>0 und <20
oder nur an Tagen VP 67) sehr klein 11 21 31 41 51 61
Auswirkung sehr klein klein mittel mittel gross gross sehr gross
Risiko erzeugtZugsverspätung in
Minuten pro Fall
>0 und<3 Min
3 bis<5 Min
5 bis<7 Min
7 bis<10 Min
10 bis<15 Min ≥15 Min
To be controled once
To be continuously supervised Organize counter measures
Check possible counter measures
Riskmanagement for timetable
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Isolated cumulation of risks
Middle cumulation of risks
No cumulation of risks
High cumulation of risks
Agenda.
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1. The Timetable in Switzerland2. Managing Timetable Risks
(Based on real traffic data, simulations, punctuality forecast and know-how of planers)
3. Outline of Future Projects
TMS-PAS KapaPlan
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Goal Architecture of digitalization program smartrail 4.0Architecture, Concepts, Interfaces to be published and shared as open standards.
Track occupations by trains,persons, buildings sites,obstacles
Gatekeeper: small «ETCS interlocking for cab signalling»Gatekeeper: small «ETCS interlocking for cab signalling»
ETCS L3
Traffic Management System(«TMS»)
All business processes only on the «ITLayer» – basic and expensive«safety» systems only as «slimgatekeepers»
Traffic Management System(«TMS»)
All business processes only on the «ITLayer» – basic and expensive«safety» systems only as «slimgatekeepers»
Only points andbarriers, tracksideassets reduced byup to 70%Point Barrier
Shunting with cab signalling.
Modular vehiclearchitecture
Precise and automaticlocalisation (GLAT)
Control
Commercial Schedule
Routes and ShuntingRolling Stock
Construction SitesTrack Usage in Stations
DepotFuture Soon Now
Planning(long- and shortterm)
Very precise control of train movements and infrastructure(in „seconds and meters“), based on RCS.
Connectivity (high bandwidth)
ATO
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TMS KapaPlan: Automatized Construction of Timetable.
Today• Timetable is manually done• Planers have many rules to know• Ordering of the train is fixedà Planning and Steering are separated
Today• Timetable is manually done• Planers have many rules to know• Ordering of the train is fixedà Planning and Steering are separated
Tomorrow• Timetable made with capacity bands• System ensure feasibility• Timetable can change within bandsà Planning and Steering are integrated
Tomorrow• Timetable made with capacity bands• System ensure feasibility• Timetable can change within bandsà Planning and Steering are integrated
4141
Thank you for your attention.
