Mapping the interface of poverty, emerging

markets and zoonoses

EcoHealth Conference, Kunming China 2012

Delia Grace

International Livestock Research Institute

International Livestock Research Institute

700 full time staff-1000 total

100 scientists & researchers

54% from 22 developing

countries

more than 30 scientific

disciplines

2012 budget USD 60 million

ILRI works with a range of

research & development

partners

across 7 CGIAR research

programs

•a member of the CGIAR Consortium, ILRI conducts livestock, food and

environmental research

to help alleviate poverty

and improve food security, health & nutrition,

while protecting the natural resource base.

Mali

Nigeria

Mozambique

Kenya

Ethiopia

India

China

Laos

Vietnam

Thailand

Mapping poverty and zoonoses hotspots

• To present data and expert knowledge on

poverty and zoonoses hotspots

…….to prioritise study areas in emerging

livestock systems in the developing world,

……where prevention of zoonotic disease

might bring greatest benefit to poor people.

Commissioned by DFID

Methods

• Update global maps of poor livestock keeper

• Map rapidly emerging livestock systems

• Update map of emerging infectious diseases (Jones et al., Nature)

• Develop first global maps of priority zoonoses – Criteria based identification of most important

zoonoses

– Review official zoonoses reporting systems

– Systematic literature review of prevalence and burden in Africa and Asia

• One billion PLK depend on 19 billion livestock

• 4 countries have 44% of PLK

• 75% rural, 25% urban poor depend on livestock

• Typically 2-33% income

• Typically 6-36% protein

• Poultry in South and East Asia

• > poultry in South America

• > bovines in South and East Asia

• > poultry in sub Saharan Africa

• = pigs in sub Saharan Africa

• West USA & west Europe hotspots

• Last decade: S America & SE Asia

Top Zoonoses (multiple burdens)

• Assessed 56 zoonoses from 6 listings: responsible 2.7 billion cases, 2.5 million deaths

• “Unlucky 13” responsible for 2.2 billion illnesses and 2.4 million deaths

– All 13 have a wildlife interface

– 9 have a major impact on livestock

– All 13 amenable to on-farm intervention 0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Deaths - annual

Official reporting systems

Reporting system

Zoonoses Scope

WAHID 33 Animal

TAD Info 2 Animal

Pro Med All All

GLEWS 19 All

Health Map

All All

Africa • 253 million SLU • 25 million losses annually • Around ½ from notifiable disease • 80,000 reported == 99.8% un-reported

Systematic literature review

• Identify databases – PubMed, AJOL, CABDirect, Google

• Develop criteria, search algorithms

• Screen abstracts, retrieve papers, extract information

• Map data

• Embedded case-study to compare yield of databases with grey literature & library search

• Unlucky 13 zoonoses sicken 2.4 billion

people, kill 2.2 people and affect more

than 1 in 7 livestock each year

Greatest burden of endemic zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers

Impacts of zoonoses currently or in the last year

• 12% of animals have brucellosis, reducing production by 8%

• 10% of livestock in Africa have HAT, reducing their production by 15%

• 7% of livestock have TB, reducing their production by 6% and from 3-10% of human TB cases may be caused by zoonotic TB

• 17% of smallholder pigs have cysticercosis, reducing their value and creating the enormous burden of human cysticercosis

• 27% of livestock have bacterial food-borne disease, a major source of food contamination and illness in people

• 26% of livestock have leptospirosis reducing production and acting as a reservoir for infection

• 25% of livestock have Q fever, and are a major source of infection of farmers and consumers

Hotspots

• PLK: S. Asia 600 m, SSA 300 m

• LS intensification: India, Myan., Bang., Pak.,

• ZEID: W Europe, W USA

• Zoonoses: S. Asia > EC Africa

• BIG SIX – S Asia: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan

– Africa: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Congo

Conclusions

• Here and now burden of NZDs is much higher than EIDs

• ……..but EIDs in a pathogenic milieu can be civilisation altering

• There are opportunities for better linking research & management of EIDs and NZDs

• The high production burden of NZDs can be a lever for changing practice

Acknowledgements

Funding: DFID, UK

Research team

• Delia Grace, ILRI

• Russ Kruska, Consultant

• Kate Jones, Institute of Zoology

• Liam Brierley, Institute of Zoology

• Florence Mutua, ILRI

• Pamela Ochungo, ILRI

• Lucy Lapar, ILRI

• Mohamed Said, ILRI

• Mario Herrero, ILRI

• Pham Duc Phuc, Hanoi School of

Public Health, Vietnam

• Nguyen Bich Thao, Hanoi School of

Public Health, Vietnam

• Isaiah Akuku, ILRI intern

• Fred Ogutu, ILRI intern

Agriculture for improved nutrition and health

www.ilri.org